Public colleges, public dollars. Recent trends in higher education in New Hampshire

Transcription

1 Public colleges, public dollars Recent trends in higher education in New Hampshire March 2014

2 Authors Daniel Barrick Deputy Director Steve Norton Executive Director Kerry McHugh Intern About this paper This paper, like all of our published work, is in the public domain and may be reproduced without permission. Indeed, the Center welcomes individuals and groups efforts to expand the paper s circulation. Copies are available at no charge on the Center s web site: Contact the Center at info@nhpolicy.org; or call Write to: NHCPPS, 1 Eagle Square, Suite 510, Concord, NH 03301

3 TABLE OF CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY... 1 THE CHANGING PRICE OF PUBLIC HIGHER EDUCATION... 2 THE STUDENT PIPELINE: FROM HIGH SCHOOL TO HIGHER ED... 8 CHANGES TO INSTITUTIONAL ENROLLMENT THE STUDENT EXPERIENCE STUDENT DEBT STUDENT SUCCESS STATE APPROPRIATIONS TO HIGHER EDUCATION STATE SUPPORT: HOW DOES NEW HAMPSHIRE COMPARE? CONCLUSION FIGURES Figure 1: Tuition and Fees have been increasing across USNH... 3 Figure 2: Five-Year Percentage Change in Average In-State Tuition and Fees... 3 Figure 3: Tuition and Fees Remaining Level Across CCSNH... 4 Figure 4: Five-Year Percentage Change in Average In-State Tuition and Fees... 4 Figure 5: Relationship between State Fiscal Support and Average In-State Tuition... 5 Figure 6: Tuition Rates Climbing Faster than Falls in State Appropriations per Student... 6 Figure 7: NH Ranks 2 nd in Tuition Costs at Public-Two Year Colleges... 7 Figure 8: NH Ranks 1st in Tuition Costs at Public Four-Year Colleges... 8 Figure 9: More NH High School Grads are Choosing CCSNH... 9 Figure 10: The share of NH high school graduates going out of state for college has declined slightly over the past decade Figure 11: USNH Application Rates Increasing, Enrollment Rates Decreasing Figure 12: USNH Acceptance Rate Increasing, Yield Rate Decreasing Figure 13: Possible Relationship Between Increasing Tuition and Decreasing Enrollment Figure 14: Total USNH Enrollment Up from 2003, Down from Figure 15: USNH Total Undergraduate Enrollment Shows Recent Declines Figure 16: USNH Nonresident Enrollment Increasing at a Faster Rate than Resident Enrollment Figure 17: NH is tie for the second lowest share of high school graduates who remain in the state for higher education Figure 18: CCSNH enrollment trends are similar to USNH enrollment trends Figure 19: NH's student population has been steadily falling for the past decade Figure 20: Class sizes are getting larger at UNH Figure 21: Average student debt increasing at all USNH institutions Figure 22: Cohort default rate varies across CCSNH Figure 23: Cohort default rate varies across USNH Figure 24: Retention rates vary by institution Figure 25: Retention rates for CCSNH transfers to USNH generally improving Figure 26: USNH six-year graduation rates generally improving Figure 27: State Appropriations to USNH and CCSNH Figure 28: NH Appropriations to Higher Education per Capita Below US Average Figure 29: NH Appropriations to Higher Education per $1,000 in Personal Income Below US Average Figure 30: NH Ranks 50th in State Support per $1,000 in Personal Income Figure 31: NH Ranks 50th in State Support per Capita Figure 32: NH Ranks 49th in State Support per Full-Time Student... 29

4 TABLE OF CONTENTS TABLES Table 1: KSC and UNH nonresident enrollment increasing faster than resident enrollment Table 2: Student to faculty ratio varies by college Table 3: Full-time instructional faculty numbers decreasing at some USNH colleges Table 4: Part-time instructional faculty numbers increasing at most USNH colleges... 19

