THE Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) annually

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1 35 Comparison of BEA Estimates of Income and IRS Estimates of Adjusted Gross Income New Estimates for 2005 Revised Estimates for 2004 By Mark Ledbetter THE Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) annually publishes a comparison of BEA s measure of and the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) measure of adjusted gross (AGI); both are widely used measures of household. This comparison features the, which is the difference between BEA-derived estimates of adjusted gross and the IRS estimate of adjusted gross. 1 (For more information, see Estimating the. ) Analysts use this comparison of and adjusted gross in a variety of ways. For example, because major changes in the tax law affect the 1. For more information about the source data and the methodologies that are used to prepare BEA-derived estimates of AGI and the, see Mark A. Ledbetter, Comparison of BEA Estimates of Income and IRS estimates of Adjusted Gross Income, SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS 84 (April 2004): IRS estimates of adjusted gross, the reconciliation tables are often used by analysts to convert adjusted gross into a consistent time series for budget and fiscal policy analyses or to extrapolate projections of adjusted gross. and adjusted gross are based on different concepts, and each is used for different purposes. Adjusted gross, the key measure of individual, is defined by the Internal Revenue Code, and the definition can change from year to year because of changes in the tax code. It is used as the basis for estimating tax revenues on a national and state level and for computing certain tax credits and itemized deductions on tax returns. BEA s estimate is a more comprehensive measure than the IRS AGI measure. The and outlay account records the distribution of Key Terms Adjusted gross (AGI), for Federal tax tual measure of adjusted gross without taxpayer purposes, includes all that is received in the form misreporting. It is based on IRS tabulations of data from of money, property, and services and that is not explicitly individual tax returns, corporate tax exempt by law. returns, nonfarm sole proprietorship tax returns, is the received by individuals, partnership tax returns, and extrapolated estinonprofit institutions serving households, private nonin- mates for tax-exempt and for private foundation sured welfare funds, and private trust funds from all. sources. It includes that is taxed, that is partly The is the difference between the BEA-derived taxed (such as security benefit payments), and that adjusted gross and IRS adjusted gross. is tax-exempt (such as tax-exempt, nontaxable The for each type of is the difference transfer payments, and Medicare, Medicaid, and welfare between the BEA-derived adjusted gross for that benefit payments). It is the sum of of type of and the reallocated IRS adjusted gross employees (received), proprietors, rental., receipts on assets, and The relative for each type of shows current transfer receipts; contributions for government the by type of as a percentage of the insurance is subtracted. includes BEA-derived adjusted gross by type of. imputed, but it excludes net gains from the sale Misreporting adjustments are adjustments to IRS of assets (capital gains), pension benefit payments, and source data that are designed to correct for the effects of employee and self-employed contributions for govern- taxpayer misreporting in the tax return tabulations and ment insurance. For more information about per- economic census data used in the NIPAs. These adjustsonal, see < ments account for that is underreported on tax spi2005/>. returns and for the that is earned by individuals BEA-derived adjusted gross is BEA s concep- who do not file tax returns.

