TRADE IN VALUE-ADDED: WTO-OECD DATABASE. Courtesy of Sébastien Miroudot (OECD)

Transcription

1 TRDE IN VLUE-DDED: WTO-OECD DTSE Courtesy of Sébastien Miroudot (OECD)

2 What is Trade in Value dded (TiV)? database containing estimates of the value that is added, by country and by industry, in producing goods and services Reveals the source of income generated and the economic significance of both exports and imports ased on national I-O or supply use tables, linked to bilateral trade flow data Currently covers 57 countries, 18 industries, for 1995, 2000, 2005, 2008 and 2009 OECD Trade and griculture Directorate 2

3 Some background horizontal activity (STD/STI/TD) formal joint-initiative with WTO Collaborating with a number of informal partners: USITC, IDE-JETRO, MOFCOM, WIOD etc With the assistance of a technical expert group. 3

4 What does the first release tell us? 4

5 Services matter Services Value-dded: % of exports, 2009 Foreign Domestic

6 Exports require imports Transport equipment Electronics 6

7 nd a significant share of total intermediate imports is used in exports 7

8 nd Value-dded often returns 8

9 SOURCES ND METHODS SSUMPTIONS ND CVETS

10 OECD Inter-country I-O table National I-O tables Production linkage Final expenditure Income (Value-added) Import procurement info + ilateral Trade Database Industry and End-use (capital, intermediates, consumption goods) 57 economies + Row, , 37 sectors, consistent with SN Country Sector 1: Goods Sector 2: Services Country Sector 1: Goods Sector 2: Services Country Country Final Demand Sector 1 Sector 2 Sector 1 Sector 2 Country Country Z 11 Z 12 Z 11 Z 12 F 1 F 1 Z 21 Z 22 Z 21 Z 22 F 2 F 2 Z 11 Z 12 Z 11 Z 12 F 1 F 1 Z 21 Z 22 Z 21 Z 22 F 2 F 2 Tax less subsidy on products NTZ 1 NTZ 2 NTZ 1 NTZ 2 NTF NTF International trade margin and insurance TIZ 1 TIZ 2 TIZ 1 TIZ 2 TIF TIF Value- Labor compensation VL 1 dded Operating surplus VO 1 Tax less subsidy on production Output VL 2 VL 1 VL 2 VO 2 VO 1 VO 2 VT 1 VT 2 VT 1 VT 2 X 1 X 2 X 1 X 2

11 Data sources for Inter-country I-O model (ICIO) Data sources Supply-use and Input-Output tables (National sources/ Eurostat / D) Merchandise trade statistics (OECD ITCS/UN Comtrade) National ccounts (UN/OECD /World ank) alance of Payments (National source / IMF) Intermediate analytical data products at OECD Harmonised symmetric Input-Output tables ilateral Trade Database by Industry and by End-use (TDIxE) djusted National ccounts with op and re-exports Components of Inter-country I-O Update estimates for missing tables for reference years Reconciliation of I-O and TD figures with National ccounts Estimated ilateral Trade in Services by Industry(ETSI)

12 Target 57 economies

13 Methods Import coefficient approach (conventional) Preparation of data sources Separate import matrices by import trade coefficients alance subject to total inputs = total output (not necessarily consistent with N-based total exports and imports. lso total imports and exports of a good does not match) Less computational requirement Numerical reconciliation approach Preparation of data sources Reconciliation procedures under different conditions, for example, Total exports/imports of ICIO = total exports/imports f.o.b. reported in SN World total imports = world total exports Some service exports/imports are derived by merchandise trade Heavy computational requirement (e.g. 10 hours / year service trade coefficients)

14 Indicator calculation Indicators are expressed in simple matrix forms (but requires significant computing power) V embodied in exports: EXGRV = v EX V created by demand of D: FDDV = v F D Services V created by foreign demand: FDDV_SV = vs F D v = V / output ratio vector of country EX = export vector of country = Leontief Inverse = (I- kl ij ) -1 vs = services V / output ratio vector of country F D = final demand of vector of country D Technical documents are also available at stats.oecd.org

15 TiV on OECD.STT industry list ISIC Rev 3 Industry griculture, hunting, forestry and fishing Mining and quarrying Food products, beverages and tobacco Textiles, textile products, leather and footwear Wood, paper, paper products, printing and publishing Chemicals and non-metallic mineral products asic metals and fabricated metal products 8 29 Machinery and equipment, nec Electrical and optical equipment Transport equipment Manufacturing nec; recycling Electricity, gas and water supply Construction Wholesale and retail trade; Hotels and restaurants Transport and storage, post and telecommunication Financial intermediation Real estate, renting and business activities Community, social and personal services

16 Release of TiV indicators Coverage 34 OECD countries, 23 non-members and rest of the world 18 industries, 1995, 2000, 2005, 2008, 2009 Indicators for each country, by industry and partner: 1. Gross exports (with decomposition) 2. Domestic V embodied in gross trade 3. Domestic V embodied in foreign final demand 4. Related balances, ratios and % of GDP 5. Revealed Comparative dvantages (RCs) in gross and V terms Other non-tiv indicators using the same ICIOs will be available (consumption-based CO2, Competitiveness and jobs)

17 OECD_WTO

18 Value-added embodied in exports Domestic V (Direct) Domestic V (Indirect) Reimported Domestic V Foreign V Export Foreign Industry and Households Import partners

19 Value-added embodied in foreign final demand Domestic V (Direct) Domestic V (Indirect) Direct exports Foreign Customers (final consumption) Foreign V Production networks abroad

20 Intermediate Imports used in exports Import partners Intermediate imports (REI) Intermediate imports Export Foreign customers Intermediate imports (V) / total exports Re-exported Intermediate imports / total intermediate imports Domestic customers

21 Important to Emphasise Results are estimates designed to highlight 2 key issues the need for policies to account for GVCs the importance of capacity building & better statistics - Mainstreaming ut require a number of assumptions and improving data quality is essential Coherent estimates of trade in goods and services (WPTGS), and improvements in balancing methods new approach to Supply-Use Tables (WPN) More countries, more years, more timely. With a focus on stages and trade rather than industries per se etter capturing firm heterogeneity (WPTGS/WPGI initiative). 21

22 Further information oecd/tiva MIWI 22