The worst is over for online brokerage

Transcription

1 Digital economy and structural change E-Banking Snapshot 17 May 6 The worst is over for online brokerage Online stock purchases rebound in Germany despite declining stock ownership. Germans have become more cautious investors over the last few years. The number of stock owners have declined since. Demand for online brokerage also collapsed but contrary to stock ownership, it already reached the trough in the first half of 3. Surveys show that an increasing number of Germans have bought stocks online since then. see chart 1 Upward trend in German online brokerage coincides with improving stock-market performance. The Dow Jones and Euro Stoxx 5 suffered serious blows from the end of the new economy. The European index reacted even more violently. Little wonder then that so many Germans who were just beginning to appreciate stocks as an asset class turned away from the stock market. A recovery started in 3 which did not reverse the trend of declining stock ownership. see chart The share of online stock buyers is higher in Germany than in France or Britain. Forrester, a technology consultancy, reckons that online brokerage will grow robustly in the three biggest European economies over the next few years. Although growth rates will be higher in France and Britain, Germany is projected to defend its leading position within this trio. see chart 3 Author Thomas Meyer thomas-d.meyer@db.com Editor Antje Stobbe Technical Assistant Sabine Kaiser Deutsche Bank Research Frankfurt am Main Germany Internet: marketing.dbr@db.com Fax: Managing Director Norbert Walter In Europe, Swedes are the most enthusiastic online researchers of stock-related information. The internet is a helpful tool to check quotes and company news quickly. Hence, online research is an important first step towards online purchase. see chart Stock ownership is most widespread in Sweden and the UK. Germany, Italy and Spain have ownership rates below the EU-7 average of around %. see chart 5 Stocks are more often purchased online than investment funds or savings. Bank branches are still the most popular place to buy an investment in Germany. But customers use the internet or phone more often in order to buy stocks compared with other assets. This arguably reflects the stronger desire for speed and convenience when tracking stocks. see chart 6 Convenience is the most important motivation for using the online channel. 77% of German online stock buyers say that they chose this channel for convenience. Only 6% cite speed and low fees, respectively, as important reasons while 1% say that they always buy stocks online. see chart 7 The likelihood that a German would buy stocks online increases with the number of financial products already purchased online. Also, other characteristics such as higher wealth, the usage of online banking, a financial relation with a direct bank and being male increase the chances that a person will buy stocks online. Those who own savings products or seek professional advice for their financial decisions are less likely to buy stocks online. see chart

2 Rebound in online stock purchases since 3 German consumers (million) who said that they own stocks (left) bought stocks online during the past 1 months (right) 6 H1 H 3H1 3H H1 H 5H1 5H Online stock purchases rebound in Germany despite declining stock ownership. Germans have become more cautious investors over the last few years. The number of stock owners have declined since. Demand for online brokerage also collapsed but contrary to stock ownership, it already reached the trough in the first half of 3. Surveys show that an increasing number of Germans have bought stocks online since then. back to front Sources: DB Research, Forrester Research Inc. 1 Stock markets have recovered since 3 Index 199=1 Russian moratorium Asian crisis Peak of the new economy bubble 9/ Upward trend in German online brokerage coincides with improving stock-market performance. The Dow Jones and Euro Stoxx 5 suffered serious blows from the end of the new economy. The European index reacted even more violently. Little wonder then that so many Germans who were just beginning to appreciate stocks as an asset class turned away from the stock market. A recovery started in 3 which did not reverse the trend of declining stock ownership. back to front Euro Stoxx 5 Dow Jones Sources: DB Research, Global Insight Share of online stock buyers is higher in Germany than in France or Britain % of consumers who buy stocks online The share of online stock buyers is higher in Germany than in France or Britain. Forrester, a technology consultancy, reckons that online brokerage will grow robustly in the three biggest European economies over the next few years. Although growth rates will be higher in France and Britain, Germany is projected to defend its leading position within this trio FR UK DE Sources: Forrester Research Inc. 3 May 6

3 How Europeans use the internet for research and purchase of stocks % of consumers who research and buy stocks online, 6 Online research Online purchase SE NL DE UK FR 1 6 In Europe, Swedes are the most enthusiastic online researchers of stock-related information. The internet is a helpful tool to check quotes and company news quickly. Hence, online research is an important first step towards online purchase. back to front Sources: DB Research, Forrester Research Inc. Stock-ownership rates vary across Europe % of consumers who own stocks, 5 SE UK FR NL DE IT ES EU Stock ownership is most widespread in Sweden and the UK. Germany, Italy and Spain have ownership rates below the EU-7 average of around %. back to front Source: Forrester Research Inc. 5 Many stock buyers use the online channel - but bank branches are still most popular Channel mix for various assets in Germany, % Stocks are more often purchased online than investment funds or savings. Bank branches are still the most popular place to buy an investment in Germany. But customers use the internet or phone more often in order to buy stocks compared with other assets. This arguably reflects the stronger desire for speed and convenience when tracking stocks. 7 1 Investment funds Stocks Savings products Online Branch Phone Other Basis: German adults who bought this financial product, 5 Sources: DB Research, Forrester Research Inc. 6 May 6 3

4 German online buyers seek convenience Q: Why did you buy this product online? % of responses (multiple answers allowed) Convenience is the most important motivation for using the online channel. 77% of German online stock buyers say that they chose this channel for convenience. Only 6% cite speed and low fees, respectively, as important reasons while 1% say that they always buy stocks online. Convenience is also the most often cited reason for buying investment funds and savings online. Special online offers attract additional buyers of funds and savings but not of stocks. Interestingly, 1% of those who bought savings online say they did so because they had no alternative which probably relates to special offers only available online. 6 Investment funds Stocks Savings products Best rate Speed Special online offer "I always do" Convenience "No choice" Basis: German adults who bought this financial product online, 5 Sources: DB Research, Forrester Research Inc. 7 Which characteristics drive online brokerage? Change in the probability to buy stocks online - other things being equal, pp Purchased an additional financial product online (-)* Owns a sailing boat Places online bets regularly Uses online banking Financial relation to direct bank Male EUR 1, addiditional wealth Relies on professional advice (1-5)** Owns savings products The likelihood that a German would buy stocks online increases with the number of financial products already purchased online. Also, other characteristics such as higher wealth, the usage of online banking, a financial relation with a direct bank and being male increase the chances that a person will buy stocks online. Those who own savings products or seek professional advice for their financial decisions are less likely to buy stocks online. The results of this chart are based on a linear probability model. A reading example: The probability that a randomly chosen German would have bought stocks online during the past 1 months increases by 5%-points if he or she also places online bets regularly compared with someone who does not all other characteristics being equal * financial products in the sample ** On a scale between 1 and 5 65 observations; R²=1%; additional control variables: age, education, income Sources: DB Research, Forrester Research Inc. May 6

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