Leif Anders Thorsrud

Transcription

1 Leif Anders Thorsrud Work Address Norges Bank Research Department Bankplassen , Oslo, Norway Permanent Address Gunnar Schjelderups vei 11k 0484, Oslo, Norway (+47) [email protected] CURRENT POSITIONS Senior Researcher, Research Department Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum Economics (CAMP) Researcher II Apr present Sept present Research fields: Business cycles, forecasting, monetary and fiscal economics, energy economics, Big Data and dynamic time series models. PROFESSIONAL EXPERIENCE BI Norwegian Business School BI, Oslo, Norway Assistant Professor, Economics Department Sept Mar University of Warwick, Warwick, UK Researcher June Aug Development of PROFOR Toolbox, an open-source toolbox for probability forecasting. Project sponsored by Bank of England, Norges Bank, and University of Warwick. Analyst, Economics division Aug Dec Developed system for combining (density) forecasts, and models for short-term forecasting. Business cycle analysis. From September 2010, 20 percent research position at the Economics division. Reserve Bank of New Zealand, Wellington, New Zealand Senior Analyst, Economics division July 2009 Mar Secondment. Developed system for combining (density) forecasts, and models for short-term forecasting. Business cycle analysis. Student internship, Economics division Aug Aug Contributing to data management and analysis of international macroeconomic developments.

2 TV2, Oslo, Norway Journalist Mar Aug News reporter at TV2 s news division. EDUCATION PhD, Economics BI Norwegian Business School, Oslo, Norway Sept Aug Thesis: International business cycles and oil market dynamics Committee members: Tommy Sveen (Chair), Haroon Mumtaz, Francesco Ravazzolo Supervisor: Hilde C. Bjørnland Master of Philosophy, Economics University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway Aug Dec Thesis: Forecasting Inflation in Real-Time Bachelor of Arts, International Relations University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway Aug June 2006 Bachelor of Arts, Journalism Oslo University College, Oslo, Norway Aug June 2004 Military service, Paratrooper Norwegian Special Forces (HJK) July 2001 July 2002 College The Norwegian College of Elite Sport, Geilo, Norway Aug June 2000 PUBLICATIONS Bjørnland, Hilde C. & Gerdrup, Karsten & Jore, Anne Sofie & Smith, Christie & Thorsrud, Leif Anders, Weights and pools for a Norwegian density combination, The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages Hilde C. Bjørnland & Gerdrup, Karsten R. & Jore, Anne Sofie & Smith, Christie & Thorsrud, Leif Anders, Does Forecast Combination Improve Norges Bank Inflation Forecasts?, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, University of Oxford, vol. 74(2), pages Knut A. Aastveit & Gerdrup, Karsten R. & Jore, Anne Sofie & Thorsrud, Leif Anders, Nowcasting GDP in Real-Time: A Density Combination Approach, Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, vol. 32(1), pages Knut Are Aastveit & Bjørnland, Hilde C. & Thorsrud, Leif Anders, What drives oil prices? Emerging versus developed economies, Journal of Applied Econometrics, vol. 30(7), pages Knut Are Aastveit & Bjørnland, Hilde C. & Thorsrud, Leif Anders, The world is not enough! Small open economies and regional dependence, The Scandinavian Journal of Economics, vol. 118(1), pages Bjørnland, Hilde C. & Thorsrud, Leif Anders, Boom or gloom? Examining the Dutch disease in two-speed economies, The Economic Journal, forthcoming.

