Momentum in International Real Estate Investment Trusts

Transcription

1 Momentum in International Real Estate Investment Trusts Fred Huibers Februari 2015

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3 Momentum in International Real Estate Investment Trusts Fred Huibers ASRE research papers ISSN ASRE Research Center Amsterdam School of Real Estate Postbus AC Amsterdam T F research@asre.nl

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5 Inhoudsopgave Abstract 2 1 Introduction Momentum Risk based Explanation In Behavioural explanation Real Estate momentum In Momentum in indirect Real Estate (REITs) Momentum in direct Real Estate Aim of this study 4 2 Data and Methodology 5 3 Results Combining momentum and value strategies 10 4 Conclusion 14 References 15 Amsterdam School of Real Estate 1

6 Abstract Momentum is prevalent among REITs. The return from implementing the six month formation and holding momentum strategy in the period is 5.11% per annum. This return is not a commensurate reward for risk as the standard deviation of returns generated by the high momentum portfolio is not statistically different from the standard deviation of returns generated by the low momentum portfolio. Moreover, REITs in the high momentum portfolio, on average, have a lower leverage ratio and dividend yield than the REITs in the low momentum portfolio which also indicates that these REITs are unlikely to be riskier. In line with the behavioural explanation for momentum, we confirm that the momentum returns are more prevalent among larger, more liquid REITs. Combining the momentum strategy with the generally accepted value strategy enhances returns substantially and thus the current research provides potentially useful practical implications for the investment profession. Amsterdam School of Real Estate 2

7 1 Introduction 1.1 Momentum The foundation for the rich economic literature pertaining to momentum was laid by the publication of the seminal 1993 Journal of Finance article Returns to Buying Winners and Selling Losers: Implications for Stock Market Efficiency Journal of Finance in Jegadeesh and Titman (1993) document that buying stocks that have performed well in the recent past and short selling stocks that have performed poorly generates statistically significantly positive investment returns over holding periods from 3 to 12 months. Over time, numerous publications confirming the positive results of the momentum strategy have been published such as Cooper et al. (2004), Hong and Stein (1999), and Johnson (2002). 1.2 Risk based Explanation Two competing explanations for the existence of momentum are offered. The risk-based school of thought posits that the outperformance of the high momentum stocks is a function of risk. The above average performance of these stocks is the reward that the investor reaps for running above average risk. Conversely, the below average return of the low momentum portfolio is the result of the lower than average risk of these stocks. After correcting for the inherent riskiness of the stocks in the high and in the low momentum portfolios, the positive return of the momentum strategy disappears. The most visible proponents of this school of thought are Fama and French (1992, 1993). 1.3 In Behavioural explanation Alternatively, the behavioural finance school of thought hypothesizes that momentum is the result of the fact that information, especially non-public information, is not impounded immediately into prices but is processed with some delay. According to Hong and Stein (1999) two different type of traders operate in the equity markets: information traders (who emphasize fundamental analysis in making investment decisions) and momentum traders (who emphasize technical analysis in making investment decisions). In the literature, the first group is frequently referred to as news-watchers and the second group is frequently referred to as price traders. Information traders believe that they have a comparative advantage at processing stock price relevant information while this is not the case for price traders. While information is being processed by information traders, price traders tend to follow the existing trend in stock prices and reinforce it by buying high momentum stocks and selling low momentum stocks. Price traders will specialize in stocks which offer above average liquidity in order to effectively execute short-term trading. Capozza and Israelsen (2007) observe that: Price traders have a strong preference for larger REITs. Amsterdam School of Real Estate 3

