State Auto Financial Corporation Investor Presentation

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1 State Auto Financial Corporation Investor Presentation

2 Participants Robert P. Restrepo Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer Steven E. English Vice President, Chief Financial Officer Terrence L. Bowshier Vice President, Director of Investor Relations 2

3 Forward-Looking Statements This presentation may contain forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of These forwardlooking statements are based on the current assumptions, expectations and projections of State Auto Financial Corporation s (the Company ) management about future events. Although we believe that these statements are based on reasonable assumptions, the Company can give no assurance that they will prove to be correct. Numerous factors, including those related to market conditions and those detailed in the confidential offering memorandum and from time-to-time in the Company s filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, may cause actual results of the Company to differ materially from those anticipated in these forward-looking statements. Many of the factors that will determine the Company s future results are beyond the control to predict. These forward-looking statements are subject to these risks and uncertainties and, therefore, actual results may differ materially. The Company undertakes no obligation to revise or update any forward-looking statements, or to make any other forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. 3

4 Presentation Outline Our Profile Our Strategies Our Performance 4

5 Company Profile Insurance holding company (IPO in 1991) 65% owned by State Automobile Mutual (formed in 1921) Consists of 5 insurance and 3 non-insurance subsidiaries Receives 80% of State Auto Ins Companies pool results Super Regional Property & Casualty ( P&C ) insurance Over $1 billion in annual premiums; 61% Personal and 39% Business 3,200 independent insurance agencies 29 states of operation State Auto Ins Cos. rated A+ (Superior) by A.M. Best since 1954 Mergent Dividend Achiever Traded on NASDAQ s Global Select Market STFC Financial information as of, or for, the twelve months ended 06/30/07. 5

6 Organizational Structure (65% ownership) State Automobile Mutual* State Auto Financial Corp State Auto Wisconsin* State Auto P&C* 518 PML State Auto Florida* Milbank* Farmers Casualty* State Auto Ohio* Meridian Security* Beacon National State Auto National (Non-Std ) Stateco Financial Services Strategic Insurance Software BroadStreet Capital Insurance companies Non-insurance companies STFC and subsidiaries Meridian Citizens Mutual* * All insurance companies except SA National & Beacon National are included in State Auto pooling arrangement. 6

7 Geographic Dispersion ND MN UT AZ CO SD KS OK WI IA MO AR IL MS MI PA MD OH IN WV VA KY NC TN SC GA AL TX FL Premiums (1) ST Active states OH 17.8% KY 11.0% IN 7.3% Approved for business TN 6.8% PA 5.1% MN 5.0% (1) As of 06/30/07 7

8 Product Mix Fire/Allied 8.0% Workers Comp 3.5% Misc Comm 2.6% Misc Personal 2.5% Personal Auto 38.4% Comm G/L 9.3% Comm Multi-Peril 8.6% Comm Auto 9.9% Homeowners 17.2% STFC Annualized Direct Premiums Written = $1.0 Billion Personal Insurance = 60. 9% Business Insurance = 39.1% 8

9 Our Strategies Underwriting Profit Personal Insurance Business Insurance Risk Management 9

10 Underwriting Profit Strategy: Produce underwriting profits by emphasizing disciplined underwriting, pricing and claim processes Accurately price insurance products Train and incent for profit Leverage independent agents as front line underwriters Utilize sophisticated pricing models across all lines Implement efficient claim systems and processes 10

11 Statutory Combined Ratio mos Industry Peer Group STFC Peer group: ALFA, CINF, EMCI, HGIC, OCAS, SAF, SIGI, THG, UFCS Industry data from A.M. Best 11

12 Return On Equity 21.0% 18.0% 15.0% 12.0% 9.0% 6.0% 3.0% 12.7% 9.3% 16.9% 11.6% 11.8% 13.0% 8.5% 6.0% 18.3% 13.6% 12.7% 8.6% 9.5%10.8% 5.2% 5.9% 17.7% 8.8% 15.1% 15.7% 12.4% 0.0% 1.1% -3.0% -2.3% mos Industry Peer Group STFC Peer group: ALFA, CINF, EMCI, HGIC, OCAS, SAF, SIGI, THG, UFCS Industry data from Insurance Services Office 12

13 Personal Insurance Strategy: Provide pricing granularity and ease of doing business through enhanced technology Leverage internet technology Offer a broad product portfolio (standard & specialty) Expand sophisticated pricing models Train and develop new production sources (Pacesetter, STAR) Make opportunistic acquisitions or affiliations 13

