JMP Mid-Atlantic November 11-12, 2013

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1 JMP Mid-Atlantic November 11-12, 2013 C. Allen Bradley, Jr. Chairman & Chief Executive Officer Michael F. Grasher Chief Financial Officer

2 Forward Looking Statements Statements made in this presentation that are not historical facts, including statements accompanied by words such as will, believe, anticipate, expect, estimate, preliminary, or similar words are forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 regarding AMERISAFE s plans and performance. These statements are based on management s estimates, assumptions, and projections as of the date of this presentation and are not guarantees of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from the results expressed or implied in these statements as the result of risks, uncertainties, and other factors, including the factors set forth in the Company s filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including in Item 1A Risk Factors in AMERISAFE s Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, AMERISAFE cautions you not to place undue reliance on the forward-looking statements contained in this presentation. AMERISAFE does not undertake any obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements to reflect future events, information, or circumstances that arise after the date of this presentation. 2

3 Overview AMERISAFE has a 27-year operating history as a specialty provider of workers compensation insurance for small to mid-sized employers engaged in high hazard industries Premium Distribution by State YTD 9/ Highlights GPW up 13.5% Combined ratio: 93.6% ROAE: 8.9% AMERISAFE actively markets insurance in 30 states and Washington D.C. 3

4 Premium Distribution Historical Premium Distribution of Major Industry Groups (in $ millions) Premium Distribution by Industry as of 12/31/12 Oil and Gas 4.7% Mfg 6.9% Maritime 2.9% 2012 Construction 40.4% Other 16.0% Agriculture 5.3% Logging 2.4% Trucking 21.4% 4

5 Pillars of Distinction AMSF High Hazard Niche Focus Rate more than 3x national average Difficult to serve industry sub-segments Mobile workforcenon-fixed workplace environment Less impacted by soft market cycles Small to Mid- Size Employer Focus Less competition Less price sensitivity More difficult to serve Higher client retention Requires expense management/ operational efficiency High Hazard Underwriting Expertise Industryspecific risk analysis tools Underwriters knowledge of industry practices No MGA s/mgu s Track record of pricing discipline Comprehensive Safety Services Field Safety Professionals (FSPs) maintain in-depth knowledge of high hazard industries Pre-quotation, worksite safety inspection performed on 88% of new accounts FSPs geographically dispersed Intensive Claims Management Field Case Managers (FCMs) located in service areas Low case load 52 claims per FCM Higher severity losses require unique claims handling skills and processes FCMs focus on timely resolution of claims 5

6 Policy Size Small Large Amerisafe Customer Overview Competition is fragmented, and favors multi-state writers of small to mid-sized employers Intensity of Competition Large Competitors (major national firms); Represents 7% of AMSF policies; 32% of premiums Annual premium > $100,000 Mid-sized Competitors (regional and smaller national firms); Represents 25% of AMSF policies; 37% of premiums Annual premium $35,000 to $100,000 Small Competitors (single-state writers, self-insured funds); Represents 68% of AMSF policies; 31% of Premiums Annual premium < $35,000 6

7 Pricing for Profitability Loss costs (LC) estimated loss/$100 payroll approved by state regulator Loss cost multiplier (LCM) multiplier applied to loss costs to cover company expenses above loss costs Effective loss cost multiplier (ELCM) aggregate actual LCM, including the impact of discretionary pricing as permitted Policy Year ELCM Q Q Q

8 Economic Model - ROE Drivers YTD 9/ Loss Ratio 69.8% + Expense Ratio 23.4% + Policyholder Dividend Ratio 0.4% = Combined Ratio 93.6% Underwriting Profit 6.4% x Operating Leverage 0.8 = ROE from Underwriting 5.1% Pre-tax Investment Yield 2.9% x Investment Leverage 2.4 = ROE from Investing 6.9% Imperative to execute on the fundamentals of underwriting, safety and claims At current leverage ratios, a 1 point change in Loss Ratio equates to a 33 BP change in yield to maintain ROE ROE from Other Income (Expense) (0.4)% Pre-tax ROE 11.6% Effective Tax Rate 23.4% ROE 8.9% 8

9 Combined Ratio 100.0% 80.0% 60.0% 99.6% 99.5% 104.2% 92.4% 85.9% 27.3% 24.8% 24.7% 23.8% 21.3% 80.9% 18.8% 86.2% 92.5% 20.8% 20.2% 100.4% 97.5% 93.6% 24.2% 21.1% 23.4% 40.0% 20.0% 71.9% 74.2% 79.5% 66.6% 64.7% 60.9% 65.1% 71.9% 75.6% 74.3% 69.8% 0.0% YTD 9/ Loss Expense Dividend Consistently profitable underwriting 10 yr average combined ratio of 94.0% 7yr average 90.8% 9

