Protective Intelligence for Intelligent Cities. Mitigating the impact of malicious threats to businesses in urban environments

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1 Protective Intelligence for Intelligent Cities Mitigating the impact of malicious threats to businesses in urban environments

2 Vital statistics Estimated financial losses from significant malicious incidents in major cities. $98m NAIROBI WESTGATE MALL ATTACK, $72m ISTANBUL GEZI PARK/ TAKSIM SQUARE PROTESTS, $1.2bn OSLO VEHICLE-BORNE IED, $391m LONDON RIOTS, $1.8bn BANGKOK ANTI-GOVERNMENT PROTESTS, $113m MUMBAI TERRORIST ATTACKS,

3 Why protect cities? Cities are the driving force of economic progress in the 21st century. By 2030, cities will be home to nearly 70% of the global population. The biggest 750 cities already produce over 55% of the world s total estimated gross domestic product, and as well as being the centres of political and commercial power, strongly influence social and cultural trends. The effects of destruction and disruption in cities are therefore increasingly important. Businesses must now plan proactively for, mitigate and even prevent potential threat events. Actionable intelligence on a variety of malicious threats in cities has a vital role to play in protecting businesses that underwrite, construct, operate, secure and invest in cities from sustaining losses. Arup has significant global experience in actively shaping cities. Collaborating with architects, property developers and construction companies, we design commercial and residential properties, airports, railway stations, stadia, hotels and government buildings. As a key partner to organisations such as the Rockefeller Foundation s 100 Resilient Cities, C40 Cities, the Centre for the Protection of National Infrastructure and city governments around the world, we help to deliver secure and sustainable cities. We re a trusted advisor to national and metropolitan governments, investors, businesses and communities, helping design and engineer resilient cities.

4 World Cup Protest 8 by Ben Tavener Greeks Protest Austerity Cuts by Joanna

5 Our approach Urban environments are extremely complex and becoming increasingly so as cities grow in size. The nature and scale of malicious threats to businesses operating in cities is often unequal and always changing. At Arup, our Protective Intelligence service enables businesses investing or operating in urban environments to: accurately quantify and compare malicious threats to property, people or operations reduce the uncertainty of malicious threats in complex urban environments plan for several possible future threat environments identify emerging threats, enabling clients to be proactive rather than reactive reduce information overload to quickly identify the most relevant signals of changing threats decide which threats to mitigate, which to accept and which to protect against. Our multidisciplinary approach is what differentiates us. It allows us to augment our Protective Intelligence capabilities with a long-standing engineering design, blast modelling and non-malicious technical risk assessment capabilities, allowing us to produce accurate assessments of the commercial impact of malicious attacks.

6 Tahrir Square by Hossam el-hamalawy Nigeria Unrest bydiariocritico de Venezuela

7 Our methodology We collect intelligence on malicious threats from multiple sources. Having a presence in 85 cities worldwide enables us to obtain relevant local intelligence that informs analytical output, which we specifically tailor for each client. Our consultants closely monitor international, national, local and social media sources. We regularly receive input from our global network of offices and sub-consultants. We filter information we collect through a set of structured intelligence indicators. This enables us to determine which developments are likely to signal a change in the threat environment. We work hard to establish the provenance of the sources that we use to base our analysis and hypotheses on. Knowing which sources to trust underpins our analysis. Our team is multi-national, multilingual and multi-disciplinary in professional expertise. Our analysis is subject to rigorous challenge: we identify and test assumptions, we look for and utilise new methodologies, and we seek to reduce the impact of cognitive biases. We are independent and objective.

8 Our services and products Asset-specific threat and risk assessments In-depth security needs analysis of existing or planned buildings, infrastructure or mega-event venues. Intended to inform the architectural design or operation of those assets and to ensure best possible performance against a range of potential threats. Physical site selection Location-based assessments of malicious threats designed to reveal the strengths and weaknesses of selected urban plots for buildings or projects proposed by the client. Forward-looking tailored threat assessments Regularly updated assessments of likely emerging threats to specific assets and locations in urban environments, tailored to each client. Designed to provide early warning, as well as support decisions on how best to meet those threats. Tailored malicious threat indices Numerated expressions of malicious threats tailored to clients assets and locations in urban environments, enabling easier quantification and comparison of threats.

