The Economic Impact of Tourism

Transcription

1 The Economic Impact of Tourism West Oxfordshire 2009 Prepared by Tourism South East Research Services November Chamberlayne Road Eastleigh Hampshire SO50 5JH Tel: Fax:

2 CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY i-iii 1.0 INTRODUCTION Objectives of study Introduction The Cambridge Model: Background Cambridge Model Version II Methodological overview Reporting TABULATED RESULTS 2.0 ESTIMATED VOLUME OF VISITORS Volume of staying trips by accommodation Volume of staying trips by purpose of visit Volume of staying nights by accommodation Volume of tourism day trips ESTIMATED EXPENDITURE OF VISITORS Staying visitor expenditure by accommodation Staying visitor expenditure by purpose The Value of tourism day trips Total visitor expenditure Distribution of visitor spending ECONOMIC IMPACT OF TOURISM Introduction Business turnover supported by tourism activity Employment supported by tourism expenditure Glossary of terms 12

3 THE ECONOMIC IMPACT OF TOURISM IN WEST OXFORDSHIRE This report contains the findings of a study commissioned by Oxfordshire County Council and District Authorities. Undertaken by Tourism South East the overall aim of the research was to provide indicative estimates for the volume, value and resultant economic impact of tourism in each of the destinations in the county. This summary report provides results for West Oxfordshire District. The research involved the application of the Cambridge Tourism Economic Impact Model or Cambridge Model ; a computer-based model developed by Geoff Broom Associates and the Regional Tourist Boards of England. 1. Summary of results 1.1 Key headline figures for ,000 trips involved an overnight stay 1,383,000 nights were spent in the area by staying visitors 95,239,000 was spent by staying visitors on their trip 3,550,000 trips involved day trips from home 127,315,000 spent by day visitors on their trip In total 222,554,000 was spent by all visitors on their trip In addition, expenditure by friends and relatives on visitors, and visitors spend on second homes (i.e. maintenance) generated a further 9,921,000. With the addition of other expenditure and once adjustments are made, tourism activity generated 209,948,000 direct income for local businesses. With the addition of multiplier impacts, tourism was worth around 249 million This income supported 3,146 FTE jobs and 4,381 Actual jobs ONS job figures reveal a figure of around 4,800 tourism jobs in the District. 1.2 Volume and value of trips 2009 was a positive year for domestic tourism according to the United Kingdom Tourism Survey (UKTS). Overall the volume of trips taken by UK residents to various parts of the UK increased by 7% and trip expenditure increased by 3.6%. The increase in 2009 was due to rise in demand for domestic holiday trips during the year as people took holidays closer to home. Domestic business and VFR trips on the other hand, continued to struggle. The 29.9 million overseas visitors who came in 2009 spent 16.6 billion in the UK. These figures represent a 6% decline in volume and a 2% (nominal) increase in value compared with Full year results from UKTS reveal that just over 18.2 million overnight trips were taken to the South East by domestic visitors, an increase of 12.0% compared to The number of i

4 nights spent in the region also increased, up 11.2% as did visitor spend, up 10.4% to just over 2.5 billion. The increase in domestic overnight trips provided a strong buffer against the loss of income from international visitors. Trips to the South East by foreign travellers dropped by 6.4% in 2009, though spending levels actually increased slightly by 1.1% given the strength of the Euro and Dollar against Sterling. Many of the changes at the regional level are mirrored locally. It is estimated that around 477,000 overnight tourism staying trips were made to West Oxfordshire in Of these trips, domestic visitors made 92% of trips (438,000) and overseas visitors made 8% of trips (39,000). Compared to 2008, domestic overnight trips increased by 5%, whereas the volume of inbound overnight trips remained unchanged. Of all commercial accommodation available to visitors, serviced accommodation (hotels, guest houses and B&Bs) was the most popular choice among visitors (used by 51.4% of domestic staying visitors and 20.5% of overseas staying visitors). Around 15.7% of all staying visitors used non-serviced accommodation (self-catering, camping and caravan accommodation). Significant proportions of both domestic and overseas visitors were accommodated in the homes of friends and family during their trip to West Oxfordshire (29.9% and 51.3% respectively). Overall the number of nights spent in the District by domestic visitors increased by 7.8%, and the number of inbound trip nights dropped by 1.1% compared to For overseas visitors, the night volume reflect a shortening in average trip length. Trip expenditure for overseas visitors increased by 5.5%, despite a small drop in nights spent. This reflects both increases in average spend per head and reflects changes in currency rates (with dollar and euro going a lot further). Domestic overnight trip expenditure increased by 6.6% compared to In total, around 92,239,000 was spent by all staying visitors on their trip to West Oxfordshire in 2009, up 6.4% compared to It is estimated that around 3.55 million day trips were made to West Oxfordshire in 2009, up 6.5% compared to Total day trip expenditure at 78,891,000 was up by 6.6% compared to In total, around 222,554,000 was spent on trips to West Oxfordshire in 2009 by staying and day visitors, up 7.7% compared to Thirty-five percent of this expenditure was made by domestic staying visitors; 7% by overseas staying visitors and 57% by day visitors. Further additional expenditure spent by visitors on second homes and by friends and relatives, who visitors are staying with or visiting, needs also to be accounted for as this represents a significant additional source of income for local businesses. It is estimated that this additional expenditure generated a further 9,921,000 which benefited local businesses in ii

