Detecting credit cycle and setting countercyclical capital buffer in the Czech Republic. Jan Frait Executive Director Financial Stability Department

Transcription

1 Detecting credit cycle and setting countercyclical capital buffer in the Czech Republic Jan Frait Executive Director Financial Stability Department 2nd Policy Research Conference of the ECBN Ljubljana, 30 September 2016

2 I. Macroprudential policy and the approach to deciding upon the countercyclical capital buffer

3 Macroprudential policy tools in the Czech Republic (1) Capital conservation buffer pertaining to all banks in a full amount of 2.5% CET1 is required from July 2014 onwards. Systemic risk buffer applied to all exposures of domestic banks on the basis of their systemic importance from November 2014 onwards. Currently covering 5 institutions with SRB rate ranging from 1 to 3%. Recommendation on the management of risks associated with the provision of retail loans secured by residential property. Current upper LTV limit on individual loans of 100% will be reduced to 95% on 1 October 2016 and to 90% on 1 April Current aggregate limit of 10% of new loans with an LTV of 90% 100% will change to a limit of 10% of new loans with an LTV of 85% 95% on 1 October The aggregate limit will be set at 15% of new loans with an LTV of 80% 90% on 1 April

4 Macroprudential policy tools in the Czech Republic (2) Countercyclical capital buffer announced quarterly since August Current setting at 0%, planned setting at 0,5% from January Tightening bias communicated in recent quarterly decision. Current and announced CCyB rate for the Czech exposures (% of total risk exposure) /16 04/16 07/16 10/16 01/17 04/17 07/17 10/17 Current CCyB rate Announced CCyB rate 4

5 Two (and a half) credit booms and one bust thus far First credit boom in early 1990s was followed by deep banking crisis and subsequent sector restructuring with sharp deleveraging. Second credit boom of had benign consequences. Third credit surge may have started recently. Credit cycle in the Czech Republic ( , in %) I/93 I/96 I/99 I/02 I/05 I/08 I/11 I/ credit growth (MA) credit-to-gdp (rhs) Note: Total bank credit used in both series as a proxy for credit. 5

6 Cyclical behaviour in the Czech economy ( , y-o-y in %) 40 Three upswings in residential real estate prices Both upswing and current upswing associated with mortgage credit drifts. The bubble of driven purely by joining-the-eu expectations I/99 II III IV I/04 II III IV I/09 II III IV I/14 II GDP growth real estate prices credit growth, IRI Nore: Offer prices for Prague residental real estate. 6

7 Two complementary approaches to setting CCyB A) ESRB recommendation guided by BCBS advise: Credit-to-GDP gap Benchmark buffer rate(s) Buffer guide CCyB rate B) Answering four layers of fundamental questions: Is there too much of credit in the economy? Where do we stand in the credit cycle? Is credit going up too fast/slow? Are lending conditions loose/tough? Why credit goes up/down? Is credit growth synchronized with changes in sentiment/optimism in general economy? Is credit growth economy-wide or sector-specific? If sector-specific, do we have better tools? What is the appropriate CCyB rate given the setting of other tools? What could be the next move in CCyB rate (forward guidance)? 7

8 II. Credit-to-GDP and its gaps: Do we really have too much of credit/credit boom?

9 Credit-to-GDP gap guide BCBS* recommends using common reference guide for setting the CCyB based on the aggregate private sector credit: A gap between currently observed value and the calculated long-term trend of total private sector credit to GDP. Countercyclical capital buffer (deviation in pp; rate in % of RWA) Total private sector credit = all loans provided to the private sector + the volume of bonds issued by the private sector. For calculation of the long-term trend, the BCBS/ESRB suggests using the Hodrick-Prescott filter with a high smoothing parameter Deviation of credit-to-gdp ratio from trend Hypothetical CCB rate (rhs) * BCBS: Guidance for national authorities operating the countercyclical capital buffer. BIS, December 2010, pp. 4 and 8. 9

10 Deciding upon CCyB in ESRB recommendation ESRB/2014/1* recommendation approach: Mandatory standardised credit-to-gdp gap and standardised benchmark buffer rate (both calculated on the basis of BCBS guidance) plus optional standardised benchmark rate not calculated wtih BCBS guidance. Optional additional credit-to-gdp gap plus additional benchmark rate. Selected buffer guide from the two benchmark rates. Final CCyB rate after applying guided discretion. Standardized credit-to-gdp gap (BCBS methodology) Additional credit-to-gdp gap (nat. methodology) Benchmark buffer rate (Recc. B3(a), BCBS calc.) Benchmark buffer rate (Recc. B3(b), nat. calc.) Benchmark buffer rate (Recc. B3(c), BCBS or nat. calc.) Buffer guide Discretion * Recommendation of the European Systemic Risk Board of 18 June 2014 on guidance for setting countercyclical buffer rates (ESRB2014/1). CCyB rate 10

