FORM F1. Prepared for: DUNDEE ENERGY LIMITED In respect of assets held by DUNDEE ENERGY LIMITED PARTNERSHIP
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1 FORM F1 Prepared for: DUNDEE ENERGY LIMITED In respect of assets held by DUNDEE ENERGY LIMITED PARTNERSHIP Statement of reserves data and other oil and gas information as of December 31, 2014 Prepared by Deloitte February 12, 2015
2 Table of contents Page Part 1 Date of statement 1 Part 2 Disclosure of reserves data 2 Part 3 Pricing assumptions 2 Part 4 Reconciliations of changes in reserves 3 Part 5 Additional information relating to reserves data 3 Part 6 Other oil and gas information 4 Reserve definitions 13 Appendix 14
3 1 Part 1 Date of statement Date of statement: February 12, 2015 Effective date: December 31, 2014 Preparation date: February 12, 2015 Deloitte LLP (Deloitte) was contracted by Dundee Energy Limited (the Company) to evaluate the assets held by Dundee Energy Limited Partnership (DELP) effective December 31, Deloitte was engaged by the Company to evaluate proved and proved plus probable reserves; no valuation of possible reserves or resources was undertaken. The evaluation was prepared in accordance with National Instrument Standards of Disclosure for Oil and Gas Activities and the Canadian Oil and Gas Evaluation Handbook (COGE Handbook). DELP s oil and gas reserves are located on shore and off shore in Ontario, Canada and in southern Alberta, Canada. The reserves on the properties described herein are estimates only. By its nature, such forecasting of reserves and related economic parameters and analyses are forward-looking statements based on predictions of future events and assumptions. Actual events or results may differ materially. Furthermore, the estimated future net revenue contained in the following tables does not necessarily represent the fair market value of the reserves. In certain instances, numbers may not total due to computer-generated rounding.
4 2 Part 2 Item 2.1 Disclosure of reserves data Reserves data (forecast prices and costs) Item Item Item Breakdown of proved reserves (forecast case) Please refer to NI Forecast Case Oil and Gas Reserves Summary in the Appendix. present value of future net revenue (forecast case) Please refer to NI Forecast Case Summary of Present Values of Future Revenue in the Appendix. Additional information concerning future net revenue (forecast case) Please refer to NI Forecast Case Total Future Revenue (Undiscounted), and NI Forecast Case Unit Value of Reserves by Production Group in the Appendix. Item 2.2 Supplemental disclosure of reserves data (constant prices and costs) Supplemental constant price estimates are not reported. Item 2.3 Reserves disclosure varies with accounting DELP is wholly owned by Dundee Energy Limited, a TSX public company. The general partner of DELP is Dundee Oil and Gas Limited. Item 2.4 Future net revenue disclosure varies with accounting DELP is wholly owned by Dundee Energy Limited, a TSX public company. The general partner of DELP is Dundee Oil and Gas Limited. Part 3 Item 3.1 Pricing assumptions Constant prices used in estimates Supplemental constant price estimates are not reported. Item 3.2 Forecast prices used in estimates Forecast oil and gas prices are set out in the Deloitte Price Forecast effective December 31, 2014 (see Appendix). All prices are stated in Canadian dollars unless otherwise indicated. Adjustments for oil differential and gas heating values are applied to these prices, as appropriate for each entity. Capital and operating costs are inflated.
5 3 Part 4 Item 4.1 Reconciliation of changes in reserves Reserves reconciliation Please refer to NI Forecast Case - Reconciliation of Company Reserves by Principal Product in the Appendix. Part 5 Item 5.1 Additional information relating to reserves data Undeveloped reserves No additional undeveloped reserves were assigned this year. In 2010, 19 locations were assigned undeveloped reserves in the Grimsby/Whirlpool Formation. These locations are located in the Off Shore Central property (10 proved locations and four probable locations) and the Off Shore East property (five proved locations). Reserves and initial rates were assigned based on analogy with the offsetting wells and production was assumed to decline exponentially. The locations were forecast over a two year period; however, drilling is subject to gas prices. In the Off Shore Central property in 2014 based on current forecast gas prices, only 10 of the original 14 locations evaluated were assigned economic reserves. Six locations were assigned proved undeveloped and proved plus probable undeveloped reserves and, four locations assigned probable undeveloped reserves. Some of these locations were forecast to come on-stream in 2012, this has not occurred and the planned capital and forecast start date for these locations has therefore been moved forward to 2016 and In the Off Shore East property all locations that were originally scheduled to be put on production in 2013 have been moved forward by two years to 2016 as available data and other pertinent information does not indicate that any capital has been spent or recorded production from these locations. Oil Natural gas NGLs First attributed Cumulative First attributed Cumulative First attributed Cumulative *, Mbbl *, Mbbl *, MMcf *, MMcf *, Mbbl *, Mbbl Proved undeveloped Prior - - 3, , , , , Probable undeveloped Prior - - 2, , , , , * = working interest before royalties. Prior to June 29, 2010, the Company did not own these assets, therefore did not book any reserves.