3 Bjørnland, Hilde C. & Francesco Ravazzolo & Thorsrud, Leif Anders, Forecasting GDP with global components. This time is different, International Journal of Forecasting, forthcoming. WORKING PAPERS Thorsrud, Leif Anders, Words are the new numbers. A newsy coincident index of business cycles, Working Papers 44, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School. Submitted. Bjørnland, Hilde C. & Thorsrud, Leif Anders, Commodity prices and fiscal policy design: Procyclical despite a rule, Working Papers 33, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School. Submitted. Larsen, Vegard H. & Thorsrud, Leif Anders, The Value of News, Working Papers 34, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School. Submitted. Larsen, Vegard H. & Thorsrud, Leif Anders, The Value of News 2.0: Asset prices and news topics, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School. In progress. Bjørnland, Hilde C. & Thorsrud, Leif Anders & Zahiri, Sepideh Khayati, Monetary Policy Forecasts and Global Indicators, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School. In progress. Bjørnland, Hilde C. & Thorsrud, Leif Anders & Torvik, Ragnar, Dutch Disease Dynamics Reconsidered, In progress, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School. In progress. OTHER CONTRIBUTIONS Leo Krippner & Thorsrud, Leif Anders, Forecasting New Zealand s economic growth using yield curve information, Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series 2009/18, Reserve Bank of New Zealand. Karsten R. Gerdrup & Jore, Anne Sofie & Smith, Christie & Thorsrud, Leif Anders, Evaluating ensemble density combination - forecasting GDP and inflation, Working Paper 2009/19, Norges Bank. Chris McDonald & Thorsrud, Leif Anders, Evaluating density forecasts: model combination strategies versus the RBNZ, Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series 2011/03, Reserve Bank of New Zealand. Leif Anders Thorsrud, Global and regional business cycles. Shocks and propagations, Working Papers 12, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School. Bjørnland, Hilde C. & Thorsrud, Leif Anders, Hva skjer når oljeprisen faller?, Samfunnsøkonomen 2/2015. Aastveit, Knut A. & Gerdrup, Karsten R. & Jore, Anne S. & Thorsrud, Leif Anders, Du må vite hvor du skal for å komme dit du vil, Samfunnsøkonomen 7/2014.

4 BOOKS Hilde C. Bjørnland & Thorsrud, Leif Anders, Applied time series for macroeconomics, Gyldendal Akademisk (Oslo). PRESENTATIONS Nowcasting with Model Combination, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, Wellington, December, The 72nd International Atlantic Economic Conference, Washington DC, October, European Meeting of the Econometric Society, Malaga, August, The 5th International Conference of the ERCIM Working Group on Computing and Statistics, Oviedo, December, American Economic Association Annual Meeting, San Diego, January, European Seminar on Bayesian Econometrics, Norges Bank, Oslo, August, Commodities and the macroeconomy, ANU workshop, Canberra, December, The 7th International Conference on Computational and Financial Econometrics, London, December, The 20th International Conference Computing in Economics and Finance, Oslo, June, The 8th International Conference on Computational and Financial Econometrics, Pisa, December, The 24th Annual Symposium of the Society for Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics, Oslo, March, The 2nd Annual Conference of the International Association for Applied Econometrics, Thessaloniki, Bayesian Analysis and Modeling Summer Workshop, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, December, Applied Macroeconometrics Workshop, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, December, Internal workshops at: Statoil (2013, 2015), Norwegian Ministry of Finance (2014), Norges Bank (2012, 2013, 2014), University of California, San Diego (2012), and BI Norwegian Business School ( ). VISITING PROGRAMS University of California San Diego, San Diego, USA Visiting Scholar Aug Aug TEACHING EXPERIENCE Applied Macroeconomics, Bachelor-level BST 1612, BI Norwegian Business School Aug Dec Research Methodology, Master-level GRA 6648, BI Norwegian Business School Time Series Analysis, PhD-level DRE 7002, BI Norwegian Business School Master Thesis supervision BI Norwegian Business School

5 PROFESSIONAL SERVICES Referee: The Economic Journal, International Economic Review, RBNZ Working Paper Series, Econometrics. Organizer: Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School, workshop: Uncertainty in Economics, October LANGUAGE SKILLS Expert in Matlab. Experienced in SQL, HTML, PHP, JavaScript, and LaTeX. English (fluent), Norwegian (native). PERSONAL INTERESTS Outdoor recreation, ski-touring, kite-surfing, hiking, cross-country skiing. (Cross-country coach, Level 2, Norwegian Skiing Federation (2001)) REFERENCES Contact information is available upon request. Last updated: March 31, 2016