Brexit the pros and cons

Transcription

1 Brexit the pros and cons This document is for Professional Clients only in Dubai, Jersey, Guernsey, Isle of Man and the UK and is not for consumer use. Brexit the pros and cons With the Cameron government committed to an in-out referendum on the UK s membership of the European Union (EU) before the end of 2017, the consequences of a vote to leave the EU (British Exit, or Brexit) need to be considered. Below we look at the arguments for and against Brexit, and any alternative arrangements for trade with the EU. John Greenwood Chief Economist, Invesco Ltd. Pro Brexit arguments The main argument of the pro Brexit camp is that the EU costs too much, has grown too large, encroached too far into domestic policies (eroding national sovereignty), and stifles business through over-regulation. Brexit proponents believe that after a yes vote for Brexit, the UK can negotiate a new free trade arrangement, along the lines of the status enjoyed by Switzerland and Norway. Pro EU arguments On the other side, the anti-brexit side has emphasized the benefits that the EU has brought to UK business, crucially enabling the City of London to provide financial and business services unfettered across Europe, and thus enabling the City to become the main financial centre in Europe. The consensus among business leaders appears to be that it is in the best interest of the UK s economy to remain within the EU. For example, in 2013 the Confederation of British Industry found 8 out of 10 of its members thought this was the case. In the manufacturing sector, 85% of business leaders considered it was best to remain within the EU, and similarly in the financial sector 84% believed it best to stay in the EU. 1 Date of referendum David Cameron won the UK general election in May 2015 with a pledge to hold an in-out referendum on Europe by the end of Since winning he has stepped up efforts to secure a deal on treaty change and/or concessions to support his preference for staying in the EU. Therefore the referendum may be as early as May 2016, if he can secure sufficient concessions. The one date that parliament has ruled out however is the day of the assembly elections in Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland, the exact date of which has yet to be decided, in May 2016.

2 More detail on pro Brexit arguments The pro Brexit camp complains about the costs of EU membership. By some estimates the total economic cost (both direct and indirect) is as much as 11% of annual GDP (or close to 200 billion). 2 These costs can be divided between direct costs, such as the UK government s contribution to the EU budget, and the indirect costs arising from the implementation of rigid EU regulations and the inefficiencies and distortions of the agricultural markets and employment markets that membership brings. Nature of costs % of GDP Rationale Direct fiscal costs 1.25% Gross payments to EU institutions. Costs of regulation 5.2% Cost of employment, financial, dangerous substances and procedure regulations. Costs of resource 3.25% Relating to CAP and EU Protectionism. misallocation Costs of lost jobs 0.375% Job losses of UK-born population, due to immigration from EU states. Costs of waste, fraud 0.375% Fish discard due to fish quotas, bureaucratic and corruption inefficiencies, and corrupt officials. Unforeseen commitments 0.25% Health and benefit tourism. Total 11% Source: Tim Congdon, How Much Does the European Union Cost Britain? Sept Direct costs: In 2013 the British government s net contribution to the EU budget was estimated to be bn, according to HM Treasury. 3 This figure is net of the UK s rebate and UK public sector receipts. The UK s contribution amounted to 12% of the overall EU budget. Proponents of Brexit estimate the direct cost of EU membership to the average British household in 2014 was 759 p.a., assuming there are 27 million households and based on the 2011 UK census figures. The direct fiscal cost was an estimated 20.5bn in Indirect costs: Besides the direct costs of EU membership, politicians and pressure groups supporting British exit from the EU emphasise the financial cost of red tape and regulation imposed by Brussels. The London-based think tank Open Europe, estimated that the cost of all regulation, including domestic regulation, to UK subjects was 32.8bn (in 2009), with 59% or 19.3bn of that figure being EU-imposed. The three areas of EU legislation that are highlighted as extremely costly and invasive are renewables, employment, and financial regulation. Financial regulation: A particularly sensitive area of regulation, for Britain, is financial regulation. Opponents of EU regulation in this area cite the red tape, ill-informed tax initiatives, protectionist policies, and high costs of the EU s regulation of financial markets. There is a general perception - rightly or wrongly - among many commentators, that Germany and France are anti-finance and envious of the London s position as Europe s de facto financial capital. Therefore there is a perception that financial regulations enforced from Brussels are either indifferent to their impact on the UK s most crucial industry or else wilfully targeted at damaging the UK s dominance of the financial industry in Europe. The EU has proposed taxes of 0.1% on financial transactions and 0.01% on derivatives in the aftermath of the financial crisis although the implementation has been postponed until January In a highly competitive, low margin industry these transaction taxes are widely viewed as an onerous imposition on the trading activities of the City. The EU has also sought to regulate the compensation structure in finance, by imposing caps on bonuses. Such regulation and perceived interference has led to calls for the UK to leave the EU, so that the UK financial authorities and Westminster can formulate a regulatory framework that is more accommodating to the needs of the City and ensure its continued financial dominance. If Brexit could be combined with a free trade agreement (to include financial services) between the UK and the EU this would enable Britain to continue to enjoy access to Europe s markets.