6 4 Item 5.2 Significant factors or uncertainties Reserve estimates are subject to change with such factors as, updated production data, well performance and operational issues, ongoing development activities, price forecasts, and other economic conditions. Item 5.3 Future development costs Future capital expenditures will be funded from cash flow and will not make any projects uneconomic. If the size of a capital program exceeds cash flow, the company could consider debt or equity as a secondary source of funding. Future costs (M$) Year Proved Proved + probable , , , , Total 8, ,745.7 Part 6 Item 6.1 Other oil and gas information Oil and gas properties and wells Item Major properties Off Shore East The Off Shore East property is located on Lake Erie, on the Canadian side of the US/Canada border. The property consists of the area of the lake between Crystal Beach and Turkey Point, Ontario. DELP holds between 90 and 100 percent working interests along with various NPI and GORR interests in three groups and five locations. The three groups (which constitute the majority of the value in the property) are the Lake Erie E Nanticoke, Lake Erie E Port Maitland, and Lake Erie E Trustco groups. All three groups target gas production from the Whirlpool, and Grimsby Formations. Off Shore Central The Off Shore Central property is located on Lake Erie, on the Canadian side of the US/Canada border. The property consists of the area of the lake between Turkey Point and Port Talbot, Ontario. DELP holds a 100 percent working interest in one proved developed producing group, one proved developed non-producing group, and ten locations. The majority of production within this property targets gas production from the Whirlpool and Grimsby Formations. Hillman The Hillman property is a highly developed oil and gas asset located in Essex County, Ontario; more specifically the Mersea, Gosfield, and Olinda areas. DELP holds an 82.5 to 100 percent working interest in 43 oil wells, and two oil Units. The wells are all producing from the Middle Ordovician, Trenton or Black River Group Formations. Renwick The Renwick property is a developed oil and gas asset located in Essex and Kent Counties, Ontario; more specifically the Mersea and Romney areas. DELP holds 100
7 5 percent working interest in 11 producing wells targeting oil production from the Middle Ordovician group of Formations. Other properties The list of Other Properties includes Corey East, Goldsmith, Mikwan, Minors, Off Shore West, Off Shore West Central, Petrolia East, Rochester, and Single Well Oil Battery. All of these are located in Ontario with some being offshore on Lake Erie, with the exception of Mikwan, which is located in southern Alberta. Item and net oil and gas wells Oil Gas Non-producing Total Country/Province Canada Ontario Alberta Total Item 6.2 Properties with no attributed reserves As at December 31, 2014 DELP onshore and offshore Ontario assets have a combined total acreage of 386,116 acres (net 376,715). DELP s Alberta assets have a total acreage of 640 acres (net 160 acres). Summarized below is the portion of this acreage that is considered undeveloped. Undeveloped acreage Province, acres, acres Canada Ontario Offshore 46,654 46,645 Ontario Onshore 48,534 45,177 Alberta 0 0 Total 95,188 91,822 These lands have no financial commitment on them other than annual rental payments to the Ministry of Natural Resources or Freehold lessors. Item 6.3 Forward contracts The Company s 2014 risk management contracts matured on December 31, 2014 and settled on January 26, 2015 at a negative value of $340,854.
8 6 Item 6.4 Additional information concerning abandonment and reclamation costs No. of net wells Included in evaluation Not included in evaluation 0 Area Ontario Off Shore Ontario On Shore Alberta cost of abandonment and reclamation $70,000/well $100,000/well $60,000/well Forecast Proved Proved plus probable abandonment Discounted at Discounted at Undiscounted Undiscounted costs 10% 10% M$ M$ M$ M$ Total Next 3 fiscal years 4, , , ,660.8 Following years 84, , , ,671.9 Total 88, , , ,332.7 Item 6.5 Tax horizon DELP is a limited partnership and, as such, is not subject to income taxes in Canada. The Corporation, as the sole limited partner in DELP is expected to be cash taxable in Item 6.6 Costs incurred DELP spent $3.3 million on capital exploration and evaluation activities during 2014 and a further $1.3 million in exploration and development activities were expensed during Item 6.7 Exploration and development activities Exploration and evaluation expenditures were $3.3 million in 2014, including $0.7 million incurred on the acquisition and processing of 2-D and 3-D seismic data, which will be used to identify future drill locations. Another $2.6 million of costs were incurred on undeveloped properties, including $1.3 million of costs incurred on two exploration wells. The one well requires further testing and analysis to determine flow rates and its economic viability. The other exploration well in which we are 50% working interest partner has shown good test results to December 31, The operator and the Corporation are planning pipeline connections for this well for The remaining $1.3 million of exploration and evaluation costs were incurred on maintenance costs associated with undeveloped land, including leasing costs.
