Supply and Demand Conditions for Select Aviation Occupations

Transcription

1 Supply and Demand Conditions for Select Aviation Occupations September, 2013 Prepared by: Minnesota State Colleges and Universities Systems Office In collaboration with: Metropolitan Airports Commission Minnesota Department of Employment and Economic Development

2 TABLE OF CONTENTS Introduction Purpose... 2 Data Limitations... 2 Summary of Findings... 3 Minnesota Regions Supply and Demand Findings for Seven Aviation Occupations Transportation, Storage, and Distribution Managers (Airport Managers)... 7 Workforce Supply for Transportation, Distribution, and Storage Managers... 8 Workforce Demand for Transportation, Distribution, and Storage Managers Aerospace Engineers Workforce Supply for Aerospace Engineers Workforce Demand for Aerospace Engineers Airline Pilots, Co-Pilots, and Flight Engineers Workforce Supply for Airline Pilots, Co-Pilots, and Flight Engineers Workforce Demand for Airline Pilots, Co-Pilots, and Flight Engineers Avionics Technicians Workforce Supply for Avionics Technicians Workforce Demand for Avionics Technicians Aircraft Mechanics and Service Technicians Workforce Supply for Aircraft Mechanics and Service Technicians Workforce Demand for Aircraft Maintenance and Service Technicians Air Traffic Controller Workforce Supply for Air Traffic Controllers Workforce Demand for Air traffic Controllers Dispatchers, Except Fire, Ambulance, and Police Workforce Supply for Dispatchers, Except Fire, Ambulance, and Police Workforce Demand for Dispatchers, Except Fire, Ambulance, and Police MnSCU Aviation Supply and Demand Study Page 1

3 Introduction Purpose This report was prompted by concerns about worker shortages within the aviation industry. The Minnesota State Colleges and Universities (MnSCU) system wishes to make informed and proactive decisions about training it provides, including aviation-related training. This report presents data from statistically reliable sources in order to answer the following questions: What is the current and future demand for select aviation professionals in Minnesota (and, where available, the six planning regions)? Where, if anywhere, do data indicate that demand may be outstripping supply either now or in the future? One of the key goals of the report is to synthesize and summarize findings in a way that will inform discussion about aviation in Minnesota, and support program planning. This report provides an analysis of labor market conditions for seven occupations in the aviation industry, including: Transportation, Distribution, and Storage Managers Aerospace Engineers Airline Pilots, Co-Pilots, and Flight Engineers Avionics Technicians Aircraft Mechanics and Service Technicians Air Traffic Controllers Dispatchers (Except Fire, Ambulance, and Police) The report includes labor market demand data for the state, and, where available, for the six Minnesota planning regions. It also includes data on the supply of workers for these occupations, focusing primarily on new supply; that is, recent completers of the programs related to each of these seven occupations. Data Limitations The data in this report comes from two primary sources. Supply-side data comes from the Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS), which includes completers of all educational programs (in Minnesota and nationally) based on a standard set of program categories. Demand-side data comes from the Minnesota Department of Employment and Economic Development (DEED), which relies on standard occupational categories to quantify labor market conditions. These two sources are the most comprehensive and statistically reliable quantitative sources of supply and demand information available for Minnesota. However, there are some challenges in studying the aviation industry in Minnesota when using these standard data sources. One key constraint is that, due to confidentiality rules, wage and employment data are not publishable when a single employer comprises 80 percent or more of the employment in an MnSCU Aviation Supply and Demand Study Page 2

4 occupation in a given region. This is the case in Minnesota, where one large airline employs the majority of airline pilots, avionics technicians, airplane maintenance workers, and air traffic controllers. Another data issue arises when small employment in an occupation results in small sample sizes and reduced confidence in wage or employment estimates for a given occupation. This is sometimes the case with aviation-related occupations in certain regions in Minnesota. Because of these two limitations confidentiality rules and small sample sizes there are a number of data elements that are unpublishable in this report. One final caveat about the data is that in some cases, the standard occupational classifications (the basis for all published wage and employment data) are broader than the job titles we are interested in studying. For example, there is no standard occupational classification for airport manager. Rather, this job title is subsumed in the broader classification Transportation, Distribution, and Storage Managers. Clearly, not all employees in this broad occupation are employed at airports or doing the work of airport managers, and this must be taken into account in the interpretation of the findings. Because the aviation workforce, in many cases, is regional or national in scope, this report includes program completers from the neighboring states of Iowa, Wisconsin, North Dakota, and South Dakota to provide a more complete view of the supply for some of these occupations. Summary of Findings Transportation, Distribution, and Storage Managers (pages 8-14) This broad occupational group employs just over 2,200 workers in Minnesota, roughly five percent (or 110) of them in the aviation industry. In 2012, there were less than 200 completers of aviation management programs, and many of these completers were from neighboring states. However, there were thousands more graduates of general business management programs in Minnesota alone. Therefore, the statistical data do not support the conclusion that this is a shortage occupation. Employers who experience difficulty hiring aviation managers would do well to consider recruiting general business management graduates, perhaps partnering with nearby institutions to provide aviation-specific training necessary for these graduates to qualify for a job as airport managers. Aerospace Engineers (pages 15-21) Aerospace engineering is a small occupation in Minnesota, employing just 290 people statewide, nearly all of them in the Twin Cities metro. Additionally, there is a projected need for just five new Aerospace Engineers annually. In 2012, there were 104 completers of Aerospace Engineering programs from the University of Minnesota alone (and another 104 from Iowa State University). There were also hundreds more completers of Electrical Engineering and Mechanical Engineering programs. Therefore, it appears from this data that the available supply of new workers is more than adequate to meet the demand. MnSCU Aviation Supply and Demand Study Page 3

