Wind Energy and Technology Deployment under Climate Change

Transcription

1 Briefing paper series from the Cambridge Centre for Climate Change Mitigation Research Wind Energy and Technology Deployment under Regional changes in wind speed and variability could have implications for the positioning of new wind turbines, as well as associated infrastructure requirements. Climate projections from state-of-the-art models can give insights into the likelihood of change in areas being considered for investment. However, to facilitate the uptake of such data in decision-making, it is important to consider stakeholders own perceptions of their risk exposure and information needs. Here we present findings from a pilot study exploring perceptions of climate change impacts on the wind energy sector amongst industry representatives. Participants represented a cross-section of the wind energy sector, self-identifying as energy companies, developers of wind farms, suppliers of wind turbines or equipment, engineering firms, or investors. Participants perception of risks and benefits of climate change on wind energy operations were explored through a survey, along with their perception of information needs, and perception of institutional capacity to generate and use information about climate impacts. Responses indicate that a decision-making tool incorporating climate change data would be beneficial, as current awareness of climate change impacts on the sector was limited amongst the participants. However, decision-makers in this sector also face significant uncertainty stemming from economic and social concerns. As such, in order to be communicated effectively, climate change information must be presented in the context of this multi-risk landscape. Potential challenges to the deployment of wind energy due to investment risk Introduction The expansion of renewable energy as part of a transition to a sustainable energy economy has large potential to mitigate the risks associated with anthropogenic climate change. In this context, wind power is an important energy resource. Just 20% of the world's wind power potential could satisfy 100% of the world's energy demand. Yet, the wind power resource base is by its very nature, sensitive to fluctuations in climate. While climate change is not expected to greatly impact global wind potential, regional changes are anticipated. Therefore, decision-making about the positioning of future wind turbines and investment in associated infrastructure may benefit from a strategic approach to decision-making, which involves setting geographic priorities to manage climate change risks. The briefing paper series from 4CMR provides policy makers, organisations, communities and citizens with advanced research on the roles of economic, energy and environmental strategies for reducing the risk of climate change. However, wind forecasting for energy generation mainly focuses on the shorter timescales (seconds to days) on which power systems operations occur. Generating projections of wind energy potential on the longer timescales of climate change (e.g. to the end of this century), requires different approaches. On this timescale, consideration must be given not only to how Earth system processes are best represented, but also to the diverse potential trajectories of global development and their associated greenhouse gas emissions. As such, long-term climate projections require the use of coupled Atmosphere-Ocean Circulation Models (AOGCMs). However, these models are subject to a range of uncertainties, including uncertainty that is not related to the climate system (e.g. relating to future paths of global development). Such uncertainties may make the uptake ofsuch data for use in decision-making by non-specialists more challenging.

2 Methodology After producing wind energy potentials under climate change, 16 potential expert respondents were invited to participate in the expert panel; 12 completed the survey. Stakeholders self-identified as one of the following: Energy company: creating, operating and maintaining a wind farm Developer: creating a wind farm Supplier: providing the wind turbines or other equipment for a wind farm Engineering: providing engineering support for the design of a wind farm Investor: providing capital (equity or debt) for a wind farm project Three main question groups were identified and included in the survey instrument: Perception of risks and benefits of climate change on wind energy operations. Perception of information needs. Perception of institutional capacity to (a) generate and/or (b) use information about climate change. The survey instrument contained a mix of open and closed questions, to assure a level of comparability while also encouraging qualitative insight. Results Perception of risks and benefits of climate change on wind energy operations While the majority of respondents perceived that climate change would have no impacts on their wind energy operations, some specific impacts, both positive and negative, were also noted (see figure below). Positive impacts perceived were the potential for climate change policy to stimulate wind power deployment and increased public acceptance for wind power deployment. Number of respondents identifying climate change as producing positive, negative, no or a balance of effects Specific negative impacts cited were the potential for storm damage to turbines, and future changes in wind patterns. Concern about changes in wind energy potential was reported to be a predominantly long-term issue. Mean changes in wind energy potential were of less concern than either variability changes alone, or combined mean and variance effects. These results suggest that stakeholders have some awareness of potential climate change impacts on their business, but that the perceived lack of urgency may limit preparedness to implement adaptation measures Reported timescales of concern regarding changes in wind energy potential

