LECTURE NOTES CONTENTS

Transcription

1 PART I: Exchange Rates LECTURE NOTES CONTENTS Chapter I: Foreign Exchange Markets I. Introduction to the Foreign Exchange Market 1.A An Exchange Rate is Just a Price 1.A.1 Equilibrium Exchange Rates and Foreign Exchange Risk II. Currency Markets 2.A Organization 2.A.1 Settlement of transactions 2.A.2 Activities 2.A.3 Players and Dealing in Foreign Exchange Markets 2.A.3.i Dealers, Market Makers and Brokers 2.B The Products of the Foreign Exchange Market 2.B.1 The Spot Market 2.B.1.i Direct and Indirect Quotations 2.B.1.ii Cross-rates 2.B.2 The Forward Market 2.B.2.i Forward Premium and Forward Discount 2.B.3 The Foreign Exchange Swap Market 2.B.4 Newspaper quotes 2.C Other Instruments to Manage Currency Risk 2.C.1 Currency Futures 2.C.2 Currency Options III. Looking Ahead Chapter II: The International Monetary System I. Exchange Rate Systems 1.A Flexible Exchange Rate System 1.B Fixed Exchange Rate System 1.C Other Exchange Rate Systems 1.D Different Policy Tools: A Comparison of Fixed and Flexible Exchange Rate Regimes 1.E Central Bank Intervention 1.E.1 Central Bank Intervention: Some Issues II. An Overview of the Modern International Monetary System 2.A The Gold Standard 2.B Bretton Woods Agreements ( ) 2.C Managed floating system and the G-7 Council 2.D Europe's Exchange Rate Mechanism and the Euro III. Looking Ahead

2 Chapter III: Exchange Rates, Interest Rates, Inflation and Expectations I. Interest Rate Parity Theorem (IRPT) 1.A Covered interest arbitrage 1.B The Forward Premium and the IRPT 1.C IRPT with Bid-Ask Spreads 1.C.1 Bid s Bound: Borrow Domestic Currency 1.C.2 Ask s Bound: Borrow Foreign Currency 1.D Synthetic Forward Rates 1.E IRPT: Evidence II. Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) 2.A Absolute PPP and the Law of one price 2.A.1 Real v. Nominal Exchange Rates 2.B Relative Purchasing Power Parity 2.C PPP: Implications 2.D PPP: Evidence 2.F PPP: Two practical applications III. International Fisher Effect (IFE) 3.A Arbitrage in Perfect Financial Markets 3.B PPP and IFE 3.C IFE: Implications 3.D IFE: Evidence IV. Expectations Hypothesis of Exchange Rates 4.A Expectations Hypothesis: Implications 4.B Expectations Hypothesis: Evidence 4.C Explanations for the Forward Bias 4.C.1 Risk Premium 4.C.2 Errors in Forming Expectations 4.C.3 The "Peso Problem" V. Looking Ahead Chapter IV: Structural Models of Exchange Rates Deermination I. Balance of Payments (BOP) Approach 1.A. The BOP 1.B The Balance of Trade as a Determinant of Exchange Rates 1.C The Absorption Approach to the Balance of Trade 1.D The Monetary Approach to the BOP 1.E BOP Approach: Implications II. Asset Approach 2.A Monetary Approach 2.A.1 A Simple Monetary Approach Model 2.A.2 A More Sophisticated Monetary Approach Model 2.A.3 Monetary Approach: Implications III. Structural Models: Evidence IV. The Martingale-Random Walk Model 4.A Efficient Markets