5 Airline Pilots, Co-Pilots, and Flight Engineers (pages 22-26) Due to confidentiality rules, there are no publishable data on current or projected employment for airline pilots in Minnesota. The only available measure of labor market demand is the Occupations in Demand indicator, which suggests that current hiring demand for airline pilots is very low. However, it is impossible to draw conclusions about the balance between supply and demand for this occupation based on one indicator. Anecdotal and journalistic reports suggest hiring demand for airline pilots is very high, and that employers are facing difficulties recruiting qualified pilots. And, we do know from the supply data presented in this report that nearly all graduates of pilot programs completed their education in neighboring states (North Dakota and Iowa) in The number of completers from both Minnesota and neighboring states has been declining steadily since 2006 from about 230 to about 150 annually. Avionics Technicians (pages 27-30) There are only 150 Avionics Technicians employed in Minnesota, and because it is such a small occupation, demand data are limited. However, based on available data, the supply may be falling short of demand in this occupation. Over the next ten years, the occupation is projected to need an additional 70 workers (an average of seven per year). However, in 2012, there were only 13 completers of Avionics Maintenance Technology/Technician programs, and all of these graduated from institutions in neighboring states. Therefore, unless employers are recruiting from other states, they may face difficulty filling these occupations. Aircraft Mechanics and Service Technicians (pages 31-36) The statistical data presented in this report supports anecdotal reports of shortages in this occupation. In Minnesota, there are currently 1,300 employed Aircraft Mechanics and Service Technicians, and over the next ten years, there is a projected need for 540 more. However, there were just 66 completers of aircraft mechanic-related programs in 2012, and the majority of these completed their training in neighboring states (South Dakota, Iowa, and Wisconsin). Interestingly, however, current demand indicators do not reflect severe shortages. The Occupations in Demand score is only 3 out of a possible 5 points, and the job vacancy rate in this occupation is lower than the overall statewide average across all occupations. Air Traffic Controllers (pages 37-40) There is relatively little publishable demand data for Air Traffic Controllers. However, we do know that there were 102 graduates of Air Traffic Control programs in 2011 (60 of these graduated from the University of North Dakota; the remaining 42 from Minneapolis Community and Technical College), and a projected need for 300 new Air Traffic Controllers statewide between Although it does not appear that this occupation is in danger of workforce shortages, the lack of data prohibits sweeping conclusions. MnSCU Aviation Supply and Demand Study Page 4

6 Dispatchers, Except Fire, Ambulance, and Police (pages 41-44) This occupation includes a wide variety of dispatchers, not just those employed in the aviation industry. There were nearly 3,800 dispatchers employed in Minnesota in 2012, and this occupation is projected to grow quickly over the coming years. The supply for this occupation does not necessarily come from post-secondary training institutions since the occupation does not require post-secondary training. Therefore, it is difficult to say whether this occupation is in danger of facing workforce shortages. MnSCU Aviation Supply and Demand Study Page 5

7 Minnesota Regions This report provides data about aviation market conditions in six regions: northeast, northwest, central, Twin Cities, southeast and southwest Minnesota. These are the economic planning regions defined by the Minnesota Department of Employment and Economic Development (DEED). For reference, the regions are presented in Figure 1 below, along with the MnSCU campuses in each region. The University of Minnesota and campuses for private colleges/universities are not shown. Figure 1: MnSCU Colleges and Universities by Economic Planning Region Kittson Roseau Marshall Northland Northland Thief River Falls East Grand Forks Polk Red Lake Moorhead Moorhead MSCTC Pennington Norman Mahnomen Clearwater Clay Wilkin Becker MSCTC Detroit Lakes Wadena OtterTail MSCTC Wadena MSCTC Fergus Falls Grant Douglas Alexandria Alexandria Lake of the Woods Bemidji Hubbard Central Lakes Staples Todd Beltrami Bemidji State Northwest NE-Rainy River International Falls Cass Crow Wing Central Lakes Brainerd Morrison Koochiching Itasca NE-Hibbing Hibbing Itasca Grand Rapids Aitkin Mille Lacs Kanabec St. Louis NE-Vermilion Ely NE-Mesabi Range Virginia Eveleth NE-Mesabi Range Duluth Fond du Lac Cloquet Carlton Pine Pine Pine City Lake Lake Superior Benton Anoka Traverse Stevens Pope St. Cloud Anoka-Ramsey St. Cloud Anoka-Ramsey St. Cloud State Isanti Hennepin, Brooklyn Park Big Stone Chisago Cambridge North Hennepin Stearns Sherburne Hennepin, Eden Prairie Swift Kandiyohi Anoka Minneapolis Ridgewater Normandale Washington Century Lac Qui Parle Chippewa Willmar Meeker Wright Metropolitan State Minnesota Ridgewater Ramsey St. Paul West Hennepin Granite Falls Hutchinson Carver Dakota County Canby McLeod Minnesota West Inver Hills Yellow Medicine Renville Scott Dakota Sibley Southeast Tech Southwest Red Wing LeSueur Marshall Nicollet South Central South Central Faribault Wabasha Lincoln Lyon Redwood North Mankato Rice Goodhue Brown Southeast Olmsted Mankato Winona Minnesota West Pipestone Riverland Rochester Owatonna Rochester Winona Pipestone Murray Cottonwood Watonwan Blue Earth Waseca Steele Dodge State Winona Rock Nobles Jackson Freeborn Minnesota West Minnesota Riverland Riverland Austin Fillmore Houston Worthington West Jackson Albert Lea Martin Faribault Mower Cook Minnesota State Colleges Minnesota State Universities February 1, 2012 MnSCU Aviation Supply and Demand Study Page 6