9 7 Item 6.8 Production estimates Forecast production working interest January 1, December 31, 2015 Proved Proved + probable Off Shore East Gas (MMcf) 2, ,039.3 Off Shore Central Gas (MMcf) 1, ,083.0 Hillman Oil (Mbbl) Gas (MMcf) Renwick Oil (Mbbl) Gas (MMcf) NGL (Mbbl) Others Oil (Mbbl) Gas (MMcf) 1, ,039.9 NGL (Mbbl) Total Oil (Mbbl) Gas (MMcf) 4, ,277.5 NGL (Mbbl)
10 8 Item 6.9 Production history total company All values appearing in the following tables are working interest numbers calculated using lease operating statements. Total Company Q Q Q Q Production Light oil + NGLs, bopd Gas, Mcf/d 8,485 9,085 11,746 12,999 Boe/d 1,976 2,166 2,493 2,747 Light Oil and NGLs Averages, $/Boe Price Royalties paid Operating cost back Natural Gas Averages, $/Mcf Price Royalties paid Operating cost back
11 9 Production history by field Off Shore East (1 of 4) Off Shore East Q Q Q Q Production Light oil, bopd Gas, Mcf/d 4,710 4,557 5,787 6,097 Boe/d ,021 Light Oil and NGLs Averages, $/Boe Price Royalties paid Operating cost back Natural Gas Averages, $/Mcf Price Royalties paid Operating cost back
12 10 Production history by field Off Shore Central (2 of 4) Off Shore Central Q Q Q Q Production Light oil, bopd Gas, Mcf/d 1,642 1,213 3,469 3,612 Boe/d Light Oil and NGLs Averages, $/Boe Price Royalties paid Operating cost back Natural Gas Averages, $/Mcf Price Royalties paid Operating cost back
13 11 Production history by field - Hillman (3 of 4) Hillman Q Q Q Q Production Light oil, bopd Gas, Mcf/d Boe/d Light Oil and NGLs Averages, $/Boe Price Royalties paid Operating cost back Natural Gas Averages, $/Mcf Price Royalties paid Operating cost back
14 12 Production history by field - Renwick (4 of 4) Renwick Q Q Q Q Production Light oil + NGLs, bopd Gas, Mcf/d Boe/d Light Oil and NGLs Averages, $/Boe Price Royalties paid Operating cost back Natural Gas Averages, $/Mcf Price Royalties paid Operating cost back
15 13 Reserve definitions Reserves are classified in accordance with the following definitions which meet the standards established by National Instrument , Standards of Disclosure for Oil and Gas Activities and found in Appendix 1 to Companion Policy CP, Part 2 Definition of Reserves. Reserve categories Reserves are estimated remaining quantities of oil and natural gas and related substances anticipated to be recoverable from known accumulations, from a given date forward, based on analysis of drilling, geological, geophysical and engineering data; the use of established technology; and specified economic conditions, which are generally accepted as being reasonable and are disclosed. Reserves are classified according to the degree of certainty associated with the estimates: Proved Reserves are those reserves that can be estimated with a high degree of certainty to be recoverable. It is likely that the actual remaining quantities recovered will exceed the estimated proved reserves. Probable Reserves are those additional reserves that are less certain to be recovered than proved reserves. It is equally likely that the actual remaining quantities recovered will be greater or less than the sum of the estimated proved plus probable reserves. Possible Reserves are those additional reserves that are less certain to be recovered than probable reserves. It is unlikely that the actual remaining quantities recovered will exceed the sum of the estimated proved plus probable plus possible reserves. Development and production status Each of the reserves categories (proved, probable and possible) may be divided into developed and undeveloped categories: Developed Reserves are those reserves that are expected to be recovered from existing wells and installed facilities or, if facilities have not been installed, that would involve a low expenditure (for example, when compared to the cost of drilling a well) to put the reserves on production. The developed category may be subdivided into producing and non-producing. Developed Producing Reserves are those reserves that are expected to be recovered from completion intervals open at the time of the estimate. These reserves may be currently producing, or if shut-in, they must have previously been on production, and the date of resumption of production must be known with reasonable certainty. Developed Non-Producing Reserves are those reserves that either have not been on production, or have previously been on production, but are shut-in, and the date of resumption of production is unknown. Undeveloped Reserves are those reserves expected to be recovered from known accumulations where a significant expenditure (for example, when compared to the cost of drilling a well) is required to render them capable of production. They must fully meet the requirements of the reserves classification (proved, probable, possible) to which they are assigned.