3 4.B Martingale-Random Walk Model: Implications 4.C Martingale-Random Walk Model: Evidence 4.D Simple Tests of the Martingale-Random Walk Model V. Looking Ahead Chapter V: Forecasting Exchange Rates I. Forecasting Exchange Rates 1.A Fundamental Approach 1.A.1 Fundamental Approach: Forecasting at Work 1.A.2 Fundamental Approach: Evidence 1.B Technical Approach 1.B.1 Technical Analysis Models 1.B.2 Technical Approach: Evidence II. Looking Ahead: Exchange Rate Volatility 2.A J.P. Morgan's RiskMetrics Approach 2.B Using Forecasts of the Variance: Value-at-Risk (VAR) 2.B.1 Calculating a VAR Appendix V: Basic Forecasting Models A.I Forecasting from Econometric Models A.II Forecasting from Time Series Models A.III Forecasting Using a Combination of Methods A.IV Stationarity and Trends in Macroeconomic and Financial Data PART II: Currency Risk Management Chapter VI: Currency Risk Management: Futures and Forwards I. Futures and Forward Currency Contracts 1.A Futures and Forwards Contracts in Risk Management 1.A.1 Forward Contracts 1.A.2 Futures Contracts 1.A.2.i Margin requirements 1.A.2.ii Newspaper Quotes 1.B The Value of a Futures Contract II. Hedging with Futures Currency Contracts 2.A Choice of Hedge Ratio: Naïve Approach (Equal Opposite Position) 2.A.1 Changes in V t 2.B Choice of Hedge Ratio: Optimal Hedge Ratio 2.B.1 Basis risk 2.B.2 Derivation of the optimal hedge ratio 2.B.3 OLS estimation of hedge ratios 2.B.4 A different approach: ARCH Models at Work 2.C Choice of Futures Contracts

4 2.C.1 Delta-hedging 2.C.2 Cross-Hedging III. Looking Ahead: Currency Options Chapter VII: Currency Risk Management: Options I. Currency Options 1.A Options: Brief Review 1.A.1 Currency Options 1.A.2 Factors Affecting Currency Option Prices (premium) 1.B Trading in Currency Options 1.B.1 Newspaper Quotes II. Hedging with Currency Options 2.A Dynamic Hedging with Options 2.A.1 Using Delta to Measure the Exposure of a Trader 2.A.2 Gamma 2.B Hedging Strategies 2.C Exotic Options 2.C.1 Barrier Options: Knock-outs/Knock-ins III. Looking Ahead: Which hedging technique is better? Appendix VII: Options: Black-Scholes and The Different Instruments A.VII.1 Binomial Model: Derivation of the Black Scholes formula A.VII.1.A One-period formulation A.VII.1.B Two-periods formulation A.VII.1.C T-period problem A.VII.2 The Black-Scholes formula A.VII.3 The Different Instruments Chapter VIII: Currency Risk Management at the Firm Level I. Transaction Exposure: A Comparison of Hedging Techniques 1.A Measuring Transaction Exposure 1.A.1 Range Estimates of Transaction Exposure 1.B Managing Transaction Exposure 1.B.1 External Methods: Futures/Forwards, Options, and Money Market Hedges 1.B.1.i Using Options with Different Strike Prices: Case Study: Ruggeri SA 1.B.2 Internal Methods 1.B.2.i Risk Shifting 1.B.2.ii Currency Risk Sharing 1.B.2.iii Risk Shifting 1.B.2.iv Currency Risk Sharing II. Translation Exposure 2.A Measuring Translation Exposure

5 2.A.1 Current Method 2.A.2 Temporal (Monetary/Nonmonetary) Method 2.A.3 Current Rate Method 2.A.4 Functional and Reporting Currency 2.B Managing Translation Exposure III. Economic Exposure 3.A Measuring Economic Exposure 3.B Managing Economic Exposure IV. Other Hedging Techniques Used by Firms 4.A Leading and Lagging 4.B Funds Adjustments IV. Should a Firm Hedge? 4.A Hedging is Irrelevant: The Modigliani-Miller Theorem 4.B Hedging Adds Value 4.B.1 Investors might not be able to replicate an optimal hedge 4.B.2 Hedging as a tool to reduce the risk of bankruptcy 4.B.3 Hedging as a tool to reduce investment uncertainty PART III: International Equity Markets Chapter IX: International Equity Markets I. General Overview and Differences 1.A Liquidity 1.A.1 Measures of Size 1.A.1.i Capitalization/GDP 1.A.1.ii Transaction volume 1.A.1.iii Degree of concentration found in the major markets 1.A.2 The bid-ask spread 1.B Taxes 1.B.1 Tax Neutrality 1.C Stock Market Benchmarks 1.C.1 International Stock Indexes 1.C.2 Domestic Indexes 1.D Stock Index Futures and Options: Hedging Market Risk 1.D.1 Stock Index Futures 1.D.1.i Changing Beta 1.D.2 Stock Index Options II. Market Microstructure 2.A Basic Organization 2.B Differences in Trading Procedures 2.B.1 Cash versus futures markets 2.B.2 Fixed versus continuous quotation 2.B.3 Computerization 2.C Internationalization III. Practical Aspects

