If You Think Investing is Gambling, You re Doing it Wrong!

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Malcolm Briggs
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1 If You Think Investing is Gambling, You re Doing it Wrong! Warren Buffet Jennifer Arthur, M.Sc. PhD Candidate, University of Adelaide Supervisor: Dr. Paul Delfabbro 10th European Conference on Gambling Studies and Policy Issues

2 Investing versus Gambling Investing has economic utility; gambling does not. Investing has positive expected returns; gambling has negative. Gambling can be addictive and destructive, investing is healthy. Investors are risk-averse; gamblers are risk-seekers. Investing is long-term process; gambling focuses on immediate outcomes. Investing is based on skill and knowledge; whereas gambling is based on luck and emotions.

3 Media On Wall Street, Gambling is Called Innovation and Clients are Called Idiots Jon Stewart

4 'We lost everything gambling on shares' As do-it-yourself investing goes mainstream, one couple lost their life savings by using a tool meant for professionals Gianpaolo Prinzi and Fernanda Freitas invested in shares for their retirement, but lost 180,000 in doing so

5 Public Perception % of North American Adults Indicating whether they consider the Activity to be 'Gambling' (n = 12,843) Purchasing Insurance Starting a Business Buying Raffle or Fundraising Tickets Taking Emotional or Physical Risks Games vs Other People for no $ Buying "Blue Chip" Stocks Playing Games vs. Other People for $ Spending $ on Games at Fairs for Prizes Betting on Sports Buying High-risk Stocks Paying to Enter Tournament with Cash Prizes Horse/Dog Race Betting Casino Table Games for Money Buying Lottery Tickets Bingo for Money Playing EGMs (slots, video lottery terminals) Buying Instant Win Tickets 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Reproduced with permission from Williams, Stevens, &Nixon (2011)

6 Formal Definitions Investing putting money into an asset with the expectation of capital appreciation, dividends, and/or interest earning. This may or may not involve research. Most or all forms of investment involve some risk. Gambling staking money or material goods on an event with an uncertain outcome where the outcome of the event determines whether the stake is lost or additional money or material goods is won. Three elements: Stake, Prize, and Chance

7 Investing or Gambling? Day-Trading? Penny Stocks? Derivatives (Options, Futures, Swaps)? Betting on Financial Indices? Professional Sports Handicapping or Poker Playing? Card counting?

8 Research Questions Do gamblers play the stock market and vice versa? If so, to what extent? Does their pattern of gambling differ from gamblers who do not play the stock market? Is there a stronger relationship between gambling and more speculative stock market products? (e.g., 'penny stocks, day trading)? Is there a relationship between problem gambling and high-risk stock play? Day-Trading? If so, do existing problem gambling instruments capture problematic high-risk stock play? Who are the high-risk stock players? What differentiates them from others? Are there investor subgroups and if so what differentiates investor subgroups?

9 Sample Secondary data analysis of 8498 Canadian adults surveyed via RDD in 2007/2008 Response Rate 46.6% Last major prevalence study of gambling in Canada Included questions about stock market investing

10 Stock Market Questions Do you yourself buy and sell on the stock market? In the past 12 months, have you purchased any high-risk stocks, options, or futures? Roughly how much money do you put into high-risk stocks, options, or futures in a typical year? About how often do you check the value of these investments in a typical MONTH? What do you estimate is your net loss or gain in the past 12 months from high-risk stocks, options, or futures? In your lifetime, what do you estimate is your net loss or gain from investing in high-risk stocks, options or futures? In the past 12 months, have you done any day trading on the stock market, where you buy and sell stocks several times on the same day? How often do you day trade in atypical MONTH? What do you estimate is your net loss (or gain) in the past 12 months from day trading? In your lifetime, what do you estimate is your net loss (or gain) from day trading?

11 Results Total Sample N = 8498 Gamblers n= 6010 (70.7%) Have NOT Independently Traded Stocks, Options, or Futures on the Stock Market n = 5443 (90.5%) Traded Stocks, Options, or Futures on the Stock Market n = 534 (8.9%) Have NOT Traded High- Risk Stocks, Options, or Futures n = 393 (71.3%) Traded High-Risk Stocks, Options, or Futures/Day Traded n = 154 (29.3%)

12 Multivariate Analyses Binary logistic regressions differentiating: Gamblers who independently buy/sell on the stock market compared to gamblers who do not. Gamblers who independently buy/sell high-risk stocks, options, or futures/day trade compared to gamblers who do not Stepwise entry IVs: age, gender, ethnicity, marital status, education, employment status, household income, household debt, physical disability, mental health (past year), past month tobacco use, past month alcohol use, past month drug use, number of gambling formats gambled on, frequency of play on each format, CPGI scores

