Gen Re Dread Disease Survey Initial Results

Transcription

1 Gen Re Dread Disease Survey Wolfgang Droste Session Number: MBR8 Joint IACA, IAAHS and PBSS Colloquium in Hong Kong

2 Agenda Background of Gen Re s Dread Disease Survey The Survey results Summary Market Survey and Product Features Claims Analysis Incidence Rates Analysis 2

3 Number of participating companies South Africa 0 (3) New Zealand 11 (new) Hong Kong 17 (16) Malaysia 11 (7) Singapore 7 (6) 95 companies in the Gen Re Dread Disease Survey Thailand 5 (new) Indonesia 4(new) Australia 10 (new) UK 4 (4) China 25 (12) Korea 3 (new) Initial Results 3

4 Expanding Scope of the Survey Survey Countries Companies Claims Lives In-force , ,000 3 million ,000 4 million , million * ,000 > 70 million Initial Results 4

5 Agenda Background of Gen Re s Dread Disease Survey The Survey results Summary Market Survey and Product Features Claims Analysis Incidence Rates Analysis 5

6 Distribution of In-Force Policies by Product Type Total China Hong Kong Malaysia Singapore Korea Australia UK Traditional 65,881,831 56,518,249 1,301,874 3,240,367 1,159,556 1,094, ,521 1,993,563 Juvenile 1,917,749 1,788,851 76,908 8,713 42, Cancer 650, ,527 1,987 23, Female 545, , , ,351 31, Male 3, , Total 68,999,836 59,139,170 1,528,899 3,434,815 1,234,675 1,094, ,013 1,993,563 Initial Results 6

7 In-Force Policies by Age Band Age Group China Hong Kong Malaysia Singapore Korea Australia UK % 5% 19% 16% 9% 2% 0% % 17% 21% 16% 29% 7% 15% % 34% 30% 28% 30% 30% 43% % 30% 20% 25% 23% 40% 33% % 12% 9% 13% 7% 19% 9% 60+ 2% 2% 1% 2% 0% 2% 1% Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Average Age Average duration

8 Average Sum Insured (US$) of In-Force Policies by Age Band 160, , , ,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 China Hong Kong Malaysia Singapore Australia UK

9 Number of New Policies Written by Year as % of New Policies Written in Year 2004 China Hong Kong Malaysia Singapore Australia South Korea UK Survey 5,472, , ,489 80, , Survey 6,176, , ,568 75,993 74, , ,213 9

10 Average Sum Insured (US$) for New Business China Hong Kong Malaysia Singapore Korea Australia UK 10

11 Benefit Type China Hong Kong Malaysia Singapore Australia Korea UK 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Acceleration Type Additional Type 11

12 Premium Reviewability In-Force Policies China Hong Kong Malaysia Singapore Australia Korea UK 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Fully Guaranteed Ltd period gtee Not guaranteed Other Unknown 12

13 Med Distribution of In-Force Business China Hong Kong Malaysia Singapore Australia Korea UK 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Med Non-Med Simplified Issue Unknown 13

14 Waiting Period China Hong Kong Malaysia Singapore Australia Korea UK 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

15 Survival Period for Additional DD Products China Hong Kong Malaysia Singapore Australia UK 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

16 Agenda Background of Gen Re s Dread Disease Survey The Survey results Summary Market Survey and Product Features Claims Analysis Incidence Rates Analysis 16

17 Number of Claims by Market All claims collected Total China Hong Kong Malaysia Singapore Australia Korea UK New Zealand DD 452, ,524 11,808 21,354 9,049 7,870 5,428 16,360 3,477 Death 294, ,095 1,646 8,934 1, ,823 3, Total 747, ,619 13,454 30,288 10,333 8,776 7,251 19,522 4,054 17

18 Declinature Rate by Market China Hong Kong Malaysia Singapore Australia UK 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% DD Survey DD Survey DD Survey

19 Declinature Rate by Duration Declinature rate for duration 0 & 1 claims as % of declinature rate for duration 2+ claims 500% 450% 400% 350% 300% 250% 200% 150% 100% 50% 0% China Hong Kong Malaysia Singapore Australia UK 19

20 Reasons for Declinature China (17,763) Hong Kong (425) Malaysia (16) Singapore (199) Australia (188) UK (379) 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Non-disclosure Within waiting period Definition not met Disease not covered Exclusions Other 20

21 Number of Days from Diagnosis to Benefit Payment for All Admitted Claims All Admitted Claims Claims Occurred in First Policy Year Diagnosis to Notification Notification to Benefit Payment Diagnosis to Benefit Payment China Hong Kong Malaysia Singapore Korea N/A N/A 43 Australia New Zealand UK China Hong Kong Malaysia Singapore Korea N/A N/A 59 Australia New Zealand UK

22 Agenda Background of Gen Re s Dread Disease Survey The Survey results Summary Market Survey and Product Features Claims Analysis Incidence Rates Analysis 22

23 > Include all claims for Standard lives Traditional type products Methodology Some products may cover more diseases than other, range from 5 to 49, most cover diseases, all products cover at least cancer, heart attack and stroke >All products are treated as 100% acceleration, i.e. exposed to risk ceases when a claim occurs, either as Dread Disease Claim or as Death Claims >Only include exposure and claims after waiting period > Actual over Expected Ratios (A/E) Number of expected claims are calculated using the graduated incidence rates from the DD survey

24 Cancer Incidence Rates per 1000 by Duration Males China Hong Kong Malaysia Singapore Australia Korea UK

25 Cancer Site Distribution by Market Males 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Other sites Urinary tract Thyroid Stomach and Oesophagus Nasopharynx Male genital organs Lymphoma Lung Liver Leukaemia Colorectal 25