11 Do (did) we have a credit boom in CZ? Estimates of credit-to-gdp gap for 4Q 2015 published in ESRB Risk Dashboard 6/2016 suggest so (shortage of credit elsewhere?). 11

12 Do (did) we have a credit boom in CZ? Estimates of credit-to-gdp gap for 1Q 2016 published in ESRB Risk Dashboard 9/2016 looks benign. 12

13 Standardised credit-to-gdp gap for the CZ Standardised credit-to-gdp gap has signaled the need for non-zero CCyB rate from the start of global financial crisis until recently. The longest available time series for total credit starts in Credit-to-GDP in the Czech Republic and its trend (estimated by HP filter, lambda = ; %) Credit-to-GDP gap and hypothetical CCyB rate (deviation in pp; right axis: rate in % of RWA) /96 03/00 03/04 03/08 03/12 03/16 Credit-to-GDP Credit-to-GDP trend (1995-) /06 03/08 03/10 03/12 03/14 03/16 Deviation of credit-to-gdp ratio from HP trend Hypothetical CCyB rate (rhs) Notes: Trend (1995-) estimated by HP filter, lambda =

14 Additional credit-to-gdp gap for the CZ CNB s additional credit-to-gdp based on shorter time series (2004 Q1 onwards) not including transitional-crisis period. Non-zero CCyB rate signalled for the period of global financial crisis only. Credit-to-GDP in the Czech Republic and its trend (estimated by HP filter, lambda = ; %) Credit-to-GDP gap and hypothetical CCyB rate (deviation in pp; right axis: rate in % of RWA) /96 03/00 03/04 03/08 03/12 03/16 Credit-to-GDP Credit-to-GDP trend (1995-) Credit-to-GDP trend (2004-) /06 03/08 03/10 03/12 03/14 03/16 Deviation of credit-to-gdp ratio from HP trend Hypothetical CCyB rate (rhs) Notes: Trend (2004-) estimated by HP filter, lambda =

15 Bank credit-to-gdp gap for the CZ Alternative additional credit-to-gdp (not formally applied now) gap based on bank credit only does not change the picture. Non-zero CCyB rate signaled for the crisis- and post-crisis period only. Bank-credit-to-GDP in the Czech Rep. and its trend (estimated by HP filter, lambda = ; %) 60 Bank-credit-to-GDP gap and hypothetical CCyB rate (deviation in pp; right axis: rate in % of RWA) /96 03/00 03/04 03/08 03/12 03/16 Bank-credit-to-GDP Bank-credit-to-GDP trend (1995-) /06 03/08 03/10 03/12 03/14 03/16 Deviation of bank-credit-to-gdp ratio from HP trend Hypothetical CCyB rate (rhs) Notes: Trend (1995-) estimated by HP filter, lambda =

16 Expansionary bank credit-to-gdp gap for the CZ Bank credit-to-gdp gap with trend estimation based on analysis of local extremes: provides a proper signal for the period of sustained credit growth prior to the crisis, not for the initial stage of credit drift. Bank-credit-to-GDP in the Czech Rep. and its trend (estimation based on analysis of local extremes, %) Bank-credit-to-GDP gap and hypothetical CCyB rate (deviation in pp; right axis: rate in % of RWA) /96 03/00 03/04 03/08 03/12 03/16 Bank-credit-to-GDP Bank-credit-to-GDP trend (1995-) /06 03/08 03/10 03/12 03/14 03/16 Deviation of bank-credit-to-gdp ratio from trend Hypothetical CCyB rate (rhs) Notes: Trend estimation based on analysis of local extremes. Calculated gap is regarded as expansionary credit-to-gdp gap in some CNB publications (e.g. FSR 2015/2016). 16

17 Reasons behind having additional/alternative credit-to-gdp gap in CZ High initial credit-to-gdp and banking sector restructuring/deleveraging in late 1990s/early 2000s. Write-offs of non-performing loans from banks balance sheets, etc. Changes in the composition of credit to the private sector after 2000 (household/housing credit became a driver of growth in banking sector). Credit-to-GDP in the Czech Republic (%) 90 Stock of bank credit to private non-financial sector in the Czech Republic (CZK billions) /96 03/00 03/04 03/08 03/12 03/16 Credit-to-GDP 0 03/96 03/00 03/04 03/08 03/12 03/16 Non-financial corporations Households 17

