Session 7: Big Data: Friend or Enemy for Financial Inclusion. AFI Bangkok 27 July 2012 Page 1

Transcription

1 Session 7: Big Data: Friend or Enemy for Financial Inclusion AFI Bangkok 27 July 2012 Page 1

2 Measuring Access Title of Presentation to Finance in Belarus ECA Regional Forum on Financial AFI Bangkok 27 July 2012 Page 2 Inclusion Policy, Skopje, Macedonia

3 About the Republic of Belarus Total land area of Belarus 207,600 km² Population million Population living in cities 75.8% The capital is Minsk 1.889,1 million inhabitants AFI Bangkok 27 July 2012 Page 3

4 About the Republic of Belarus AFI Bangkok 27 July 2012 Page 4

5 Measuring Access to Finance: Developing Evidence-based Access Policies in Belarus AFI Bangkok 27 July 2012 Page 5

6 Measuring Access to Finance: Developing Evidence-based Access Policies in Belarus The objective of the Project was to assess the conditions that constitute access to financial services in Belarus (market conditions, policy environment and other factors relevant for access) and to develop a strategy to broaden and deepen access to finance based on local market reality and data AFI Bangkok 27 July 2012 Page 6

7 Measuring Access to Finance: Developing Evidence-based Access Policies in Belarus AFI Bangkok 27 July 2012 Page 7

8 Overview of the Methodology Level and Complexity of Analysis Basic measures of access to finance Access to Finance: Individuals and Households Total Financial Inclusion _ Households Financial Participation Index _ Households Measurement Access to Finance: Firms (SMEs) Total Financial Inclusion I _ Firms Financial Participation Index _Firms Instrument Characteristics / Frequency of Research Two separate surveys (households and firms) Repeated on a regular basis annually Comprehensive assessment of access to and use of financial services Impact evaluation -Summative (aggregate) indices of access to finance -Analytical indices specific to various aspects of access to finance as defined by the Access Score card Not considered in this research to be developed separately depending on the interest of the Belarus partners outside of AFI sponsored research Comprehensive analysis of the three dimensions of access to finance: -Demand for financial services -Supply of financial services -Pro-access policies and regulation Administered every 3-4 years Not considered for now Not considered for now Impact evaluation requires a separate research approach AFI Bangkok 27 July 2012 Page 8

9 Overview of the Methodology TOTAL FINANCIAL INCLUSION (TFI) INDEX AFI Bangkok 27 July 2012 Page 9

10 Overview of the Methodology TOTAL FINANCIAL INCLUSION (TFI) INDEX I Ownership/usage of financial products # of financial products Level of use of financial services 0 No use = total financial exclusion 1-2 Basic use (but must have current account and/or savings account) 3-5 Intensive use 6-8 Advanced use 8 + Extensive use Total Financial Inclusion I (%) = 100% - No Use (%) % of Adult Population using Financial Services AFI Bangkok 27 July 2012 Page 10

11 Overview of the Methodology Total Financial Inclusion (TFI) Index II Use of financial services categorized in four major types of financial services: Payment/cash transactions, Credit, Savings, Investment and protection. AFI Bangkok 27 July 2012 Page 11

12 Overview of the Methodology Percentage of population who uses each specific type of services (credit, savings, etc.) TFI-II payment = % of population using payment/cash transactions TFI-II credit = % of population using credit services TFI-II savings = % of population using saving services TFI-II investment = % of population using financial products for investment and protection AFI Bangkok 27 July 2012 Page 12

13 Overview of the Methodology TOTAL FINANCIAL INCLUSION (TFI) INDEX I Percentage of people who use multiple types of services TFI-II multiple = % of population using two or more types of financial services Low (less than 20% of population using the services) Average (20% - 40% of population using the services) Intensive (40%-60% of population using the services) High (more than 60% of population using the services) AFI Bangkok 27 July 2012 Page 13

14 Overview of the Methodology ACCESS TO FINANCE SCORECARD (AFS) AFI Bangkok 27 July 2012 Page 14

15 Access to Finance Score Card AFI Bangkok 27 July 2012 Page 15

16 Overview of the Methodology Research process Preliminary survey of financial inclusion (total financial inclusion) Full access to finance research and analysis Supply side Review of currently available information about the financial institutions and products Demand side Extensive survey of various aspects Policy side Review of the regulations and policies impacting financial inclusion AFI Bangkok 27 July 2012 Page 16

17 Preliminary Survey General Characteristics of the Poll Polling Organization: Institute of Sociology of the Academy of Sciences Belarus of Period: 13 January 13 February 2012 Polling Method: individual interview of the grown-up population of Belarus Polling Sample: 2500 individuals AFI Bangkok 27 July 2012 Page 17

18 Preliminary Survey Results Current account Property insurance Debit card Consumer loan Car insurance Domestic money transfer Savings account Life insurance Medical insurance Internet banking Mobile banking Credit card Overdraft Trip insurance Express loan International money transfer Time deposit Auto loan Stocks Mortgage Home repair loan Educational loan Loan from a credit union Agricultural loan Deposit in a credit union Credit/non-bank financial institution Deposit 28,4 27,6 26,1 14,1 16,6 24,4 13,3 13,0 12,8 12,4 11,4 5,0 6,6 7,3 3,1 3,8 4,4 2,6 1,4 2,3 2,5 0,8 0,8 0,7 0,6 0, ,1 % Use of financial services by individuals AFI Bangkok 27 July 2012 Page 18