8 Supply and Demand Findings for Seven Aviation Occupations Transportation, Storage, and Distribution Managers (Airport Managers) Table 1a: Occupation and Programs for Transportation, Storage, and Distribution Managers Standard Occupational Classification (SOC) Code SOC Title Transportation, Storage, and Distribution Managers Classification of Instructional Program (CIP) Code CIP Title Aeronautics/Aviation/Aerospace Science and Technology, General Aviation/Airway Management and Operations Business Administration and Management, General Business/Commerce, General Logistics, Materials, and Supply Chain Management Public Administration Transportation/Mobility Management This group includes one occupation Transportation, Storage, and Distribution Managers and seven related academic programs. Not all of the people working in this broad occupational group are employed in the aviation industry, but there is not a finer occupational breakout for aviation managers in particular. 1 Additionally, not all of the educational programs are directly related to airport management. Instead, some of the more general programs here provide students with knowledge of basic management principles that can provide the foundation for further specialization. For example, Business Administration and Management, General program completers 2 will not have had specific training in airport management. However, they may qualify for airport management jobs with a minimum of additional formal training. Most completers of these programs do not go on to become airport managers, but together they make up the potential supply of new workers for airport management jobs (see Table 1c and Figure 1a). The findings in this section of the report rely on this set of occupation/program classifications. 1 The DEED occupational staffing patterns indicated that an estimated five percent of Transportation, Storage, and Distribution Managers work in the air transportation industry. 2 Following the Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS) conventions, this report refers to anyone who completes a particular program as a completer, rather than a graduate. This reflects the fact that students complete programs with a variety of different credentials, including short-term certificates or diplomas, 2-year degrees, 4-year degrees, or graduate degrees. MnSCU Aviation Supply and Demand Study Page 7

9 Workforce Supply for Transportation, Distribution, and Storage Managers Table 1b: Employment for Transportation, Distribution, and Storage Managers, by Region, Third Quarter 2012 Employment, Third Region Quarter, 2012 Central 170 Northeast 80 Northwest 70 Southeast 100 Southwest 110 Twin Cities 1,720 Statewide Transportation, Distribution, and Storage Managers 2,260 Statewide All Occupations 2,641,110 Source: Minnesota Department of Employment and Economic Development, Occupational Employment Statistics. = Data not available due to confidentiality rules. To understand the complete picture of supply and demand, it is helpful to know the overall size of the occupation. Table 1b shows the current employment for Transportation, Distribution, and Storage Managers by region. The vast majority (over two-thirds) of these professionals are employed in the Twin Cities region, with Central Minnesota employing the next largest share at about 7.5 percent. Generally speaking, with just 2,260 employees statewide, this is not a large occupation. Table 1c: 2012 Completers of Academic Programs Related to Transportation, Storage, and Distribution Management Institution 2012 Program Completers Program: Aeronautics/Aviation/Aerospace Science and Technology, General Saint Cloud State University 32 University of North Dakota 8 South Dakota State University 3 University of Minnesota-Crookston 3 Iowa Lakes Community College 1 Total 47 Program: Aviation/Airway Management and Operations University of North Dakota 36 University of Dubuque 24 MnSCU Aviation Supply and Demand Study Page 8

10 Minnesota State University-Mankato 24 Academy College 7 South Dakota State University 4 Dakota County Technical College 1 Total 96 Program: Business Administration and Management, General (Minnesota graduates only) University of Minnesota-Twin Cities 690 University of St. Thomas 428 Metropolitan State University 393 North Hennepin Community College 291 Hamline University 268 Saint Cloud State University 245 Bethel University 232 Rasmussen College-Minnesota 222 Concordia University-Saint Paul 205 Winona State University 200 Minnesota State University-Mankato 190 Minnesota School of Business-Richfield 188 Augsburg College 175 Bemidji State University 145 Southwest Minnesota State University 144 Globe University-Woodbury 138 The College of Saint Scholastica 129 University of Minnesota-Duluth 99 Saint John s University 86 Minnesota State University Moorhead 83 Minneapolis Community and Technical College 72 University of Minnesota-Crookston 57 St Catherine University 56 Northwestern College 52 Minnesota School of Business-Rochester 50 Minnesota School of Business-Blaine 47 Minnesota School of Business-Waite Park 46 Argosy University-Twin Cities 40 Century Community and Technical College 40 Concordia College at Moorhead 37 Saint Paul College-A Community and Technical College 37 Saint Mary's University of Minnesota 36 DeVry University's Keller Graduate School of Management-Minnesota 35 St Cloud Technical and Community College 34 Globe University-Minneapolis 32 College of Saint Benedict 32 Anoka-Ramsey Community College 32 Dunwoody College of Technology 30 Dakota County Technical College 29 MnSCU Aviation Supply and Demand Study Page 9