5 1.3 Economic impact Of the 222,554,000 estimated to have been spent by visitors on their trip and the 9.9 million additional trip-related expenditure, around 209,948,000 directly benefited local businesses from hotels and restaurants to cafes, shops and attractions in West Oxfordshire. Adjustments have been made to recognise that some spending on retail and food and drink will fall within attractions or accommodation establishments. Furthermore, it is assumed that 40% of travel spend will take place at the origin of the trip rather than at the destination. In terms of overall income received by businesses from direct visitor expenditure, it is estimated that the greatest proportion was received by catering businesses (38%). Around a fifth of total trip expenditure (19%) was received by retail establishments. Approximately 12% of total trip expenditure was received by attractions and other entertainment. Twelve percent of total trip expenditure was received by accommodation businesses and the remaining 19% of total trip expenditure provided income for the transport sector (e.g. petrol, train/coach/bus fares). In addition to the business turnover generated in those businesses directly receiving visitor income, successive rounds of expenditure, that is spending by these businesses on local supplies and spending by employers in the local area, is estimated to have generated a further 39,038,000 to the local economy. Drawing together direct business turnover, supplier and income induced expenditure, and the additional expenditure spent on second homes and by friends and relatives, the total value of tourism activity in West Oxfordshire in 2009 is estimated to have been around 248,986,000 in 2009, up 7.2% when compared to This business income is estimated to have supported around 3,146 Full-Time Equivalent Jobs and 4,381 Actual Jobs (with the addition of seasonal and part-time employment). The Office of National Statistics employment figures drawn from the Annual Business Inquiry shows that an estimated 4,800 jobs in West Oxfordshire are in tourism and tourism-related businesses, higher than the figure estimated by the Cambridge Model. According to the ABI data, tourism-related jobs represent 12.4% of all employee jobs in the District. iii

6 1. INTRODUCTION 1.1 Objectives of Study This report examines the value, volume and resultant economic impact of tourism on West Oxfordshire. The study was undertaken by Tourism South East on behalf of West Oxfordshire District Council using a widely recognised, industry specific methodology, known as the Cambridge Model. To date, this approach has been widely applied across England and the South East region to produce an indicative outline of the scale of tourism activity on a local area basis. 1.2 Background Tourism is not an industry in the conventional sense of the word i.e. the tourism product is not created out of a conventional production process and the methods used to measure tourism are not conventional ones. Essentially, the tourism industry serves our needs while we are away from our usual environment by providing products and services, and represents an important part of many local economies. Measuring the impact of visitor volumes at a local level has been an important issue for destination and countryside managers for years. Yet, the scale, diversity and nature of tourism makes quantification a challenge for example: A plethora of businesses across many different sectors comprise the tourism product e.g. accommodation businesses, visitor attractions, transport providers, retailers, restaurants, pubs, tea rooms etc. There are many different types of tourist day visitors, staying visitors, visitors on holiday, visitors on business, plus visitors visiting friends and relatives, on language study etc. All these different markets behaviour in a different way with respect to trip frequency, spend per head, duration of stay etc. The nature of tourism itself creates problems as it is impossible to accurately monitor and record every visitor entering or leaving a geographical area. It must, therefore, be stressed that calculating the value, volume and impact of tourism can never be a precise science. Theoretically, the best approach is implementing cordon surveys but these are seldom affordable in practice and still engender a number of technical problems. Thus, the method chosen is always governed by issues of affordability, practically, data availability or attainability, data quality/ representativeness and comparability (both in a spatial and temporal sense). It is for this reason, that the Cambridge Model a computer based, industry specific model developed to calculate estimates of volume, value and economic impact of tourism on a county of City basis has been used extensively. 1