9 Future scenarios planning and horizon scanning Identification of potential future threat scenarios and their likely implications for clients. Each scenario identifies the intelligence indicators to monitor. This enables clients to make contingency plans for several possible futures and allocate resources accordingly. Estimated financial damage assessments of terrorism events Intelligence-led monetary value estimates of property damage caused by improvised explosive devices. This product is designed to enable more accurate quantification of damage for organisations who must price terrorism risks, or those who seek to demonstrate their property portfolio s reduced exposure to terrorism. Client-specific intelligence systems design/intelligence methodology training Tailored collection of intelligence and design of analysis systems to empower clients to collect, assess and analyse threat information relevant to their business. Designed to help clients build the infrastructure needed to identify signals of changing threats and enable them to respond faster. Counter party risk assessments Integrity and reputational due diligence on potential counter-parties that the client is looking to partner or do business with in the construction, infrastructure and property sectors.

10 Case studies Tailored forward-looking threat briefings for an international business with offices in the UK, 2015 Arup identified emerging and malicious threats to an international client s offices across the UK. We monitored indicators of changing terrorism, civil unrest, crime and reputational risks on a location-specific and assetspecific basis. This insight is used by the company s regional board to make decisions on how best to manage and mitigate exposure to malicious threats. Threat and vulnerability analysis for a data services centre in India, 2015 A major international financial services provider required a security review on a data centre in Maharashtra. Arup provided an assessment of malicious threats, analysing drivers of terrorism, civil unrest, conventional crime, and cyber-attacks. These malicious threats were mapped by target, type of attack and disruption caused including an assessment of possible financial loss. This enabled the client to make an informed decision on which areas to spend its security budget. Security briefing for employees of an international business travelling to Kenya, 2015 Arup was commissioned by an international business to provide a security briefing to its staff travelling to Nairobi and Kisumu on a weeklong multiple site visit. The briefing comprised a written report and a verbal presentation on potential threats to foreign nationals in Kenya. This included an analysis of crime and unrest hotspots in Nairobi as well as forward-looking intelligence on upcoming demonstrations. Arup monitored a range of open sources during the client s trip to advise on potential changes in the threat environment.

11 Probable Maximum Loss (PML) analysis for a highway in Mato Grosso, Brazil, 2014 Arup produced a probable maximum loss (PML) assessment for a major Brazilian developer that was awarded a public-private partnership contract to provide upgrading works for a tolled highway in Mato Grosso. The highway is a critical transport route for agricultural goods. Arup conducted a multi-hazard study to evaluate the likely maximum losses to the highway from a range of natural, technological and man-made hazards, including terrorism and civil unrest. Arup s PML assessment provided the client with an understanding of the Project s risk exposure, satisfying a key requirement by the lender, and enabled the concessionaire to purchase the necessary insurance cover. Security master planning for a government building in Baghdad, Iraq, 2013 Arup was commissioned by the Central Bank of Iraq to provide security consultancy services for its new headquarters building in Baghdad. Arup assessed the full spectrum of local and regional threats likely to affect the Bank s property, services and operations. This assessment informed the design of the building as well as a comprehensive security master plan for the Bank. References 1 Kenyan Insurance Regulatory Authority, 2013, 14uwetez/-/index.html 2 Turkish Interior Ministry, The Norway Post, Metropolitan Police, we_are_doing/corporate/4_days_in_august.pdf 5 Ace European Group 6 Insurance Information Institute Photographs World Cup Protest 8 by Ben Tavener, flickr.com/people/bentavener Greeks Protest Austerity Cuts by Joanna, flickr.com/people/piazzadelpopolo/ Tahrir Square by Hossam el-hamalawy, Nigeria Unrest by Diariocritico de Venezuela, flickr.com/people/diariocriticove/

12 About Arup Arup is the creative force at the heart of many of the world s most prominent projects in the urban environment. We offer a broad range of professional services that combine to make a real difference to our clients and the communities in which we work. We are truly global. From offices in 85 cities our 12,000 planners, designers, engineers and consultants deliver innovative projects across the world with creativity and passion. Founded in 1946 with an enduring set of values, our unique trust ownership fosters a distinctive culture and an intellectual independence that encourages collaborative working. This is reflected in everything we do, allowing us to develop meaningful ideas, help shape agendas and deliver results that frequently surpass the expectations of our clients. The people at Arup are driven to find a better way and to deliver better solutions for our clients. For further information please contact: Richard Bond richard.bond@arup.com We shape a better world.