11 University of Minnesota-Morris 29 Alexandria Technical & Community College 29 Minnesota West Community and Technical College 29 National American University-Bloomington 28 Rochester Community and Technical College 24 South Central College 23 Minnesota School of Business-Brooklyn Center 21 Bethany Lutheran College 21 National American University-Brooklyn Center 21 Minnesota School of Business-Plymouth 20 Crown College 20 Rasmussen College-Minnesota 20 DeVry University-Minnesota 19 Minnesota School of Business-Moorhead 18 Minnesota School of Business-Elk River 18 Minnesota School of Business-Shakopee 17 Central Lakes College-Brainerd 16 Lake Superior College 14 Hennepin Technical College 13 North Central University 12 National American University-Roseville 10 Brown College-Mendota Heights 10 Crossroads College 10 Itasca Community College 8 Minnesota School of Business-Lakeville 8 Minnesota State Community and Technical College 7 Pine Technical College 6 Duluth Business University 4 ITT Technical Institute-Eden Prairie 4 Northland Community and Technical College 3 Brown College-Brooklyn Center 2 Leech Lake Tribal College 2 Northwest Technical College 2 Herzing University-Minneapolis 1 Oak Hills Christian College 1 White Earth Tribal and Community College 1 Total 5,836 Program: Business/Commerce, General (Minnesota graduates only) North Hennepin Community College 276 Saint Mary's University of Minnesota 136 Anoka-Ramsey Community College 73 The College of Saint Scholastica 47 Gustavus Adolphus College 36 Inver Hills Community College 35 Riverland Community College 12 MnSCU Aviation Supply and Demand Study Page 10

12 Minnesota State Community and Technical College 11 Northwest Technical College 7 Mesabi Range Community and Technical College 3 Minnesota West Community and Technical College 2 Vermilion Community College 2 Crown College 1 Saint Cloud State University 1 Total 642 Program: Logistics, Materials, and Supply Chain Management (Minnesota graduates only) Saint Paul College-A Community and Technical College 11 Total 11 Program: Public Administration (Minnesota graduates only) University of Minnesota-Twin Cities 57 Hamline University 33 Minnesota State University-Mankato 30 Saint Cloud State University 12 Minnesota State University Moorhead 8 Winona State University 8 Southwest Minnesota State University 3 Total 151 Program: Transportation/Mobility Management University of Wisconsin-Superior 18 North Dakota State University-Main Campus 6 Iowa State University 2 Total 26 Source: Integrated Postsecondary Data System (IPEDS), 2012 Table 1c shows the 2012 completers of all seven educational programs related to Transportation, Distribution, and Storage management. Not surprisingly, the programs that are more specialized in aviation had fewer completers than the programs that are geared toward management in general. For example, there were just 96 completers of Aviation/Airway Management and Operations programs (the majority of these from neighboring states) compared to 5,836 graduates of Business Administration and Management, General (Minnesota completers only). Given the total number of people employed as Transportation, Distribution, and Storage Managers in Minnesota (2,260, as shown in Table 1b), it appears that higher education in Minnesota and neighboring states can easily meet the demand for these professionals. However, employers in the aviation industry may need to be prepared to hire completers of general business programs to fill their needs. An option may be to partner with institutions that are already offering aviation management programs to supplement general training with aviation-specific principles. MnSCU Aviation Supply and Demand Study Page 11

13 Figure 1a: Completers of Programs Related to Transportation, Distribution, and Storage Management, Aeronautics/Aviation/Aerospace Science and Technology, General Aviation/Airway Management and Operations Business Administration and Management, General* Business/Commerce, General* Logistics, Materials, and Supply Chain Management* Public Administration* Transportation/Mobility Management Source: Integrated Postsecondary Data System (IPEDS), National Center for Educational Statistics *Minnesota completers only; does not include completers from neighboring states. Figure 1a shows the number of program completers over time ( ) for the seven programs that are related to Transportation, Distribution, and Storage Management. Clearly, the largest and fastestgrowing programs are those in Business Administration and Management, General, producing thousands of graduates from well over 50 institutions each year. Second-largest are Business/Commerce, General, producing approximately 500 graduates per year. Programs that are more specialized toward aviation or transportation produce smaller numbers of graduates (in the teens to twenties each year) and these programs show little change in the number of graduates over time. MnSCU Aviation Supply and Demand Study Page 12

14 Workforce Demand for Transportation, Distribution, and Storage Managers Table 1d: Current Demand Indicators for Transportation, Storage, and Distribution Managers Employment, Third Quarter, 2012* Occupations in Demand Indicator (1=Low; 5=High) Job Vacancy Rate** Region Central Northeast 80 5 Northwest 70 3 Southeast Southwest Twin Cities 1, % Statewide Transportation, Storage, and Distribution Managers 2, % Available for detailed Statewide All Occupations 2,641,110 occupations only 2.8% * Source: Minnesota Department of Employment and Economic Development, Occupational Employment Statistics ** Source: Minnesota Department of Employment and Economic Development, Job Vacancy Survey Source: Minnesota Department of Employment and Economic Development, Occupations In Demand. Estimates are produced at the regional labor market area (11 region) level, and averaged to produce estimates at the planning region level. = Data not available due to confidentiality rules and/or small sample sizes. Current levels of workforce demand can be measured by three indicators, shown in Table 1d. Employment counts, shown in the second column, provide an estimate of the size of the occupation, giving a rough idea of the number of workers needed to fill these jobs. The Occupations in Demand indicator, shown in the second data column, is a composite measure that combines employment, unemployment, and job vacancy data into a single score that ranges from 1 to 5. A high score indicates high demand for workers in the occupation and a low score indicates low demand. Finally, job vacancy rates, displayed in the third column, show the share of jobs that are vacant for every 100 people employed in the occupation. Current demand for Transportation, Storage, and Distribution Managers varies across regions, from relatively low in the Southwest (2) to high in the Northeast (5). Statewide, current demand is relatively high: The Occupations in Demand indicator is 4 out of a possible 5 and the job vacancy rate (3.7 percent) is higher than the overall statewide average for all occupations (2.8 percent). MnSCU Aviation Supply and Demand Study Page 13

