Investor Meetings: Sydney and Tokyo October 2-5, 2015

Transcription

1 Investor Meetings: Sydney and Tokyo October 2-5, 2015 Ludington Pumped Storage Ray Compressor Station Cross Winds Energy Park Fourth largest in the world #1 LDC in gas storage #2 in renewable sales in the Great Lakes area

2 This presentation is made as of the date hereof and contains forward-looking statements as defined in Rule 3b-6 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, Rule 175 of the Securities Act of 1933, and relevant legal decisions. The forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties. All forward-looking statements should be considered in the context of the risk and other factors detailed from time to time in CMS Energy s and Consumers Energy s Securities and Exchange Commission filings. Forward-looking statements should be read in conjunction with FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS AND INFORMATION and RISK FACTORS sections of CMS Energy s and Consumers Energy s Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2014 and as updated in subsequent 10-Qs. CMS Energy s and Consumers Energy s FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS AND INFORMATION and RISK FACTORS sections are incorporated herein by reference and discuss important factors that could cause CMS Energy s and Consumers Energy s results to differ materially from those anticipated in such statements. CMS Energy and Consumers Energy undertake no obligation to update any of the information presented herein to reflect facts, events or circumstances after the date hereof. The presentation also includes non-gaap measures when describing CMS Energy s results of operations and financial performance. A reconciliation of each of these measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measure is included in the appendix and posted on our website at CMS Energy provides historical financial results on both a reported (Generally Accepted Accounting Principles) and adjusted (non-gaap) basis and provides forward-looking guidance on an adjusted basis. Management views adjusted earnings as a key measure of the company s present operating financial performance, unaffected by discontinued operations, asset sales, impairments, regulatory items from prior years, or other items. These items have the potential to impact, favorably or unfavorably, the company's reported earnings in future periods. Investors and others should note that CMS Energy routinely posts important information on its website and considers the Investor Relations section, a channel of distribution. 1

3 CMS Energy.... Electric service territory Natural gas service territory Combined service territory Generating facility Overview #4 Combination utility (electric and gas) in the country #383 Fortune 500 company #2 Investor in Michigan Our Service Territory Electric Utility 1.8 million electric customers 8,900 MW of capacity Headquarters Gas Utility 1.7 million gas customers 309 bcf gas storage (#1 in the U.S.).... recently named top pick by Fortune Magazine. 2

4 Why Invest in CMS Energy? Our Growth Engine ( Capex) Supported By UPSIDES -- More growth (Investment, Sales, Cost, & DIG) $15.5 Billion PARTNERS -- Facilitate growth (Customers, Regulators, & Policy Makers) More upside $5 bil NOT yet in Plan! PASSION to improve for customers AND owners (Value, Reliability, & Environment) SELF-FUNDED!.... next 10 years even brighter than last 10 year record! 3

5 Simple, Perhaps Unique CMS Growth Model.... Capital investment (drives long-term growth) - O&M cost reductions - Sales growth - No block equity dilution - Surcharges and other INVESTMENT SELF-FUNDED Rate increase at or below inflation 5-Year Plan Upside Opportunity 5% - 7% 6% - 8% -2 pts Short-term - ½ ROA return -1 and/or -1½ -5 pts <2 % <2% Long-term Replace PPAs.... drives sustainable growth with upside opportunities. 4

6 Capex Up 45% $10.7 bil $15.5 bil +45% +30% Opportunity Opportunity $20 + bil Electric Maintenance 27% Gas Infrastructure Electric Maintenance Gas Infrastructure 37% Environ. Electric Reliability New Generation Percent of Mkt Cap CMS Peers 10% 11 Smart Energy New Generation Environmental Smart Energy Electric Reliability 16% 15 Infra 21%.... with more opportunity and no big bets over ten years! 5