3 Perception of information needs Six respondents indicated that some additional information about wind energy potential under climate change would be useful, though not critical in taking decisions. Needs that were identified included general climate statistics, such as the mean and variance of future wind speed, as well as specific data and tools, such as wind rose projections and a capacity visualisation tool. The need for uncertainty distributions for key climate parameters was also cited. Ten respondents indicated that they would like to be able to consult with experts on matters relating to advanced climate data. Perception of institutional capacity The majority of respondents (7 out of 12) reported that they currently do not have strategies in place to cope with shifts in wind energy potential under climate change. Respondents noted that new turbine designs are increasingly robust against wind variability, but that they still perceive a modest need for external scientific support in order to identify and assess strategies for dealing with changes in wind climate, and monitor climate change as it evolves in the future. Planning issues were cited as the most significant challenge faced with respect to decision-making about development sites. Participants identified two non-scientific areas where better information would be advantageous; improved reliability of government policy and planning guidelines, and improved information about the social issues that give rise to community opposition. Discussion Community opposition has been reported as a critical issue oin wind energy investment and development. Such opposition can ultimately lead to the cancellation of wind power projects. In the UK, approximately 80% of the public indicate that they support wind energy, yet planning applications for wind power developments have low success rates, and only a quarter of contracted wind power capacity is actually commissioned, a phenomenon referred to as the social gap. The NIMBY (Not-In-My-Backyard) concept has long been is used to explain such opposition, but has been criticised for failing to adequately explain the drivers of opposition. Example of projection estimates provided in the study. This figure uses RCP 2.6 and projections out to Mean wind speed is shown, with a later figure showing variance for the same RCP 2.6 projection.

4 Opposition cannot be dismissed as the product of ignorance or misinformation. Indeed, an individual with a positive attitude to wind power in general may oppose a particular development. Examples in the literature indicate that opposition tends to stem from a complex combination of concerns. For instance, local opposition to off-shore wind development in Germany is linked not only to concern about visual impacts, but with perceptions of the sea as a natural, rather than industrial, space. Similarly, support for wind energy and for individual developments does not follow a single narrative, but encompasses a range of discourses. Public support for wind energy tends to be high where community (co-)ownership is a feature of a development. Perceptions of fairness in the consultation process, which can be evaluated using procedural justice principles, have also been shown to influence public support. Evidently, further research is required in order to understand the social context of wind energy. Example of projection estimates provided in the study. This figure uses RCP 2.6 and projections out to Variability in wind speed is captured in this figure. The Cambridge Centre for Climate Change Mitigation Re-search (4CMR) studies the inter-connected economic, energy and environmental policies at the heart of climate change policy. This Briefing Paper was developed from research conducted by Aideen Foley and Doug Crawford-Brown of 4CMR, and Phil Holden of the Open University, based on NERC grant. For details, contact Doug Crawford-Brown at 4CMR. Uncertainty stemming from economic, political and social issues is also a key concern due to the direct impact such factors can have on investment decision-making. However, such factors are difficult to include in predictive models of future wind energy capacity and implementation. While GIS approaches can be used to incorporate current constraints on development into such models, e.g. by excluding areas with national parks or in close proximity to a shoreline, it is difficult to predict how such factors may evolve over time, particularly on the longer timescales of climate change. Conclusions We have examined perceptions of climate change impacts on decision-making through stakeholder engagement with a cross-section of the wind energy sector. The research indicates the complexity of factors that factor in decision-making in this sector, with climatological, political and social concerns each playing their role. Unlike political and social systems, the climate system can be mathematically modelled to anticipate future change. However, in order to be communicated effectively, climate change information must be presented in the context of the multi-risk landscape faced by decision-makers. Future research can build upon the findings of this study by exploring the predictors of community support and identifying complimentary geographical datasets relating to such social characteristics, that could be integrated with climate data in a GIS framework to fulfil stakeholders information needs. Cambridge Centre for Mitigation Research Department of Land Economy, University of Cambridge 19 Silver Street Cambridge CB3 9EP (0)

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6 Wind Energy and Technology Deployment under The study of the financing of water control discussed here is part of a larger analysis of water-catchment management that involves collective action by multiple and di-verse stakeholders with differing aims, resources, authority and responsibility. These stakeholders also differ in how the finance is structured (debt, equity or grants), the terms under which fin

7 Wind Energy and Technology Deployment under The study of the financing of water control discussed here is part of a larger analysis of water-catchment management that involves collective action by multiple and di-verse stakeholders with differing aims, resources, authority and responsibility. These stakeholders also differ in how the finance is structured (debt, equity or grants), the terms under which fin

8 Wind Energy and Technology Deployment under The study of the financing of water control discussed here is part of a larger analysis of water-catchment management that involves collective action by multiple and di-verse stakeholders with differing aims, resources, authority and responsibility. These stakeholders also differ in how the finance is structured (debt, equity or grants), the terms under which fin

9 Wind Energy and Technology Deployment under The study of the financing of water control discussed here is part of a larger analysis of water-catchment management that involves collective action by multiple and di-verse stakeholders with differing aims, resources, authority and responsibility. These stakeholders also differ in how the finance is structured (debt, equity or grants), the terms under which fin The Cambridge Centre for Climate Change Mitigation Research (4CMR) studies the inter-connected economic, energy and environmental policies at the heart of climate change policy. This Briefing Paper was developed from research conducted by Aideen Foley and Doug Crawford-Brown of 4CMR, and Phil Holden of the Open University, based on NERC grant. For details, contact Doug Crawford-Brown at 4CMR. Cambridge Centre for Mitigation Research Department of Land Economy, University of Cambridge 19 Silver Street Cambridge CB3 9EP (0)