8 1.4 Real Estate momentum Investors that wish to invest in real estate with the advantages of the liquidity that the capital markets provide, commonly chose to Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) as the preferred vehicle. Therefore, academic studies of momentum in real estate mostly use a sample of REITs to measure the returns that the momentum strategy generates. REITs are of special interest because of the widely recognized fact that real estate valuations tend to exhibit smoothing and lagging effects. Consequently, REITs provide a potentially productive area to test the empirically testable implications of the behavioural finance explanation for momentum in stock prices (Feng et al., 2014; Price et al., 2012; Morland, 2007; Chui et al., 2003a). 1.5 In Momentum in indirect Real Estate (REITs) Chui et al. (2003a), Morland (2007), Brounen (2009), Addea and Lee (2009), Chen et al. (2013), Hung and Glascock (2010), Goebel et al. (2013), Parhizgari and Pavlova (2010), Chui et al. (2003b), Hung and Glascock (2008), Marcato and Key (2005), Zhang and Deng (2010) find evidence of statistically significant momentum returns in US REITs. Most studies use a formation period of six month and a holding period of six months and find that this momentum strategy generates a statistically and economically significant return of 5 to 6%. 1.6 Momentum in direct Real Estate Beracha and Skiba (2011) apply the Jegadeesh and Titman (1993) momentum strategy to the returns of U.S. residential real estate from over 380 metropolitan areas. They find that, on average, the zero cost strategy of buying past winning housing markets and short selling past losing markets generates a return of 8.92% annually. They conclude that, for the period these momentum returns are both statistically and economically significant. 1.7 Aim of this study The aim of this study is to measure and explain momentum for international REITs. We contribute to the existing literature by broadening the scope beyond US REITs and by providing empirical evidence pertaining to the cause of the momentum. In addition, we discuss the practical implications in terms of the implementation of a viable investment strategy based on the research findings. We expect that momentum does exist for international REITs similar to US REITs, although our single currency viewpoint (EUR) and the corresponding currency risk could influence the result. Amsterdam School of Real Estate 4

9 2 Data and Methodology The empirical research is executed in three phases. First, the return from implementing the momentum strategy with REIT stocks is measured in order to establish whether it is both statistically and economically significant. Second, we measure if the return from implementing the momentum strategy is the commensurate reward for risk. Third, we examine whether the return from implementing the momentum strategy is explained by behavioural finance. Finally, we measure the return and risk that professional investors would obtain from the incorporation of momentum in a sustainable long-term investment strategy by combining the momentum trading strategy with the value strategy. In line with Cici et al. (2011) and Morland (2007) REITs are independently ranked in descending order each month based on cumulative past-six-month total returns; REITs above the median are categorized as high momentum and those below as low momentum. The total return of the equally weighted buy and hold portfolio is measured over the next six months. From the Thomson Reuters Datastream database (hereafter Datastream ), we collect the following data for all REITs (Exhibit 1) that were listed on the stock market of 22 developed countries in the period January 2003 January : the end of month closing share price, the total return index, the book to market ratio, dividend yield, debt-to-assets, market capitalization and the trading volume (in EUR unhedged 2 ). If REITs were no longer listed due to bankruptcy, delisting or as a result of take-over (classified as dead in Datastream), we included the data pertaining to these REITs for the period that these were actively traded in order to mitigate look-ahead or survivorship bias (Banz and Breen, 1986). 1 All companies classified by Datastream as REITs are included; some of these may not have the commensurate fiscal status. 2 Unhedged returns are used in order to measure the returns of the momentum strategy only. Investors have the choice to hedge. Amsterdam School of Real Estate 5

10 Exhibit 1 Developed stock markets and number of REITS initially included in sample. Country Nr of REITs Australia 237 Belgium 20 Canada 112 Denmark 2 France 51 Germany 8 Greece 3 Hong Kong 11 Ireland 2 Israel 2 Italy 3 Japan 52 Luxembourg 2 Netherlands 8 New Zealand 19 Portugal 1 Singapore 46 Spain 2 Sweden 2 Switzerland 1 United Kingdom 35 United States 559 Total 1,178 REITs listed on Anglo-Saxon markets are prevalent in the sample (82% of total number) with the proportion of US and Australian REITs, respectively, 48% and 20%. For measuring the results of the value strategy, we use the book to market ratio as of 30 June of each year since by then most companies will have published their latest annual reports. This is in line with Fama and French (1992). We exclude companies for which Datastream does not provide sufficient data. To ensure liquidity we require a minimum average daily trade volume in the month June of EUR 0.5 million. Following Ooi et al. (2007) we only include REITs with a positive book to market (B/M) multiple, since companies with a negative B/M multiple must have negative book value of Equity and therefore tend to be distressed companies. Exhibit 2 shows the number of REITs for each individual year that meet these criteria. Amsterdam School of Real Estate 6