7 O&M Cost Performance.... Peer Average >5% Actual Cost Reduction (2014 over 2006) Consumers - 2.7% Source: SNL, Form 1, Electric Non-fuel O&M Future Cost Savings 2014 & 2015 (mils) Attrition $ - 35 $ - 75 Productivity (Coal Gas) Pole Top Hardening Smart Meters Eliminate Waste (UA s) Mortality Tables & Discount Rates Service Upgrades Net Savings $ - 60 $ Percent Savings - 6% - 10% FAST START! (mils) 2% a year!.... better than peers with substantial upside. 6

8 CMS Energy.... 7% CAGR Future +5% to +7% Recession EPS a Recession Dividend Help Hurt We work with anyone and in any condition Future Cold winter Mild summer Hot summer _ a Adjusted EPS (non-gaap) Warm winter Governor (D) Commission (D) Mild summer Cold winter Summer- less Hot summer Hot summer New Commission (D) Warm winter Mild summer Polar vortex Governor (R) Commission (R).... consistent growth through recession, adverse weather, changing policy leaders.... Cold Feb. 7

9 Investor Meetings: Sydney and Tokyo October 2-5, 2015 Ludington Pumped Storage Ray Compressor Station Cross Winds Energy Park Fourth largest in the world #1 LDC in gas storage #2 in renewable sales in the Great Lakes area

10 CMS Energy.... Electric service territory Natural gas service territory Combined service territory Generating facility Overview #4 Combination utility (electric and gas) in the country #383 Fortune 500 company #2 Investor in Michigan Our Service Territory Electric Utility 1.8 million electric customers 8,900 MW of capacity Headquarters Gas Utility 1.7 million gas customers 309 bcf gas storage (#1 in the U.S.).... recently named top pick by Fortune Magazine. 9

11 Why Invest in CMS Energy? Our Growth Engine ( Capex) Supported By UPSIDES -- More growth (Investment, Sales, Cost, & DIG) $15.5 Billion PARTNERS -- Facilitate growth (Customers, Regulators, & Policy Makers) More upside $5 bil NOT yet in Plan! PASSION to improve for customers AND owners (Value, Reliability, & Environment) SELF-FUNDED!.... next 10 years even brighter than last 10 year record! 10

12 Long-Term Growth Faster than Peers.... Amount 12% CMS Energy 4 Consistent, Predictable 11 9 Amount 12 % Typical Utility 4 Can be erratic _ a Adjusted EPS (non-gaap) a EPS Dividend TSR 0 EPS Dividend TSR.... with ten years worth of sustainable future growth. 11

13 Total Shareowner Return % 400 CMS +436% S&P 500 Utilities +185% S&P % September 23, Source: Bloomberg.... CMS outperforms peers. 12

14 Simple, Perhaps Unique CMS Growth Model.... Capital investment (drives long-term growth) - O&M cost reductions - Sales growth - No block equity dilution - Surcharges and other INVESTMENT SELF-FUNDED Rate increase at or below inflation 5-Year Plan 5% - 7% -2 pts - ½ -1-1½ -5 pts <2 %.... drives sustainable growth. 13

15 Investment Catch-up.... Capex (bils) $1.8 One of first with a ten year plan > $1.5 per year CMS Energy Peers Catch-up Capex as a Percent of Market Cap CMS 10% 16% Peers a _ a Based on December 31, 2014 information percent of market cap Source: 10K; actual amounts through 2014 smoothed for illustration.... creating an opportunity for the next ten years. 14

16 Capex Up 45% $10.7 bil $15.5 bil +45% +30% Opportunity Opportunity $20 + bil Electric Maintenance 27% Gas Infrastructure Electric Maintenance Gas Infrastructure 37% Environ. Electric Reliability New Generation Percent of Mkt Cap CMS Peers 10% 11 Smart Energy New Generation Environmental Smart Energy Electric Reliability 16% 15 Infra 21%.... with more opportunity and no big bets over ten years! 15