10 Investment Portfolio Cash & Cash Equivalents 11.9% Equities & Other 2.3% Assetbacked securities 0.4% Corporates 13.9% Portfolio Allocation (as of 9/30/2013) Short-term investments 8.8% U.S. Treasuries/ agencies 1.2% Commercial MBS 5.3% Municipals 53.0% U.S. Agency MBS 3.2% Carrying value of cash and investments was $978.3 million at September 30, 2013 Investment Municipals U.S. Agency MBS Commercial MBS U.S. Treasuries Value of Fixed-Maturity Securities Corporate Bonds Classified as Held-to-Maturity (as of 9/30/2013) Book Value ($millions) Fair Value ($millions) Unrealized Gain (Loss) $388.7 $407.6 $18.9 $23.8 $25.8 $2.0 $51.4 $55.3 $3.9 $11.5 $12.6 $1.1 $71.1 $72.1 $1.0 ABS $3.5 $ Total $550.0 $577.0 $27.0 As of 9/30/2013, fixed-maturity securities have an average composite credit rating of AA- 10

11 Capital Management Goal: Maintain and Balance Hold prudent capital levels to maintain A.M. Best financial strength rating of A, yet achieve attractive returns for shareholders History of Proactive Capital Management $62M of preferred and debt retirement $22.4M of share repurchases $4.4M of dividends paid Current Utilization of Capital Organic growth Acquisition considerations Renewal rights Balance sheet $25M Share repurchase authorization Continued dividend payments 11

12 Historical Financial Performance 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% -10.0% $ % -9.2% $ % 13.6% $16.20 $11.73 $ % 12.0% 21.2% 21.5% 9.5% 11.8% $ % 5.2% $19.33 $20.88 $ % 7.4% 7.7% -0.3% 2.0% 5.1% YTD 9/ Pre-tax Investing ROE Pre-tax Underwriting ROE BVPS $24.00 $21.00 $18.00 $15.00 $12.00 $9.00 $6.00 $3.00 $- $(3.00) 12

13 Current Workers Compensation Market Conditions 13

14 WC Industry Combined Ratio 130% 120% 118% 122% WC Ind. 117% 117% AMSF 110% 100% 90% 94% 111% 110% 107% 106% 104% 103% 104% 104% 104% 98% 100% 100% 92% 111% 93% 100% 111% 98% 80% 86% 81% 86% 70% 60% P Sources: A.M. Best; Insurance Information Institute. 14

15 Workers Comp Rate Changes, 2008:Q4 2013:Q3 (Percent Change) 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% WC rate changes have been positive for 8 consecutive quarters, longer than any other commercial line 2.6% 4.1% 9.8% 7.5% 7.4% 8.3% 9.0% 8.1% 8.3% 5.8% 0% -2% -4% -6% -8% -5.5% -4.6% -4.0% -3.7% -3.9% -3.7% -3.4% -4.6% -5.4% -1.6% Source: The Council of Insurance Agents and Brokers. 15

16 WC Insurance Rate Changes Source: The Council of Insurance Agents & Brokers. Chart prepared by Barclays Research. 16

17 Residual Market Results 17 *Premium volume shown is net of uncollectible premium for all states and net of premium ceded for the cost of excess reinsurance for AK and NM. Source: 2013 National Council of Compensation Insurance, Inc.

18 Reduction in Combined Ratio Necessary to Offset 1% Decline in Investment Yield to Maintain Constant ROE, by Line* Lower Investment Earnings Place a Greater Burden on Underwriting and Pricing Discipline *Based on 2008 Invested Assets and Earned Premiums; **US domestic reinsurance only Source: A.M. Best; Insurance Information Institute. 18

19 19 Appendix

20 Nasdaq: AMSF Market Statistics: Stock Price $ week range $ $41.96 Shares Outstanding Market Cap 18.5 M $708 M Book Value per Share $21.67 Price-to-Book 1.65 Market data as of November 7, 2013; Financial data as of September 30,

21 Selected Balance Sheet Data (in thousands) Sept Investments, Cash and cash equivalents 978, , ,510 Amounts recoverable from reinsurers 77, ,352 96,212 Premiums receivable, net 172, , ,223 Deferred income taxes 34,672 29,521 30,048 Deferred policy acquisition costs 21,085 18,419 16,578 Total Assets 1,312,559 1,220,946 1,143,973 Reserves for loss and loss adjustment expenses 609, , ,214 Unearned premiums 164, , ,699 Insurance-related assessments 28,887 22,244 19,071 Subordinated debt securities ,780 Shareholders equity 400, , ,437 Metrics Book Value Per Share $21.67 $20.88 $19.25 Debt to Capital % 21

22 Income Statement (in thousands) YTD Sept Revenues: Gross premiums written $281,075 $328,823 $272,101 Ceded premiums written (13,576) (16,305) (13,881) Net premiums written $267,499 $312,518 $258,220 Net premiums earned $243,288 $290,689 $251,015 Net investment income 20,266 27,018 26,340 Net realized gains (losses) on investments (1,921) 2,979 2,228 Fee and other income ,080 Total revenues 174, , ,663 Expenses: Loss and loss adjustment expenses incurred 169, , ,706 Underwriting and other operating costs 57,012 61,433 60,825 Interest expense 566 1,311 Policyholder dividends 980 2,203 1,464 Total expenses 227, , ,306 Income before taxes 34,174 37,143 27,357 Income tax expense 7,980 7,790 3,176 Net income $26,194 $29,353 $24,181 22

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