3 Non-financial regulation: In the non-financial sector of the economy there are other regulatory hindrances to business. EU regulations designed to prohibit dangerous substances and processes are considered to be extremely costly for business as they have put some suppliers out of business, or at least forced them to introduce costly changes to their business operations or products. These regulations have also raised the prices for consumer goods. In total, EU regulations are estimated to cost 5%-6% of UK GDP per year. 2 The Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) has long been a bugbear for people opposed to British membership of the EU, seen by many as hugely wasteful and costly, and leading to an uncompetitive domestic agricultural sector dependent on subsidies to survive. Supporters of the free market are also critical of the EU s protectionist trade policies, such as anti-dumping policies. These are imposed when the EU believes prices of imported goods are suspiciously cheap, compared to their EU-made equivalents. The EU in these cases is suspicious of unfair subsidies, so in response they impose antidumping measures. The total cost of these trade distorting polices, including the CAP and trade protectionism, is estimated to be 3% of GDP. 2 Immigration and benefit tourism: One of the most emotive issues for Britain is that of immigration. Due to the EU s founding principle of the free movement of people (along with the free movement of goods, services and capital), the UK has no control over immigration from other EU member states. Since the membership accession in 2004 of eight Baltic and Eastern European states (Czech, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia and Slovenia - the EUA8), there has been a noticeable wave of migrants from these countries. With income levels in Poland, for instance, one fifth of those in the UK, this was hardly a surprising development. By 2011 EUA8- born residents accounted for nearly 1.7% 2 of total employment in the country. There has been evidence that these migrants, who primarily secure employment in the lowskilled sectors, have suppressed wage growth in the low-skilled sectors, and increased unemployment levels among the UK-born population. During the global financial crisis and the years immediately following, employment amongst the UK-born population fell sharply, whereas amongst the EUA8-born population in the UK, employment grew. 2 David Cameron is making Benefit Tourism one of the key issues he wants addressed in his negotiations with the EU. Figures from January 2012 show that of a total of 5.5 million welfare recipients, 371, 000 were foreign born, and 118,000 were from the European Economic Area. 2 There is also concern that citizens of other EU states with poorer health services will travel to the UK to take advantage of the free services available through the NHS. More detail on benefits of continued EU membership The benefits for Britain of staying in the EU are primarily - one could argue - economic; the EU is a large market, accounting for 25% of world GDP. The EU is the biggest trading partner of the UK; 45% of UK exports are to the EU and 50% of imports are from the EU. The attractiveness of the UK as a destination for foreign direct investment (FDI) is enhanced by the country s membership of the EU, and access to its markets. In 2012 the UK was a recipient of FDI to the tune of 937bn. Investment abroad by UK firms was 1,088bn. Nearly 50% of UK FDI, both inward and outward is EU related. 1 The UK, being a service-based economy, enjoys huge potential gains from membership of the Common Market. Services account for 75% of world GDP, but only 20% of world trade. The EU has taken major steps to liberalise the trade in financial services in particular, launching the Financial Services Action Plan in Beneficial results have been spread across a range of financial services. For example, there has been a reduction in cross-border payment costs for a typical 100 payment from 24 in 2001 to 2.50 in In addition, there was a 50% increase in the number of passported prospectuses between the second half of 2005 and the first half of 2008 (i.e. share offers - including unit trusts - that could be distributed across the EU), and there also has been strong growth in the use of cross-border funds since These developments show that fund managers and associated investment professionals have been able to take advantage of the EU to expand their business. Under the Financial Services Market Act 2000 (FSMA), firms authorised in any European Economic Area (EEA) member state are entitled to carry on permitted activities in any other EEA member state by either exercising the right of establishment (of a branch and/or agents) or providing cross-border services. When one looks at the Brexit question, the importance of the financial services sector to the UK s economy and the impact that an exit would have on it, is central. Financial services and related professional services accounted for 11.8% of UK GDP in 2013 and employed over 2.1million people. Financial services accounted for 11.5% of total tax receipts for 2013/14. In terms of trade, the financial sector generated a trade surplus of 67bn in 2013, more than all other net exporting industries. FDI in the industry was 100bn. A major reason why the City has been able to grow and maintain its prominence, and become the main financial centre in Europe, has been its ability to operate and sell its services throughout the EU.