7 1.3 The Cambridge Model: Background For almost ten years, regional tourist boards across England have been working with Geoff Broom Associates in developing the Cambridge Model approach to estimate the value and volume of tourism to local authority areas. The model was developed to provide an affordable method of calculating the value of tourism to local economies through using a range of readily available local data on an area s tourism product to disaggregate a range of regional/ county tourism statistics. The method is popular with local authorities as it is affordable and can readily use available local statistics to generate a view of the volume, value and economic impact of visitor activity in the area. Nevertheless, where additional local data exists e.g. high quality occupancy data, information on profile of visitor structure and associated spend etc this enables the replacement of regional data in the first stages of the model. Business surveys can also be commissioned to generate local calibration of the economic stage of the model. Indeed, although the Cambridge Model approach has been frequently labelled as being top-down, it is entirely possible to drive the model entirely by locally collected data, and thus introduce bottom-up elements. Furthermore, the model utilises a standard methodology capable of application across the UK, and thus offers the potential for direct comparisons with similar destinations throughout the country. 1.4 Cambridge Model Version II Since the inception of the original Cambridge Model approach, a number of changes have occurred to the model s methodology and the context of operation. Most importantly, autumn 2003 saw the launch of Cambridge Model Version II. This revised approach was developed from work undertaken for the South West Regional Development Agency and includes a number of enhancements. These include: greater use of local data within the standardised model e.g. occupancy data, information on local wage rates enhanced outputs, notably visitor nights by accommodation type, spend by accommodation type, impact of non-trip related spend more sophisticated economic impact analysis section adoption of a rolling average methodology for staying visitor value and volume Methodological Overview Key Outputs The model has two stages: Stage 1: Calculates the volume and value of day and staying visitors to the study area. Stage 2: Estimates the economic impact of this visitor spending in the local economy. The Cambridge Model is therefore able to generate indicative estimates for the following: The volume of staying trips taken by overseas and domestic visitors The volume of visitor nights spent by overseas and domestic visitors 1 This approach offers the additional benefits of producing estimates using more county specific information and is based on three years worth of data for staying visitors whilst providing additional outputs notably expenditure and visitor nights by accommodation type. 2

8 The number of leisure day visits taken from home Visitor expenditure associated with these trips, and its distribution across key sectors of the local tourism economy The value of additional business turnover generated by tourism activity The level of direct, indirect and induced employment sustained by visitor expenditure. For staying trips the model also offers a breakdown according to the type of accommodation used and the main purpose of visit, i.e. holiday, visiting friends and relatives, business, language school visit and other 2 purposes Data Sources In its standard form, the Cambridge Model uses a range of local data including details of accommodation stock, local occupancy rates, population, employment, local wage rates and visits to attractions. It applies this locally sourced information to regional estimates of tourism volume and expenditure derived from the following national surveys: United Kingdom Tourism Survey (UKTS) International Passenger Survey (IPS) England Day Leisure Survey (EDLS) New Earnings Survey Census of Employment Census of Population 2001 (estimates of resident population as rebased on 2001 Census data) Labour Force Survey As highlighted above, the Model allows estimates generated using the above existing data sources to be refined further using locally available survey data to the extent that it is possible to drive the Model entirely by locally collected data. Locally collected data used in this study include: Audit of accommodation stock Average room and bed occupancy from local survey Number of visits to attractions from local survey Retail footfall from large retail outlets Limitations of Model The Model relies on a range of data sources, which in turn are based on different methodologies and are estimated to different levels of accuracy. The estimates generated by the Model can therefore only be regarded as indicative of the scale and importance of visitor activity in the local area. The Model cannot, for example, take account of any additions to, or leakage of, expenditure arising from visitors taking day trips into or out of the area in which they are staying. It is likely, however, that these broadly balance each other in many areas. 2 Other visitors typically include visitors coming to an area for reasons such as education and training, social or sporting events, or even business matters relating to personal or family duties. 3

9 1.5.4 Accuracy of the model As with all models, the outputs need to be viewed in the context of local information and knowledge. Because of the nature of tourism and the modelling process, this model (as with other approaches) can only produce indicative estimates and not absolute values. The Cambridge Model approach has been independently validated (R Vaughan, Bournemouth University) and was judged robust and the margins of error acceptable and in line with other modelling techniques. Tourism South East, also implement a number of measures to ensure that outputs are indicative as possible, through working with the local authority to audit accommodation to ensure that data inputs on accommodation capacity are as accurate as possible, and ensuring a high degree of transparency in the process (methodology employed, data used, assumptions made) As a result, there should be confidence that the estimates produced are as reliable as is practically possible within the constraints of the information available. 4

