Estimated prevalence of learning disabilities in Lincolnshire

Transcription

1 Estimated prevalence of learning disabilities in Lincolnshire According to research by Lancaster University around 2.4% adults in the UK have some form of learning disability 1. The same source estimates that around 0.5% of the adult population suffers from moderate or severe learning disability. People with moderate and severe disabilities are most likely to engage with adult social care services. Table 1 shows the estimated prevalence of severe or moderate learning disability according to Emerson and Hatton. Learning disabilities prevalence rates decrease with age as the average life expectancy for people with learning disability is shorter than for the general population. Differences between the 2012 and 2021 rates are a reflection of projected changes in mortality patterns (both increased survival rates of young people with severe and complex disabilities and reduced mortality among older adults with learning disabilities). Table 1. Estimated prevalence rates of severe and moderate learning disability in England Age range % in 2012 % in Source: Eric Emerson and Chris Hatton, Estimating Future Need/Demand for Supports for Adults with Learning Disabilities in England, June 2004 We have applied the estimated prevalence rate to the ONS 2012 mid-year population estimates 2 to model the number of people with learning disabilities across Lincolnshire in We have also used ONS projected population figures for to project the number of people with learning disabilities in Eric Emerson and Chris Hatton, Estimating Future Need/Demand for Supports for Adults with Learning Disabilities in England, June

2 Table 2. Estimated and projected number of people aged 18 and over with severe and moderate learning disability in Lincolnshire Area % change* Boston % East Lindsey % Lincoln % North Kesteven % South Holland % South Kesteven % West Lindsey % Lincolnshire % The estimated prevalence rates are higher when including all types of disability (mild, moderate and severe) as shown in Table 3. Table 3. Estimated prevalence rates of severe, moderate and mild learning disability in England. Age range 2012 (%) 2021 (%) Source: Eric Emerson and Chris Hatton, Estimating Future Need/Demand for Supports for Adults with Learning Disabilities in England, June 2004 Again, we have applied the estimated prevalence rates for all levels of learning disability to the ONS mid-year population estimates for 2012 and modelled numbers of people with learning disabilities in Lincolnshire in We have also applied the estimated prevalence rates for 2021 to ONS population projections for 2021 to model future numbers of people with learning disabilities in Lincolnshire. 2

3 Table 4. Estimated and projected number of people aged 18 and over with severe, moderate or mild learning disability in Lincolnshire Row Labels % change* Boston % East Lindsey % Lincoln % North Kesteven % South Holland % South Kesteven % West Lindsey % Lincolnshire % As these estimates do not allow consideration of younger age groups, we have also estimated numbers of children with learning disabilities using separate methodology. For children aged 7-15 we have used a rate of 3.2%, which is the average rate for children identified as School Action Plus or with a Statement of Special Educational Need with a primary SEN associated with learning disabilities 4. In very early childhood, only severe learning disabilities are likely to be apparent. We have therefore assumed that the prevalence of learning disabilities at age two years and below is 0.05% (rate of severe learning difficulties for children) rising in incremental steps each year for the ages 3 to 6. Prevalence rates for 16 and 17 year have been set at the rate for years olds in the table 3. Table 5. Estimated rates of learning disability in children used to create table 6. Age range (%) Source: Emerson, Hatton at all, People with Learning Disabilities in England 2011; Service and Support We have applied the estimated prevalence rates to the ONS mid-year population estimates and modelled numbers of people aged under 18 with learning disabilities in Lincolnshire in We have also applied the estimated prevalence rates for 2021 to ONS population projections for 2021 to project future numbers of under 18's with learning disabilities in Lincolnshire. 4 Emerson, Hatton at all, People with Learning Disabilities in England 2011: Service and Support 3

4 Table 6. Estimated and projected number of people aged under 18 with learning disability in Lincolnshire Row Labels % change* Boston % East Lindsey % Lincoln % North Kesteven % South Holland % South Kesteven % West Lindsey % Lincolnshire % The figures in tables 2 and 4 have been calculated by applying research-based estimates of prevalence to the population numbers in Lincolnshire. The prevalence calculated from cases known to adult social care was 0.37% for people aged and 0.17% for those aged 65 and over in March 2013 in Lincolnshire 5. We know however that only a fraction of adults with learning disability will be currently in receipt of services from adult care. Eligibility to services is based on needs not on the level of impairment. Data from GP practices registered 2,894 people with learning disabilities in Lincolnshire 6. This is around 0.5% of the registered population or 5 cases per 1,000 population. The number is quite similar to the estimation in table 2. However there is no clarity if general practitioners record all levels of learning disability or all ages of patients. Recent work with GP registers in Lincolnshire suggests underreporting across all the age groups and levels of severity, and inconsistency across practices. The prevalence rate for people with a learning disability who also display challenging behavior is 0.045% of the population aged 5 and over. Applying this rate to the Lincolnshire adult population gives an estimated number of around 250 cases of people with learning disabilities in the county who also display challenging behavior. The prevalence of autistic spectrum disorder (ASD) is estimated to be 1.0% of the adult population 7 in England, using the threshold of a score of 10 on the Autism Diagnostic Observation Schedule to indicate a positive case. The rate among men (1.8%) is estimated to be much higher than that among women (0.2%). It is estimated that over 4,000 people aged may have ASD in Lincolnshire. The figure may be as high as 6,500 when including people aged over 65. Some of those will also have learning disabilities and will be included into the previously estimated figure (Table 4).The National Autistic Society states that "Estimates of the proportion of people with autism spectrum disorders (ASD) who have a learning disability, (IQ less than 70) vary considerably, and it is not possible to give an accurate figure". Some people with ASD may be intellectually able, but still need some level of support from services due to social difficulties. It is estimated that 5.9 per 10,000 of the general population aged 16 and over have Down's syndrome 8. The prevalence of Down's syndrome according to Clinical and Health Outcomes Knowledge Base was 6.6 cases per 10,000 populations in 2005 (rate based on the live birth rate). We have used the higher estimate to model the number of people aged under 18 and lower estimated rate to estimate number of people with Down's syndrome who are aged between 18 and 64 over. Note that the average life 5 Lincolnshire county council, Adult care performance team, May QMAS database /12 data as at end of July Adult Psychiatric Morbidity Survey 2007, Health and Social Care Information Centre, September Mantry, D., et al, The prevalence and incidence of mental ill-health in adults with Down syndrome, Journal of Intellectual Disability Research, 52(2), February

5 expectancy for people with Down's syndrome is approximately 59 years 9. For people aged 65 and over we have used rate of 0.36 per 10,000. This last estimate is based on the numbers of people with Down's syndrome recorded on the Sheffield Learning Disability Case Register in October The estimated prevalence rates have been applied to the ONS mid-year population estimates for We have also applied those rates to ONS population projections for 2021 to project future numbers of people with Down's syndrome in Lincolnshire. Table 3. Estimated and projected number of people with Down's syndrome in Lincolnshire Age Under and over 6 7 Total Created by the Public Health Intelligence Team, September 2013 Public Health Intelligence Team Lincolnshire County Council Orchard House Orchard Street Lincoln LN1 1BA Tel PH_intelligence@lincolnshire.gov.uk This document had been created in line with Lincolnshire Public Health Charter Glasson et al, The changing survival profile of people with Down's syndrome: implications for genetic counselling,