5 Public colleges, public dollars: Higher education in New Hampshire 1 Executive summary New Hampshire s public higher education systems have been the source of considerable debate through the years, much of it tied to questions of public financing. 1 But the state s higher education landscape has seen numerous recent changes, not limited to questions of public support. Freshman enrollment rates have dropped within the University System of New Hampshire (USNH), while tuition has increased across all state public higher education institutions. New Hampshire students are graduating with among the highest levels of student debt in the country. Declining numbers of high school graduates in the past decade have put pressure on New Hampshire colleges to recruit students from out of state. All of these trends have broader policy implications for New Hampshire, as the state looks to develop an educated workforce to fuel future economic growth. Continued financial pressures promise to keep this issue at the fore of future state budgetary debates. Underlying these trends is an unresolved question: What is the role of public higher education in New Hampshire? Nationally, there have been several recent efforts to better understand the value that colleges and universities both public and private provide to their students and society at large. The Obama Administration has proposed linking federal student aid to student outcomes, affordability, and other measures. A coalition of 18 colleges and universities including Southern New Hampshire University has been developing a way to use data such as cost per degree and employment outcomes for graduates as a way of measuring value. And in many states, some variation on performancebased funding in which public funds are linked to the achievement of specific goals, such as graduation rate and degree production is either in place or being considered. This report provides a data foundation to further similar conversations in New Hampshire. We document current trends on both the state and national level including measures of costs, state financial support, student outcomes and enrollment trends in an attempt to provide more context for the higher education debate. Our larger goal is to better inform a discussion about the value provided by the state s institutions of higher learning. Among the notable points in this report: While state support for public higher education in New Hampshire increased in the most recent budget cycle, after several years of cuts or flat funding, overall funding remains roughly equal to pre-recession levels. 1 In New Hampshire, public higher education is divided into two systems the University System of New Hampshire (USNH) and the Community College System of New Hampshire (CCSNH). The University System is comprised of four institutions the University of New Hampshire, Keene State College, Plymouth State University and Granite State College. The Community College System is comprised of seven institutions NHTI Concord, Manchester Community College, Nashua Community College, Great Bay Community College, Lakes Region Community College, White Mountains Community College and River Valley Community College.

6 Public colleges, public dollars: Higher education in New Hampshire 2 The division of public funding between the public four-year and two-year systems has shifted significantly since the mid 2000s, with the Community College System of New Hampshire receiving a much bigger share of total state support. Acceptance rates at USNH schools have risen significantly over the past five years, while the percentage of accepted students who enroll at USNH schools has fallen sharply over the same period. It is unclear what relation this trend bears to recent increases in tuition. Underlying the trends outlined here is an unresolved question: What is the role of public higher education in New Hampshire? Are community colleges and public universities designed to aid workforce development for state-based businesses? Are they intended mainly to provide access to post-secondary education for students who cannot afford private school tuition? Are they supposed to be economic development engines for their respective regions and the state as a whole? These trends will also shape New Hampshire s economy, as the state looks to replace an aging workforce with new generations of skilled workers. For many New Hampshire policymakers, the debate over higher education still remains focused simply on finances: how much to allocate to the campuses in the state budget every two years. But if they want to connect higher education fiscal policy to New Hampshire s broader strategic goals, policymakers need a better grounding of the basic trends shaping the state s public colleges and universities. Understanding the interaction of state appropriations, tuition, financial aid, and student enrollment is critical to the development of the state s priorities for public higher education. These trends, and the policy questions they raise, will also shape New Hampshire s economy, as the state looks to replace an aging workforce with new generations of skilled, educated workers. The changing price of public higher education Over the past decade, in-state tuition has increased at all University System of New Hampshire institutions (see Figure 1). Until 2010, the rate of increase followed a consistent pattern, with year-to-year tuition and fee increases averaging about 7 percent at the University of New Hampshire, Plymouth State University and Keene State College. 2 Between the and school years, year-to-year tuition increases averaged more than 10 percent at those three schools. Tuition and fees have increased at a slower rate for Granite State College. Between 2006 and 2013, tuition and fees at Granite State College increased at a rate of about 5 percent each year. 2 Average between academic year and academic year.