10 2.0 ESTIMATED VOLUME OF VISITORS TO WEST OXFORDSHIRE 2.1 Volume of staying trips by accommodation Table 1:Trips by accommodation UK Overseas Total Serviced 225, % 8, % 233, % Self catering 23, % 2, % 25, % Touring caravans /tents 40, % 1, % 41, % Static vans/holiday centres 7, % 1, % 8, % Group/campus 7, % 3, % 10, % Paying guest 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% Second homes 1, % 1, % 2, % Boat moorings 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% Other/Mixed 3 4, % 2, % 6, % SFR 4 131, % 20, % 151, % Total ,000 39, ,000 Total ,000 39, ,000 % change 5.0% 0.0% 4.6% NB: Please note that trips which are fewer than 500 are not presented, figures above 500 are rounded to nearest Volume of staying trips by purpose of visit Table 2: Trips by purpose UK Overseas Total Holiday/leisure 342,000 78% 8,970 23% 350,970 74% Business 18,000 4% 2,340 6% 20,340 4% VFR 70,000 16% 23,790 61% 93,790 20% Other/Mixed 5 8,000 2% 3,900 10% 11,900 2% Study 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% Total ,000 39, ,000 Total ,000 39, ,000 % change 5.0% 0.0% 4.6% 3 Note: Other types of accommodation includes nights spent in transit, in temporary accommodation, or where more than one type of accommodation is used. 4 Staying in home of friend or relatives 5 The national tourism surveys identify a long list of other purposes, including looking for work, looking for a place to live, attending a job interview, to get married, to attend graduation and so on. 5

11 2.3 Volume of staying nights by accommodation Table 3: Nights by accommodation UK Overseas Total Serviced 425, % 26, % 451, % Self catering 127, % 20, % 147, % Touring caravans /tents 135, % 4, % 139, % Static vans/holiday centres 20, % % 20, % Group/campus 60, % 20, % 80, % Paying guest 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% Second homes 7, % 7, % 14, % Boat moorings 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% Other 12, % 11, % 23, % SFR 317, % 191, % 508, % Total ,103, ,000 1,383,000 Total ,023, ,000 1,306,000 % change 7.8% -1.1% 5.9% TABLE 4: STAYING VISITOR NIGHTS BY PURPOSE OF VISIT UK Overseas Total Holiday/leisure 849,000 77% 95,200 34% 944,200 68% Business 34,000 3% 5,600 2% 39,600 3% VFR 151,000 14% 128,800 46% 279,800 20% Other 70, % 50,400 18% 120,400 9% Study 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% Total ,103, ,000 1,383,000 Total ,023, ,000 1,306,000 % change 7.8% -1.1% 5.9% 2.4 Volume of tourism day trips TABLE 5: NUMBER OF TOURISM DAY VISITS Trips Total ,550,000 Total ,334,000 % change 6.5% 6

12 3. ESTIMATED EXPENDITURE OF VISITORS 3.1 Staying visitor expenditure by accommodation Table 6: Spend by accommodation UK Overseas Total Serviced 50,817, % 3,340, % 54,157, % Self catering 10,084, % 1,629, % 11,713, % Touring caravans /tents 5,116, % 193, % 5,309, % Static vans/holiday centres 666, % 21, % 687, % Group/campus 1,988, % 1,015, % 3,003, % Paying guest 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% Second homes 357, % 475, % 832, % Boat moorings 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% Other 514, % 469, % 983, % SFR 9,351, % 9,206, % 18,557, % Total ,891,000 16,348,000 95,239,000 Total ,032,000 15,492,000 89,524,000 % change 6.6% 5.5% 6.4% 3.2 Staying trip expenditure by purpose of visit TABLE 7: STAYING VISITOR EXPENDITURE BY PURPOSE OF VISIT UK Overseas Total Holiday 64,507,000 82% 6,539,200 40% 71,046,200 75% Business 3,973,000 5% 817,400 5% 4,790,400 5% VFR 8,680,000 11% 6,048,760 37% 14,728,760 15% Other 1,732,000 2% 2,942,640 18% 4,674,640 5% Study 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% Total ,891,000 16,348,000 95,239,000 Total ,032,000 15,492,000 89,524,000 % change 6.6% 5.5% 6.4% 7