17 Rate Base Growth.... Rate Base (bils) $ Years of Growth +6% /year Investment Amount (bils) Gas Infrastructure & Maintenance $ 5.8 Electric Reliability Depreciation Smart Energy Environmental New Generation Electric Maintenance Plan Investment $ drives EPS growth. 16

18 Cleaner Generation.... Renewables Lake Winds Energy Park 100 MW Diverse Capacity Clean Coal Karn Generating a Plant, 508 MW New Wind Pumped Storage 41% 6% 11% Balanced Portfolio 8% 2005 Coal 31% Gas 3% Capacity % Gas Renewables Coal Pumped Storage Oil Nuclear Purchases Ludington Pumped Storage Plant 2,172 MW Clean Coal Gas Apple Blossom Wind Farm 100 MW Renewables 12% 9% 8% % 35% Gas 46% Gas & Renewables Campbell Generating a Plant, 1,362 MW _ a Summer peak Jackson Plant, 540 MW Cross Winds Energy Park 111 MW 24% Coal.... puts us in a good position to meet carbon regulations. 11% 17

19 New Contract: Apple Blossom Wind Farm.... At A Glance Competitive price Expanding Wind Contracts 100 MW 15 year contract Commercial operation late 2016 Capacity, energy, and renewable credits Option to purchase.... demonstrates ability to build carbon cushion. 18

20 Growing the Gas Business.... Capex (bils) $ % $5.8 New Customers 4 2 $2.9 Infrastructure Pipeline Integrity Capacity & Deliverability Civic Improvement Compression & Storage 0 Smart Energy & Other Last 10 Next 10 Pct Total 27% 37%.... at ~$2 per day -- same as in 2004! 19

21 O&M Cost Performance.... Peer Average >5% Actual Cost Reduction (2014 over 2006) Consumers - 2.7% Source: SNL, Form 1, Electric Non-fuel O&M Future Cost Savings 2014 & 2015 (mils) Attrition $ - 35 $ - 75 Productivity (Coal Gas) Pole Top Hardening Smart Meters Eliminate Waste (UA s) Mortality Tables & Discount Rates Service Upgrades Net Savings $ - 60 $ Percent Savings - 6% - 10% FAST START! (mils) 2% a year!.... better than peers with substantial upside. 20

22 O&M Cost Reductions Down 10% Down 7% or 2%/yr $1.1 bil $1.0 bil $0.9 bil Inflation 2% Inflation 2% Coal to Gas Switching (Zeeland) Smarter benefit plans Productivity/Attrition Coal to Gas Switching (Jackson) Pole Top Hardening Productivity/Smart Energy.... provide more headroom for more capital investment. 21

23 Managing the Work Every Year.... Adjusted EPS $ % $ % $ % Reinvestment $1.60 $1.50 $1.40 Hot Summer +1 +7% Taxes Refinancing Cost Savings Mild Winter +7% Reinvestment Hot Summer Cold Winter Reinvestment Polar Vortex Peers +3½% $1.30 Storms has permitted $300 Million of reinvestment O&M; maximizes benefits for customers AND investors. 22

24 Sales Growth.... a Our Service Territory Outperforms Grand Rapids Michigan U.S b Building Permits +23% +11% +12% Industrial Total 6% Annual Electric Sales c GDP Conservative Population % Unemployment (7/15) % ½% _ a Grand Rapids b Annualized numbers thru July Post-Recession Future _ c Weather normalized vs. prior year.... planned conservatively. 23

25 Economic Development Growth.... Examples of New Business Electric Gas Combination Announcement General Motors Flint & Grand Rapids Assembly and Components Plants 300 jobs created $996 million investment Announcement Arauco Largest particleboard press in North America 250 jobs created $325 million investment Industries MW Auto 80 Food 15 Manufacturing 25 Metal 20 Dicastal Bayer CropScience Continental Dairy Betz Plasan Enbridge Magna-Cosma Post WKW Denso Brembo Durolast Roofing GM Assembly Dart MSU FRIB MACI Petroleum 19 Plastics 19 Others 35 Total Up includes 3% of additional sales growth. 24