19 Preliminary Survey Results Households 15,4 10,1 33,4 28,2 9,2 3,8 0,1 Individuals 14,1 38,6 34, % 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% No answer 0 (No usage ) 1 (basic use) 2 (active use) 3 (advanced use) 4 (extensive use) Components of the Total financial inclusion index TFI-I (individuals and households) AFI Bangkok 27 July 2012 Page 19

20 Preliminary Survey Results 1-Current Account 9-International money transfers, outbound 22-Car insurance 4-Internet banking 10-Working capital loan 26-Social insurance 2-Debit card 8-International money transfers 5-Mobile Banking 23-Property insurance 19-Bank deposit 3-Credit card 13-Auto loan 7-Overdraft 12-Equipment loan 14-Leasing 24-Equipment insurance 6-Cash collection 18-Savings account 17 - Letter of guarantee 11-Mortgage Loan 25-Insurance against theft 27-Credit Insurance 21-Stocks 20-Bonds 16-Letter of Credit 15-Factoring 23,2 30,6 32, ,4 19,6 20,8 13,3 11,4 10,1 9,5 6,6 8,8 9,4 6,5 6,4 4,1 5,2 5,5 2 2,9 3,7 1 1,8 1,9 54,2 97, % Usage of financial services among SMEs AFI Bangkok 27 July 2012 Page 20

21 Preliminary Survey Results Components of the Total Financial Inclusion Index (firms) AFI Bangkok 27 July 2012 Page 21

22 Comprehensive Survey: Policy Assessment of 10 categories of policies Pro-inclusion regulation and banking provisions Promotion of access to the national payment system and other forms of payments Interest rate policies Transparency and disclosure requirements Consumer protection Policies and regulations promote competition in the financial sector Credit bureau and collateral registry Deposit insurance Active government policies to increase access to and use of financial services Financial inclusion as an important policy issue AFI Bangkok 27 July 2012 Page 22

23 Comprehensive Survey: Policy Diagnostic assessment Review of all relevant documents (policies and regulations) Analysis from the point of view of the impact on financial inclusion, that is whether the policies stimulate the use of financial services without creating an unnecessary burden or danger for the users (such as risk of over-indebtedness). Scores from 1 to 5 asigned to each of the categories of policies AFI Bangkok 27 July 2012 Page 23

24 Comprehensive Survey: Policy Experts assessment Insurance companies Universities Research institutes National Bank of Belarus Commercial banks Ministry of Finance of Belarus Ministry of Justice of Belarus Ministry of Economy of Belarus Independent think tanks Leading reporters specialising in economics Belarusian Banks Association AFI Bangkok 27 July 2012 Page 24

25 Comprehensive Survey: Demand Objectives Quality of Access Experience and actual usage of financial products available for consumers Public Confidence in the Financial System Trust in the financial market (in general), in banks, bankers, financial advisors, etc. Financial Capabilities Financial skills and knowledge of individuals AFI Bangkok 27 July 2012 Page 25

26 Comprehensive Survey: Demand Questionnaire 60 questions organized in five sections of the questionnaire: A) Ownership and use of financial services B) Public perceptions and trust C) Financial behavior D) Financial literacy E) Socio-demographic profile AFI Bangkok 27 July 2012 Page 26

27 Access to finance in different regions of Belarus, % number of respondents. AFI Bangkok 27 July 2012 Page 27

28 Access to finance in small adm. units, % number of respondents. AFI Bangkok 27 July 2012 Page 28

29 Usage of credit in small adm. units, % number of respondents. AFI Bangkok 27 July 2012 Page 29

30 Comprehensive Survey: Supply Supply side dimensions Institutional Coverage (I) Geographical Coverage (G) Supply of Financial Services Ease of Access (E) Financial Products and Services (P) AFI Bangkok 27 July 2012 Page 30

31 Comprehensive Survey: Supply Assessment of the supply of financial services Calculation of the value of indicators Calculation of the score in relation to benchmark (Benchmark Value of indicator)/benchmark Explanation Measure Benchmark Target for Belarus Benchmark (B) Value for Belarus (V) Distance to target (D) Physical presence of exchange offices number per 100,000 population Avg for 10 East European countries Physical presence of post offices number per 100,000 population Avg for 10 East European countries AFI Bangkok 27 July 2012 Page 31

32 Comprehensive Survey: Supply Number of bank branches for grown-ups (16 and older) in Vitebsk region of Belarus AFI Bangkok 27 July 2012 Page 32

33 Thank you! Yuri Malafey, Project Manager National Bank of the Republic of Belarus 20 Nezavisimosti Avenue, Room 206 Minsk, , Republic of Belarus Tel. ( ) Mob. ( ) AFI Bangkok 27 July 2012 Page 33