16 14 Appendix NI forecast case Oil and gas reserves summary NI forecast case Summary of net present values of future net revenue NI forecast case Total future net revenue (with corporate tax pools) NI forecast case Unit value of net reserves by production group NI forecast case Reconciliation of company gross reserves by principal product Deloitte Price Forecast Form F2
17 15 Dundee Energy Limited Partnership NI FORECAST CASE OIL AND GAS RESERVES SUMMARY Deloitte December 31, 2014 Forecast Pricing Effective December 31, 2014 Canada VOLUMES IN IMPERIAL UNITS Oil Gas Light, Medium and Shale Heavy Bitumen Associated and Non-Associated Coalbed Methane Natural Gas Liquids Sulphur Total BOE CATEGORY Mstb Mstb Mstb Mstb Mstb Mstb MMcf MMcf MMcf MMcf Mstb Mstb Mlt Mlt Mboe Mboe PDP 1, , , , , ,068.2 PDNP PUD , , TP 1, , , , , ,862.1 PB , , , ,453.8 P+P 2, , , , , ,315.9 VOLUMES IN METRIC UNITS Oil Gas Light, Medium and Shale Heavy Bitumen Associated and Non-Associated Coalbed Methane Natural Gas Liquids Sulphur Total BOE CATEGORY E 3 m 3 E 3 m 3 E 3 m 3 E 3 m 3 E 3 m 3 E 3 m 3 E 6 m 3 E 6 m 3 E 6 m 3 E 6 m 3 E 3 m 3 E 3 m 3 E 3 t E 3 t E 3 m 3 e E 3 m 3 e PDP , , , ,076.7 PDNP PUD TP , , , ,202.8 PB P+P , , , ,751.7
18 16 Effective December 31, 2014 Dundee Energy Limited Partnership NI FORECAST CASE SUMMARY OF NET PRESENT VALUES OF FUTURE NET REVENUE TH CORPORATE TAX POOLS Deloitte December 31, 2014 Forecast Pricing Canada Unit Value Before Income Taxes After Income Taxes Before Income Tax 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% Discounted at 10% RESERVES CATEGORY M$ M$ M$ M$ M$ M$ M$ M$ M$ M$ $/boe Proved Developed Producing 508, , , , , , , , , , Proved Developed Non-Producing 5, , , , , , , , , , Proved Undeveloped 13, , , , , , , , , , Proved 527, , , , , , , , , , Probable 207, , , , , , , , , , Proved Plus Probable 734, , , , , , , , , , Unit Value calculation based on Boe reserves.
19 17 Dundee Energy Limited Partnership NI FORECAST CASE TOTAL FUTURE NET REVENUE TH CORPORATE TAX POOLS Deloitte December 31, 2014 Forecast Pricing Effective December 31, 2014 Canada Revenue* Royalties Operating Costs Investment Costs Well Abandonment Costs Future Revenue Before Income Taxes Income Taxes Future Revenue After Income Taxes CATEGORY M$ M$ M$ M$ M$ M$ M$ M$ PDP 983, , , , , , ,703.9 PDNP 10, , , , , ,975.2 PUD 33, , , , , , , ,054.5 TP 1,027, , , , , , , ,733.7 PB 328, , , , , , , ,137.4 P+P 1,355, , , , , , , ,871.0 *Revenue includes product revenue and other income from facilities, wells and corporate if specified.
