Third IEF - IGU Ministerial Gas Forum Panel Session 2: Enhanced dialogue and cooperation for strengthened energy security.

Transcription

1 Third IEF - IGU Ministerial Gas Forum Panel Session 2: Enhanced dialogue and cooperation for strengthened energy security November 2012

2 Contents 1. Background National framework Infrastructure Injection points and imports capacity 2. Change of paradigm LNG 2008 Strategy in Mexico Natural gas prices 3. New Strategy Gas pipeline expansion in Mexico Shale gas around the World Shale gas production in Mexico

3 Background: National framework Natural Gas Industry in Mexico Upstream Downstream Acid gas Ethane, Butane Naphtha Transport Storage Distribution Sour gas Sweetening plants Cryogenic plants Dry gas Residential Industrial Imports: CFE, PGPB and privates Services

4 Background: Infrastructure Total existing pipelines in ,542 km Total gas processing plants in Ensenada ROSARITO LOS ALGODONES NACO * GLORIA A DIOS EL SUECO CHÁVEZ SANTA CATARINA 1 LOS RAMONES ESTACIÓN 19 EL CARACOL 1. Reynosa Burgos 2. Arenque 3. Poza Rica 4. Matapionche 5. Coatzacoalcos 6. La Venta 7. Nuevo Pemex 8. Ciudad Pemex 9. Cactus LOS INDIOS EL SAUZ 2 CEMPOALA Altamira LERDO 3 CHIMANECA SNG pipelines (9,753 km) Private pipelines (1,789 km) LNG terminals Compression stations * Sistema Naco-Hermosillo VALTIERRILLA Manzanillo EMILIANO ZAPATA CÁRDENAS CD. PEMEX*

5 Background: injection points and imports capacity TIJUANA MEXICALI LOS ALGODONES NACO NOGALES NACO- AGUA PRIETA AGUA PRIETA CD. JUÁREZ SAN AGUSTÍN VALDIVIA Acuña, Coahuila Injection point Agua Prieta, Sonora Altamira, Tamaulipas ENSENADA LNG import capacity Operating MANZANILLO CD. ACUÑA PIEDRAS NEGRAS ALTAMIRA CD. MIER- MONTERREY GULF TERRA KINDER MORGAN TETCO TENNESSEE RIO BRAVO Argüelles, Tamaulipas Cd. Juárez, Chihuahua Ensenada, Baja California Gloria a Dios, Chihuahua Los Algodones, Baja California Mexicali, Baja California Monterrey, Nuevo León Naco, Sonora Nogales, Sonora Piedras Negras, Coahuila Reynosa, Tamaulipas Río Bravo, Tamaulipas Pemex pipelines Private pipelines Source: CRE. June 2012.

6 Change of Paradigm: LNG 2008 strategy in Mexico In 2008 Mexico s natural gas supply strategy considered several LNG projects Ensenada LNG projects in 2008 Puerto Libertad Topolobampo El Dorado Altamira Yucatán Manzanillo Operating Lázaro Cárdenas In tender Projected Salina Cruz The USA was also contemplating the construction of 42 regasification plants, in order to meet the projected demand.

7 Change of paradigm Natural gas strategy changed dramatically as a result of the shale gas revolution in the USA. In 2011, shale gas represented 30% of total natural gas production in the USA. Shale gas new wells initial production (cubic feet per day) 70 U.S. natural gas production by source (billion cubic feet per day) 60 4, % 3,700 2,700 1,770 1,400 1,500 1, Source: Simmons & Company, Perspectives on the Eagle Ford, November Shale gas 40 Tight gas 30 Alaska Non-associated offshore 20 CBM Associated 10 Non-associated onshore Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2012.

8 Change of paradigm: Natural gas prices 2012*/2007** $10.31/6.06 Holland TTF $3.90/6.30 Southern California $ 3.69/6.72 Nymex Henry Hub $13.30/8.25 China $13.15/8.50 Japan $10.54 UK NBP $12.66/6.62 Italy PSV $3.61/6.30 Reynosa $4.55 Algonquin $10.35 Germany EGT $10.05/8.00 India $13.15/7.50 South Korea * October , spot prices (USD/MMBtu) ** September 2007, spot prices (USD/Mmbtu) A substantial increase in the supply of this fuel in the USA, as well as in its reserves, has radically altered international relative prices, making North America the region with the world's cheapest gas. Source: Pemex Gas y Petroquímica Básica and the Platts International Gas Report.

9 New Strategy: Gas pipeline expansion in Mexico ,928 km km km km ,041 km ,221 km +500 MMCFD +1,470 MMCFD +670 MMCFD +1,606 MMCFD +2,100 MMCFD 6,326 MMCFD Final network 15,498 km +42% D C Investment 7,826 MMUSD Compression stations B A B C D El Castillo (2012) Golfo (2014) San Rafael (2014) Los Ramones (2014) A

10 New Strategy: Shale gas around the world Mexico has a great potential to exploit shale gas. At the current production rate, shale gas could boost up natural gas reserves up to 60 years. Technically Recoverable Shale Gas Resources (trillion cubic feet tcf) China 1,275 USA 862 Argentina 774 Mexico 681 South Africa 485 Australia 396 Canada 388 Algeria 231 Brazil 226 Poland 187 France 180 India 63 UK 20 Source: World Shale Gas Resources: An Initial Assessment of 14 Regions Outside the United States, Energy Information Agency (EIA) USA. April 2011.

11 New Strategy: Shale gas production in Mexico 18,000 16,000 Million cubic feet daily 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 Net imports Domestic demand The NES scenario has a greater production of natural gas, related to shale gas exploitation, reducing imports. Even when domestic demand raises. 6,000 National production 4, '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23 '24 ' ,000 16,000 Million cubic feet daily In contrast, in the BAU scenario, exploitation of shale gas is limited, as a result imports will increase in order to supply domestic demand, which is also driven down by a limited offer. 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 Net imports Domestic demand National production 4, '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23 '24 '