15 Table 1e: Total Projected Openings and Projected Growth Rate for Transportation, Storage, and Distribution Managers, by Region Total Projected Openings, Projected Growth Rate, Region Central % Northeast % Northwest % Southeast % Southwest % Twin Cities % Statewide Transportation, Storage, and Distribution % Managers Statewide All Occupations 1,041, % Source: Minnesota Department of Employment and Economic Development, Occupational Employment Projections. Total projected openings includes those openings due to new growth as well as the need to replace workers due to turnovers or retirements. Future demand is most commonly indicated by the number of projected openings due to growth and replacement within an occupation, along with the projected growth rate for that occupation (see Table 1e). Projected growth for Transportation, Storage, and Distribution Managers ranges from very low in Northeast Minnesota (3.5 percent) to fairly high in the Southeast (17.3 percent). The Twin Cities region, while posting a relatively small rate of growth (just 9.2 percent), will require the largest number of new workers (410) during this decade. MnSCU Aviation Supply and Demand Study Page 14

16 Table 1f: MnSCU Program Completers who Report Related Employment, 2011 Number of Completers Reporting Related Employment Related Employment Rate Program Aeronautics/Aviation/Aerospace Science and Technology, General % Aviation/Airway Management and Operations % Business Administration and Management, General 4, % Business/Commerce, General % Logistics, Materials, and Supply Chain Management % Public Administration % Transportation/Mobility Management Total All Programs 80, % Source: Minnesota State Colleges and Universities System Graduate Follow-Up Survey. This number does not reflect the total number of completers, but rather, represents the subset of completers who (1) responded to the survey; and (2) reported finding related employment. The related employment rate represents the share of those reporting related employment divided by the number of students who are available for work. Due to the different reporting timelines and code changes, related employment counts may differ from total number of completers at MnSCU institutions. = Data not available due to small sample size. A final indicator of the balance between supply and demand is the share of program completers who report finding employment that is related to their program of study. Table 1f shows this data for MnSCU graduates (the only group for which these data are available). Overall, the statewide related employment rate across all programs is 82.1 percent. Related employment rates for completers of these management programs are similar, ranging from 72.2 percent (for graduates of Logistics, Materials, and Supply Chain Management) to 87.8 percent for graduates of Aeronautics/Aviation/Aerospace Science and Technology, General. MnSCU Aviation Supply and Demand Study Page 15

17 Aerospace Engineers Table 2a: Occupation and Programs for Aerospace Engineers Standard Occupational Classification (SOC) Code SOC Title Aerospace Engineers Classification of Instructional Program (CIP) Code CIP Title Aerospace, Aeronautical and Astronautical/Space Engineering Electrical and Electronics Engineering Mechanical Engineering This group includes one occupation Aerospace Engineers and three related academic programs, including Aerospace, Aeronautical and Astronautical/Space Engineering; Electrical and Electronics Engineering; and Mechanical Engineering (see Table 2a). While many completers of electrical and mechanical engineering programs do not go into aerospace engineering occupations, some do. 3 Therefore, together these three programs represent the potential new supply for Aerospace Engineers. Workforce Supply for Aerospace Engineers Table 2b: Employment for Aerospace Engineers, by Region, Third Quarter 2012 Employment, Third Region Quarter, 2012 Central Northeast Northwest Southeast Southwest Twin Cities 280 Statewide Aerospace Engineers 290 Statewide All Occupations 2,641,110 Source: Minnesota Department of Employment and Economic Development, Occupational Employment Statistics. = Data not available due to confidentiality rules or small sample size. 3 This is based on the National Crosswalk Center s CIP-to-SOC crosswalk, which matches academic programs to occupations. MnSCU Aviation Supply and Demand Study Page 16

18 To provide context on the labor market conditions for this occupation, Table 2b, above, shows the current employment for Aerospace Engineers in the Twin Cities and statewide. This is a small occupation, so data are not publishable for any Greater Minnesota regions. There are an estimated 280 Aerospace Engineers in the Twin Cities region, and 290 in the state as a whole. Table 2c: 2012 Completers of Academic Programs Related to Aerospace Engineering Institution 2012 Program Completers Program: Aerospace, Aeronautical and Astronautical/Space Engineering University of Minnesota-Twin Cities 104 Iowa State University 104 Total 208 Electrical and Electronics Engineering (Minnesota graduates only) University of Minnesota-Twin Cities 283 University of Minnesota-Duluth 23 Saint Cloud State University 22 University of St Thomas 22 Minnesota State University-Mankato 19 Total 369 Mechanical Engineering (Minnesota graduates only) University of Minnesota-Twin Cities 273 University of St Thomas 73 University of Minnesota-Duluth 64 Saint Cloud State University 32 Minnesota State University-Mankato 29 Total 471 Source: Integrated Postsecondary Data System (IPEDS), 2012 Table 2c shows the 2012 completers of the three programs related to aerospace engineering. Between the University of Minnesota and Iowa State University, there were 208 completers of Aerospace, Aeronautical and Astronautical/Space Engineering programs in There were an additional 369 completers of Electrical and Electronics Engineering programs and 423 completers of Mechanical Engineering programs (in Minnesota only). Given these numbers relative to the number of Aerospace Engineers employed in Minnesota (290), it does not appear that this occupation is in significant danger of shortage, at least statewide. MnSCU Aviation Supply and Demand Study Page 17

