BACKGROUND GUIDE SITUATION IN SUDAN (DARFUR CONFLICT)

Transcription

1 III INTERNATIONAL YOUTH CONFERENCE TYUMEN MODEL UN-2011 Student session BACKGROUND GUIDE SITUATION IN SUDAN (DARFUR CONFLICT) ANDREY DEVYATKOV ASSISTANT AT THE CHAIR OF MODERN HISTORY AND INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS TYUMEN STATE UNIVERSITY SECURITY COUNCIL 2011

2 OUTLINE Introduction...3 Factors of the Darfur conflict...3 Conflict dynamic and actors...5 Involvement of the UN...5 Interests of external actors...6 Today s situation in security sphere...7 Recommendations for the Security Council meeting...8 Map of Sudan...9 Links for further research

3 Introduction Darfur is a region in Western Sudan. Square km², population 6 mln. people. Darfur means land of Fur (Fur is one of the main tribes in Darfur). The international community faces in Darfur one of the greatest challenges in terms of security: the official UN bodies inform that the conflict has already brought hundreds of thousands killed and millions of internally displaced persons (IDPs). Factors of the Darfur conflict The overwhelming majority of experts analyzing the conflict in Darfur state that the intensity of it could be explained as a result of a group of intertwining factors: 1. The scarcity of such resources as land and water. This problem became more acute because of demographic explosion and desertification which has been taken place actively since the 80s. The tribes used earlier to solve the conflicts around the resources peacefully at the so called conferences but the desertification led to massive migrations of people inclusively from neighboring countries searching for first of all grazing lands The ethnic diversity of the region. The population of Darfur is predominantly Islamic (so there is no decisive religious difference with Northern Sudan) but ethnically there is a division between Arab and non-arab (Negroid, African) tribes. This division should have been activated and it happened when the Arab-dominated Sudanese government together with local activists began to polarize the population in Darfur in order to prevent the eventual secessionism as it was in Southern Sudan. Particularly the radicalization of the ethnic differences was furthered by the Islamist organization Arab Gathering. The International Crisis Group reported on the ideology of this organization which presents Arabs as the standard bearers for religion, culture and civilization and claims they produced the lion s share of the region s wealth. The government delivered some support 1 Юрченко В.П. Конфликт в Дарфуре: истоки, состояние и перспективы, , 3

4 to this fundamentalist organization 2. The local stereotypes also contributed to this polarization of ethnicities. 3. It is widely recognized that one of the conflict factor was the systemic structural violence practiced by the central government towards the region. In their declarations the Darfur rebels described the policy of Khartoum as steady neglect of the Darfurian needs. The fact is that the central government did not invest any substantial resources for the development of infrastructure, social and economic structures in Darfur. The structural violence consisted of low chances of the local elites to participate in the power-sharing at the federal level. This factor tended to unite both Arab and non-arab activists in Darfur, but took predominantly a form of Sudanization and granting privileges to Arab population over Negroid one The third factor became important in one of its political-economic dimensions. Recently it was announced that the region has some oil resources what stimulated the rebels to demand the government to divide the future incomes fairly between the central and local budgets. The rebels envisioned at the beginning 13 % of total incomes 4. The other factors are of procedural character what does not diminish its validity: 5. The conflict began only in after great amount of arms, technical and other support was delivered by the South Sudanese government to the rebel groups in Darfur. The civil war between North (Arabian) and South (Christian African) parts of Sudan started in 1956 and has already taken about 2 millions of lives. There were intensive negotiations in between conflict parties which ended in 2005 with signing of Comprehensive Peace Agreement prescribing the organization of self-determination referenda for South Sudan in January The commentators think that through arms deliveries South Sudan tried to strengthen its own position in negotiations with Khartoum. Notably the title of the leading rebel group in Darfur Sudan Liberation Movement / Army coincides with the name of the South Sudanese rebel forces. 6. The conflict in Darfur developed additionally as a card against Sudan in the framework of regional geopolitics. The rebels in Darfur were supported first of all by Chad and 2 Darfur rising: Sudan s new crisis. International Crisis Group Africa Report 76, 25 March 2004, p. 10, Crisis.ashx 3 Серегичев С.Ю. Дарфур: причины и пути развития конфликта // Ближний Восток и современность. Выпуск 27. М., Институт Ближнего Востока. С Strube-Edelmann B. Der Darfur-Konflikt Genese und Verlauf. Deutscher Bundestag, 2006, s , /Der_Darfur_-_Konflikt_-_Genese_und_Verlauf.pdf 4

