21ST-CENTURY EDUCATION OPTIMIZED

Transcription

1 21ST-CENTURY EDUCATION OPTIMIZED A Wikistrat Crowdsourced Simulation April 2015

2 2 21st-Century Education Optimized Education has become the great discriminator. Higher education is not only believed to be of benefit to the individuals who receive it, it is generally considered a key building block in a nation s overall economic, social and political development. Minimum levels of education in the modern world are substantially greater than those required in earlier eras and the competition between nations in this regard is growing ever more heated. With globalization removing restrictions on cross-border trade, and technology decoupling both manufacturing and services from the local markets, a nation s approach to and success in educating its population increasingly defines how well that society is able to function in the global economy. At an individual level, the impact of one s education on jobs, career paths and life choices has never been greater. In a ten-day crowdsourced simulation, more than 50 Wikistrat analysts from around the world developed scenarios identifying trends in the overall economy, technology and society that will impact educational methods, programs and policies in the future. At the onset of the simulation, 21 separate scenarios were developed exploring major economic, social and technological trends that will drive changes in the way people are educated in the future. A second phase, generating some 25 separate scenarios, described how education will change in the future, including how students are taught; how educational organizations have changed; and what is the impact of these changes on the economy, labor market, society, and politics and government. This report is organized around the three major themes that arose from the simulation: The Opportunity and Challenges in Technology and Education The Relationship Between Education and the Job Market The Impact of Globalization ABOUT US Wikistrat is the world s first crowdsourced consultancy. It leverages a global network of subject-matter experts via a patent-pending Collaborative Competition methodology to provide a variety of analytic services. Scenario generation, policy planning, risk assessment and red-teaming exercises are conducted by Wikistrat on a realtime, interactive online platform. Commercial in Confidence Copyright 2015, Wikistrat Inc. All Rights Reserved. Patent Pending.

3 1 TECHNOLOGY AND EDUCATION The most repeated and discussed issues related to the evolving relationship between technology and education. There was a general belief that technology affords an opportunity to enhance education by allowing cost-efficient flexibility, customization and personalization of education programs. Not only will web-based technology allow unprecedented access to education, it can facilitate virtually unlimited participation in lectures, readings and user forums, allowing a new kind of community interaction between students, professors and teaching assistants. It also affords the possibility of introducing new teaching modalities, such as the use of interactive gaming techniques, into the curriculum. This, of course, is not without challenges. Educational institutions have been especially slow to embrace new technology, integrate it into their teaching programs and adapt their business models. Web-based education programs are becoming more widely available, but there are questions about content, accreditation, legitimacy and susceptibility to fraud. There is also substantial resistance from old-line educators who not only question the efficacy of new technology, but whose livelihoods are directly threatened. Massive Open Online Courses (MOOCs) are an increasingly important educational resource. First introduced in 2008, distance learning continues to expand as computer technology penetrates emerging markets, students and teachers become more familiar with online tools and techniques, and MOOCs are legitimized as an accredited learning method. Artificial intelligence (AI) and robotic teachers become a kind of force multiplier, allowing personalized education programs to become widespread. Initially, this trend simply increases the efficiency of teaching particular subject matter, but over time, it shifts control away from large school bureaucracies, dramatically reduces costs and improves distribution of the most current educational information. However, the long-term impact of these technologies on the creativity, social cohesion and employment of humans in education is poorly understood at best. Digital textbooks, 3D printing, the use of games and other knowledge dissemination, and learning techniques not only reduce costs, but allow reading materials, tools and a variety of interesting material to be transferred quickly and efficiently to students. While this raises a host of legal questions about licensing and intellectual property protection, it also introduces design creativity and massive cost savings into the educational environment. Human interaction remains important. The digital world may offer fast-paced, interactive and engaging experiences, but it does not totally replace the social experience of collective learning with peers and not all students are psychologically or behaviorally suited to learn in the digital environment. While some argue for a blended learning environment, there are few ideas advanced on how this can or should be accomplished. Advancing the role of technology not only improves the flexibility, reach and effectiveness of education, it is also seen as the leading opportunity to reduce costs worldwide. Technology creates new, cost-effective ways to transfer knowledge and hence creates economic opportunities to the less fortunate. In fact, using technology to replace existing teachers has become the only way to reduce the price of education, which has been rising far faster than inflation and creating a significant burden on younger generations.

4 2 The introduction of new technology into the classroom continues to be slowed by current stakeholders who correctly believe they have much to lose by the introduction of MOOCs, artificial intelligence and other technologies. Many of these technologies impact the current workforce and educators, particularly those in the higher levels of education. In advanced economies like the United States (U.S.), France and other Western European countries, the interests of educators are well-entrenched. Those who stand to lose jobs, income and position in the highly lucrative ecosystem of modern education continue to resist these efforts. The pedagogical value of MOOCs, AI and other online education programs continues to be questioned. While some believe that technology holds great potential to allow individuals to broadly explore a wide range of topics throughout their lifetime, others doubt the social impact of highly individualized education programs conducted independently of human contact. A failure to introduce technology in a progressive, strategic, inclusive way could inevitably lead to scenarios where technology is slowed at first by resistant stakeholders, until a tipping point is reached. This tipping point, most likely to be forced by the difficult economics of higher learning, then creates the predicates for a rapid change with an even greater disruptive effect. Commercial in Confidence Copyright 2015, Wikistrat Inc. All Rights Reserved. Patent Pending.