18 Reason behind focusing mainly on bank credit Development of total credit to private sector driven by development of bank loans. Bank loans represent more than 60% of total credit in the economy. Early availability and high quality of data for bank credit growth. Loans from non-bank intermediaries represent less than 10%. Debt securities role in debt composition of nonfinancial corporates increases over time. Composition of credit to private non-financial sector in the Czech Republic (as % of total credit to private non-financial sector) Bank loans to households Bank loans to non-financial corporations Non-bank loans to households Non-bank loans to non-financial corporations Debt securities issued by non-financial corporations Part of external funding to non-financial corporates is provided by foreign parent firms. 18

19 Deciding upon CCyB through guided discretion Credit-to-GDP gap not a reliable guide to setting the CCyB rate in CZ case (as in many other cases). Selecting the buffer guide from benchmark buffer rate does not make sense (we can toss a coin instead). Credit-to-GDP gap Benchmark buffer rate Buffer guide CCyB rate? Answering fundamental questions through both composite and simple indicators of financial cycle, credit dynamics and systemic risk changes. Making decision through discretion guided by multiple-factor analysis. 19

20 A comprehensive assessment needed Credit-to-GDP ratio is only a rough proxy for leverage in the economy. Approximates the position of a given economy in the credit cycle only loosely, may suffer from significant lags. Filtered long-term trend of credit/gdp ratio cannot capture turning points of credit cycle well. May not provide timely information on a need for a policy reversal. Credit-to-GDP over financial cycle Credit dynamics (e.g. y-o-y growth) period of financial exuberance period of financial distress period of financial exuberance period of financial distress time CCyB set to zero again time long-term normal level of credit-to GDP turning point (start of crisis): credit-to-gdp still very high, but policy has to change sharply CCyB set at maximum 2,5 % CCB set to zero 20

21 Filters, credit-to-gdp and credit trends Practical issues in the application of BCBS methodology are generally stemming from unavoidable nature of the credit-to-gdp ratio (fluctuates due to changes in both credit and GDP and it may thus be not so easy to interpret), considerable lag between changes in economic conditions and leverage adjustments, properties of the HP filter. Specifically, methodology for setting the CCyB rate through filtering credit-to-gdp may not be fully appropriate for converging economies with trend in credit-to-gdp (financial deepening), it is surely not appropriate for countries previously experiencing lasting credit boom (or maybe credit bust afterwards) either. 21

22 III. Assessing credit cycle and setting countercyclical buffer rate

23 Do we have too much debt in CZ? Cross-country comparison of combined NFCS and household debt in ESRB Risk Dashboard 6/2016 does not suggest so. 23

24 Excessive level of credit in CZ? Czech Republic has lower level of credit-to-gdp than most advanced economies when compared at similar level of economic development (measured by GDP per capita). Credit-to-GDP for similar level of economic development (GDP per capita, PPP current international $, CZ 2015 = USD) Source: World Development Indicators, World Bank. 24

25 CNB s comprehensive assessment Composite Financial Cycle Indicator (FCI). Assessment of the set of sectoral indicators with emphasis on: bank credit growth (stocks, new lending, genuinely new lending) bank lending standards, residential property prices misalignment, macroeconomic imbalances (not an issue in recent years), economic and financial sentiments. Communication including forward guidance regarding the CCyB future path (for capital planning in institutions). Under construction linking calibration of the CCB rate to estimates of future losses in banking sector from stress testing. 25

26 Where do we stand in the credit cycle? Financial Cycle Indicator (FCI) developed for capturing systemic risk build-up and detecting the stage in financial cycle (Plašil et al., 2014). Showing risks related to the Aggregate FCI and credit risk materialisation (FCI value; right-hand scale: CZK billions) /04 03/06 03/08 03/10 03/12 03/14 03/16 Aggregate FCI Year-on-year NPL differences (rhs) financial cycle in their build-up phase, i.e. before they get materialize. Simple device understandable to a wider audience, used also for communication purposes. May serve as a tool for assessing the need to set the non-zero CCB (if credit-to-gdp gap does not serve well). Expert judgment still essential! 26