2 36 BEA Income and IRS Adjusted Gross Income November 2007 to the household sector and measures its value and composition in the national economy. It represents a component of a sequence of interconnected, macroeconomic flow accounts that is often used to examine trends in national economic activity because its definition is consistent through all the years measured. The components of and adjusted gross are similar. The major differences are that consists of both taxable and tax-exempt and that adjusted gross consists only of taxable. also includes other items, such as misreporting adjustments, imputed, of nonprofit institutions serving households, the investment of insurance carriers, and employer contributions for government insurance. Highlights of the estimates include the following: The total increased $188.3 billion, from $1,097.6 billion in 2004 to $1,285.9 billion in The relative increased 0.8 percent, from 8.1 percent in 2004 to 8.9 percent in The was revised up $9.4 billion for The for 2005 The total for 2005 the most recent year for which AGI data are available was $1,285.9 billion (table 1). The misreporting adjustment, which adjusts the IRS data for underreported and unreported, accounts for $507.9 billion of the gap. For the remaining $778.0 billion, the less misreporting adjustment, precise explanations are not easily identifiable. For more information, see the section Misreporting adjustments and the. The relative the gap as a percentage of BEA-derived adjusted gross was 14.8 percent. The relative less misreporting adjustment the gap less the misreporting adjustment as a percentage of BEA-derived adjusted gross was 8.9 percent. BEA also calculates the by type of (tables 1 4). For each type of, the unexplained portion of the can be calculated by subtracting the misreporting adjustment from the corresponding estimate. The less misreporting adjustment by type of is only calculated for wage and salary, nonfarm proprietors, rental, and (tables 1, 2, and 5). Revisions to the for 2004 The for 2004 was revised up $9.4 billion to $1,097.6 billion (table A and table 2). The relative AGI gap for 2004 was revised to 13.9 percent from 13.8 percent. Because IRS adjusted gross for 2004 was unrevised, the entire revision to the 2004 is accounted for by a revision to BEA-derived adjusted gross. The upward revision to BEA-derived adjusted gross reflects a $4.2 billion downward revision to BEA s, a $21.3 billion downward revision to items included in but not in adjusted gross, and a $7.7 billion downward revision to items included in adjusted gross but not in. Table A. Sources of Revision to the Adjusted Gross Income (AGI) Gap for 2004 Line Less: Portion of not included in AGI Nontaxable transfer payments Employer contributions for employee pension and insurance funds Imputed in Investment of life insurance carriers and pension plans... Investment received by nonprofit institutions and retained by fiduciaries... Differences in accounting treatment between NIPAs and tax regulations, net Other exempt or excluded from AGI Plus: Portion of AGI not included in Contributions for government insurance Net gain from sale of assets pensions Small business corporation Other types of Equals: BEA-derived AGI IRS AGI Relative Line numbers in this table correspond to those in table 2. NIPAs National and product accounts The revision to BEA-derived adjusted gross can also be viewed as the sum of revisions to the following: BEA data ($12.6 billion), IRS data that underlie estimates of BEA-derived adjusted gross but not IRS adjusted gross ( $6.6 billion), and data that are derived independently of both BEA and IRS adjusted gross ($3.3 billion) (table B). All revisions to estimates of the reconciliation items that are prepared independently of and of adjusted gross carry through to BEAderived adjusted gross. 2 (These estimates are derived from source data that are not used to prepare estimates of or adjusted gross.) Revisions to the components of adjusted gross (parts of lines 9, 12, 14, and 15 in table 1) also carry through to BEA-derived adjusted gross. 2. Carry through is used to describe a revision to a reconciliation item in or in adjusted gross that results in a revision to the. The revision to a reconciliation item in one measure of that is not offset by an identical revision to the other measure of is said to carry through to the.