11 Number of REITs Momentum in International Real Estate Investment Trusts Exhibit 2 Total number of REITs with minimum daily trade volume (.5m EUR) and positive B/M multiple Year Note: For all active REITs as at 30 June of each year the average daily trade volume in June has been calculated. When the average daily trading volume exceeds EUR 0.5 million per day and B/M multiples are positive REITs are included in the sample. This exhibit shows the number of REITs meeting those criteria. All data on trade volumes are obtained from Thomson Reuters Datastream. The number of REITs listed on developed stock markets meeting our criteria has risen substantially from about 300 in 2003 to over 400 in 2013 thereby allowing institutional investors a growing universe from which they can build securitized real estate exposure. In line with Ooi et al. (2007) and Lakonishok, Shleifer and Vishny (1994) we rank these stocks in descending order according to the B/M ratio and assign an equal number of stocks to five groups or quintiles each year. For example, if the universe consists of 100 REITs, we assign the twenty companies with the highest B/M ratio to the value quintile (Q1) and those with the lowest rank in terms of B/M to the growth quintile (Q5). These value (growth) companies are equally weighted to form the value (growth) portfolio. Amsterdam School of Real Estate 7

12 3 Results Most momentum studies use a formation period of six months and a holding period of six months and find a statistically and economically significant return of 5 to 6% for US REITs. We find a comparable return of 5.11% (Exhibit 3). The t-statistic of 4.47 indicates that this return is significantly higher than zero. The return of the momentum strategy for alternative holding periods is somewhat lower but still significant. Exhibit 3 Momentum of international REITs % ( ) Holding Period (months) High Momentum Low Momentum High-Low Momentum tstat The REITs are ranked on their 6 month momentum at 30 June of each year and classified into the upper half (High) or lower half (Low). For each holding period of either 1, 3, 6 or 12 months after 30 June of each year, the total return of the equally weighted portfolio is then calculated. The t-statistic has been computed using the means of each year. All data are obtained from Thomson Reuters Datastream. While the returns of the high momentum portfolios are significantly higher than that of the low momentum portfolios, this is not the case for the difference in standard deviation of the returns. With the exception of the 3 month holing period, the high momentum portfolio have a higher standard deviation but the all these differences are not significant at conventional confidence levels (Exhibit 4). Exhibit 4 Standard Deviation of Momentum of international REITs % ( ) Holding Period (months) High Momentum Low Momentum High-Low Momentum tstat Amsterdam School of Real Estate 8

13 The REITs are ranked on their 6 month momentum as at 30 June of each year and classified into the upper half (High) or lower half (Low). For each holding period of either 1, 3, 6 or 12 months after 30 June of each year, the total return of the equally weighted portfolio is then calculated. The t-statistic has been computed using the means of each year. All data are obtained from Thomson Reuters Datastream. The analysis of the characteristics of the REITs within the high momentum portfolio on the one hand and of those in the low momentum portfolio on the other, is congruent with this conclusion. On average, the REITs in the high momentum portfolio are significantly less levered than the REITs in the low momentum portfolio (Exhibit 5). For a large diversified sample of high (low) momentum REITs, the lower (higher) leverage ratio results in lower (higher) volatility of returns and, consequently, in a lower (higher) risk profile while the returns are higher (lower). This is not consistent with the risk-based explanation for momentum. The same is the case when the average dividend yield of the high momentum portfolio is compared to that of the low momentum portfolio. Given that a REIT is obliged to pay out almost all of the rental income in order to maintain its privileged tax status, it follows that the dividend yield of the REIT is an indication of the yield of the underlying real estate assets. Higher yielding assets are usually riskier than comparable lower yielding assets. The fact that the high momentum REITs have a significantly lower dividend yield than the low momentum REITs is not consistent with the risk-based explanation for momentum (Exhibit 5). According to the behavioural finance explanation for momentum, price traders specialize in chasing trends in prices of the more tradable, larger stocks since these stocks offer a better opportunity for making short term trading profits than less liquid stocks. Consistent with Chui et al. (2003b), Zhang and Deng (2010) and Lee and Swaminathan (2000), we find that high momentum REITs are more liquid than low momentum REITs although the difference is not statistically significant. However, consistent with Capozza and Israelsen (2007), we find that high momentum REITs are significantly larger in terms of market capitalization than low momentum REITs. Exhibit 5 Portfolio average values of dividend yield, debt-to-assets, market capitalization and trading volume of high and low momentum international REITs ( ) Portfolio average Dividend yield (%) Debt-to- Assets (%) Market Capitalization (EUR million) Trading Volume (EUR thousand) High Momentum Low Momentum High-Low Momentum -1.81*** -2.82*** 178*** 248 *** significant at the 1% confidence level Amsterdam School of Real Estate 9