27 Logic of Financial Cycle Indicator FCI follows methodology of the composite indicator of systemic stress. The FCI and its decomposition /04 03/07 06/09 09/11 12/13 03/16 Credit - HHs Property prices Debt / op. surplus Credit cond. - NFCs CA deficit / GDP Credit - NFCs Debt / disp. income Credit cond. - HHs PX50 Contrib. of correlation FCI Source: Authors calculations using CNB and CZSO data Note: The negative contribution of the cross-correlation structure to the FCI value (the loss due to imperfect correlation of the subindicators) is due to the difference between the current FCI value and the (potential) upper bound which assumes perfect correlation between all indicators. Negative contributions indicate a generally weak correlation between the subindicators. Set of variables expressing the cyclical swings in risk signals in the financial and real sectors (e.g. credit growth, property prices, lending, conditions, debt burden, external balance) capturing also the links between both sectors. FCI takes into account mutual correlation of all variables. Selection of variables based on the expert judgement but it also reflects existing literature and data availability/quality. 27

28 Atlernative version of Financial Cycle Indicator Removing effect of mutual correlations from FCI may assist early recognition of starting credit boom. Aggregate FCI and assumption of mutual correlation (FCI value; right-hand scale: FCI value) /04 03/06 03/08 03/10 03/12 03/14 03/16 Aggregate FCI Aggregate FCI (without mutual correlation effect, rhs) 28

29 Are lending conditions too soft? General lending standards in the Czech Republic (difference in market share of banks in pp) -10 An easing of banks lending standards indicates a shift to a more expansionary phase of the cycle. Perceived benefits of low loan interest rates may significantly boost the interest of households and firms in new loans Interest rates on new koruna loans to private nonfinancial sector (%) /12 06/13 06/14 06/15 06/16 Housing loans Sole proprietors Source: Bank lending survey, CNB Consumer and other loans Non-financial companies Note: The data represent the difference between the market share of banks that reported a tightening of the credit standards and banks that reported an easing of the credit standards in the past three months. More information on the indicator methodology can be found on the CNB website /12 06/13 06/14 06/15 06/16 Non-financial corporations Households - housing loans Households - consumer loans 29

30 Is stock of credit growing too fast and in which segments? Credit growth has responded to economic recovery and decline in lending rates. Both corporate and mortgage lending is increasing considerably, consumer credit recovering after years of stagnation. Year-on-year growth in bank loans to private nonfinancial sector (%) /12 06/13 06/14 06/15 06/16 Non-financial corporations Households - housing loans Households - consumer loans 30

31 Is new lending going up too fast and in which segments? Data on dynamics of new lending provide mixed signals. Both new lending and genuinely new lending (adjusted for refincing of existing loans) in household sector exhibit fast growth. Year-on-year growth in new koruna loans to private non-financial sector (%) 60 Year-on-year growth in genuinely new bank loans to private non-financial sector (%) /12 06/13 06/14 06/15 06/16 Non-financial corporations Households - housing loans Households - consumer loans Notes: Year-on-year rates of growth are smoothed by the 3-month moving average /15 06/15 09/15 12/15 03/16 06/16 Non-financial corporations Households - housing loans Households - consumer loans Notes: Year-on-year rates of growth are smoothed by the 3-month moving average. 31

32 Is credit growth high in historical terms? Comparing current credit growth with historical averages/medians useful for getting the big picture and for communication. May suffer from low basis distortion. Year-on-year growth in total loans to private nonfinancial sector (historically) (%) 25 Year-on-year growth in bank loans to private nonfinancial sector (historically) (%) /06 03/08 03/10 03/12 03/14 03/16 Year-on-year growth in total loans Year-on-year growth in total loans (10y average) Year-on-year growth in total loans (10y median) Notes: Total loans contain all loans provided to private non-financial sector and debt securities issued /06 06/08 06/10 06/12 06/14 06/16 Year-on-year growth in bank loans Year-on-year growth in bank loans (10y average) Year-on-year growth in bank loans (10y median) 32

33 Is there room for a loop between property prices and credit? The apartment prices have been undergoing considerable recovery. The indicators of affordability and sustainablity have been deteriorating. Transaction and asking prices of housing (annual percentage changes) I/12 I/13 I/14 I/15 I/16, CZSO Housing transaction prices Apartments transaction prices (tax returns) Apartments transaction prices (survey) Apartments asking prices Apartment price sustainability indicators (average for = 100 a) I/12 I/13 I/14 I/15 I/16 Price-to-average wage Price-to-disposable income Mortgage repayments-to-average wage Price-to-rent (right-hand scale) a) For the mortgage repayments-to-average w age ratio = 100 due to limited availability of data on interest rates on new loans for house purchase. Source: CZSO, CNB, Institute for Regional Information