5 3 EDUCATION AND JOBS The role of education particularly higher education is a central theme in the consideration of a life quality. At its core, the question comes down to whether education, as William Deresiewicz once put it, should be more about learning or about success. There is a divide between education systems designed to better qualify the next generation of global laborers (as one writer put it) and those that see opportunities largely through technology to enhance general learning, train people to address societal problems and support the education of polymaths. The majority of such systems focus on improving the connection between education and jobs. From a top-down perspective, the importance of education for the sake of employability emerges as the focus of how broad economic, technological and social trends shape education. In essence, education develops into a kind of super-vocational training, without really addressing the implications of pushing out generations of students into a volatile skills marketplace answering solely to the desiderata of the immediate job market. From a more bottom-up perspective, the value of higher education as a route to employment comes into question. Observations and concerns about the role of education in creating knowledgeable, well-rounded citizens remain quite general, in sharp contrast to the nuts-and-bolts applications of education for the sake of employment. Technology s ability to generate flexible learning opportunities and focused skill training, allowing individuals to quickly acquire the skills necessary to address the requirements of a particular position, is still uncertain. This continues to pose challenges for defining the adequacy of the approach, standardizing recognition of technology-based proficiency, and creating a global mechanism for standardization of learning or certification earned this way.

6 4 THE IMPACT OF GLOBALIZATION While globalization certainly factors into the development of modern educational institutions, its impact on the overall structure of education appears to be largely in place. Motivated by jobs in the global economy and frustrated by the slow pace of change at home, students in less developed and unstable regions continue to seek education abroad. Despite the technological opportunities afforded by distance learning, talented youth in the emerging nations of sub-saharan Africa and Asia seek their tertiary education in the globally recognized universities of Europe and the U.S. Widespread and largely free dissemination of knowledge generates a backlash. Over time, unions, guilds and other intellectual property owners act to secure specialized knowledge to protect their own jobs. This takes the form of labor cartels, systematic withholding of knowledge and increased licensing standards. Some globalized systems of education, training and accreditation are developed. While these approaches do improve the ability of students to obtain employment anywhere, they remain highly problematic to implement. Globalization has not limited the potential to reach underserved minorities and women. Even relatively minor improvements in education still have significant potential to not only empower women and minority groups, but also to counter fundamentalism and terrorist threats. Commercial in Confidence Copyright 2015, Wikistrat Inc. All Rights Reserved. Patent Pending.

7 5 STRATEGIC TAKEAWAYS No true paradigm shifts were forecast, and the current trend towards linking education with employment is expected to continue. This implies that generalized learning and education, divorced from the rewards of degrees issued from accredited institutions and/or various forms of certification, will continue to be less important than pedagogy as a pipeline to jobs. Despite the focus on jobs, one consequence of knowledge becoming freely and widely available across the globe is that it will depress the value and wages of so-called knowledge workers, continuing the exportation of jobs away from wealthy countries and consequently reducing the post-school employment value of receiving a higher education. In the coming decades, technology will allow equal access to information. While this will provide knowledge and information, it will eventually cause major disruptions in the business of education, though it won t necessarily change the content of educational programs. Modern education s focus on test-taking skills, rote learning and intense competition for admission to colleges and universities was not significantly challenged, except to raise questions on the overall affordability of tertiary education. This is likely to lead to a generation that is less creative, less culturally adaptable, less honest, and less well-rounded. Globalization s impact on the system of education is already established only the scale and scope will increase.

8 6 ATTRIBUTIONS [cover] This work, cover, is a derivative of Google Glass on a model s head, by Tim.Reckmann, licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported license. Redesigned adaptable classroom with movable furniture, for the necessities of the lesson; design introduced in the Modelo TEC21. Técnologico de Monterrey, Mexico City Campus. by Thelmadatter, licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported license., and A University of Salford exhibition at the Manchester Science Festival will follow in the footsteps of Monty Python by asking: What has the Internet has ever done for us? by the University of Salford Press Office, licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 2.0 Generic license.. cover is licensed under CC by Sheila Elizan. Commercial in Confidence Copyright 2015, Wikistrat Inc. All Rights Reserved. Patent Pending.

9 21ST-CENTURY EDUCATION OPTIMIZED Written by: Douglas Olin Edited by: Eva Dubinsky This report is based on the collaborative effort of more than 50 Wikistrat analysts held in December April 2015