6 3.A Dual-Listing 3.A.1 American Depositary Receipts (ADRs) 3.A.1.i The mechanics of ADRs 3.A.1.ii Types of ADRs 3.B Financial Analysis and Valuation 3.B.1 The information problem 3.B.1.i Quality of information 3.B.1.ii Comparative analysis 3.B.2 Stock market valuation 3.B.2.i Company valuation IV. Looking Ahead Chapter X: International Equity Markets: Factors, Interrelations and Integration I. Why Do Investors Care about International Equity Markets? 1.A Lower risk 1.B Expected Returns are Unaffected 1.C Staying at Home: The Home Bias 1.D Problems with International Diversification II. International Capital Market Integration 2.A Evidence from Closed-end Country Funds III. Reducing the Complexity of International Investing I: Country Analysis 3.A Country Risk Analysis 3.A.1 Risk Rating Method 3.A.2 The Prince Model 3.A.2.i Political Risk Factors 3.A.2.ii Background Data 3.A.2.iii The Prince Political Forecasting System IV. Reducing the Complexity of International Investing II: International Factors and Linkages 4.A Domestic versus International Factors 4.A.1 Currency Factor and Hedging 4.B Linkages between Stock Markets 4.B.1 The Crash of October B.2 Interrelations 4.B.2.i Leads and Lags 4.B.2.ii High Volatility, Correlations and Portfolio Choice V. Looking Ahead Chapter XI: Emerging Stock Markets I. Global Investing and Emerging Markets II. The Re-Emergence of "Emerging Markets" 2.A Diversification of Risk and Potential Growth

7 2.A.1 Low correlations with Developed Markets 2.A.2 High returns and high volatility 2.B Forces behind the Growth of Emerging Markets 2.C Openness and Costs III. Country Funds and ADRs IV. Integration of Emerging Markets V. Another Characterization of Emerging Markets VI. Contagion PART IV: International Bond Markets Chapter XII: International Bond Markets I. Introduction to International Bond Markets 1.A Euromarkets 1.A.1 Origins of Euromarkets 1.A.2 Eurocurrency Markets 1.B Eurobonds: Some Descriptive Statistics 1.B.1 Borrowers 1.B.2 Size and Instruments 1.C Type of Bond Instruments II. Eurobond Markets 2.A Historical development of the Eurobond Market 2.B Characteristics of Eurobonds 2.B.1 Issue Procedures in the Eurobond Market 2.B.1.i Organization of a Traditional Eurobond Syndicate 2.B.1.ii Selecting a Lead Manager 2.B.1.iii Fee Structure for new Eurobond Issues 2.B.1.iv Traditional Time Schedule for a New Offering 2.B.1.v Gray Market 2.B.1.vi Stabilization 2.B.1.viiVariations on Issuing Procedure 2.B.2 U.S. Legal Aspects of Eurodollar Bond Issues 2.B.3 Eurobond secondary market 2.B.4 The Global Bond III. Foreign Bond Markets 3.A Yankee Bonds 3.B DEM Eurobonds and DEM Foreign Bonds 3.C Samurai Bonds and JPY Eurobonds 3.D Swiss Franc International Bonds IV. Differences Among Bond Markets 4.A Issuing Techniques 4.B Dealing 4.C Quotations 4.D Yields 4.E Legal Aspects V. Bonds Indexes

8 VI. Why Do Investors Care About International Bonds? 6.A Benefits from International Diversification 6.B The Impact of Currency Hedging VII. Looking Ahead Appendix XII: Review of Bond Techniques and Related Concepts A.XII.1 Bond Prices and Yields A.XII.1.i Yield-to-maturity A.XII.1.ii Yield curves A.XII.1.iii Forward interest rates. A.XII.iv Valuing a bond with coupons A.XII.1.v Sinking Fund A.XII.1.vi Duration A.XII.1.vii Accrued Interest A.XII.1.viii Convertible Bonds and the Global Premium A.XII.1.ix Call Options A.XII.1.x Quality Spreads A.XII.2 Specific International Techniques A.XII.2.i International yield comparisons A.XII.2.ii Implied forward exchange rates A.XII.2.iii Implied Forward Exchange Rate on a Par-Yield Curve A.XII.2.iv Implied Forward Exchange Rate: Applications Chapter XIII: International Bond Markets: Pricing and Hedging I. Pricing and Selection of a New Eurobond Issue 1.A Information 1.A.1 Borrowing Requirements 1.A.2 Preliminary Analysis of the Issue 1.A.3 Market Conditions 1.A.4 Perception of the Issuer 1.B Evaluation 1.C Case Studies 1.C.1 Pricing a New Straight Bond: Merotex 1.C.1.i Evaluation 1.C.1.ii Expenses 1.C.1.iii Pro Forma of the Issue 1.C.1.iv Cost of Funds 1.C.1.iv.1 Exclusive of Commissions and Expenses 1.C.1.iv.2 Inclusive of Commissions and Expenses 1.C.2 Pricing a New Eurobond with Equity Warrants: VOMF 1.C.2.i Eurobond with Equity Warrants: General Consideratios 1.C.2.ii Voeller Oel und Mineral Forschung 1.C.2.ii.1 Information 1.C.2.ii.2 Evaluation 1.C.2.ii.3 The Pro forma of VOMF's New Issue 1.D Choosing a Particular Type of Bond for a New Issue