19 Figure 2a: Completers of Programs Related to Aerospace Engineering, Aerospace Engineering Electrical and Electronics Engineering* Mechanical Engineering* Source: Integrated Postsecondary Data System (IPEDS), National Center for Educational Statistics *Minnesota completers only Figure 2a shows the number of program completers over time ( ) for the three programs that are related to aerospace engineering. In general, the number of completers from these programs has increased just slightly over time, with Aerospace Engineering programs (in Minnesota as well as neighboring states) producing around 200 graduates per year and Mechanical Engineering and Electrical and Electronics Engineering programs each producing around twice that (in Minnesota only). MnSCU Aviation Supply and Demand Study Page 18

20 Workforce Demand for Aerospace Engineers Table 2d: Current Demand Indicators for Aerospace Engineers Employment, Third Quarter, 2012* Occupations in Demand Indicator (1=Low; 5=High) Job Vacancy Rate** Region Central Northeast 4 Northwest Southeast Southwest Twin Cities % Statewide, Aerospace Engineers % Statewide, All Occupations 2,641,110 Available for detailed occupations only 2.8% * Source: Minnesota Department of Employment and Economic Development, Occupational Employment Statistics ** Source: Minnesota Department of Employment and Economic Development, Job Vacancy Survey Source: Minnesota Department of Employment and Economic Development, Occupations In Demand. Estimates are produced at the regional labor market area (11 region) level, and averaged to produce estimates at the planning region level. = Data not available due to confidentiality rules and/or small sample sizes. Current levels of workforce demand can be measured by several indicators, shown in Table 2d. Employment counts, shown in the second column, provide an estimate of the size of the occupation, giving a rough idea of the number of workers needed to fill these jobs. The Occupations in Demand indicator, shown in the second data column, is a composite measure that combines employment, unemployment, and job vacancy data into a single score that ranges from 1 to 5. A high score indicates high demand for workers in the occupation and a low score indicates low demand. Finally, job vacancy rates, displayed in the third column, show the share of jobs that are vacant for every 100 people employed in the occupation. For most Greater Minnesota regions, current demand data indicators for Aerospace Engineers is not publishable because of the relatively small employment in this occupation. However, Table 2d shows that demand is moderate in the Twin Cities (OID = 3; job vacancy rate is 3.1 percent) and slightly higher statewide, relative to all occupations. While the statewide job vacancy rate (17.5 percent) is much higher than the average for all occupations (2.8 percent) we can extrapolate from the small employment count that this does not amount to a large number of vacancies. MnSCU Aviation Supply and Demand Study Page 19

21 Table 2e: Total Projected Openings and Projected Growth Rate for Aerospace Engineers, by Region Total Projected Openings, Projected Growth Rate, Region Central Northeast Northwest Southeast Southwest Twin Cities % Statewide Aerospace Engineers % Statewide All Occupations 1,041, % Source: Minnesota Department of Employment and Economic Development, Occupational Employment Projections. Future demand is most commonly indicated by the number of projected openings within an occupation, along with the projected growth rate for that occupation (see Table 2e). Again, because of the relatively small employment in this occupation, projections information is not publishable for Greater Minnesota regions. However, in the Twin Cities and statewide, there is projected to be a need for 50 additional Aerospace Engineers between 2010 and The projected growth rate for this occupation is 5.6 percent and 6.2 percent for the Twin Cities region and statewide, respectively. This is a much slower growth rate than the overall average for all occupations. Taking the projected demand of 50 statewide compared to the number of program completers shown in Table 2c, the data do not suggest that aerospace engineering is a shortage occupation in Minnesota. Table 2f: MnSCU Program Completers who Report Related Employment, 2011 Number of Completers Reporting Related Employment Related Employment Rate Program Aerospace, Aeronautical and Astronautical/Space Engineering Electrical and Electronics Engineering % Mechanical Engineering % Total, All Programs 80, % Source: Minnesota State Colleges and Universities System Graduate Follow-Up Survey. This number does not reflect the total number of completers, but rather, represents the subset of completers who (1) responded to the survey; and (2) reported finding related employment. The related employment rate represents the share of those reporting related employment divided by the number of students who are available for work. Due to the different reporting timelines and code changes, related employment counts may differ from total number of completers at MnSCU institutions. = Data not available due to small sample size. MnSCU Aviation Supply and Demand Study Page 20

22 A final indicator of the balance between supply and demand is the share of program completers who report finding employment that is related to their program of study. Table 2f shows this data for MnSCU graduates (the only group for which these data are available). Overall, the statewide related employment rate across all programs is 82.1 percent. Due to a small number of survey respondents, related employment rates are not available for graduates of Aerospace, Aeronautical and Astronautical/Space Engineering programs. However, related employment rates are higher than average for graduates of both Electrical and Electronics Engineering and Mechanical Engineering programs (85.7 and 89.2 percent, respectively, compared to a statewide average of 82.1 percent), indicating that these graduates are having a comparatively easy time finding employment. MnSCU Aviation Supply and Demand Study Page 21