4 London is home to more than 250 foreign banks. Many of these use the City as a base for their main European subsidiaries to take advantage of the automatic Passporting rights to sell their products and operate across the other 27 countries in the single market. The proponents of Brexit argue if Britain joined the EEA and the EFTA (European Free Trade Area) the country would still be able to enjoy the same access to the European markets, but this is not a certainty. Counter-arguments on immigration: Regarding the principle of the free movement of people, proponents of continued membership point out those immigrants to the UK from the EU are better educated than UK nationals with 32% having a degree compared to 21% of UK subjects. They are also less likely to be in the lower education category. 1 They also tend to be younger than the native population: 32.3 years in 2011 compared to an average of 40.8 years amongst natives, which is a benefit when many countries are struggling with rapidly ageing population. Immigrants from the EEA arriving since 2000 have contributed 34% more in fiscal terms than they have received, which equates to a net contribution 22.1bn in 2011 terms. This compares to the native population only contributing 92.6% of the amounts they received in transfers and benefits. 1 Alternatives to full EU membership What would the alternatives be if Britain voted in the referendum to leave the EU? The EU has entered into three main types of agreements with non-eu countries: 1. allowing membership of the Single Market (EEA), 2. membership of the EU s Customs Union, and 3. Free Trade Agreement (FTA). While it would naturally be in their interest to establish a preferential trade arrangement with the UK, it would also not be surprising if the EU member countries sought to penalise the UK for leaving the union. The motivation might be to ensure that other member states see there is a cost to exiting the union. Such a punishment could take the form of restricting access of certain sectors; the financial sector would be the obvious candidate. The agreement between the EU and Switzerland excludes financial services, and it is thought to have limited the size of Swiss financial sector growth. Any negotiations over an agreement between the UK and EU post-brexit would be bound to cause risk and uncertainty and could drag on for years. Membership of the single market (EEA) would simply mean the UK would still abide by the same the same Brussels-imposed regulation domestically that currently applies and still have access to the common market. However Britain would not be able to influence negotiations on the formulation of regulations as it would have lost its seat at the table. It would be likely that the UK would still be expected to make a contribution to the EU budget, albeit at a reduced rate. This is similar to the relationship that Norway, Liechtenstein and Iceland have with the EU. Customs Union - this is the relationship that exists between the EU and Turkey. The UK would remain outside the Common Market, but would retain some of the trade benefits of membership, in particular for the trade in goods. The UK would lose the benefits of freedom of movement and the freedom of establishment. 5 The service sector would be likely be severely hampered by this outcome, with its business activities in the EU curtailed. This would clearly make the UK a less attractive location for FDI investment. A Free Trade Agreement is another possibility. The EU has a large number of FTAs with various countries. These are similar to Customs Unions, but are generally agreed on a product by product basis, and would not interfere with the UK s existing FTAs with other non-eu countries. However there is serious risk that the EU would not include goods and services that the UK wanted. The EU has not been happy with the FTA between the EU and Switzerland, in particular with the issue of dispute resolution. Therefore it may be hard to achieve a similar deal. The most drastic alternative would be not to agree a bi-lateral agreement with the EU and instead to rely on Most Favoured Nation status under World Trade Organization rules.

