Comisión Nacional de Hidrocarburos

Transcription

1 Comisión Nacional de Hidrocarburos Reserves Approval Guidelines United Nations Framework Classification for Fossil and Mineral Reserves and Resources UNFC Workshop Edgar Rangel-Germán Ulises Neri Flores Mexico City, Mexico Sept 27-28, 2012

2 Content Legal framework General process Reserves Approval Guidelines CNH s Resolutions 2012 Guidelines Conclusions 2

3 Content Legal framework General process Reserves Approval Guidelines CNH s Resolutions 2012 Guidelines Conclusions 3

4 Framework Reserves Regulatory Framework (Government, Regulatory Bodies) Company Guidelines EXPLORACION Y PRODUCCION Project Based Resource Framework PRMS SEC 4

5 Framework Reserves Regulatory Framework (Government, Regulatory Bodies) Company Guidelines EXPLORACION Y PRODUCCION Project Based Resource Framework PRMS SEC 5

6 Legal Framework Ley Orgánica de la Administración Pública Federal (Article 33, XX) The energy ministry (SENER) will register and publish, based on the information of CNH, the reserves, according to the studies, assessment, quantification, and certifications. Ley de la CNH (Article 4, II y X) Some of CNH s attributions: To participate with SENER in determining the policy for reserves replacement. To perform studies of evaluation, quantification and verification of reserves. Reglamento de la Ley Reglamentaria del Artículo 27 Constitucional en el Ramo del Petróleo (Article 10) The final reports by independent certifying parties must be OK ed by CNH. Evaluation reports by PEMEX and quantification must be approved by CNH. Based on information from the CNH, SENER will register and publish the country's hydrocarbon reserves. 6

7 Content Legal framework General process Reserves Approval Guidelines CNH s Resolutions 2012 Guidelines Conclusions 7

8 General process Estimates and hires certifications of Mexico s reserves. Pemex CNH OK s reports of certifying parties Approval of Pemex reports Registers the reserves values Publishes the reserves SENER 8

9 Content Legal framework General process Reserves Approval Guidelines CNH s Resolutions 2012 Guidelines Conclusions 9

10 Reserves Guidelines Reserves Approval Guidelines Resources Approval Guidelines 10

11 Reserves Guidelines Obtain Technical elements needed to perform studies of evaluation, quantification and verification. Establish Calendar of procedures, steps and requirements that Pemex and independent third parties must observe before submitting their reports. Assess Consistency between Pemex assessments and independent third parties (less than 10% at the regional level). Document Professional profile and independence of third parties.

12 Reserves Guidelines 12

13 Content Legal framework General process Reserves Approval Guidelines CNH s Resolutions 2012 Guidelines Conclusions 13

14 Reserves Resolution 2010 Approved the reports of assessment and quantification of reserves of Pemex for the 1P, 2P and 3P categories of the Northeastern Marine Region, Southwestern Marine Region and Southern Region. Approved the 1P reserves of the Northern Region. The differences between Pemex s figures and the certifying company s figures were greater than 10% for the 2P and 3P categories for the Northern Region. A specific review procedure was established. 14

15 Specific review procedure Vol Pemex s Reserves Vol Vol Pemex s Certifier s Reserves Reserves 10% Technical Economic Production Prices Opex Capex x + NPV $ Static Model Dynamic Model Productivity Model Development Plan Economic Analysis 15

16 Reserves Resolution 2011 Approved the reports of assessment and quantification of reserves of Pemex for the 1P, 2P and 3P categories of the Northeastern Marine Region, Southwestern Marine Region and Southern Region. Approved the 1P reserves of the Northern Region. The differences between Pemex s figures and the certifying company s figures were greater than 10% for the 2P and 3P categories for the Northern Region. The Commission concluded that the differences were contingent resources in the Chicontepec Asset. 16