23 Airline Pilots, Co-Pilots, and Flight Engineers Table 3a: Occupation and Programs for Airline Pilots, Co-Pilots, and Flight Engineers Standard Occupational Classification (SOC) Code SOC Title Airline Pilots, Co-Pilots, and Flight Engineers Classification of Instructional Program (CIP) Code CIP Title Airline/Commercial/Professional Pilot and Flight Crew Flight Instructor This group includes one occupation Airline Pilots, Co-Pilots, and Flight Engineers (see Table 3a). This occupation includes pilots who are qualified to fly of fixed-wing, multi-engine aircraft, usually on scheduled air carrier routes, for the transport of passengers and cargo. The occupation requires Federal Air Transport Pilot certificate and rating for specific aircraft type used. It includes regional, national, and international airline pilots and flight instructors of airline pilots. It does not include commercial pilots, who are not licensed to fly on scheduled routes. The academic programs included in this group are: Airline/Commercial/Professional Pilot and Flight Crew; and Flight Instructor (see Table 3a). These two academic programs are the only ones that train pilots to fly aircraft. Workforce Supply for Airline Pilots, Co-Pilots, and Flight Engineers Table 3b: Employment for Airline Pilots, Co-Pilots, and Flight Engineers, by Region, Third Quarter 2012 Employment, Third Region Quarter, 2012 Central Northeast Northwest Southeast Southwest Twin Cities Statewide Airline Pilots, Co-Pilots, and Flight Engineers Statewide All Occupations 2,641,110 Source: Minnesota Department of Employment and Economic Development, Occupational Employment Statistics. = Data not available due to confidentiality rules. MnSCU Aviation Supply and Demand Study Page 22

24 Note: While current employment levels would be an important source of information on workforce supply, all employment data on Airline Pilots, Co-Pilots, and Flight Engineers is not publishable due to confidentiality rules. Table 3c: 2012 Completers of Programs Related to Airline Piloting, Co-Piloting, and Flight Engineering Institution 2012 Completers Airline/Commercial/Professional Pilot and Flight Crew University of North Dakota 93 University of Dubuque (Iowa) 23 Lake Superior College 6 Fox Valley Technical College 4 Indian Hills Community College 4 Academy College 2 Iowa Central College 1 Inver Hills Community College 1 Gateway Technical College 1 Total 135 Flight Instructor South Dakota State University 6 University of North Dakota 5 Total 11 Source: Integrated Postsecondary Data System (IPEDS), 2012 Table 3c shows the 2012 completers of the two programs that train students to fly aircraft. The data in Table 3c includes graduates of Minnesota institutions as well as those from neighboring states. In 2012, there were 135 graduates of Airline/Commercial/Professional Pilot and Flight Crew programs the vast majority of whom (93) completed their education at the University of North Dakota. There were an additional 11 graduates of Flight Instructor programs six from South Dakota State University and five from the University of North Dakota. Since no employment data is publishable for this occupation, it is difficult to know with certainty whether the occupation is adequately supplied. However, what is clear is that there are few Minnesota-trained pilots. Industry experts may have other sources of employment or demand information for pilots, and may find the information on program completers helpful. MnSCU Aviation Supply and Demand Study Page 23

25 Figure 3a: Completers of Pilot-Related Programs, Airline/Commercial/Professional Pilot and Flight Crew Flight Instructor Source: Integrated Postsecondary Data System (IPEDS), National Center for Educational Statistics Figure 3a shows the number of program completers over time ( ) for the pilot-related programs. The number of completers of Airline/Commercial/Professional Pilot and Flight Crew has declined steadily over time since 2006, dropping from nearly 300 to less than 150. The number of completers of Flight Instructor programs has remained steady, but quite low. MnSCU Aviation Supply and Demand Study Page 24

26 Workforce Demand for Airline Pilots, Co-Pilots, and Flight Engineers Table 3d: Current Demand Indicators for Airline Pilots, Co-Pilots, and Flight Engineers Employment, Third Quarter, 2012* Occupations in Demand Indicator (1=Low; 5=High) Job Vacancy Rate** Region Central Northeast Northwest Southeast 1 Southwest Twin Cities 1 Statewide Airline Pilots, Co-Pilots, and Flight Engineers 1 Available for detailed Statewide All Occupations 2,641,110 occupations only 2.8% * Source: Minnesota Department of Employment and Economic Development, Occupational Employment Statistics ** Source: Minnesota Department of Employment and Economic Development, Job Vacancy Survey Source: Minnesota Department of Employment and Economic Development, Occupations In Demand. Estimates are produced at the regional labor market area (11 region) level, and averaged to produce estimates at the planning region level. = Data not available due to confidentiality rules and/or small sample sizes. While current demand indicators would be an important source of information on workforce demand, most employment data on Airline Pilots, Co-Pilots, and Flight Engineers is not publishable due to confidentiality rules (see Table 3d). The only available data point is the statewide Occupations In Demand indicator for this occupation. Since the OID score is 1, this indicates a low demand for these professionals in Minnesota as a whole. However, in the absence of employment or job vacancy data, it is important to be conservative when drawing conclusions about current demand in this occupation. Table 3e: Total Projected Openings and Projected Growth Rate for Airline Pilots, Co-Pilots, and Flight Engineers, by Region Total Projected Openings, Projected Growth Rate, Region Central Northeast Northwest Southeast Southwest Twin Cities Statewide Airline Pilots, Co-Pilots, and Flight Engineers Statewide All Occupations 1,041, % Source: Minnesota Department of Employment and Economic Development, Occupational Employment Projections. MnSCU Aviation Supply and Demand Study Page 25