3 SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS 37 Misreporting adjustments and the The misreporting adjustment is a measure of that is not reported on tax returns and is added to reported in BEA s estimation of. The misreporting adjustment comprises a filer adjustment, which measures the amount of that is underreported on tax returns, and a nonfiler adjustment, which measures the amount of earned by tax return nonfilers. The nonfiler adjustment includes both the of those not legally required to file tax returns and the of those who are required to file tax returns. 3 Table B. Revisions That Carry Through to BEA-Derived Adjusted Gross Income (AGI) Gap Revisions to the BEA-derived... Due to revisions to Contributions for government insurance... Less: Employer contributions to pension and insurance funds... Imputed included in... Gain on internal revenue code section 1231 assets... Inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments... Nonfarm proprietors... Excess farm inventories... Small business corporation s in... Due to revisions to AGI components... Net gain from sale of assets... Small business corporation... Miscellaneous components... Due to revisions to reconciliation items with source data unrelated to or AGI... pensions... Less: Nontaxable current transfer receipts... Investment retained by life insurance carriers and pensions plans... Fiduciary... Nonprofit... IRA-Keogh excluding capital gain... Exempt military pay... Tax-exempt... Other miscellaneous items... IRA Individual retirement account For 2005, filer adjustments accounted for 91 percent of the total misreporting adjustment, 89 percent of the wage and salary misreporting adjustment, about 93 percent of the nonfarm proprietorship misreporting adjustment, and 100 percent of the rental and misreporting adjustment. For 2005, the non filer adjustment accounted for 9 percent of the total misreporting adjustment, 11 percent of the wage and salary misreporting adjustment, and about 7 percent of the nonfarm proprietorship misreporting adjustment. The less misreporting adjustment is the gap between and AGI after all known and measurable statistical and definitional differences are accounted for. The remaining difference results from known definitional differences that cannot be estimated, statistical discrepancies, data sampling and nonsampling errors, use of different source data for AGI and for, incomplete source data, timing anomalies, and other unknown factors. The less misreporting adjustment is not a proper measure of noncompliance, because it contains immeasurable sources of tax-exempt and other discrepancies previously mentioned. Estimating the The by type of is estimated in three steps. First, an estimate of BEA-derived adjusted gross is prepared by adjusting the estimates of BEA to conform to the IRS definition of adjusted gross. Certain types of are subtracted from because they are not included in adjusted gross (lines 3 9 in tables 1 and 2), and certain types of are added to to be consistent with adjusted gross (lines 11 15). Second, certain types of are reallocated so that BEA-derived estimates of adjusted gross by type of conform to the definitions of adjusted gross (lines 17 20). In addition, certain types of adjusted gross that are undefined in, such as estate and trust, are reallocated so that adjusted gross by type of conforms to the BEA-derived adjusted gross (lines 24 26). Third, the estimates of AGI reallocated (line 27) are subtracted from the estimates of BEA-derived adjusted gross (line 21) to yield an estimate of the (line 28). The relative (line 30) is the as a percentage of BEA-derived adjusted gross. 3. The Census Bureau s Exact Match Studies do not differentiate between the s of those required and not required to file tax returns. Taxpayers are required to file tax returns if their s are above the taxable threshold given their martial and filing status and age. Tables 1 through 5 follow.

4 38 BEA Income and IRS Adjusted Gross Income November 2007 Table 1. Comparison of Income With Adjusted Gross Income (AGI) by Type of Income for 2005 Line Wage and salary Proprietors Farm Nonfarm of persons with CCAdj Income receipts on assets pensions and security 1 Other 2 Income not included in , , ,018.9 ( 3 ) , Less: Portion of not included in AGI... 3, , Nontaxable transfer payments to persons... 1, , Employer contributions to pension and insurance funds Imputed in Investment retained by life insurance carriers and pensions 6 plans Investment received by nonprofit institutions and retained by fiduciaries Differences in accounting treatment between NIPAs and tax regulations, 8 net Other exempt or excluded from AGI ( 6 ) Plus: Portion of AGI not included in... 2, , Contributions for government insurance Net gain from sale of assets pensions Small business corporation Other types of Plus: Reallocation by type of NIPA Fiduciaries share of partnership Interest received by nonfarm proprietors Interest distributed by regulated investment companies disability payments Equals: BEA-derived AGI... 8, , IRS AGI (as reported)... 7, , Plus: Reallocation by type of IRS Estate or trust Partnership Other reallocations IRS AGI (reallocated)... 7, , (line 21 line 27)... 1, Percent distribution of Relative Addendum: Misreporting adjustment included in less misreporting adjustment (line 28 line 31) Percent distribution of less misreporting adjustments Relative less misreporting adjustments These benefits also include a security equivalent benefit portion of tier 1 railroad retirement benefits. 2. Consists primarily of employer contributions for employee pension and insurance funds and nontaxable transfer payments to persons less contributions to government insurance. 3. Includes tier 2 railroad retirement benefits that are taxed as if the benefits were paid under private employer retirement plans. 4. Consists of all the imputations in in NIPA table 7.12 except for employer contributions for health and life insurance premiums; these premiums are included in line Consists of imputed received by persons from life insurance carriers (NIPA table 7.11) and the investment of private and government employee pension plans. 6. Statutory adjustments or specific adjustments ( above-the-line deductions ) from total included to arrive at AGI. 7. Consists of the taxable portion of private and government employee retirement plan benefit payments. 8. Consists of partnership retained by fiduciaries. 9. Adjusted gross gap (line 28) as a percentage of BEA-derived AGI (line 21). 10. Adjusted gross gap less misreporting adjustment (line 32) as a percentage of BEA-derived AGI (line 21) without misreporting adjustment (line 31). NIPAs National and product accounts