26 No Block Equity Dilution.... Typical utility Model w/o NOLs CMS Model w/ NOLs < 6% 6% 6% -1% < 5% 0 Rate Base Growth Dilution EPS Growth Rate Base Growth Dilution EPS Growth.... under CMS growth model. 25

27 Simple, Perhaps Unique CMS Growth Model.... Capital investment (drives long-term growth) - O&M cost reductions - Sales growth - No block equity dilution - Surcharges and other INVESTMENT SELF-FUNDED Rate increase at or below inflation 5-Year Plan Upside Opportunity 5% - 7% 6% - 8% -2 pts Short-term - ½ ROA return -1 and/or -1½ -5 pts <2 % <2% Long-term Replace PPAs.... drives sustainable growth with upside opportunities. 26

28 PPAs (2,000 MW) Create Unique Opportunity for.... PPA vs Owned Capacity 30% Opportunity 2,000 MW $2 Bil Investment 10% PPAs New Gas Build Annual Customer Impact Amount (mils) $(650) 650 zero 5% Peers CMS Today CMS Future.... more capacity investment, without increasing bills. 27

29 ROA (800 MW) Creates Unique Opportunity for.... Potential Return Opportunity 800 MW One-Way Door Decision $150 million subsidy 0.02% of customers on ROA (~300 customers) Build Decision Could lower rates 4% for everyone if all returned Today Dec. 15 Future Build new generation capacity, funded by return.... more capacity investment, without increasing bills; worth five years of growth. 28

30 MISO Zone 7 Capacity Forecasted Shortfall (MW) Impact June 2014 Annual MISO Survey June 2015 New capacity to meet shortfall not assumed CMS & DTE Purchase IPPs -1,300 More upside to $15.5 billion capex plan -3,000 _ Source: MISO New Build Lower Demand Creates upside pressure in capacity prices -- DIG opportunity.... shortfall expected to be 1,300 MW. 29

31 Capacity & Energy Price Increases.... Was (mils) Now (mils) Future Scenarios (mils) New Business Energy Capacity + $25 $50 more $65 $55 Long-term Energy 250 MW at $4.00 per kwm (6/14) 250 MW $6.00 per kwm (4/15) $40 $35 Recent Capacity Long-term > $3.30 Near-term $4.50 Capacity price ($ kw per month) $15 $5 < $0.50 $2.00 $4.50 $7.50 (Prior) (Forecast) (CONE) Upside: Capacity and energy contracts layered in over time.... adding value to our DIG plant. 30

32 Electric Customer Prices.... Residential Bills Industrial Rates 20% 30% 26% Worse Worse Rates & Fuel 0-10 Better -20 National Avg Residential bills well below U.S. average (13)% (13)% Rates Rates & Fuel Rates & Act 169 (17)% Plus Better Midwest Avg Rates & Act 169 Policy could eliminate gap 4% (8)% Plus Flat.... affordable for residential and improving for industrial customers. 31

33 Customer Satisfaction.... Electric Gas 1 st Quartile 2 nd Quartile #4 1 st Quartile 2 nd Quartile #3 #6 #9 3 rd Quartile 4 th Quartile Present Rank rd Quartile 4 th Quartile Present Rank 2016 Residential Business Residential Business.... continues to improve rapidly. 32

34 CMS Energy.... 7% CAGR Future +5% to +7% Recession EPS a Recession Dividend Help Hurt We work with anyone and in any condition Future Cold winter Mild summer Hot summer _ a Adjusted EPS (non-gaap) Warm winter Governor (D) Commission (D) Mild summer Cold winter Summer- less Hot summer Hot summer New Commission (D) Warm winter Mild summer Polar vortex Governor (R) Cold Feb. Commission (R).... consistent growth through recession, adverse weather, changing policy leaders