14 Personal Insurance Farm 2.5% Misc Pers 2.4% Fire/Allied 2.1% Other Liab 1.5% Non-Std Auto 7.0% Standard Auto 56.2% Home 28.3% STFC Annualized Direct Premiums Written = $638.8 Million 14

15 Auto & Home New Business Upload 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 93% 96% 80% 59% 48% Enables internet based business for agents Auto & Home Allows upload of policy endorsements (80% in 2007) Increases speed and accuracy of policy delivery Currently available in all states 15

16 Business Insurance Strategy: Deliver ease of doing business and speed to market through effective use of people and technology Leverage internet technology Redesign BOP product Develop new pricing sophistication Place empowered people close to customer Improve sales management: account selling, cross selling and agency management 16

17 Business Insurance Workers Comp 9.0% Inland Marine 4.0% Misc Comm 1.8% Comm Auto 24.6% Fire/Allied 17.1% Comm Liab 21.5% Comm Multi-Peril 22.0% STFC Annualized Direct Premiums Written = $411.1 Million 17

18 Risk Management Strategy: Maintain disciplined risk management to increase book value Price products to yield 15% ROE Maintain efficient staffing levels Use reinsurance and other capital resources efficiently Adhere to conservative reserving and investment policies Utilize an integrated risk management philosophy 18

19 Capital protection through reinsurance Effect on STFC of a 1-in-250 year 06/30/07 $200.0 million Credit Facility Event SA Group Maximum Probable Loss STFC Net Loss After Reinsurance Capital Exposed Earthquake $57.0 $ % $80.0 million Traditional Reinsurance Tornado/ Hail Hurricane $149.8 $100.9 $62.0 $ % 5.3% $55.0 million Direct Retention $ in millions AIR Modeling Version 8.0 using 12/31/05 exposures 19

20 Investment Portfolio - June 30, 2007 Total $1.94 Billion (1) Fixed Income Equities Other 84.2% 14.8% 1.0% Equities 14.8% Other Invested Assets 1.0% Total 100.0% U.S. Gov t Agencies-MBS 10.3% Bond Ratings by Moody s Aaa Aa A 70.0% 28.7% 1.3% U.S. Treasury Securities 4.5% Municipal Bonds 69.4% Total 100.0% Average Maturity: 9.7 years Duration: 4.7 Pre-Tax Yield: 4.3% (1) State Auto does not own any direct real estate or derivative investments. 20

21 Book Value Per Share $22.00 $ $ $ $14.00 $12.00 $10.00 $8.00 $6.00 $ $2.00 $ /30 Compound Average Growth Rate, IPO through 06/30/07 = 14% 21

22 Our Performance Second Quarter: Earnings of $0.56 per share vs. $0.10 for 2006 GAAP combined ratio of 96.7 vs for 2006 Catastrophes account for 8.2 loss ratio points LTM Return on Equity of 15.7% Year to Date: Earnings of $1.30 per share vs. $1.07 for 2006 GAAP combined ratio of 94.0 vs for 2006 Catastrophes account for 5.7 loss ratio points 22

23 Comparative Returns STFC vs. S&P 500 vs. P&C Index Jun /30 STFC S&P 500 P&C Index Total Return: 1,262% from IPO to 06/30/07. Compound Average Growth Rate = 18% Source: Bloomberg Professional Assumes reinvestment of dividends 23

24 Dividend History Calendar Year $0.40 $ $0.30 $ $ $0.15 $0.10 $ $ mos Compound Average Growth Rate, IPO through 06/30/07 = 15% Mergent Dividend Achiever

25 Total Revenue $ millions $1,200 $1,100 $1,000 $900 $800 $700 $600 $500 $400 $300 $200 $100 $ mos Compound Average Growth Rate, IPO through 06/30/07 = 15% 25

26 Performance Summary Compound Average Growth Rates (IPO 06/30/07) Stock Price 18% Book Value 14% Dividends (increased every year) 15% Assets 17% Equity 15% Revenue 15% Selected Financial 06/30/07: 5Yr. Avg. Statutory Combined Ratio Yr. Avg. ROE 14.5% 26

27 Recap Proven ability to execute Successful integration of acquisitions Superior long term investment return Consistent book value growth 27

28 State Auto Financial Corporation

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