Abstract POLYPROPYLENE S CARBON FOOTPRINT: DIVERSE, WITH MAJOR SENSITIVITIES (April 2011)

Transcription

1 Abstract POLYPROPYLENE S CARBON FOOTPRINT: DIVERSE, WITH MAJOR SENSITIVITIES (April 2011) This study presents a cradle-to-gate carbon footprint of polypropylene (PP) from all its primary manufacturing routes as well as for biopolypropylene, which does not yet exist commercially (but is technically feasible). It shows that the diversity of manufacturing routes leads to a diversity of footprints footprints range by a factor of six, nearly an order of magnitude. Moreover, it identifies four modest sensitivities that can alter the footprint by some 20%, plus two major sensitivities that can change the footprint by almost 90%. The study identifies the potential footprint-leadership position that biopolypropylene could play, and points out a method by which steam crackers could drop their reported footprints by one-third to one-half. Compared to other reports on this topic, this report distinguishes itself from others in four ways: 1) it shows the diversity of polypropylene footprints that is driven by differences in raw materials and intermediate processes, plus the lesser diversity of polymerization processes; 2) it addresses the considerable sensitivities of the footprints; 3) it shows considerable detail, far more than either of the others and it does so with far more transparency; and finally, 4) it points out what may be significant errors in one of the other public studies on this topic. SRI Consulting Polypropylene s Carbon Footprint

2 CARBON FOOTPRINT INITIATIVE Polypropylene s Carbon Footprint: Diverse, with Major Sensitivities by Eric Johnson Sr. Advisor April 2011

3 SRIC agrees to assign professionally qualified personnel to the preparation of the Process Economics Program s reports and will perform the work in conformance with generally accepted professional standards. No other warranties expressed or implied are made. Because the reports are of an advisory nature, neither SRIC nor its employees will assume any liability for the special or consequential damages arising from the Client s use of the results contained in the reports. The Client agrees to indemnify, defend, and hold SRIC, its officers, and employees harmless from any liability to any third party resulting directly or indirectly from the Client s use of the reports or other deliverables produced by SRIC pursuant to this agreement. For detailed marketing data and information, the reader is referred to one of the SRI Consulting programs specializing in marketing research. THE CHEMICAL ECONOMICS HANDBOOK Program covers most major chemicals and chemical products produced in the United States and the WORLD PETROCHEMICALS PROGRAM covers major hydrocarbons and their derivatives on a worldwide basis. In addition the SRIC DIRECTORY OF CHEMICAL PRODUCERS services provide detailed lists of chemical producers by company, product, and plant for the United States, Western Europe, Canada, and East Asia, South America and Mexico.

4 CONTENTS 1 SUMMARY: A DIVERSE FOOTPRINT, WITH GREAT REGIONAL VARIATION MAJOR FINDINGS OF THIS STUDY Diverse Footprints, Set by Raw-Material-Process Diversity Hydrogen Credit for a Steam Cracker a Big Difference Major Regional Sensitivities for Oil and Gas Production If Incinerated, Biopolypropylene Shows the Lowest Footprint WHAT IS DIFFERENT ABOUT THIS STUDY? INTRODUCTION FOOTPRINTS IN ACTION: GUIDING PUBLIC, COMMERCIAL AND PERSONAL DECISIONS FOOTPRINTS OF CHEMICALS ARE IN DEMAND WHY POLYPROPYLENE? METHOD OF THIS STUDY METHODOLOGICAL GUIDANCE FUNCTIONAL UNIT (OR NORMALIZATION FACTOR) REPRESENTATIVENESS AVERAGE AND MARGINAL (ATTRIBUTIONAL AND CONSEQUENTIAL) CARBON EMISSIONS IN POLYPROPYLENE PRODUCTION: A DATA REVIEW RAW MATERIALS: CRUDE OIL, NATURAL GAS LIQUIDS AND VEGETABLE OIL Crude Oil Production of Crude Oil Transport of Crude Oil NGLs from Natural Gas Production of NGLs Transport of NGLs SRI Consulting iii Polypropylene s Carbon Footprint