9 1.D.1 Eurobonds with Currency Options Attached 1.D.2 Case Study: Bioneth Engineering II. Forward Price of a Coupon Bond III. Bond Futures 3.A Notional Bond Futures 3.A.1 The U.S. Treasury Bond Contract 3.A.2 The 10-year Japanese Government Bond Futures 3.A.3 The Bund Futures 3.A.4 The French Government Bond Futures 3.B Cheapest-to-Deliver Bond (CDB) Futures 3.B.1 Equilibrium Price for a Deliverable Government Bond Futures 3.B.2 The Components of Basis 3.B.3 Identification of the CDB 3.C Index-Based Futures IV. Hedging With Bond Futures 4.A Duration-Based Hedging Strategies 4.A.1 Application: Asset Allocation V. Looking Ahead PART V: Other Interest Rate Instruments in International Markets Chapter XIV: Swaps I. Introduction to Swaps 1.A Economic motives for swaps 1.A.1 Risk Sharing 1.A.2 Arbitrage 1.A.3 Market completion 1.B How is the market organized? II. Interest Rate Swaps 2.A Valuation of an Interest Rate Swap 2.B Market Valuation of an Interest Rate Swap 2.C Euromarkets and interest rate swaps 2.C.1 Case Study: Merotex (continuation) III. Currency Swaps 3.A Types of Currency Swaps 3.A.1 Back-to-Back and Parallel Loans 3.A.2 Long Term Forward Contracts 3.A.3 Straight Currency Swap 3.A.4 Swap of Debt Payments 3.A.5 Case Study: IBM and The World Bank 3.B Valuation of Currency Swaps 3.B.1 Decomposition into Forward Contracts 3.C Eurobonds and currency swaps 3.D Other currency swaps

10 3.E Credit Risk IV. Extensions 4.A Commodity Swaps 4.B Synthetic Instruments and Equity Swaps V. Looking Ahead Chapter XV: Eurocurrency Futures and Options I. Eurocurrency Futures 1.A Some Terminology 1.B The Eurostrip Yield Curve and the CME Swap 1.B.1 Pricing Short-Dated Swaps 1.C Gap Risk Management II. Forward Rate Agreements (FRA) III. Hedging with Eurocurrencies and FRAs IV. Interest Rate, Eurocurrency Futures Options and Other Derivatives 4.A Valuation of futures options 4.B Caps, Floors, and Collars 4.B.1 Valuation of a Cap 4.B.1.i Cap Packaging 4.C LIBOR Options and FRAs PART VI: Miscelaneous Topics Chapter XVI: Gold and Gold Investments I. Introduction 1.A The Gold Market 1.B The Motivation for Investment in Gold II. Gold Price Determinants 2.A The Valuation of Index-Linked Securities 2.A.1 Valuation of Gold Bonds 2.B Gold Mining Equity Chapter XVII: Asset Allocation and Portfolio Management I. Introduction to Asset Allocation 1.A Passive approach 1.B Active approach 1.C Evidence II. Evaluation of the Asset Allocation Process 2.A A Note on Optimal Asset Allocation 2.B Performance Analysis in International Markets 2.B.1 Calculating a rate of return

11 2.B.2 IPA: Breaking Down Performance 2.B.2.i Security Selection 2.B.2.ii Asset Allocation 2.B.2.iii Market Timing III. Risk-Adjustment Performance of Portfolios 3.A Simple ratios 3.A.1 Formation of Optimal Portfolio 3.B Bankers Trust's risk adjustment method 3.C The Jensen measure