17 Reserves Resolution 2011 Approved the reports of assessment and quantification of reserves of Pemex for the 1P, 2P and 3P categories of the Northeastern Marine Region, Southwestern Marine Region and Southern Region. Approved the 1P reserves of the Northern Region. The differences between Pemex s figures and the certifying company s figures were greater than 10% for the 2P and 3P categories for the Northern Region. The Commission concluded that the differences were contingent resources in the Chicontepec Asset. 17

18 Reserves Resolution 2012 The 1P reserves were also sanctioned at Administrative Unit (Asset) level. Mexico s oil reserves as of January 1st 2012, were sanctioned by the CNH. For the first time, the 1P reserves were sanctioned at the Administrative Unit level. The hydrocarbon volumes were approved for all the Administrative Units. Also, for the first time the CNH approved the 2P and 3P reserves of the four administrative Regions including Chicontepec (contain several recommendations issued by CNH and SENER). The Administrative Unit Abkatun Pol Chuc required further analysis, but finally approved

19 CNH s Resolutions Resolutions issued by the CNH Reserves 1P Reserves 2P and 3P Comments 2010 Resolution Reserves for all Region were approved The Northern Region was not approved The 2P and 3P of the Northern Region required further analysis; differences >10% 2011 Resolution Reserves for all Regions were approved The Northern Region was not approved The 2P and 3P of the Northern Region required further analysis; differences > 10% (contingent resources) 2012 Resolution Reserves for all Administrative Units (assets) but Abkatun Pol Chuc were approved All the regions were approved The Administrative Unit Abkatun Pol Chuc required further analysis, but finally approved 19

20 Content Legal framework General process Reserves Approval Guidelines CNH s Resolutions 2012 Guidelines Conclusions 20

21 Elements Reviewed Analyisis level Criteria of the review process Timeline Reports Others Oil Gas BOE Differences (percentage) Region Level Administrative Unit Level Meetings Documents Deliverables Visits Formats Pemex Certifier Contracts Simpler processes

22 Elements Reviewed Analyisis level Criteria of the review process Timeline Reports Others Oil Gas BOE Differences (percentage) Region Level Administrative Unit Level Meetings Documents Deliverables Visits Formats Pemex Certifier Contracts Simpler processes

23 Analysis level Analysis level Oil Gas BOE The analysis will focus on the identification and assessment of the differences between the figures provided by the independent third parties and Pemex, for all categories, and these products: oil, gas and crude oil equivalent. Derived from: Resolution of the CNH Governing Body. Attention to the observations of external auditors for the public sector. Consultations with operating companies, certifiers, consultants and regulators. 23

24 Criteria of the review process Criteria of the review process Differences (percentage) Region Level Administrative Unit Level The analysis will focus on the identification and assessment of the differences between the figures provided by independent third parties and Pemex < 10% (first criterion). For 1P reserves, the anaylisis will be at the level of Administrative Unit. The analysis level for 2P and 3P reserves will be Region, For the following products: oil, gas, crude oil equivalent. CNH will consider the impact of the net value of the differences between Pemex and the certifier compared with regional and national total. (Second criterion). 24

25 Criteria of the review process First Criterion Vol Pemex s Reserves Vol Vol Pemex s Certifier s Reserves Reserves 0.10 Second Criterion Vol Vol Pemex s Pemex s 1P Reserves Vol Pemex s 2P Reserves Vol Pemex s Vol Cert1fier s National Reserves1P Vol Cert1fier s National 2P Reserves 1P Reserves 2P Reserves Third Criterion Analysisof CNH s Board A specific review procedure 25

26 Analysis Criteria Level of Analysis Product Percentage to define the criterion for the differences Administrative Unit 1P National absolute share of the value of the volume of the differences Oil 10% 5% Gas 10% 5% BOE 10% 5% Oil 10% 5% Region 2P and 3P Gas 10% 5% BOE 10% 5% 26