5 CONTENTS (Continued) Vegetable or Animal Oil REFINERY STEAM CRACKER FEEDSTOCKS: NAPHTHA, ETHANE/PROPANE AND GAS OIL PROPANE FROM HYDROTREATING OF VEGETABLE OIL STEAM CRACKING Conventional Steam Cracker Yields and Allocations for Cost Analyses Steam Cracker Yields per Feedstock, by Mass Steam Cracker Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Unallocated REFINERY PROPYLENE UPGRADING REFINERY-GRADE TO POLYMER-GRADE PROPYLENE PROPANE DEHYDROGENATION TO PROPYLENE METATHESIS OF ETHYLENE AND BUTYLENES TO PROPYLENE POLYMERIZATION OF PROPYLENE TO POLYPROPYLENE PRODUCTION OF CO-MONOMER ETHYLENE ELECTRICITY AND OTHER UTILITIES ALLOCATION OF STEAM CRACKER FOOTPRINTS WHAT ALLOCATION DO FOOTPRINT GUIDELINES SUGGEST? ALLOCATION IN CHEMICAL-INDUSTRY PRACTICE Plastics Europe Allocation by Mass to All Products IEA Allocation by Mass to High-Value Chemicals Prime Olefins PRIMARY ALLOCATION METHODS ECONOMIC ALLOCATION, PARAMETERS USED AVOIDED-HYDROGEN-PRODUCTION CREDIT ANOTHER ALLOCATION METHOD POLYPROPYLENE S CARBON FOOTPRINT HOW IT WAS COMPILED SRI Consulting iv Polypropylene s Carbon Footprint

6 CONTENTS (Continued) MASS-YIELD FACTORS FOR CONVERSION PROCESSES CONVERSION OF RAW MATERIALS TO INTERMEDIATES PROCESSING OF INTERMEDIATES TO POLYMER-GRADE PROPYLENE POLYMER-GRADE PROPYLENE TO POLYPROPYLENE POLYPROPYLENE S FOOTPRINT: VARIATIONS BY RAW MATERIAL AND PROCESS CONVENTIONAL PROPYLENE, FROM CRUDE OIL AND GAS LIQUIDS UNCONVENTIONAL PROPYLENE, FROM METATHESIS AND VEGETABLE OIL POLYMERIZATION OF PROPYLENE TO POLYPROPYLENE SUMMARY FOOTPRINTS, CRADLE-TO-GATE POLYPROPYLENE SENSITIVITIES IN THE FOOTPRINT: ALLOCATION, DATA-SOURCE AND LOCATION ALLOCATION Conventional Allocation What about a Hydrogen Credit for Steam Cracker? SOURCE OF REFINING DATA LOCATION Electricity Footprints Crude Oil and NGL Footprint COMPARISON TO OTHER FOOTPRINT ESTIMATES OURS VERSUS THEIRS: FOOTPRINT FACE-OFF WHY ARE THEY SO DIFFERENT? Steam Cracker Balances The Problem of Process Methane Allocation Differences CAN BIOPOLYPROPYLENE COMPETE? SRI Consulting v Polypropylene s Carbon Footprint

7 CONTENTS (Concluded) 11 APPENDICES ALLOCATION GUIDANCE PAS 2050 Guidelines for Allocations (Excerpt from the Document) ISO Guidelines for Allocations DETAIL OF FOOTPRINT CALCULATIONS, METHOD AND GWPS Calculation, and Characterization of Global Warming Potential REFERENCES SRI Consulting vi Polypropylene s Carbon Footprint

8 FIGURES 1.1 Polypropylene, the Three Phases from Cradle to Gate Footprints of Conventional Propylene, by Manufacturing Stage Footprints of Unconventional Propylene Process Routes to Polypropylene Vegetable Oil to Biopropane, Reaction Diagramme Polypropylene, the Three Phases from Cradle to Gate Lowest to Highest Polypropylene Footprints, by Raw Material and Intermediate Footprints of Conventional Propylene, by Manufacturing Stage Footprints of Unconventional Propylene Footprints of Polymerization Only Crude-Oil Based Conventional Propylene, Footprints by Manufacturing Stage in Base Case and in Nigeria Comparison of SRIC, Plastics Europe, ecoinvent and Franklin Footprints SRI Consulting vii Polypropylene s Carbon Footprint