7 Public colleges, public dollars: Higher education in New Hampshire 3 Figure 1: Tuition and Fees have been increasing across USNH USNH Undergraduate Tuition and Fees, $18,000 $16,000 $14,000 $12,000 UNH UNH-M PSU KSC GSC $10,000 $8,000 $6,000 $4,000 $2,000 $ Source: USNH Fact Books FY FY2013 Nationally, the cost of higher education (as measured by published tuition rates) has increased rapidly in recent years. In the past five years, several states have increased tuition at public four-year institutions by more than 50 percent (see Figure 2). The highest rate of increase was in Arizona, which saw an 80 percent from to Average tuition at public four-year institutions in New Hampshire increased by slightly less than 40 percent over that period. Figure 2: Five-Year Percentage Change in Average In-State Tuition and Fees 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Five-Year Percentage Change Public Four-Year Institutions by State, to New Hampshire MD OH MO MT ND WY NJ AR PA IA IN KS CT OK SC NE ME MS NY TX VT MI AK SD IL MN WV NM MA KY WI ID UT DE OR VA TN NC RI NH LA CO NV AL HI GA WA FL CA AZ Source: The College Board, Trends in College Pricing 2012, Figure 7.

8 Public colleges, public dollars: Higher education in New Hampshire 4 Over the past decade, in-state tuition has also increased within the Community College System of New Hampshire as well (see Figure 3). Between academic years and , per credit costs within the CCSNH nearly doubled. In , the cost per credit was $110. By , the cost per credit increased to $210. Since academic year , the cost per credit within the CCSNH has remained level. Figure 3: Tuition and Fees Remaining Level Across CCSNH CCSNH Per Credit Costs, $250 $200 $150 $100 $50 $ Source: Community College System of New Hampshire. Nationally, tuition and fees at almost all public two-year institutions have also increased. New Hampshire has witnessed a comparatively small percent increase, with public twoyear tuition and fees increasing by about 9 percent from to (see Figure 4). Figure 4: Five-Year Percentage Change in Average In-State Tuition and Fees 105% 95% 85% 75% 65% 55% 45% 35% 25% 15% 5% -5% Five-Year Percentage Change Public Two-Year Institutions by State, to New Hampshire ME MT ND M SC MD OH NH MN NE IN KY VT WWI NJ NY WIA CT OK DE KS UT TX PA OR MI AZ AR MS IL NM ID AK MA RI TN SD AL CO W GA FL NV LA HI NC VA CA Source: The College Board, Trends in College Pricing 2012, Figure 7.

9 Public colleges, public dollars: Higher education in New Hampshire 5 Evidence suggests that the level of state funding has a direct impact on tuition costs for in-state students. In states that fund higher education at the highest levels, like Wyoming, tuition and fees for in-state students are some of the lowest in the country (see Figure 5). In states that fund higher education at the lowest levels, like New Hampshire, tuition and fees for in-state students are higher (see Figure 5). Figure 5: Relationship between State Fiscal Support and Average In-State Tuition State Fiscal Support and Average Four-Year Tuition, $16,000 $14,000 NH VT y = x R 2 = Average Four-Year Tuition $12,000 $10,000 $8,000 $6,000 $4,000 PA NJ IL MI DE MA RI WA VA MN SC CO AZ CT ME CA OH WI IN KY OR MD TX MO IA SD TN KS GA NV NY FL OK ID MT LA UT AL HI NE AR WV MS ND AK NC NM WY $2,000 $0 $0 $2 $4 $6 $8 $10 $12 $14 $16 State Support Per $1,000 in Personal Income Source: Illinois State University, Grapevine Data and The College Board, Trends in College Pricing 2012, