Minneapolis/St. Paul Office MarketView

Transcription

1 Minneapolis/St. Paul Office MarketView Q CBRE Global Research and Consulting BIG 2ND QUARTER HAS VACANCY RATE TRENDING DOWNWARD Quick Stats GDP GROWTH MN EXPORTS MN UNEMPLOYMENT CONSUMER SPENDING S&P 500 Q Q-o-Q Y-o-Y Direct Vacancy 16.8% Lease Rates $13.10 Net Absorption SF 387,134 Under Construction 0 1 *The arrows are trend indicators over the specified time period and do not represent a positive or negative value. (e.g., absorption could be negative, but still represent a positive trend over a specified period.) Hot Topics The overall market saw a large uptick in absorption, as several large tenants throughout the market took occupancy this quarter. Class A office space continues to be highly sought after, driving up lease rates for premier locations. Minneapolis CBD leads the way with over 200,000 sq. ft. of positive absorption. Investment sale activity for office buildings continues to be strong, as the multi-tenant markets draw interest from both local and international investors. Polaris will move into the formerly vacant Bass Creek Corp Center in Plymouth after purchasing the building last month. They will occupy all 120,122 sq. ft. The City of Minneapolis will look to consolidate all of their downtown offices into three buildings, creating a downtown campus office core. Market Overview After a relatively stagnant Q1 2014, the Minneapolis/St. Paul office market rebounded with the second best quarter in the last nine years. The market saw positive net absorption totaling 387,134 sq. ft. during Q (based on actual occupancy) resulting in the direct vacancy rate decreasing by 50 basis points to 16.8%. Class A properties saw increased activity in most submarkets, increasing asking rental rates and decreasing overall vacancy. With the market tightening for Class A space, landlords of Class B and C properties are beginning to see more foot traffic through their buildings, especially if they have invested in upgrading their buildings amenities. The tenant trend during the last few years throughout the office market has been right-sizing, and although users remain dedicated to keeping real estate costs low, the large absorption number may be a sign that they are gaining confidence as they begin to renew their leases for equal or more space instead of less. Users also continue to look for space that offers them the ability to setup shared work-space for their employees in an effort to attract and retain younger employees, as well as promote collaboration. Office leasing saw increased activity during the Q with several large users relocating. TCF Financial, in a move that contrasts with the recent trend of relocating downtown, decided to leave their space at the TCF Tower and TCF Bank Building and signed a 363,160-sq.-ft. deal at Plymouth Corporate Center, near the intersection of I- 494 and Highway 6 in Plymouth. They will leave approximately 319,000 sq. ft. downtown and another 26,000 sq. ft. in Fridley to consolidate at their new Plymouth location. As office leasing activity has picked up in recent months, office investment sales activity continues to flourish with several high-profile office sales closing during the second quarter. One of the more notable sales was that of the 601 Carlson Tower located at the intersection of I-394 and I- 494 in Minnetonka. Purchased by Artis REIT for $75 million, the sale price indicates the overall strength of the current investment market. Investment sales activity is expected to pick up even further over the next two quarters. As we head into the second half of 2014, we expect vacancy to continue downward throughout the market. Rates will continue to rise with the decreasing vacancy leading active users to explore more Class B and C choices unless they are willing to pay premium rates. Overall, we are pleased with the strengthening Minneapolis/St. Paul office market.

2 Figure 1: Notable Lease Transactions Tenant Property Address City Size (SF) TCF Financial Plymouth Corporate Center 1405 Xenium Ln N Plymouth 363,160 Polaris Bass Creek Corporate Center th Ave Plymouth 120,122 The Lacek Group Oracle Centre 900 S 2 nd Ave Minneapolis 60,096* Concur MoneyGram Tower 1550 Utica Ave St. Louis Park 50,141 Weber Shandwick 510 Marquette Building 510 Marquette Ave Minneapolis 45,000 Bremer Financial Lawson Commons 380 St. Peter Street St. Paul 34,000 * Lease Renewal ** Sublease Lease and Sale Highlights The amount of leasing activity in the Minneapolis/St. Paul office market continues to pick up as tenants are beginning to feel confident enough to upgrade their space while locking in lower rates with longer-term deals. An example of this is the company Concur, who will vacate their 40,000- sq.-ft. Class C building in Eden Prairie later this year and will move into 50,141 sq. ft. at the Class A MoneyGram Tower in St. Louis Park. The Minneapolis CBD continues to see the most leasing activity, with many tenants following suit to The Lacek Group s example, who just signed an early renewal on their 60,096-sq.-ft. lease at the Oracle Centre in order to avoid the higher asking rates being predicted for the foreseeable future. Soon-to-be newcomer to the CBD is public relations firm Weber Shandwick, who signed a long-term 45,000-sq.-ft. lease at the newlyrenovated 510 Marquette building. Weber will take occupancy in mid when their lease expires in Bloomington, where they have been located for more than two decades. The availability of capital for the Minneapolis/St. Paul investment sale market remains strong as investors continue their pursuit of yield and deal flow. While 2012 and 2013 were dominated by CBD and single tenant sales, the suburban multi-tenant markets are picking up momentum in In Q2 2014, some notable investment sales included the $75 million sale of the 601 Tower at Carlson Center in Minnetonka and the $53 million sale of the United Health Group HQ in Minnetonka that was sold to United Health Group for occupancy. With many deals near closing that will carry into the next quarter, Q is shaping up to record more sale volume than the first two quarters combined. 601 Carlson Tower 601 Carlson Parkway, Minnetonka Buyer: Artis REIT Seller: KBS REIT II Price: $75,000,000 Size: Approx. 288,000 SF Price PSF: $260 Key Tenants: Wells Fargo Advisors, RBC Capital Markets, Pine River Capital Percent Leased: 99.7% Last Sale Price: $54,000,000 in 2011 when the building was only 90% leased Figure 2: Notable Sale Transactions Property Size (SF) Address City Buyer Price Price PSF 601 Carlson Tower 288, Carlson Parkway Minnetonka Artis REIT $75,000,000 $260 2 Opus Center 321, Bren Rd E Minnetonka United Health Group $53,000,000 $165 The Hartford Building 340, Bielenberg Dr Woodbury Intrepid Holdings $18,000,000 $ Nicollet Mall 100, Nicollet Mall Minneapolis CenterPoint Energy $11,800,000 $118 2 Bass Creek Corporate Center 120, th Ave N Plymouth Polaris Industries $10,856,102 $91

3 % Vacancy Economy Figure 3: Unemployment 12% 9% 6% 3% 0% Source: BLS, June Figure 4: Minnesota Business Bankruptcies Minneapolis-St. Paul 4.1% Minnesota 4.6% United States 6.1% Source: Moody s Analytics, Keystone Report, Feb Note: 2013 and 2014 figures are estimates and projections, respectively, for the entire year. The Minneapolis-St. Paul economic outlook has remained stable and overall positive through the first half of The Department of Employment and Economic Development (DEED) reports that the state s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (as of May 31 st ) is currently at 4.6%, down slightly from March s revised unemployment rate of 4.8%. The state s unemployment rate is still well below the U.S. seasonally adjusted unemployment rate of 6.1%. Furthermore, the Minneapolis-St. Paul unemployment rate, currently at 4.1%, is the lowest among all U.S. metropolitan areas. The most current numbers released by DEED show that Minnesota has gained a total of 10,300 jobs in May and over 45,000 jobs year-over-year, a growth rate of 1.6%. Of the 11 tracked industries, seven of them added jobs during May including professional and business services (4,100), construction (3,800), manufacturing (2,900), and information (900). Meanwhile, government cut 1,300 jobs and leisure and hospitality about 600 jobs during that same time period. Finally, the state of Minnesota was recently ranked the 6 th best state for business, according to CNBC s 8 th annual America s Top States For Business rankings. Up nine spots from last year s ranking of 15 th, Minnesota was noted for a superior quality of life, vibrant economy, and a robust infrastructure. The rankings are compiled by scoring states on 56 measures of competitiveness in 10 categories. Minnesota performed best in the quality of life measurements, as well as in categories of infrastructure and transportation and the economy. The only other Midwestern state in the Top 10 was North Dakota, coming in at 10 th. Figure 5: Vacancy Rate / Net Lease Rate Vacancy Rate 16.8% Lease Rate $ % $ % $ % 10 % $1 2 $1 0 $ per sq. ft. 3 6% Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q $8 3

4 4 Figure 6: Market Statistics Market Rentable Area (SF) Direct Vacancy Rate (%) Q Net Absorption (SF) 2014 Net Absorption (SF) Speculative Multi-tenant Under Construction (SF) Avg. Asking Lease Rate ($/SF/YR) Availability Rate (%) Metro Overall 68,127, , ,073 - $ Class A 33,886, , ,187 - $ Class B 25,825, ,363 (72,743) - $ Class C 8,415, (23,674) 10,629 - $ Suburban 36,770, , ,771 - $ Class A 16,220, , ,698 - $ Class B 15,301, (5,344) (107,605) - $ Class C 5,247, (32,326) 14,678 - $ Corridor 17,135, ,848 (18,336) - $ Class A 8,341, ,649 31,893 - $ Class B 6,970, ,080 (56,515) - $ Class C 1,823, (4,881) 6,286 - $ Corridor 8,737, , ,399 - $ Class A 4,106, , ,230 - $ Class B 3,508, ,015 (22,969) - $ Class C 1,122, ,138 - $ Northwest 1,310, (20,384) 2,137 - $ Class A 127, (6,508) (6,508) - $ Class B 846, ,292 16,384 - $ Class C 336, (15,168) (7,739) - $ Sub St. Paul 3,074, ,418 26,752 - $ Class A 1,191, ,909 15,597 - $ Class B 1,033, (6,038) (11,278) - $ Class C 849, ,547 22,433 - $ BEA Market 2,491, (21,179) (9,937) - $ Class A 1,403, ,180 17,007 - $ Class B 785, (48,320) (26,295) - $ Class C 302, (1,039) (649) - $ Midway Market 4,020, (27,613) (29,244) - $ Class A 1,051, (25,642) (6,521) - $ Class B 2,156, ,627 (6,932) - $ Class C 812, (16,598) (15,791) - $ St. Paul CBD 7,230, ,422 (3,713) - $ Class A 2,565, (11,630) (22,784) - $ Class B 4,065, ,046 20,709 - $ Class C 599, ,006 (1,638) - $ Minneapolis CBD 24,126, , ,015 - $ Class A 15,099, , ,273 - $ Class B 6,458, ,661 14,153 - $ Class C 2,568, ,646 (2,411) - $ *Total Vacancy Rate May Not Add Up Due To Rounding 4

5 New Construction SF (Millions) Net Absorption SF (Millions) Figure 7: Metro Absorption Absorption 2014 YTD 366, (0.5) (1.0) (1.5) Figure 8: Multi-Tenant Construction Under Construction 0 SF The overall Minneapolis/St. Paul metro market saw 387,134 sq. ft. of positive net absorption during Q This is the largest single quarter absorption value seen since 2012, and is representative of an improving office market. Although Minneapolis CBD led the way in terms of net absorption with almost 230,000 sq. ft., there was plenty of activity in the suburban market as well, which saw over 130,000 sq. ft. of positive net absorption market-wide. It s also worth noting the amount of net absorption seen in Class A properties - 428,187 sq. ft. of positive net absorption through the first half of compared with the absorption seen in Class B and C buildings combined YTD, which totals 62,114 sq. ft. of negative absorption. Speculative new construction remains nonexistent and has been that way for several years, with only two spec buildings in the pipeline. The second phase of the MoZaic project in the Uptown area is planned to be built on a surface parking lot next to the existing MoZaic building. The other planned spec building is MOA Crossings, part of the new Mall of America development breaking ground this spring. However, there are several large build-to-suit projects set to break ground within the next year or two. Leading the way is Wells Fargo, building two 17-story towers in the Downtown East development totaling over 1.2 million sq. ft. of office space. This project has a substantial impact on any potential speculative office building construction, as Wells Fargo will vacate much of its existing space when they move employees into their new towers. Other build-to-suit projects include Xcel Energy, Be The Match (NMDP), and CenterPoint Energy all building new headquarters in downtown Minneapolis. Figure 9: Vacancy vs. Availability Direct Vacancy 16.8% Availability 17.9% The Minneapolis/St. Paul office market s total availability rate is currently 17.9%, showing a 30 basis point decrease quarter-over-quarter and 20 basis point decrease yearover-year In the suburban market, both availability and vacancy decreased from the Q1 2014, dropping 10 and 40 basis points, respectively. Buildings along the I-394 corridor continue to draw the most attention from tenants looking for space in the suburbs, as shown by the submarket s drop in vacancy by 200 basis points. Vacancy and availability in the Minneapolis CBD saw a significant drop as well due to the large amount of absorption seen in Q The submarket s vacancy rate is down 110 basis points this quarter and 140 basis points year-over-year. The availability rate shows not only space that is currently vacant, but also space that is occupied and being marketed as available for sublease. 5

6 Figure 10: Submarket Map Net Leases Lease types whereby the tenant pays an agreed rent plus most, or all, of the operating expenses and taxes for the property, including utilities, insurance and/or maintenance expenses. Market Coverage Includes all multi-tenant office buildings 30,000 square feet and greater in size. Net Absorption The change in total (direct and sublease) occupied square feet from one period to the next. Net Rentable Area The gross building square footage minus the elevator core, flues, pipe shafts, vertical ducts, balconies and stairwell areas. Direct Available Square Feet Available Building Area which is either physically vacant or occupied. Does not include sublease space. Total Available Square Feet Available Building Area which is either physically vacant or occupied. Includes sublease space. Direct Vacant Square Feet Existing Building Area which is physically vacant or immediately available. Does not include sublease or shadow space. Total Vacant Square Feet Existing Building Area which is physically vacant or immediately available. Includes sublease and shadow space. Minneapolis CBRE 2013 Numbers 6 For more information about this local MarketView, please contact: Tyler Kollodge - Market Analyst CBRE- Minneapolis, MN t: e: tyler.kollodge@cbre.com + FOLLOW US 6 Global Research and Consulting This report was prepared by the CBRE U.S. Research Team which forms part of CBRE Global Research and Consulting a network of preeminent researchers and consultants who collaborate to provide real estate market research, econometric forecasting and consulting solutions to real estate investors and occupiers around the globe. Disclaimer Information contained herein, including projections, has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. While we do not doubt its accuracy, we have not verified it and make no guarantee, warranty or representation about it. It is your responsibility to confirm independently its accuracy and completeness. This information is presented exclusively for use by CBRE clients and professionals and all rights to the material are reserved and cannot be reproduced without prior written permission of CBRE.