27 Note: All projections data on Airline Pilots, Co-Pilots, and Flight Engineers is not publishable due to confidentiality rules. Table 3f: MnSCU Program Completers who Report Related Employment, 2011 Total Number of Completers Reporting Related Employment Related Employment Rate Program Airline/Commercial/Professional Pilot and Flight Crew % Flight Instructor Total All Programs 80, % Source: Minnesota State Colleges and Universities System Graduate Follow-Up Survey. This number does not reflect the total number of completers, but rather, represents the subset of completers who (1) responded to the survey; and (2) reported finding related employment. The related employment rate represents the share of those reporting related employment divided by the number of students who are available for work. Due to the different reporting timelines and code changes, related employment counts may differ from total number of completers at MnSCU institutions. = Data not available due to small sample size. A final indicator of the balance between supply and demand is the share of program completers who report finding employment that is related to their program of study. Table 3f shows this data for MnSCU graduates (the only group for which these data are available). Overall, the statewide related employment rate across all programs is 82.1 percent, while the related employment rate for completers of Airline/Commercial/Professional Pilot and Flight Crew is 83.3 percent. It is worth noting, however, that this is based on a very small sample size, so the estimate may be subject to a high degree of sampling error. MnSCU Aviation Supply and Demand Study Page 26

28 Avionics Technicians Table 4a: Occupations and Programs for Avionics Technicians Standard Occupational Classification (SOC) Code SOC Title Avionics Technicians Classification of Instructional Program (CIP) Code CIP Title Avionics Maintenance Technology/Technician As shown in Table 4a, this group includes one occupation (Avionics Technicians) and one related academic program (Avionics Maintenance Technology/Technician). Workforce Supply for Avionics Technicians Table 4b: Employment for Avionics Technicians, by Region, Third Quarter 2012 Employment, Third Region Quarter, 2012 Central Northeast Northwest Southeast Southwest Twin Cities 80 Statewide Avionics Technicians 150 Statewide All Occupations 2,641,110 Source: Minnesota Department of Employment and Economic Development, Occupational Employment Statistics. = Data not available due to confidentiality rules or small sample size. Table 4b shows the current employment for Avionics Technicians in Minnesota. This is a very small occupation, so data are suppressed due to small sample sizes and/or confidentiality rules for all Greater Minnesota regions. There are an estimated 80 Avionics Technicians in the Twin Cities region, and 150 in the state as a whole (indicating that approximately 70 Avionics Technicians were employed across the five other regions in the state). MnSCU Aviation Supply and Demand Study Page 27

29 Table 4c: 2012 Completers of Avionics Maintenance Technology/Technician Programs 2012 Institution Completers Iowa Western Community College 18 Fox Valley Technical College (Wisconsin) 12 Indian Hills Community College (Iowa) 2 Total 32 Source: Integrated Postsecondary Data System (IPEDS), 2012 Table 4c shows the number of graduates from Avionics Technician programs in Minnesota and neighboring states. All 32 graduates completed their training in neighboring states Iowa and Wisconsin. However, given the need for approximately 150 Avionics Technicians in Minnesota (based on the employment figures in Table 4b), this suggests that unless these completers from these programs migrate to Minnesota, this occupation is in danger of facing worker shortages. Figure 4a: Completers of Avionics Maintenance Technology/Technician Programs, Avionics Maintenance Technology/Technician Source: Integrated Postsecondary Data System (IPEDS), National Center for Educational Statistics Figure 4a shows the number of program completers over time ( ) for Avionics Maintenance Technology/Technician programs. The number of completers has stayed below 50 per year over this time period, and generally remained stable, with a slight drop between 2010 and MnSCU Aviation Supply and Demand Study Page 28

30 Workforce Demand for Avionics Technicians Table 4d: Current Demand Indicators for Avionics Technicians Employment, Third Quarter, 2012* Occupations in Demand Indicator (1=Low; 5=High) Job Vacancy Rate** Region Central Northeast Northwest Southeast Southwest Twin Cities 80 4 Statewide Avionics Technicians Available for detailed Statewide All Occupations 2,641,110 occupations only 2.8% * Source: Minnesota Department of Employment and Economic Development, Occupational Employment Statistics ** Source: Minnesota Department of Employment and Economic Development, Job Vacancy Survey Source: Minnesota Department of Employment and Economic Development, Occupations In Demand. Estimates are produced at the regional labor market area (11 region) level, and averaged to produce estimates at the planning region level. = Data not available due to confidentiality rules and/or small sample sizes. Most demand data for Avionics Technicians is suppressed due to confidentiality rules and/or small sample sizes (see Table 4d). The only measure available to gauge current demand is the Occupations In Demand indicator, statewide and in the Twin Cities. The OID score is 4 for both regions, indicating a relatively high demand for these workers. Again, however, because this is the only demand indicator available, it is important to be conservative about drawing overall conclusions about employer demand for Avionics Technicians. Table 4e: Total Projected Openings and Projected Growth Rate for Avionics Technicians Total Projected Openings, Source: Minnesota Department of Employment and Economic Development, Occupational Employment Projections. Projected Growth Rate, Region Central Northeast Northwest Southeast Southwest Twin Cities Statewide, Avionics Technicians % Statewide, All Occupations 1,041, % MnSCU Aviation Supply and Demand Study Page 29