14 3.1 Combining momentum and value strategies While results indicate that the momentum strategy generates significant returns, it is a shortterm trading strategy that does not provide the basis of a viable portfolio investment strategy for institutional investors. However, combining the short-term momentum strategy with the generally accepted longer term value strategy generates superior returns (Addea and Lee, 2009; Chui et al. 2003b). The value strategy consist of buying stocks with a high book value compared to the market value. The value premium in REITs exists when, in the longer run, REITs with a discount to NAV (Value REITs) outperform REITs with a premium to NAV (Growth REITs). Clayton and MacKinnon (2002), Gentry, Jones, and Mayer (2004), Lee, Lee, and Chiang (2005), Chiang, Lee and Wisen (2004), Anderson et al. (2005), Chiang, Lee, and Wisen (2005), Chiang Kozhevnikov, Lee and Wisen (2006) and Ooi, Webb, and Zhou (2007) find evidence of a statistically significant value premium in US REITs. Exhibit 6 Average annual returns of the value strategy and the combined momentum and value strategy international REITs % ( ) Value Strategy Combined Strategy Value Growth Value-Growth tstat In the value strategy, REITs are ranked on their Book to Market (B/M) ratio as at 30 June each year. The ratio represents the Book Value of Equity in the last accounting year before 30 June divided by the market value as at 30 June. For each B/M quintile equally weighted total returns in EUR are calculated for a one- year holding period as well as the mean difference between Q1 and Q5. In the combined strategy, the REITs in the value (Q1) quintile are ranked on their 6 month momentum as at 30 June of each year and classified into the upper half (High) or lower half (Low). Only the REITs in the upper half are included in the value portfolio. For the growth portfolio only the REITs in the lower half are included. For each holding period of 12 months after 30 June of each year, the total return of the equally weighted portfolio is then calculated. The t-statistic has been computed using the means of each year. All data are obtained from Thomson Reuters Datastream. Combining the momentum strategy with the value strategy not only enhances returns but also makes these statistically significant for REITs included in the sample (Exhibit 6). The average return increases from 4.37% to 8.63% per annum while the riskiness, in terms of standard deviation of annual returns, decreases. This is achieved by accentuating the return on both Amsterdam School of Real Estate 10

15 the value quintile portfolio and the growth quintile portfolio. The value quintile portfolio return increases from an average annual return of 18.27% (value strategy) to 20.06% (combined strategy). Conversely, the growth quintile portfolio return decreases from an average annual return of 13.90% (value strategy) to 11.43% (combined strategy). These results are in line with evidence found by Chui et al. (2003b) and Addea (2009). Taking a longitudinal approach, the consistency of the returns also increase by combining the value strategy with the momentum strategy (Exhibit 7). Amsterdam School of Real Estate 11

16 Exhibit 7 The consistency of average annual returns of the value strategy and the combined momentum and value strategy for international REITs % ( ) Panel A Value strategy formation month value growth value-growth % 25.42% 9.92% % 26.23% 4.39% % 20.53% -5.09% % 27.96% 3.42% % % % % % % % 42.64% 34.31% % 24.86% 10.02% % 3.31% -7.73% % 25.37% 21.00% average 4.37% sd 15.28% Panel B Combined Strategy formation month value growth value-growth % 20.00% 24.17% % 23.68% 15.96% % 17.85% -3.10% % 25.49% 8.59% % % -2.40% % % 1.25% % 46.69% 10.48% % 26.88% 4.46% % 2.36% -6.01% % 16.92% 32.88% average 8.63% sd 12.62% Amsterdam School of Real Estate 12