5 SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS 39 Table 2. Comparison of Income With Adjusted Gross Income (AGI) by Type of Income for 2004 Line Wage and salary Proprietors Farm Nonfarm of persons with CCAdj Income receipts on assets pensions and security 1 Other 2 Income not included in , , ( 3 ) , Less: Portion of not included in AGI... 3, , Nontaxable transfer payments to persons... 1, , Employer contributions to pension and insurance funds Imputed in Investment retained by life insurance carriers and pensions 6 plans Investment received by nonprofit institutions and retained by fiduciaries Differences in accounting treatment between NIPAs and tax 8 regulations, net Other exempt or excluded from AGI ( 6 ) Plus: Portion of AGI not included in 1, Contributions for government insurance Net gain from sale of assets pensions Small business corporation Other types of Plus: Reallocation by type of NIPA Fiduciaries share of partnership Interest received by nonfarm proprietors Interest distributed by regulated investment companies disability payments Equals: BEA-derived AGI... 7, , IRS AGI (as reported)... 6, , Plus: Reallocation by type of IRS Estate or trust Partnership Other reallocations IRS AGI (reallocated)... 6, , (line 21 line 27)... 1, Percent distribution of Relative Addendum: Misreporting adjustment included in less misreporting adjustment (line 28 line 31) Percent distribution of less misreporting adjustments Relative less misreporting adjustments These benefits also include a security equivalent benefit portion of tier 1 railroad retirement benefits. 2. Consists primarily of employer contributions for employee pension and insurance funds and nontaxable transfer payments to persons less contributions to government insurance. 3. Includes tier 2 railroad retirement benefits that are taxed as if the benefits were paid under private employer retirement plans. 4. Consists of all the imputations in in NIPA table 7.12 except for employer contributions for health and life insurance premiums; these premiums are included in line Consists of imputed received by persons from life insurance carriers (NIPA table 7.11) and the investment of private and government employee pension plans. 6. Statutory adjustments or specific adjustments ( above-the-line deductions ) from total included to arrive at AGI. 7. Consists of the taxable portion of private and government employee retirement plan benefit payments. 8. Consists of partnership retained by fiduciaries. 9. Adjusted gross gap (line 28) as a percentage of BEA-derived AGI (line 21). 10. Adjusted gross gap less misreporting adjustment (line 32) as a percentage of BEA-derived AGI (line 21) without misreporting adjustment (line 31). NIPAs National and product accounts

6 40 BEA Income and IRS Adjusted Gross Income November 2007 Table 3. The BEA and IRS Measures of Adjusted Gross Income (AGI) and the AGI Gap by Type of Income, [Billions of Dollars] BEA-derived AGI IRS AGI Wage and salary Proprietors with IVA and CCAdj of persons with CCAdj Farm Nonfarm Income receipts on assets pension and security benefits , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , Table 4. The Relative Adjusted Gross Income (AGI) Gap by Type of Income for [Percent] Proprietors Income receipts on assets Addenda relative Wage and salary Farm Nonfarm of persons with CCAdj pension and security benefits The sum of The sum of items items except wages, subject to the not subject to the requirements requirements for filing for filing information information returns 1 returns ( 3 ) Consists of,, taxable pensions, taxable tive BEA-derived AGI value., and taxable security benefits. These types of have been subject to varying NOTE. The relative is the as a percentage of the BEA-derived AGI; see line 31 in tables 1 degrees of withholding since and Consists of farm proprietors, nonfarm proprietors, and rental of persons. 3. The calculation of the relative for farm proprietors is not applicable, because of a nega-

7 SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS 41 Table 5. The Adjusted Gross Income (AGI) Gap Less Misreporting Adjustment and Relative AGI Gap by Type of Income, [Billions of Dollars] Wage and salary Nonfarm proprietors of persons with CCAdj