5 The Scottish question If Britain does decide to leave the EU, what are the consequences for the Union of England and Scotland? Following the UK general election in May 2015, the Scottish National Party (SNP) now holds 56 out of Scotland s 59 seats in Westminster. The SNP also seems likely to maintain their control of Holyrood in next year s assembly elections in Scotland. The SNP are emphatically pro-europe, and if Britain voted to leave the EU, there would doubtless be calls for another referendum on Scottish independence. Given the relatively small margin of last year s referendum result (55.3% vs. 44.7%), the likelihood of a vote to leave the UK following a Brexit would be increased dramatically. David Cameron s objectives The Cameron government is seeking changes to several areas of EU regulations and entitlements for EU citizens. Firstly, they want a four-year waiting period before EU migrants are allowed to claim in-work benefits, and to remove jobseekers benefits after a 6-month period if they have not secured work. According to the Telegraph 6 the latter is legally achievable, with Germany and Spain also seeking similarly to tighten up immigrant benefits entitlements. However the changes to in-work benefits will be harder to achieve, due to the argument that this may be in breach of the principle of freedom of movement, a major tenet of the common market. Secondly, David Cameron s government would also like to introduce an income test for the non-european spouses of EU migrants. This will also be troublesome as it would require treaty change, and it would directly contravene the freedom of movement principle. European leaders are against such a treaty change, as it could require ratification across the union, including destabilizing referenda in their own countries around the time many of the leaders are running for re-election in their home countries. 6 The government s objective would appear to be to secure enough changes in EU laws, regulations or practices that would enable the prime minister to go to the country with the proposal that the changes he had negotiated would change the character of the EU sufficiently to justify continued British participation. Among other things, this would include abandonment of the objective of ever closer union at least for those nations like Britain that are not members of the single currency arrangements. By contrast, the members of the European currency union do need to achieve ever closer union if the monetary union is to avoid the kind of crises that have bedevilled it over the past five years. Therefore, achieving agreement on one formula for nonmembers of the currency union (such as Britain, Sweden and Denmark) that is also compatible with a different formula for members of the monetary union will certainly be immensely challenging. Although Cameron may only secure part of that objective, there can be little doubt that Britain would do best by maintaining free trade with and full access to the EU, while remaining outside the Eurozone. 1 The City UK, Analysing The Case for EU Membership, How Does The Evidence Stack Up? April Tim Congdon, How Much Does the European Union Cost Britain? September HM Treasury, European Union Finances 2013, statement on the 2013 EU Budget and Measures to Counter Fraud and Financial Mismanagement, November The European Commission, Financial Services : Implementing the framework for financial markets: Action Plan, May The freedom of establishment, set out in Article 49 (ex Article 43 TEC) of the Treaty and the freedom to provide cross border services, set out in Article 56 (ex Article 49 TEC), are two of the fundamental freedoms which are central to the effective functioning of the EU Internal Market. Source : The European Commission 6 The Telegraph, When is the EU Referendum? June 28th 2015.

6 Important information This document is for Professional Clients only in Dubai, Jersey, Guernsey, Isle of Man and the UK and is not for consumer use The value of investments and any income from them will fluctuate (this may partly be the result of exchange rate fluctuations) and investors may not get back the full amount invested. While great care has been taken to ensure that the information contained herein is accurate, no responsibility can be accepted for any errors, mistakes omissions or for any action taken in reliance thereon. Where John Greenwood has expressed opinions, they are based on current market conditions and are subject to change without notice. These opinions may differ from those of other Invesco professionals. All data provided by Invesco unless otherwise stated. Data as at 24 July 2015, unless otherwise stated. Issued in Dubai by Invesco Asset Management Limited PO Box , DIFC Precinct Building No 4, Level 3, Office 305, Dubai, United Arab Emirates Regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority Issued in Jersey and Guernsey by Invesco International Limited 2nd Floor, Orviss House, 17a Queen Street, St Helier, Jersey, JE2 4WD Regulated by the Jersey Financial Services Commission Issued in the Isle of Man by Invesco Global Asset Management Limited George s Quay House, 43 Townsend Street, Dublin 2, Ireland Regulated in Ireland by the Central Bank of Ireland Issued in the UK by Invesco Asset Management Limited Perpetual Park, Perpetual Park Drive, Henley-on-Thames, Oxfordshire RG9 1HH, UK Authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority 59332/PDF/ UK3659