5 Eritrea 5. The ruling elite in Chad is of the same ethnic origin as one of the Darfurian rebelling tribe (Zaghawa). But the president of Chad fears the attempts to overthrow his regime through oppositional forces supported by Sudan that s why he has preferred to balance his position between ethnic loyalty and Realpolitik searching for normalization with Khartoum. Libya has been registered as important player too, with clear determination to enhance its regional role inclusively through direct support of conflicting parties 6. Conflict dynamic and actors traditional inter-tribal conflicts in Darfur for the distribution of land and water escalation of the conflict; two rebel groups Sudan Liberation Movement / Army (SLM/A) and Justice and Equality Movement (JEM) accused the government of political, economic and social marginalization of Darfur and took the military actions against the federal forces. In response the Sudanese army in cooperation with Arab militia Janjaweed began to fall on Darfurian villages dramatic humanitarian crisis: 1,5 2 mln. civilians became IDPs and people died. Both sides are guilty of military crimes against civilians the agreement between the African Union, Sudanese government and rebel groups to send the African Union Monitoring Mission in Sudan. The mission did not manage to reach its military and humanitarian aims under the mediation of the African Union Darfur Peace Agreement (DPA) was signed by the government and the SLM/A fraction of Minni Arko Minawi. The compromise was obstructed by SLM/A fraction of Abdel Wahid Mohamed al Nur and the JEM (Khalil Ibrahim). After that the security situation drastically deteriorated because of conflicts between government and rebel groups as well between various rebel fractions supporting or opposing the DPA fractionalism in rebel movement remains one of the main obstacle on the way towards successful peace agreement. Khartoum manage to divide it inclusively through direct bribing and incorporation 8. 5 Маслов А. Дарфурский кризис и проблемы безопасности в Судане // Экспорт вооружений Доклад Международной следственной комиссии по Дарфуру Генеральному секретарю. На основании резолюции 1564 (2004) Совета Безопасности от 18 сентября 2004 года. S/2005/60. С Konfliktübersicht Darfur (Sudan), Zentrum für Internationale Friedenseinsätze, dokumente/veroeffentlichungen/ Darfur_April_09_final.pdf 8 Darfur s new security reality. International Crisis Group Arfica Report 134, November 2007, 5

6 Involvement of the UN Because of the ineffectiveness of the AU Mission the international actors demanded from the government in Khartoum to allow the deployment of the UN forces in Darfur. President Bashir strongly opposed it and gained some support from Arab League, African Union, China and Russia which stressed the importance of preserving rhe Sudanese sovereignty. Additionally the Western countries did not want to destroy the compromise which was established around the conflict with South Sudan through CPA, so their demands were moderate. At the end the agreement was reached stating that the AU Mission in Darfur should be strengthened through the support of the United Nations (Resolution 1769, issued on ). So the Mission was left African in its core what prevented the mission to be effective in interference into internal Sudanese affairs to regulate the security situation. The mandate of the mission was described with such verbs as monitor, contribute, support what means no pro-active steps 10. The UNAMID was not provided with enough mobility, fighting might and mandate to struggle against any threats to security whether they come from government or rebel forces 11. The today s number of UNAMID military personnel is 9745 (out of agreed), policemen 662 persons (out of 715 agreed) 12. The Secretary General has reported since that time that there are many lacks in providing the mission with enough personnel, technical equipment, in gaining the right of free movement from the Sudanese government 13. Besides the Security Council adopted decisions about the embargo on arms deliveries to Darfur and sanction regime for leading politicians in Sudan (freezing of accounts etc.). The International Criminal Court have already issued warrants for the President of Sudan, Janjaweed and some rebel leaders. The negotiations about peace are now led in Doha (Qatar), at various conferences under the aegis of UNAMID and African Union. As experts say the absence of common format is aggravated by competition among various bodies involved for how the financial resources for UNAMID and the programs for reconstruction (billions of dollars from only Qatar and Saudi Arabia every year) should be distributed Резолюция 1769 (2007), принятая Советом Безопасности на его 5727-м заседании 31 июля 2007 года, 10 UNAMID mandate, 11 Серегичев С.Ю. ООН-Дарфур: между дипломатией и силой, , 12 Доклад Генерального секретаря по Судану, S/2010/681, 31 December 2010, 13 Доклад Генерального секретаря о Смешанной операции Африканского Союза-Организации Объединенных наций в Дарфуре (ЮНАМИД), S/2010/543, 18. October 2010, html. 14 Быстров А.А. Дарфур: эра пиара, , 6