17 The formation month 6 refers to June 2003, 18 to June 2004, and so on. The results from the combined strategy are not only superior but also more consistent. While the combined strategy yields negative returns in three out of ten years (Panel B), the value strategy alone generates negative results in four out of ten years. Moreover, the predictability of the performance is greater in the case of the combined strategy as indicated by the lower standard deviation of returns of 12.62% versus 15.28% for the value strategy alone. The returns of the combined strategy are superior to that of a passive strategy. The average annual return of the combined strategy of 20.06% per annum compares favourably with that of 14.31% per annum for the passive strategy while the standard deviation of return (not reported) are comparable (Exhibit 8). Exhibit 8 The average annual returns of the combined momentum and value strategy versus the passive strategy for international REITs % ( ) formation month index combined outperformance annual return annual return annual return % 44.17% 17.86% % 39.64% 13.99% % 14.75% -0.90% % 34.08% 3.90% % % -0.60% % % -2.41% % 57.17% 7.15% % 31.33% 5.49% % -3.65% -3.25% % 49.81% 16.27% average 14.31% 20.06% 5.75% The average annual outperformance of the combined strategy is 5.75% while the worst annual relative performance of -3.25% is modest compared to maximum outperformance of 17.86%. In the majority of the years, combining the value and the momentum strategy provides the investor with substantial outperformance. Amsterdam School of Real Estate 13

18 4 Conclusion Momentum is prevalent among REITs. The return from implementing the six month formation and holding momentum strategy in the period is 5.11% per annum. This return is not a commensurate reward for risk as the standard deviation of returns generated by the high momentum portfolio is not statistically different from the standard deviation of returns generated by the low momentum portfolio. Moreover, REITs in the high momentum portfolio, on average, have a lower leverage ratio and dividend yield than the REITs in the low momentum portfolio which also indicates that these REITs are unlikely to be riskier. In line with the behavioural explanation for momentum, we confirm that the momentum returns are more prevalent among larger, more liquid REITs. Combining the momentum strategy with the generally accepted value strategy enhances returns substantially and thus the current research provides potentially useful practical implications for the investment profession. Amsterdam School of Real Estate 14

19 References Addae, K. and P. Lee, Investing in REITS: Contrarian versus Momentum, 2009, Paper presented at PRRES 2009 Conference, Sydney, Australia January Anderson, R., J. Clayton, G. MacKinnon and R. Sharma, REIT Returns and Pricing: The Small Cap Value Stock Factor, Journal of Property Research 2005, 22:4, Banz, R. and W. Breen, Sample dependent results using accounting and market data: Some evidence, Journal of Finance, 1986, 41, Beracha, E., H. Skiba, Momentum in Residential Real Estate, Journal of Real Estate and Finance and Economics, 2011, 43:, Brounen, D., Derwall, J., Huij, J. and W. Marquering, REIT Momentum and the Performance of Real Estate Mutual Funds, Financial Analysts Journal, 2009, 65:5, Brown, G.R. and Matysiak, G.A., Real Estate Investment. A Capital Market Approach, 2000, Harlow: Pearson Education. Capozza, D.R. and Israelsen, R., Predictability in Equilibrium: The Price Dynamics of Real Estate Investment Trusts, Real Estate Economics, 2007, 35:4, Capozza, D.R., P. Hendershott and C. Mack, An Anatomy of Price Dynamics in Illiquid Markets, Analysis and Evidence from Local Housing Markets, Real Estate Economics, 2004, 32, Case, K.E. and Shiller, R.J., The Efficiency of the Market for Single-Family Homes. The American Economic Review, 1989, 79:1, Case, K.E. and Shiller, R.J., Forecasting Prices and Excess Returns in the Housing Market, AREUEA, 1990, 18, Chen, H., Chua, A., and J. Changha, Analyst Forecasting Errors in REITs, International Real Estate Review, 2013, 16:1, Chiang, K., M. Lee and C. Wisen, On the Time-Series Properties of Real Estate Investment Trust Betas, Real Estate Economics, 2005, 33:2, Chiang, K., K. Kozhevnikov, M. Lee and C. Wisen, REIT Mimicking Portfolio Analysis, International Real Estate Review, 2006, 9:1, Chiang, K., M. Lee and C. Wisen, Another Look at the asymmetric REIT beta puzzle, Journal of Real Estate Research, 2004, 26:1, Chui, A., Titman, S. and K. Wei, Intra-industry momentum: the case of REITs, Journal of Financial Markets 6, 2003a, Amsterdam School of Real Estate 15