35 Michigan Energy Law.... Update: House and Senate bills align Sen. Nofs Gov. Snyder Rep. Nesbitt Retail Open Access Efficiency Renewables Keep cap Keep cap Keep cap 3-year capacity requirement one way door No subsidy 1%/yr waste reduction through year capacity requirement Fair choice No subsidy Eliminate 15% energy waste IRP process Stricter 5-year capacity requirement No subsidy Phase out energy efficiency through major players are aligning. 34

36 Constructive Regulation.... Commission Tier 1 State Ranking John Quackenbush (R), Chairman Term Ends: July 2, Michigan ranked #1 2 8 Sally Talberg (I) Term Ends: July 2, Norm Saari (R) Term Ends: July 2, Newly appointed! Barclays Research, 2015 state rankings.... is supported by a quality Commission and a strong Law. 35

37 CMS Energy Consistent Growth.... Future Shines Bright a Sustainable Future Growth EPS a $ % to +7% Past Performance Next 5 Years +7% /year Investment (bils) ( ) $6.4 $7.6 Capacity Op! O&M Reductions ( ) (10)% (7)% Conservative Sales Growth ( ) +1% +½ % Conservative Energy Policy 2008 Law Improved Law _ a Adjusted EPS (non-gaap) Last 7 Years Next 5 Years.... even easier, with lots of upsides. 36

38 Appendix

39 Clean Power Plan.... Lbs CO 2 (per MWh) Consumers Energy 2005 Baseline (Preliminary -- Emission Rate) Retire 950 MW coal Projected outlook with 20% renewables -- investment not yet in Plan State of Michigan Target positioned well for compliance. 38

40 Our Mindset Year Actual 7% CAGR a EPS Dividend $0.81 $0.90 $0.96 Int l Sale $1.08 $ % $1.21 Peers 4% b 39% 36 $ % 50 $ % 66 $ % 84 $1.55 6% 96 $1.77 $1.66 6% $1.02 $ _ Future Future a Adjusted EPS (non-gaap) Dividend Payout 0% 25% 30% 40% 49% 58% 62% 62% 61% 60%-70% b $1.25 excluding discontinued Exeter operations and accounting changes related to convertible debt and restricted stock.... provides consistent no excuse growth, without resets. 39

41 O&M Reinvestment Helps CUSTOMERS.... Adjusted EPS (non-gaap) 2015 O&M Reinvestment (mils) 2016 Savings (mils) DIG outage Forestry Donations & other Total $ (8) (5) (5) $(18) $ $20 13 Weather 12 Natural Offsets (4) Cost & Other 5 Flex Items Total 13 O&M choices Alt. financing Plant outage Contributions 2015 Guidance January March 31 June 30 September 30 December.... AND provides sustainable, premium growth for INVESTORS. 40

42 Rate Cases.... Gas (mils) Electric Track Record $64 $21 $85 Date Step Amount (mils) May 2013 Settlement $ Stay out -- June 2015 Self-implement 110 Dec Order expected Investment Cost of Capital, Upgrades, & Other Filed 7/17 2½ years since last order!.... fair and timely. 41

43 Capacity Diversity.... Renewables 9% Pumped Storage 11% Oil 6% Nuclear 8% 2014 Coal 34% Coal reduced by over 40%! Renewables 3% Pumped Storage 11% Oil 6% Nuclear 8% Gas 31% Coal 41% Gas 32% Renewables 11% Oil 9% Purchases 1% Pumped Storage 12% Nuclear 8% Gas 35% Coal 24%.... evolving to cleaner generation while becoming more cost competitive. 42