27 Guidelines comparison Main characteristics Aggregation level BOE Oil Gas BOE Level of the ruling Only one criterion Administrative Unit >10% Region>10% Two criteria First > 10% Second, if the difference impacts > 5% of the national reserve Administrative process Complex Simple Reports of information Pemex only Pemex and Certifier use the same format 27

28 Guidelines comparison

29 Applying the first criterion DIFFERNCES OIL RESERVES GAS RESERVES RESERVES (BOE) MMbls MMMcf MMbls 1P 2P 3P 1P 2P 3P 1P 2P 3P Región Marina Noreste < 10 % < 10 % < 10 % < 10 % < 10 % > 10 % < 10 % < 10 % < 10 % Cantarell Close to 10% < 10 % < 10 % Ku Maloob Zaap < 10 % < 10 % < 10 % Región Marina Suroeste < 10 % < 10 % < 10 % < 10 % < 10 % < 10 % < 10 % < 10 % < 10 % Abkatún Pol Chuc > 10 % > 10 % > 10 % Litoral de Tabasco < 10 % < 10 % < 10 % Región Norte < 10 % < 10 % Close to 10% < 10 % < 10 % < 10 % < 10 % < 10 % < 10 % Aceite Terciario del Golfo < 10 % > 10 % < 10 % Burgos > 10 % < 10 % < 10 % Poza Rica Altamira < 10 % < 10 % < 10 % Veracruz > 10 % < 10 % < 10 % Región Sur < 10 % < 10 % < 10 % < 10 % < 10 % < 10 % < 10 % < 10 % < 10 % Bellota Jujo < 10 % < 10 % < 10 % Cinco Presidentes < 10 % < 10 % < 10 % Macuspana Muspac < 10 % < 10 % < 10 % Samaria Luna < 10 % < 10 % < 10 % 29

30 Applying the second criterion: 1P National share of the differences Pemex vs Certifiers 1P Administrative Unit Cantarell Ku Maloob Zaap Abkatún Pol Chuc Litoral de Tabasco Aceite Terciario del Golfo Burgos Poza Rica Altamira Veracruz Bellota Jujo Cinco Presidentes Macuspana Muspac Samaria Luna OIL RESERVE National share of the differences GAS RESERVE RESERVE (BOE) 1P 1P 1P All of the differences were less than 5% 30

31 Applying the second criterion: 2P and 3P National share of the differences among Pemex vs Certifiers 2P and 3P NATIONAL SHARE OF THE DIFFERENCES Northeastern Marine Region OIL RESERVES GAS RESERVES BOE RESERVES 1P 2P 3P 1P 2P 3P 1P 2P 3P Southwestern Marine Region Northern Region Southern Region All of the differences were less than 5% 31

32 Official 1P reserves P Reserves (mmb pce) Production 32

33 Official 2P and 3P Reserves P Reserves (mmb pce) 3P Reserves (mmb pce) 33

34 Conclusions For the first time in the history of Mexico, there s an independent agency that reviews the process of Pemex and the certifying companies. For the first time in history, Mexico s reserves numbers are within 10% of those calculated by third parties. Current guidelines are the result of improvements to the previous guidelines. Collaboration between CNH, Sener and Pemex allowed identification of the elements that needed to be reviewed. These improvements allow us to have higher (reasonable) certainty in the hydrocarbon reserves. The new guidelines contain elements that are clearer and that are fully accepted by all the entities involved in this process: CNH, Pemex and SENER. The new guidelines allow better analyses and avoid unnecessary revision processes. 34

35 Conclusions Reserves Regulatory Framework (Government, Regulatory Bodies) Company Guidelines EXPLORACION Y PRODUCCION Project Based Resource Framework UNFC PRMS SEC 35

36 Conclusions Reserves Approval Guidelines Technical Economic Production Prices Opex x NPV $ Capex + Static Model Dynamic Model Productivity Model Development Plan Economic Analysis 36

37 Thanks! 37