20 Chui, A., Titman, S. and K. Wei, The Cross Section of Expected REIT Returns, Real Estate Economics, 2003b, 31:3, Cici, G., Corgel, J. and S. Gibso, Can Fund Managers Select Outperforming REITs? Examining Fund Holdings and Trades, Real Estate Economics, 2011, 39:3, Clayton J. and G. MacKinnon, The relative importance of stock, bond and real estate factors in explaining REIT returns, 2003, Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics 27, Clayton, J., Geltner, D. and S.Hamilton, Real Estate Economics, 2001, 29:3, Clayton, J. and G. MacKinnon, Departures from NAV in REIT Pricing-the private real estate Cycle, the Value of Liquidity and Investor Sentiment, Working paper, Cooper, M., Gutierrez J. and A. Hameed, Market states and momentum, 2004, Journal of Finance, 59:3, Cutler, D., J. Poterba, and L. Summers, Speculative Dynamics, Review of Economic Studies,1991, 58, Daniel, K. and S. Titman, Market Efficiency in an Irrational World, Financial Analysts Journal, 1999, November/December: Fama, E. and K. French, The cross-section of expected stock returns, Journal of Finance, 1992, 47, Fama, E. and K. French, Common risk factors in stock and bond returns, Journal of Financial Economics, 1993, 33, Fama, E. and K. French, Value versus growth: International evidence, Journal of Finance, 1998, 53:6, Fama, E. and K. French, Value premium and the CAPM, Journal of Finance, 2006, 61:5, Feng Z., McKay Price, S. and C. Sirmans, The Relation between Momentum and Drift: Industry-Level Evidence from Equity Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs), Journal of Real Estate Research, 2014, Gentry, W., C. Jones, and C. Mayer, Do stock prices really reflect fundamental values: the case of REITs? NBER working paper from Goebel, P., Harrison, D, Mercer, J. and R. Whitby, REIT Momentum and Characteristic- Related REIT Returns, Journal of Real Estate and Finance and Economics, 2013, 47,

21 Hong, H. and J. Stein, A unified theory of underreaction, momentum trading, and overreaction in asset markets, Journal of Finance, 1999, 54:6, Hung, S. and J. Glascock, Volatilities and Momentum Returns in Real Estate Investment Trusts, Journal of Real Estate and Finance and Economics, 2010, 41, Hung, S. and J. Glascock, Momentum Profitability and Market Trend: Evidence from REITs, Journal of Real Estate and Finance and Economics, 2008, 37, Jegadeesh, N. and S. Titman, Returns to Buying Winners and Selling Losers: Implications for Stock Market Efficiency, Journal of Finance, 1993, 48:1, Johnson, T., Rational momentum effects, Journal of Finance, 2002, 57:2, Kouwenberg, R. and R. Zwinkels, Forecasting the US housing market, International Journal of Forecasting 30, 2014, Lee, M., M. Lee and K. Chiang, Real Estate Risk Exposure of Equity Real Estate Investment Trusts, Paper presented at the PRRES Conference, Lee, C. and B. Swaminathan, Price Momentum and Trading Volume, Journal of Finance, 2000, 55, Lakonishok, J., A. Shleifer, and R. Vishny, Contrarian Investment, Extrapolation and Risk, Journal of Finance, 1994, 49:5, Marcato, G. and T. Key, Direct Investment in Real Estate, The Journal of Portfolio Management, 2005, special issue. Morland, S., Evidence of Momentum displayed by Real Estate Investment Trusts, 2007, senior thesis. Ooi, J., J. Webb and D. Zhou, Extrapolation Theory and the Pricing of REIT Stocks, Journal of Real Estate Research, 2007, 29:1, Parhizgari, A. and I. Pavlova, The boom and the lean times in global REITs: the period, Journal of European Real Estate Research, 2010, 3: 2, 2010, Price S., Gatzlaff D., and C. Sirmans, Information Uncertainty and the Post-Earnings- Announcement Drift Anomaly: Insights from REITs, 2012, 44, Zhang, M. and Y. Deng, Is the Mean Return of Hotel Real Estate Stocks Apt to Overreact to Past Performance?, Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 2010, 40,

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