44 Electric Customer Base Diversified.... Top Ten Customers (2014 Ranked by Deliveries) Hemlock Semiconductor General Motors Nexteer Automotive Corporation Gerdau MacSteel Denso International Packaging Corporation of America Meijer State of Michigan Spectrum Health AT&T Percentage of electric gross margin is 2.4% 2014 Electric Gross Margin Residential 50% Other 4% $2.3 Billion Commercial 33% Auto 5% Industrial 8%.... autos only 5% of gross margin. 43

45 2015 Sensitivities.... Sales a Electric (37,550 GWh) Gas (302.4 Bcf) 2015 Impact Status Sensitivity EPS OCF + 1% $ (mils) + $ Gas prices (NYMEX) ROE (authorized) Electric (10.3%) Gas (10.3%) Interest Rates Capital Investment O&M Cost _ a Reflect 2015 sales forecast; weather adjusted + 10 bps bps +$100 mil - ½% < reflect strong risk mitigation. 44

46 Operating Cash Flow Growth.... Amount (bils) $ $1.8 Gross operating cash flow a up $0.1 billion per year $1.9 $2.1 $2.2 $2.3 $2.5 Interest, working capital and taxes Up $0.6 Billion $ $ Investment 0.1 (0.4) Cash flow before dividend _ (0.9) a Non-GAAP NOLs & Credits $0.7 $0.7 $0.7 $0.5 $0.3 $0.2 $ up $0.6 billion or 30% over five years! 45

47 Zeeland Cross Winds Big 5 Palisades Generation Strategy: New Supply Sources.... Levelized cost of new build ( /kwh) New Build Consumers Energy Sources Back -up Back -up Combined Cycle Gas Plant Gas price= $3.00 $4.50 $6.00 W/ tax credit Wind W/o tax credit Coal W/ emission controls Nuclear Residential Solar Today Future $3.00 per $2.00 per watt watt?.... combined cycle gas is the most attractive new source of supply. 46

48 GAAP Reconciliation

49 CMS ENERGY CORPORATION Earnings Per Share By Year GAAP Reconciliation (Unaudited) Reported earnings (loss) per share - GAAP ($0.30) $0.64 ($0.44) ($0.41) ($1.02) $1.20 $0.91 $1.28 $1.58 $1.42 $1.66 $1.74 After-tax items: Electric and gas utility 0.21 (0.39) - - (0.07) Enterprises (0.02) 1.25 (0.02) 0.09 (0.03) (0.11) (0.01) * 0.03 Corporate interest and other 0.16 (0.03) (0.32) (0.02) 0.01 * (0.01) * * * Discontinued operations (income) loss (0.16) 0.02 (0.07) (0.03) 0.40 (*) (0.08) 0.08 (0.01) (0.03) * (*) Asset impairment charges, net Cumulative accounting changes Adjusted earnings per share, including MTM - non-gaap $0.81 $0.87 $1.39 $0.57 $0.84 $1.21 (a) $1.26 $1.36 $1.45 $1.55 $1.66 $1.77 Mark-to-market impacts 0.03 (0.43) 0.51 Adjusted earnings per share, excluding MTM - non-gaap NA $0.90 $0.96 $1.08 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA * Less than $500 thousand or $0.01 per share. (a) $1.25 excluding discontinued Exeter operations and accounting changes related to convertible debt and restricted stock. 48

50 CMS Energy Reconciliation of Gross Operating Cash Flow to GAAP Operating Activities (unaudited) (mils) Consumers Operating Income + Depreciation & Amortization $ 1,813 $ 1,920 $ 2,027 $ 2,145 $ 2,266 $ 2,401 $ 2,515 Enterprises Project Cash Flows Gross Operating Cash Flow $ 1,833 $ 1,940 $ 2,067 $ 2,203 $ 2,328 $ 2,468 $ 2,586 Other operating activities including taxes, interest payments and working capital (386) (390) (567) (603) (628) (668) (686) Net cash provided by operating activities $ 1,447 $ 1,550 $ 1,500 $ 1,600 $ 1,700 $ 1,800 $ 1,900 49