13 Differences between Gamblers who Independently Buy/Sell on the Stock Market compared to Gamblers who do not Variable Regression Coefficients (B) Wald Statistics Odds Ratios Household Income ** Employment ** Part-Time (-.508) **.602 Self-Employed ** Retired (-.219) Unemployed (-1.124) **.325 Homemaker (-.565) 8.800*.568 Student (-.211) Disability (-1.471) 9.938*.230 Past Month Alcohol Use ** Gender ** Ethnicity ** Ethnicity (Asian) ** Ethnicity (Other) (-.191) 6.124*.826 Age ** Household Debt (-2.349) ** Horse/Dog Racing Frequency ** Bingo Frequency (-.176) **.839 Skill-Based Games Frequency * Table Games Frequency * Instant Win Frequency (-.068) 9.500*.934 Lottery Frequency * Past Month Tobacco Use (-.195) 8.125*.822 Constant **.054 *p <.01 NAGELKERKE R SQUARED = 24.6%. **p <.001 OVERALL PREDICTION SUCCESS = 68.1%

14 Differences between Gamblers who Buy/Sell High-Risk Stocks or Day Trade compared to Gamblers who do not Variable Regression Coefficients (B) Wald Statistics Odds Ratios Household Income ** Gender ** Ethnicity ** Asian ** other (-.531) **.588 Employment Status ** Retired (-.522) **.593 Self-employed ** Other (-.718) **.488 Marital Status ** Married (-.572) **.564 Widowed (-.471) Divorced (-.656) **.519 Never Married Past Month Alcohol Use ** Number of Gambling Formats ** Casino Table Game Frequency ** Instant Win Frequency (-.161) **.852 EGM Frequency (-.276) **.759 Horse/Dog Racing Frequency ** Sports Betting Frequency (-.088) Problem Gambling Status * Past Month Tobacco Use (-.435) **.647 Age ** Physical Disability (-.338) 8.093*.713 Household Debt (-2.419) ** Constant (-4.203) **.015 *p <.01 NAGELKERKE R SQUARED = 40.9% **p <.001 OVERALL PREDICTION SUCCESS = 75.0%

15 Conclusions Only 8.9% of gamblers also independently buy/sell on the stock market (so, not that common an activity among gamblers) However, these people still fairly similar to regular gamblers in many ways in that they engage in same number of gambling formats and are no different in terms of problem gambling status. Also no different in terms of marital status, education, drug use, mental health status, and presence of physical disability.

16 Conclusions Some differences identified (partly due to a very large sample size) but only 24.6% of the variance explained and only 68.1% classification accuracy. Demographically - more likely to be: employed (especially selfemployed or full-time); male; Asian; older; and to have lower household debt, higher incomes. More likely to use alcohol and less likely to use tobacco. Game Play higher frequency of participation in horse race betting, skill-based social betting, casino table games, and lotteries; and less likely to play bingo and instant win tickets.

17 Conclusions So, are high risk stock players more similar to regular gamblers? Yes and No. No, in sense that differences between the groups is greater (variance explained increases to 40.9% and classification accuracy increases to 75%) These people have higher incomes, more likely to be male, Asian, retired, selfemployed, living common-law, use alcohol, not use tobacco, not have physical disability, lower debt. Yes, in the sense that these people have greater involvement in traditional gambling (play more formats) leading to significantly higher rates of problem gambling. Also have higher frequency involvement in casino table games, horse race betting.

18 Limitations Constrained by the parameters of secondary data analysis Could not compare non-gamblers Buying or selling high-risk stocks, options, or futures is not the wording I would have used (as some people use these products to actually hedge risk)

19 Thank you for your attention! Acknowledgements: University of Adelaide, Dr. Paul Delfabbro, and Dr. Robert Williams

20 Differences between Gamblers who Independently Buy/Sell High-Risk Stocks, Options, or Futures/Day Trade compared to Gamblers who only Buy/Sell Low- Risk Stocks/D Variable Regression Coefficients (B) Wald Statistics Odds Ratios Marital Status ** Married (-.694) 5.270*.499 Widowed (-.675) Divorced (-.896) 4.719*.408 Never Married Income ** Casino Table Games Frequency ** CPGI (Total Score) **.312 Gender * Physical Disability (-.726) 4.783*.484 Constant *p <.05 NAGELKERKE R SQUARED = 17.7% **p <.01 OVERALL PREDICTION SUCCESS = 64.8%

HIGH-RISK STOCK TRADING: INVESTMENT OR GAMBLING?

HIGH-RISK STOCK TRADING: INVESTMENT OR GAMBLING? Jennifer Arthur, M.Sc. PhD Candidate, University of Adelaide Co-Authors: Dr. Paul Delfabbro & Dr. Robert Williams 14 th Annual Alberta Research Gambling