13 3.3 The Value of Day Trips to West Oxfordshire TABLE 8: VALUE OF DAY VISITS Spend Total ,315,000 Total ,210,000 % change 8.6% 3.4 Total Trips & Expenditure TABLE 9: TOTAL TRIPS AND TOTAL EXPENDITURE No. of trips Spend Domestic staying trips 438,000 11% 78,891,000 35% Overseas staying trips 39,000 1% 16,348,000 7% Day trips 3,550,000 88% 127,315,000 57% Total ,027, ,554,000 Total ,790, ,735,000 % change 6.3% 7.7% TABLE 10: OTHER EXPENDITURE ASSOCIATED WITH TOURISM ACTIVITY Spending on second homes 351,000 Spending by friends/relatives 9,633,000 Total 9,921, Distribution of Visitor Spending Table 11: Expenditure by sector Accommodation Shopping Food and drink Attractions/ Travel 6 Total entertainment UK Tourists 23,667,000 14,989,100 20,511,400 11,833,500 7,889,000 78,890,000 Overseas tourists Total overnight 30% 19% 26% 15% 10% 100% 4,087,250 4,741,210 3,760,270 2,125,370 1,634,900 16,349,000 25% 29% 23% 13% 10% 100% 27,754,250 19,730,310 24,271,670 13,958,870 9,523,900 95,239,000 29% 21% 25% 15% 10% Tourist day visitors 0 21,643,550 61,111,200 12,731,500 31,828, ,315,000 % 0% 17% 48% 10% 25% 100% Total % 27,754,250 41,373,860 85,382,870 26,690,370 41,352, ,554,000 12% 19% 38% 12% 19% 6 Travel costs include all costs related to the trip including the train/coach/bus fares/tickets, petrol, and taxis. Around 40% of travel expenditure takes place outside the District. This amount is deducted in the turnover figures. 7 The model assumes a high level of day trips to countryside locations in West Oxfordshire. It is assumed that around 30% of all countryside day trips involve a journey by car. The 25% expenditure on travel mainly refers to the cost of petrol. 8

14 4.0 ECONOMIC IMPACT OF TOURISM IN WEST OXFORDSHIRE 4.1 Business turnover Table 12: Direct turnover for businesses in direct receipt of visitor spend on trip Accommodation Direct turnover 29,191,000 15% Retail 41,371,000 21% Catering 81,272,410 41% Attraction/entertainment 23,381,000 12% Transport 24,811,590 12% Total 200,027,000 Other trip related expenditure 9,921,000 Total DIRECT ,948,000 Total DIRECT ,717,000 % change 7.3% TABLE 13: TOTAL LOCAL BUSINESS TURNOVER SUPPORTED BY TOURISM ACTIVITY Total turnover Direct 209,948,000 Supplier & income induced 39,038,000 TOTAL TOURISM IMPACT ,986,000 TOTAL TOURISM IMPACT ,169,000 % change 7.2% 4.2 Employment supported by tourism expenditure Jobs Supported by Business Sector TABLE 14: TOTAL FTE EMPLOYMENT RELATED TO TOURISM SPENDING FTE jobs Actual jobs Total ,940 4,088 Total ,911 3,873 % change 1.0% 5.6% ABI estimated jobs Table 15: ABI estimated tourism related jobs West West Oxfordshire Oxfordshire (employee jobs) (%) South East (%) Great Britain (%) Tourismrelated 4, % 8% 8.2% Notes: Tourism consists of industries that are also part of the services industry see definition below % is a proportion of total employee jobs. Employee jobs exclude self-employed, government-supported trainees and HM Force. Tourism-related includes the following sectors: SIC 551 Hotels, SIC 552 Camping sites etc., SIC 553 Restaurants, SIC 554 Bars, SIC 633 Activities of travel agencies etc, SIC 925 Library, archives, museums etc., SIC 926 Sporting activities, SIC 927 Other recreational activities. 9