7 Interests of external actors The international community is devided over the question how to react on the Darfur conflict. The majority of Arab League and African Union countries (Egypt, Qatar etc.) try to prevent the massive external intrusion in internal political affairs of Sudan applying to Arab identity and some regional interests. China and Russia have important geoeconomic interests in Sudan and struggle for its loyalty in order to get important contracts and concessions. Chinese already controls above 40 % of Sudanese oil what it gained inclusively through credits. In comparison with the West these credits are not made dependent on any political or economic reforms 15. Chinese and Russian arms trade is constantly being criticized by world community. China responded with the thesis that the arms embargo was issued not against Sudan but against deliveries in Darfur 16. The principal position of China is that the conflict can not be solved thanks to pressure and sanctions 17. France has particular interests in the region supporting the regime in Chad. Paris is interested to eliminate the threat for Chad coming from Sudan and any forces supported by Khartoum. The French help has been important for Justice and Equality Movement and during the negotiations the principal interest of Paris is to integrate this group into the peace constellation on the fair basis 18. USA and UK actively follow the events in Darfur but the situation remains for them in the shadow of conflict in South Sudan. This question is highly politicized in the American public because of the activity of non-governmental organizations. The religious background plays a very important role. The Obama administration is ready for concessions (to withdraw Sudan from the list of state sponsors of terrorism) if Khartoum will recognize the results of referenda in South Sudan in January Besides USA expresses their will to end sanctions, undertake debt relief, increase trade and investment after Khartoum will work towards the peaceful solution in Darfur 19. The American government closes its eyes on the activities of the Sudanese army in fighting the rebels in Darfur causing further humanitarian migrations Касаев Э.О. Энергетическая политика и дипломатия Китая в отношении Судана, , 16 China s SR on Darfur holds a briefing in Beijing, 7 March 2008, 17 Pressure, sanctions not helpful for resolving Darfur issue, 18 Бабкин С.Э. Франция и конфликты в Судане, , 19 Remarks by Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton at the United Nations Security Council Ministerial Meeting on Sudan, 16 November 2010, 20 Быстров А.А. Новая американская стратегия по Судану в действии, , 7

8 Today s situation in security sphere The reports of the UN Secretary General give evidence about very unstable situation in Darfur now. Further events are particularly important: 1. The conflicts in IDPs camps between the opponents and proponents of the peaceful agreement with Sudanese government. 2. Preserving inter-ethnic violence, high level of criminal activities and assaults on personnel of UNAMID. 3. The normalization of Sudanese-Chadian relations. Sudan closed the borders for the Chadian oppositional forces threatening the regime in N Djamena. 4. Military successes of Khartoum in fighting the rebels from the Justice and Equality Movement The South Sudanians voted on January 2010 in absolute majority for the independence, 22 so now we have a really decisive moment in history of Sudan which can end peacefully or with proceeding violence and bloodshed. Recommendations for the Security Council meeting 1. To encourage the government of Sudan and South Sudan to fully implement the Comprehensive Peace Agreement, to solve the issues of borders, future referenda in Abyei region etc. what would positively influence the conflict dynamic in Darfur. 2. To welcome the normalization of relations between Susan and Chad. 3. To call the Sudanese government and rebel groups to withhold from human rights abuses during their military actions toward each other. 4. To discuss the appeal to Khartoum not to hinder anyway the activities of UNAMID. 5. To discuss the appeal to Khartoum to think over the possibility to have all sanctions and restrictions dismissed in case of responsible behavior. 6. To discuss the appeal to UN member states to make the agreed contributions to UNAMID personnel and technical capabilities. 7. To discuss the agenda of women and children rights and their use in military actions. 8. To discuss the failure of embargo regime to stop the arms deliveries to Darfur (state borders control, control over arms trade etc.) To discuss the appeal to rebel groups to be represented at the peace talks with one integral voice. 21 Доклад Генерального секретаря о Смешанной операции Африканского Союза-Организации Объединенных наций в Дарфуре (ЮНАМИД) See А.А. Быстров. Судан: доклад экспертов ООН в отношении соблюдения эмбарго на поставки оружия в Дарфур, , 8

9 Map of Sudan Source: International Crisis Group 9

10 Links for further research News 1. UN News: Sudan, asp?infocusid=88&body= Sudan&Body1= 2. Sudan (Darfur): actual news ( ), 3. UN documents and historical chronology: publications on Sudan, councilreport.org/site/c.glkwlemtisg/b /k.6d0b/publications_on_sudan.htm Documents 4. Доклад Международной следственной комиссии по Дарфуру Генеральному секретарю. На основании резолюции 1564 (2004) Совета Безопасности от 18 сентября 2004 года. S/2005/ Links to websites of Permanent Missions of Member States to the UN, 6. African Union/United Nations Hybrid Operation in Darfur, Literature 7. Маслов А. Дарфурский кризис и проблемы безопасности в Судане // Экспорт вооружений International Crisis Group reports and briefings on Sudan, 9. Russian Middle East Institute articles on situation in Sudan and policy of foreign countries towards Darfur, Lindsey T. Darfur A Cultural Handbook. UK Defence Academy, Conflict Studies Research Centre. April Konfliktübersicht Darfur (Sudan), Zentrum für Internationale Friedenseinsätze, dokumente/veroeffentlichungen/ Darfur_April_09_final.pdf 12. Strube-Edelmann B. Der Darfur-Konflikt Genese und Verlauf. Deutscher Bundestag, 2006, /Der_Darfur_-_Konflikt_- _Genese_und_Verlauf.pdf 10