IS CYCLING A SAFE MODE? COMPARING APPLES WITH APPLES
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1 University of Leeds, ITS Seminar IS CYCLING A SAFE MODE? COMPARING APPLES WITH APPLES Dr Glen Koorey Senior Lecturer in Transportation Dept of Civil and Natural Resources Engineering University of Canterbury Christchurch, New Zealand
2 Presentation Outline Background / New Zealand Context Comparison of Travel Modes Safety Metric Used Age Distributions Road Environments Safety in Numbers Ben Wong Koorey G.F., Wong W.K. (2013), Is Cycling a Safe Mode? Comparing Apples with Apples, 16th International Road Safety on Four Continents Conference, Beijing, China, May 2013.
3 So you're from Australia, right?
4 The great New Zealand Image...
5 The great New Zealand Reality...
6 New Zealand 4.5 million people Low population density Very urbanised Typical Western Development Automobiles Auckland Wellington Christchurch ~1.4% of Trips by Bike ~3% commuting
7 Cycling Safety in New Zealand ~10 Cycling Fatalities/yr ~1000 Reported Injuries/yr Widespread perception about "danger" of cycling Sporadic cycling facilities
8 Isn't Cycling Unsafe? "Peak hour urban traffic is dangerous for cyclists The best protection for cyclists is prohibition from peak hour urban roads" "Really, you must have a screw loose to want to ride a bike on today's roads, you just don't know what nutter is behind the wheel."
9 Risk of Cycle Crashes Perceived Risk influenced by: Regular Negative Media Lack of Familiarity with Cycling by many Can't Control Behaviour of Other Road Users Immediacy of Injury/Death Actual Calculated Risks in NZ: 1 Cycling Death per 2.5 million hrs cycled 1 Serious Injury for every 20,000 hrs cycled Health benefits of cycling outweigh risks 20:1
10 NZ Cycling Safety Panel (2014), Safer Journeys for people who cycle: Cycling Safety Panel Final Report and Recommendations, NZ Transport Agency & Ministry of Transport, Wellington, Dec 2014.
11 Comparisons with Other Modes In many countries, one of the barriers to acceptance and encouragement of cycling is the perceived danger of the mode By politicians, policymakers, and the public Not helped by "official" comparisons of different travel modes Typically show cycling as having a far greater crash rate than other modes (driving, walking) Not really "comparing apples with apples"...
12 Safety of Travel Modes from NZ Travel Survey 245 Cycling ~9x "riskier" than Driving 27
13 Research Context Study how different factors affect the relative safety of different travel modes Used data from NZ road crash database & Household Travel Survey Compared relative crash rates for travel modes Aim to address the key question for a person considering their travel options: "What is the risk to me in making the same type of trip on the same types of facility by bike instead of driving?"
14 Safety per Hour Travelled Cycling ~3x "riskier" than Driving 29 10
15 The Same Trip Made? 35% 30% Car (Ave Trip Distance 9km) Cyclist (Ave Trip Distance 3km) 25% Proportion of Trips 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% <1km 1-2km 2-5km 5-10km >10km
16 Age Distribution of Travellers
17 Travel Mode Risk by Age
18 Where are we Driving? Crash Risk: 39.3 Ax/MVKT Crash Risk: 35.6 Ax/MVKT Crash Risk: 41.3 Ax/MVKT Crash Risk: 23.2 Ax/MVKT Crash Risk: 11.8 Ax/MVKT
19 Where are we Biking? But where are the cycle motorways?
20 "Safe", Segregated Cycle Facilities... But off-road trips and crashes aren't recorded!
21 Urban State Highway Risk
22 Minor Urban Road Risk
23 Other Rural Road Risk On a per-hour basis, crash rates are very similar
24 Safety in Numbers! Example: signalised crossroads LTNZ Research Report #289, 2006
25 Safety in Numbers? People cycling would strongly benefit by protection from traffic in busy road environments, e.g. segregated facilities
26 To Put Things in Perspective... ~10 cyclist deaths on roads per year in NZ Average of ~360 motor vehicle occupants killed / year in NZ ~ premature deaths / year in NZ due to motor vehicle emissions ~2500 deaths / year due to physical inactivity in NZ 20:1 benefit of life-years gained from cycling vs life-years lost (BMA, 1992)
27 Conclusions Safety comparisons may not always be comparing apples with apples Relative amount of time taken by each mode Average distance travelled by different modes Age distributions / "road experience" of travellers Types of road environments/facilities travelled Different crash reporting rates by mode Cumulative "safety in numbers" effect Relative health costs other than road crashes Sometimes cycling not really more dangerous
28 Thank You! Any Questions? More Info:
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