15 GLOSSARY OF TERMS Staying trips Staying trips comprise a visit which involves a stay away from home of at least one night. The study measures trips, rather than visitors as one visitor may make multiple trips to an area in a given period. ' Tourism day trips Day trips are defined as a visit to and from home for leisure purposes, undertaken on an irregular basis and lasting a minimum of three hours. The report excludes trips undertaken for business or study purposes, as these are not covered by the Leisure Day Visits Survey methodology. The definition of day trips adopted by this study is that used by the Department of Culture, Media and Sport. VFR Trips VFR trips are defined as a visit where the main purpose is visiting friends and relatives. Whilst many trips to visit friends and relatives will be accommodated in the homes of these friends/ relatives, some will make use of other forms of accommodation. It should be also noted that other forms of trip, for instance for holiday or business purposes may stay with friends and relatives rather than in commercial accommodation. Other-trip Expenditure Apart from the spending associated with the individual trips, additional spending by non-visitors, e.g. friends and relatives with whom the visitor is visiting and/or staying with will also take place. Moreover, owners of second homes/boats will spend some money on maintenance, repair. Economic multiplier Multipliers are used to estimate the economic impact of visitor expenditure. Visitor expenditure produces three effects. Direct effects are changes in the business sector directly receiving visitor expenditure. For instance, visitors staying in a hotel will directly increase revenue and the number of jobs in the hotel sector. Indirect effects are the changes in supplier businesses. For example, these indirect effects would be hotels purchasing more linen from local suppliers as a result of increased business. Induced effects are changes in local economic activity resulting from household spending. For instance, employees of the hotel and linen supplier spend their wages in the local area, resulting in more sales, income and jobs in the area. Full Time Equivalent Jobs (FTE) For the purposes of the Model, a FTE is defined by the average annual salary plus employment costs in the sector concerned. Direct jobs Jobs directly generated in those local businesses in which visitors spend money, i.e. hotels, catering establishments. Indirect jobs Jobs created locally due to the purchases of goods and services by businesses benefiting from visitor expenditure, i.e. jobs with local suppliers. Induced jobs Jobs created throughout the local economy because employees employed due to visitor expenditure spend their wages locally on goods and services such as food, clothing and housing. Actual Jobs Many jobs are seasonal or part-time in their nature in the tourism sector, so an adjustment is made to calculate the actual number of jobs from the number of FTEs. The adjustment made is based on the findings of surveys of tourism related businesses, and national employment surveys. Annual Business Inquiry (ABI) This is the main government survey of companies in the UK. It is conducted in two parts: one dealing with employment, the other with financial information. 10

16 United Kingdom Tourism Survey (UKTS) The United Kingdom Tourism Survey is undertaken by BRMB for VisitBritain and is based on 1,000 telephone interviews per week (50,000 annually). It provides basic headline data on the volume and value of domestic tourism at a national, regional and county level. International Passenger Survey (IPS) The International Passenger Survey is conducted by Office for National Statistics and is based on face-to-face interviews with a sample of passengers travelling via the principal airports, sea routes and the Channel Tunnel, together with visitors crossing the land border into Northern Ireland. Around 210,000 interviews are undertaken each year. IPS provides headline figures, based on the county or unitary authority, for the volume and value of overseas trips to the UK. England Day Leisure Survey (EDLS) The leisure day visits survey was last conducted in 2005 and covered approximately 5,000 respondent interviews. Unlike the IPS and UKTS, this survey is not undertaken on an ongoing basis and thus adjustments are made in the model to account for annual increments in the value and volume based on trends observed in United Kingdom Occupancy Survey (UKOS) As part of the EU Directive on Tourism Statistics adopted in 1995, the UK must report regularly on a specified range of statistics to Eurostat, the official statistical office of the European Union. Included in these statistics are monthly occupancy rates for UK serviced accommodation. The responsibility for providing this data lies with the four National Tourist Boards, and across England the survey is undertaken by the Regional Tourist Boards. A sample of establishments is recruited to the survey and asked to complete a data form each month, giving details of their nightly occupancy. The data form is processed and analysed to produce monthly occupancy rates for the whole of the area and for specific categories of type, size, location etc. Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings The ASHE provides information on wage levels by industry sector and occupation. The main strength of the AHSE is its large sample size. It is based on a 1% sample of employees who are members of PAYE. The coverage of full-time adult employees is virtually complete, and consequently the survey is representative of hours worked for full-time employees on adult rates of pay (although the survey is currently not weighted). The coverage of part-time employees is not comprehensive, as some part-time workers will have earnings below the income tax threshold. The ASHE is the best source for estimating full time earnings. Labour Force Survey (LFS) The LFS is a household panel survey, continuous since 1992, with results produced each quarter. It has a sample of approximately 60,000 households. The LFS is the government s largest continuous household survey and participation in the survey is voluntary. LFS data is weighted to enable the population estimates to be produced. The weighting also attempts to compensate for differential nonresponse among different subgroups in the population. LFS is designed to provide information on the UK labour market that can be used to develop, manage and evaluate labour market. 11