20 18 Dundee Energy Limited Partnership NI FORECAST CASE UNIT VALUE OF NET RESERVES BY PRODUCTION GROUP Deloitte December 31, 2014 Forecast Pricing Effective December 31, 2014 Canada Reserves Oil Gas NGL BOE NPV Unit Value 10% Mbbl MMcf Mbbl boe M$ $/boe LIGHT & MEDIUM CRUDE OIL Proved Developed Producing 1, , , Proved Developed Non-Producing , Proved Undeveloped Proved 1, , , , Probable , Proved Plus Probable 1, , , , ASSOCIATED & NON-ASSOCIATED GAS Proved Developed Producing , , , Proved Developed Non-Producing Proved Undeveloped 0.0 3, , Proved , , , Probable , , , Proved Plus Probable , , , COALBED METHANE Proved Developed Producing Proved Developed Non-Producing Proved Undeveloped Proved Probable Proved Plus Probable TOTAL Proved Developed Producing 1, , , , Proved Developed Non-Producing , Proved Undeveloped 0.0 3, , Proved 1, , , , Probable , , , Proved Plus Probable 1, , , , Values may not add due to rounding
21 19 Opening: Deloitte December 31, 2013 Forecast Pricing Closing: Deloitte December 31, 2014 Forecast Pricing Dundee Energy Limited Partnership NI FORECAST CASE RECONCILIATION OF COMPANY GROSS RESERVES BY PRINCIPAL PRODUCT Effective December 31, 2014 Canada Proved Light & Medium Oil Heavy Oil Associated & Non-Associated Gas Coalbed Methane Natural Gas Liquids Probable Proved + Probable Proved Probable Proved + Probable Proved Probable Proved + Probable Proved Probable Proved + Probable Proved Probable Mstb Mstb Mstb Mstb Mstb Mstb Mstb Mstb Mstb Mstb Mstb Mstb Mstb Mstb Mstb Proved + Probable Opening Balance 1, ,282.1 Production Technical Revisions Extensions & Improved Recovery Discoveries Acquisitions Dispositions Economic Factors Infill Drilling Closing Balance 1, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
22 20 Deloitte Resource Evaluation & Advisory Canadian Domestic Forecast Base Case Forecast Effective December Crude Oil Pricing Natural Gas Liquids Pricing Natural Gas Pricing Sulphur Edmonton Par Prices Alberta Alberta Alberta B.C. WTI at WTI at WCS Bow River Heavy Oil Reference AECO AECO Direct Cushing Cushing Edmonton Edmonton 20.5 Deg. API 25 Deg. API 12 Deg. API Pentanes + Average Average Average Stn. 2 Alberta Price Cost CAD to USD Oklahoma Oklahoma City Gate City Gate Hardisty Hardisty Hardisty Ethane Propane Butane Condensate Price Price Price Sales NYMEX NYMEX Plant Gate Inflation Inflation Exchange US$/bbl US$/bbl C$/bbl C$/bbl C$/bbl C$/bbl C$/bbl C$/bbl C$/bbl C$/bbl C$/bbl C$/mcf C$/mcf C$/mcf C$/mcf US$/Mcf US$/Mcf C$/lt Rate Rate Rate Real Current Real Current Current Current Current Current Current Current Current Current Real Current Current Real Current Current H % 1.8% $49.68 $41.40 $63.50 $52.91 $36.14 $37.98 $30.40 $19.05 $35.16 $44.02 $55.47 $6.31 $7.86 $6.55 $6.53 $7.08 $5.90 $40.71 i % 2.2% $66.64 $56.56 $81.63 $69.29 $44.60 $45.62 $33.70 $23.78 $43.19 $51.88 $74.72 $8.30 $10.32 $8.76 $8.22 $10.38 $8.81 $40.99 s % 2.0% $76.04 $66.02 $84.40 $73.28 $51.22 $51.90 $39.53 $19.83 $44.07 $58.16 $78.18 $6.56 $7.53 $6.54 $6.58 $7.77 $6.75 $19.53 t % 2.1% $81.62 $72.32 $86.96 $77.05 $52.90 $53.87 $39.76 $18.42 $49.75 $59.35 $81.64 $6.20 $7.28 $6.45 $6.40 $7.88 $6.98 $38.02 o % 