26 100% Cancer Site Distribution by Age Band Hong Kong Males 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Other sites Urinary tract Thyroid Stomach and Oesophagus Nasopharynx Male genital organs Lymphoma Lung Liver Leukaemia Colorectal 26

27 Cancer Incidence Rates per 1000 by Duration Females China Hong Kong Malaysia Singapore Australia Korea UK 27

28 Cancer Site Distribution by Market Females 100% 90% Other sites 80% Liver 70% Urinary tract 60% Leukaemia 50% Lymphoma 40% Stomach and Oesophagus 30% Nasopharynx 20% Lung 10% Thyroid 0% Colorectal Female genital organs Breast 28

29 Cancer Site Distribution by Age Band Hong Kong Females 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Other sites Urinary tract Thyroid Stomach and Oesophagus Nasopharynx Lymphoma Lung Liver Leukaemia Female genital organs Colorectal Breast 29

30 Population Cancer Incidence - Female Per 1000 all sites Hong Kong Shanghai China-All China-Urban China-Rural

31 Per 1000 Breast 0.60 Population Cancer Incidence - Female Hong Kong Shanghai China-All China-Urban China-Rural

32 Cancer Incidence Hong Kong Female Breast Insured lives No. of Claims Cancer Incidence Population Cancer Incidence Insured lives / Population Ratio Age All dur % 0% 167% % 102% 85% % 93% 131% % 170% 126% % 75% 114% % 94% 116% % 74% 108% % 84% 80% % 180% 124% % 103% 111% 32

33 Cancer Incidence China Female Thyroid Insured lives No. of Claims Cancer Incidence Population Cancer Incidence Insured lives/population Ratio Age All dur % 166% 118% % 93% 122% % 96% 117% % 106% 115% % 88% 104% % 55% 104% % 55% 78% % 73% 74% % 64% 88% % 81% 100% 33

34 Thyroid cancer experience in Korea Thyroid cancer rates for females in Korea increased almost seven timesfrom 1999 to 2008 Source: National Cancer Registration & Statistics 2008, the Korea Central Cancer Registry 34

35 Thyroid cancer experience in Korea No indication that the increase of the thyroid cancer diagnosis rates has been stabilising Further increases should occur in particular in minor conditions of thyroid cancer Age distribution of currently insured portfolios of an obligatory Critical Illness rider is similar to the age structure of newly diagnosed thyroid cancers Companies should hence experience the impact of the deterioration of rates already at this stage In South Korea, thyroid cancer makes up a significant proportion of critical illness claims. Mortality from papillary thyroid cancer is very low, but prevalence is approximately 10% (based on post-mortem studies). People are having ultrasounds after buying a critical illness policy and then claiming. Robjohns et al, Exploring The Critical Path, A report from the Critical Illness Trends Research Group 35

36 Why has Korea such a bad experience? Product perspective 100% of sum insured needs to be paid for any cancer - benefit does not distinguished between minor cancers and severe cancers, company pays 100% of sum insured in both cases. Medical environment Medical technology improvement There is a good national health system in Korea Medical check up Regular medical check-up is popular Doctors intensively do diagnostic activities such as ultrasonography for thyroid cancer 36

37 Stroke incidence rate, by sex and duration 0,60 Stroke 0,50 0,40 0,30 0,20 Dur 0 Dur 1 Dur 2+ 0,10 0,00 CN-M HK-M CN-F HK-F Age 30-59, Age Adjusted using WHO 2000 Standard Population, Per

38 Regional Differences 38

39 Regional Differences 4,00 Incidence Rate By Region - Cancer + Stroke + Heart Attack + Kidney Failure 3,50 3,00 2,50 2,00 M F 1,50 1,00 0,50 0,00 NorthEast North East South Central NorthWest SouthWest HongKong 39

40 2,50 Regional Differences Incidence Rate By Region - Cancer 2,00 1,50 1,00 M F 0,50 0,00 NorthEast North East South Central NorthWest SouthWest HongKong Dur 2+, Age 30-59, Age Adjusted using WHO 2000 Standard Population, Per

41 Regional Difference Incidence Rate By Region - Breast Cancer 0,90 0,80 0,70 0,60 0,50 0,40 0,30 M F 0,20 0,10 0,00 NorthEast North East South Central NorthWest SouthWest HongKong Dur 2+, Age 30-59, Age Adjusted Gen Re Dread using Disease WHO Survey Standard Population, Per

42 Regional Differences 0,30 Incidence Rate By Region - Nasopharyngeal Cancer 0,25 0,20 0,15 0,10 M F 0,05 0,00 NorthEast North East South Central NorthWest SouthWest HongKong Dur 2+, Age 30-59, Age Adjusted using WHO 2000 Standard Population, Per

43 Regional Differences Incidence Rate By Region - Stroke 1,00 0,90 0,80 0,70 0,60 0,50 0,40 M F 0,30 0,20 0,10 0,00 NorthEast North East South Central NorthWest SouthWest HongKong Dur 2+, Age 30-59, Age Adjusted Gen Re Dread using Disease WHO Survey Standard Population, Per

44 Agenda Background of Gen Re s Dread Disease Survey The Survey results Summary Market Survey and Product Features Claims Analysis Incidence Rates Analysis

45 Summary Dread Disease products continue to sell well Sold mainly to and children High ex-gratia % in China High declinature rates in Australia High declinature rates in Australia Stable incidence rates in HKMS Increasing incidence rates in China Cancer incidence rates increasing Significant difference among companies and among regions

46 Thank you! Joint IACA, IAAHS and PBSS Colloquium in Hong Kong