9 TABLES 1.1 Lowest to Highest Polypropylene Footprints, by Raw Material and Intermediate Steam Cracker GHG Emissions, Unallocated, with and without Avoided- Hydrogen Credit Sensitivities of the Polypropylene Footprint Leading Producers of Polypropylene Sources of Carbon Emissions Data for Production of Raw Materials Footprints of Crude Oil Production Transport Emission Factors for Crude Oil Transport Distances for Crude Oil Footprint for Transport of US Crude Oil Footprints of Gas-Based NGLs Production Footprint of Gas-Based NGLs Transport Footprints of Vegetable/Animal Oils Feedstocks for Steam Crackers Sources of Carbon Emissions Data for Refining of Steam Cracker Feedstocks Carbon Footprints of Refined Products Footprints of Biopropane Sources of Carbon Emissions Data, Steam Cracking to Produce Ethylene Yield of an Ethane-Fed Steam Cracker, as Reported in SRIC s PEP Calculation of Methane-Rich, Hydrogen-Rich Gases Energy Content Economics of Ethylene from Ethane, as Reported in SRIC s PEP Steam Cracker Mass Yields, by Feedstock Steam Cracker GHG Emissions, Unallocated, by Feedstock Steam Cracker GHG Emissions, Unallocated, by Feedstock (%) Change in Steam Cracker Footprint, from Shifting Power from US to Other Steam Cracker Countries Carbon Footprints of Refinery Propylene, Refining Only Carbon Footprint of Refinery-to-Polymer Propylene SRI Consulting viii Polypropylene s Carbon Footprint

10 TABLES (Continued) 4.23 Carbon Footprint of Propane Dehydrogenation to Propylene Carbon Footprint of Propylene from Metathesis Carbon Footprint of Polypropylene Polymerization Processes Electricity Footprints, Selected Regions, as Reported by ecoinvent ISO and PAS Guidelines for Allocation Possible Allocation Methods Percentage Allocations, by Method Economic Allocation Prices of Steam Cracker Products Steam Cracker Value Yields, by Feedstock Steam Cracker Value Yields, by Feedstock (%) Sources of Hydrogen for All US Refineries, Carbon Footprint, Steam-Reforming Natural Gas to Make Hydrogen Steam Cracker GHG Emissions, Unallocated, with and without Avoided- Hydrogen Credit Production and Internal Use of Refined Products, All US Refineries, Mass-Yield Factors Footprints of Intermediate Products, Which Are Further Processed to Polypropylene Fuel Footprints of Biopropane vs. Fossil NGLs Footprints of Polymer-Grade Propylene, Which Is Further Processed to Polypropylene Footprints of Polypropylene, Homo- and Co-Polymer Lowest to Highest Polypropylene Footprints, by Raw Material and Intermediate Footprints of Conventional Propylene, by Manufacturing Stage Footprints of Unconventional Propylene, by Manufacturing Stage Refinery Propylene to Polypropylene, Cradle-to-Gate Footprint Refinery Propane to Polypropylene via Dehydro, Cradle-to-Gate Footprint SRI Consulting ix Polypropylene s Carbon Footprint

11 TABLES (Continued) 7.5 Refinery Naphtha to Polypropylene via Steam Cracking, Cradle-to-Gate Footprint Refinery Gasoil to Polypropylene via Steam Cracking, Cradle-to-Gate Footprint Refinery NGLs to Polypropylene via Steam Cracking, Cradle-to-Gate Footprint Refinery Naphtha to Polypropylene via Steam Cracking and Metathesis, Cradle-to-Gate Footprint Refinery Gasoil to Polypropylene via Steam Cracking and Metathesis, Cradle-to-Gate Footprint Refinery NGLs to Polypropylene via Steam Cracking and Metathesis, Cradle-to-Gate Footprint Gas-Based Propane to Polypropylene via Dehydro, Cradle-to-Gate Footprint Gas-Based NGLs to Polypropylene via Steam Cracking, Cradle-to-Gate Footprint Gas-Based NGLs to Polypropylene via Steam Cracking and Metathesis, Cradle-to-Gate Footprint Biopropane to Polypropylene via Dehydro, Cradle-to-Gate Footprint Biopropane to Polypropylene via Steam Cracking, Cradle-to-Gate Footprint Biopropane to Polypropylene via Steam Cracking and Metathesis, Cradle-to-Gate Footprint Sensitivities of the Polypropylene Footprint Polypropylene Footprint Variation, by Steam Cracker Allocation Method Footprint Sensitivity to Steam Cracker Hydrogen Credit Polypropylene Footprint, Sensitivity to Refining Data-Source Power Footprint as % of Total Polypropylene Footprint, in Four Main Locations Change in Polypropylene Footprint (Compared to Base Case) Caused by Regional Power-Footprint Differences Polypropylene Footprints, Base Case vs. Nigerian Oil and Russian NGLs Comparison of SRIC, Plastics Europe, ecoinvent and Franklin Footprints SRI Consulting x Polypropylene s Carbon Footprint

12 TABLES (Concluded) 10.1 Bio vs. Fossil Polypropylene, Cradle-to-Gate Plus Incineration Footprints Global Warming Potentials Used in This Study SRI Consulting xi Polypropylene s Carbon Footprint