34 Are real estate prices becoming too high? The risk of residential property prices becoming significantly overvalued is on the rise. The formalised CNB approach combines four statistical and econometric models: overall, it indicates overvaluation of apartment prices up to 5% in 4Q 2015, however, there is a strong regional dimension (prices in Prague and Brno are most overvalued). Alternative estimates or apartment price gaps (%; positive values indicate overvaluation, negative values undervaluation) /01 12/03 12/05 12/07 12/09 12/11 12/13 12/15 Supply and demand model Adjusted price-to-income ratio Adjusted price-to-rent ratio Accelerator model Source: CZSO, IRI, MRD, EC, CNB calculation 34

35 What is the appropriate CCyB rate? Identification of excessive borrowing and accumulation of risks according to various indicators 03/06 03/07 03/08 03/09 03/10 03/11 03/12 03/13 03/14 03/15 03/16 (1) Credit-to-GDP gap, HP f ilter ( , λ = ) (2) Credit-to-GDP gap, HP f ilter ( , λ = ) (3) Credit-to-GDP gap, banks, HP f ilter ( , λ = ) (4) Credit-to-GDP gap, banks, HP f ilter ( , λ = ) (5) Credit-to-GDP gap, expansiv e credit gap (6) Financial cy cle indicator (FCI) (7) Financial cy cle indicator (FCI) without mutual correlation (8) Nominal y ear-on-y ear growth in bank loans to residents Legend: Excessive credit growth Elev ated credit growth For indicators 1-4: credit-to-gdp gap > 2 pp for excessive growth, > 0.7 pp for elevated growth. For indicator 5: expansive credit gap > 2 pp for elevated growth, > 3 pp for excessive growth. For indicator 6: excessive growth for FCI > 0.4, elevated growth for FCI > 0.2. For indicator 7: excessive growth for sum of FCI parts > 0.5, elevated growth for sum of FCI parts > 0.3. For indicator 8: y-o-y growth > 5 pp for elevated growth, > 10 pp for excessive growth. Note: The current bounds of indicator 8 ref lect statistical base ef f ects f rom past y ears and changes in the inf lation rate during v arious periods. Outcome of guided discretion based on comprehensive assessment. Conditional upon setting and perceived efficiency of other tools. Has to take into account the CCyB setting in external environment. Sectoral structure of credit growth important. CCyB applied solely to exposures to specific sector is worth a discussion. 35

36 IV. Communicating decisions on countercyclical buffer rate

37 CCyB rate increase in CNB s communication The CNB set CCyB rate for local exposures at above-zero level for the first time at its December 2015 meeting on financial stability issues. 0.5% rate will be applicable from January rd country doing so (after Norway and Sweden). Bank credit growth essential for the decision assessed stronger but not excessive (therefore only 0.5% rate set). Communicated grounds for decision: Identification that the Czech economy has shifted within the financial cycle to a phase of stronger credit recovery accompanied by an easing of bank lending standards. Accelerated speed in which private sector accumulates debt leading to higher vulnerability to sudden economic shocks. Increasing risk of a spiral between property prices and loans used to finance property purchases (with combination of an economic recovery and very low lending interest rates being a driver). 37

38 Forward guidance on CCyB rate setting Forward guidance provided following every decision on setting CCyB rate: Q3 2014: Given the current predictions of future credit growth and developments on the relevant markets the property market in particular it will probably not be necessary to apply a non-zero CCyB rate in the next two years. Q3 2015: Given the accelerated credit dynamics, loosening of credit standards and growth in investment sentiment, the probability of a zero CCyB rate being set in the next two years has further decreased. Q4 2015: Should the acceleration of credit growth, easing of credit standards and growth in investor optimism continue, the CNB will stand ready to increase the CCyB rate further. Q2 2016: If credit growth remains high, credit standards ease further and investor optimism continues to grow, the CNB will stand ready to increase this buffer rate further. 38

39 Some concluding remarks Being forward-looking and responsive to prospective risks is a key to success. Hope is not the strategy. Luck is a precondition for success in policy-making, but you have to help it. Use opportunity windows. Should the CCyB action be controversial or have high probability of resistance: Start to signal the intention well ahead (at best in good times). Talk about it with all stakeholders and public. Set the requirement relatively soft at the start if necessary (you can make it tougher once people get used to it). 39

40 Thank You for Your Attention Contact: Financial Stability Department in the CNB: financial.stability(at)cnb.cz CNB: Financial Stability Reports, various issues - available at Jan Frait Financial Stability Dept. Czech National Bank Na Prikope 28 CZ Prague jan.frait(at)cnb.cz