2.4% $ $99.57 $ $ $82.95 $83.90 $73.08 $22.59 $56.96 $83.54 $ $7.88 $9.01 $8.16 $8.20 $9.79 $8.86 $ r % 0.3% $66.47 $61.65 $71.27 $66.10 $58.66 $59.80 $54.40 $11.61 $34.62 $56.21 $69.52 $3.85 $4.27 $3.96 $4.17 $4.26 $3.95 ($5.08) i % 1.8% $85.34 $79.40 $83.62 $77.80 $67.22 $68.18 $60.62 $11.53 $45.19 $68.79 $84.06 $3.76 $4.31 $4.01 $4.01 $4.72 $4.39 $56.94 c % 2.9% $ $94.88 $ $95.54 $77.12 $78.42 $69.60 $10.30 $52.41 $86.98 $ $3.46 $3.83 $3.63 $3.34 $4.22 $4.00 $ a % 1.5% $96.47 $94.11 $88.74 $86.57 $73.10 $74.41 $64.07 $6.73 $30.80 $75.47 $99.71 $2.25 $2.45 $2.39 $2.29 $2.82 $2.75 $ l % 0.9% $98.84 $97.91 $94.25 $93.36 $74.97 $76.29 $65.49 $8.68 $38.54 $77.44 $ $2.98 $3.20 $3.17 $3.08 $3.77 $3.73 $ Mths H 2.0% 2.0% $93.90 $93.90 $95.95 $95.95 $81.53 $81.99 $73.73 $12.61 $40.80 $57.94 $ $4.26 $4.56 $4.56 $4.39 $4.41 $4.41 $ Mths F 0.0% 0.0% $67.00 $67.00 $70.95 $70.95 $55.45 $56.45 $46.95 $10.80 $28.40 $46.10 $70.95 $3.65 $3.85 $3.85 $3.75 $3.70 $3.70 $ Avg. N/A N/A $93.90 $93.90 $95.95 $95.95 $81.53 $81.99 $73.73 $12.61 $40.80 $57.94 $ $4.26 $4.56 $4.56 $4.39 $4.41 $4.41 $77.67 F % 0.0% $67.00 $67.00 $70.95 $70.95 $55.45 $56.45 $46.95 $10.80 $28.40 $46.10 $70.95 $3.65 $3.85 $3.85 $3.75 $3.70 $3.70 $75.00 o % 2.0% $70.00 $71.40 $75.60 $77.10 $61.30 $62.30 $52.65 $11.60 $30.85 $50.15 $77.10 $3.95 $4.05 $4.15 $4.05 $3.90 $4.00 $76.50 r % 2.0% $72.00 $74.90 $79.05 $82.25 $66.10 $67.15 $57.25 $12.55 $32.90 $53.50 $82.25 $4.25 $4.30 $4.45 $4.35 $4.10 $4.25 $78.05 e % 2.0% $74.00 $78.55 $82.55 $87.60 $71.15 $72.20 $62.15 $13.35 $35.00 $56.95 $87.60 $4.55 $4.50 $4.80 $4.65 $4.25 $4.50 $79.60 c % 2.0% $76.00 $82.25 $86.05 $93.15 $76.35 $77.45 $67.15 $14.05 $37.25 $60.55 $93.15 $4.80 $4.65 $5.05 $4.95 $4.40 $4.75 $81.20 a % 2.0% $78.00 $86.10 $88.35 $97.55 $80.45 $81.55 $71.05 $15.00 $39.05 $63.45 $97.55 $5.15 $4.85 $5.35 $5.25 $4.55 $5.00 $82.80 s % 2.0% $80.00 $90.10 $90.70 $ $84.70 $85.80 $75.10 $15.75 $40.90 $66.40 $ $5.40 $5.00 $5.65 $5.50 $4.70 $5.30 $84.45 t % 2.0% $80.00 $91.90 $90.70 $ $86.40 $87.55 $76.60 $16.45 $41.70 $67.70 $ $5.65 $5.10 $5.85 $5.75 $4.80 $5.50 $ % 2.0% $80.00 $93.75 $90.70 $ $88.10 $89.30 $78.15 $17.40 $42.55 $69.05 $ $6.00 $5.30 $6.20 $6.10 $4.95 $5.80 $ % 2.0% $80.00 $95.60 $90.70 $ $89.85 $91.05 $79.70 $17.95 $43.40 $70.45 $ $6.15 $5.35 $6.40 $6.25 $5.00 $6.00 $ % 2.0% $80.00 $97.50 $90.70 $ $91.65 $92.90 $81.30 $18.40 $44.25 $71.85 $ $6.35 $5.40 $6.60 $6.45 $5.05 $6.15 $ % 2.0% $80.00 $99.45 $90.70 $ $93.50 $94.75 $82.95 $19.15 $45.15 $73.30 $ $6.60 $5.50 $6.85 $6.70 $5.15 $6.40 $ % 2.0% $80.00 $ $90.70 $ $95.35 $96.65 $84.60 $20.05 $46.05 $74.75 $ $6.90 $5.65 $7.15 $7.05 $5.25 $6.65 $ % 2.0% $80.00 $ $90.70 $ $97.30 $98.55 $86.30 $20.45 $46.95 $76.25 $ $7.05 $5.65 $7.30 $7.20 $5.25 $6.80 $ % 2.0% $80.00 $ $90.70 $ $99.20 $ $88.00 $20.85 $47.90 $77.80 $ $7.20 $5.65 $7.45 $7.30 $5.25 $6.95 $ % 2.0% $80.00 $ $90.70 $ $ $ $89.75 $21.25 $48.85 $79.35 $ $7.35 $5.65 $7.60 $7.45 $5.25 $7.05 $ % 2.0% $80.00 $ $90.70 $ $ $ $91.55 $21.70 $49.85 $80.95 $ $7.50 $5.65 $7.75 $7.60 $5.25 $7.20 $ % 2.0% $80.00 $ $90.70 $ $ $ $93.40 $22.10 $50.85 $82.55 $ $7.65 $5.65 $7.90 $7.75 $5.25 $7.35 $ % 2.0% $80.00 $ $90.70 $ $ $ $95.25 $22.55 $51.85 $84.20 $ $7.80 $5.65 $8.05 $7.95 $5.25 $7.50 $ % 2.0% $80.00 $ $90.70 $ $ $ $97.15 $23.00 $52.90 $85.90 $ $7.95 $5.65 $8.25 $8.10 $5.25 $7.65 $ % 2.0% % 2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 2.0% Notes: - All prices are in Canadian dollars except WTI and NYMEX gas which are in U.S. dollars - Edmonton city gate prices based on historical light oil par prices posted by the government of Alberta and Energy differential futures (40 Deg. API < 0.5% Sulphur) - Natural Gas Liquid prices are forecasted at Edmonton therefore an additional transportation cost must be included to plant gate sales point - 1 Mcf is equivalent to 1 mmbtu - Real prices listed in 2014 dollars with no escalation considered - Alberta gas prices, except AECO, include an average cost of service to the plant gate Disclaimer - No representation or warranty of any kind (whether expressed or implied) is given by Deloitte LLP as to the accuracy, completeness, currency or fitness for any purpose of this document. As such, this document does not constitute the giving of investment advice, nor a part of any advice on investment decisions. Accordingly, regardless of the form of action, whether in contract, tort or otherwise, and to the extent permitted by applicable law, Deloitte LLP accepts no liability of any kind and disclaims all responsibility for the consequences of any person acting or refraining from acting in reliance on this this price forecast in whole or in part. This price forecast is not for dissemination in the United States or for distribution to United States wire services.
23 21 Crude Oil Pricing Deloitte Resource Evaluation & Advisory Canadian Domestic Forecast - Additional Crude Reference Prices Base Case Forecast Effective December Natural Gas Synbit (AWB) Ontario WTI at WTI at Lt. Sour MSO Bow River WCS Heavy Oil 70% Bitumen Delivered to Dawn Cushing Cushing Edmonton Edmonton 35 Deg. API 31 Deg. API 25 Deg. API 20.5 Deg. API 12 Deg. API 30% Cond. Sarnia Reference Price Cost CAD to USD Oklahoma Oklahoma City Gate City Gate Cromer, SK Hardisty Hardisty Hardisty Hardisty 21 Deg. API MSW Point Inflation Inflation Exchange US$/bbl US$/bbl C$/bbl C$/bbl C$/bbl C$/bbl C$/bbl C$/bbl C$/bbl C$/bbl C$/bbl C$/mcf Rate Rate Rate Real Current Real Current Current Current Current Current Current Current Current Current H % 1.8% $49.68 $41.40 $63.50 $52.91 $48.94 $45.56 $37.98 $36.14 $30.40 $37.92 $54.12 $8.05 i % 2.2% $66.64 $56.56 $81.63 $69.29 $62.31 $56.26 $45.62 $44.60 $33.70 $46.01 $71.30 $10.67 s % 2.0% $76.04 $66.02 $84.40 $73.28 $66.08 $61.45 $51.90 $51.22 $39.53 $51.12 $75.37 $7.76 t % 2.1% $81.62 $72.32 $86.96 $77.05 $70.06 $64.87 $53.87 $52.90 $39.76 $52.33 $78.48 $7.43 o % 2.4% $ $99.57 $ $ $95.28 $92.40 $83.90 $82.95 $73.08 $84.10 $ $9.88 r % 0.3% $66.47 $61.65 $71.27 $66.10 $64.04 $63.76 $59.80 $58.66 $54.40 $58.94 $69.29 $4.80 i % 1.8% $85.34 $79.40 $83.62 $77.80 $76.40 $72.32 $68.18 $67.22 $60.62 $67.65 $81.48 $4.79 c % 2.9% $ $94.88 $ $95.54 $92.13 $83.39 $78.42 $77.12 $69.60 $80.30 $99.26 $4.34 a % 1.5% $96.47 $94.11 $88.74 $86.57 $84.27 $77.53 $74.41 $73.10 $64.07 $74.76 $90.36 $3.11 l % 0.9% $98.84 $97.91 $94.25 $93.36 $91.76 $82.65 $76.29 $74.97 $65.49 $76.91 $97.33 $ Mths H 2.0% 2.0% $93.90 $93.90 $95.95 $95.95 $93.98 $89.42 $81.99 $81.53 $73.73 $82.16 $98.79 $ Mths F 0.0% 0.0% $67.00 $67.00 $70.95 $70.95 $68.95 $62.45 $56.45 $55.45 $46.95 $54.15 $74.45 $ Avg. N/A N/A $93.90 $93.90 $95.95 $95.95 $93.98 $89.42 $81.99 $81.53 $73.73 $82.16 $98.79 $5.77 F % 0.0% $67.00 $67.00 $70.95 $70.95 $68.95 $62.45 $56.45 $55.45 $46.95 $54.15 $74.45 $4.85 o % 2.0% $70.00 $71.40 $75.60 $77.10 $75.05 $68.45 $62.30 $61.30 $52.65 $60.00 $80.70 $5.15 r % 2.0% $72.00 $74.90 $79.05 $82.25 $80.15 $73.40 $67.15 $66.10 $57.25 $64.75 $85.90 $5.50 e % 2.0% $74.00 $78.55 $82.55 $87.60 $85.50 $78.60 $72.20 $71.15 $62.15 $69.75 $91.30 $5.85 c % 2.0% $76.00 $82.25 $86.05 $93.15 $91.00 $83.95 $77.45 $76.35 $67.15 $74.95 $96.95 $6.10 a % 2.0% $78.00 $86.10 $88.35 $97.55 $95.35 $88.15 $81.55 $80.45 $71.05 $79.00 $ $6.45 s % 2.0% $80.00 $90.10 $90.70 $ $99.90 $92.55 $85.80 $84.70 $75.10 $83.20 $ $6.75 t % 2.0% $80.00 $91.90 $90.70 $ $ $94.40 $87.55 $86.40 $76.60 $84.90 $ $ % 2.0% $80.00 $93.75 $90.70 $ $ $96.30 $89.30 $88.10 $78.15 $86.60 $ $ % 2.0% $80.00 $95.60 $90.70 $ $ $98.25 $91.05 $89.85 $79.70 $88.30 $ $ % 2.0% $80.00 $97.50 $90.70 $ $ $ $92.90 $91.65 $81.30 $90.10 $ $ % 2.0% $80.00 $99.45 $90.70 $ $ $ $94.75 $93.50 $82.95 $91.90 $ $ % 2.0% $80.00 $ $90.70 $ $ $ $96.65 $95.35 $84.60 $93.70 $ $ % 2.0% $80.00 $ $90.70 $ $ $ $98.55 $97.30 $86.30 $95.60 $ $ % 2.0% $80.00 $ $90.70 $ $ $ $ $99.20 $88.00 $97.50 $ $ % 2.0% $80.00 $ $90.70 $ $ $ $ $ $89.75 $99.45 $ $ % 2.0% $80.00 $ $90.70 $ $ $ $ $ $91.55 $ $ $ % 2.0% $80.00 $ $90.70 $ $ $ $ $ $93.40 $ $ $ % 2.0% $80.00 $ $90.70 $ $ $ $ $ $95.25 $ $ $ % 2.0% $80.00 $ $90.70 $ $ $ $ $ $97.15 $ $ $ % 2.0% % 2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% Notes: - All prices are in Canadian dollars except WTI and NYMEX gas which are in U.S. dollars - Edmonton city gate prices based on historical light oil par prices posted by the government of Alberta and Energy differential futures (40 Deg. API < 0.5% Sulphur) - 1 Mcf is equivalent to 1 mmbtu - Real prices listed in 2014 dollars with no escalation considered Sarnia price is Edmonton Sweet (MSW) delivered to Sarnia, Ontario Synbit is a combined bitumin (70%) and Condensate (30%) stream equivelent to the Acces Western Blend (AWB). Disclaimer - No representation or warranty of any kind (whether expressed or implied) is given by Deloitte LLP as to the accuracy, completeness, currency or fitness for any purpose of this document. As such, this document does not constitute the giving of investment advice, nor a part of any advice on investment decisions. Accordingly, regardless of the form of action, whether in contract, tort or otherwise, and to the extent permitted by applicable law, Deloitte LLP accepts no liability of any kind and disclaims all responsibility for the consequences of any person acting or refraining from acting in reliance on this this price forecast in whole or in part. This price forecast is not for dissemination in the United States or for distribution to United States wire services.
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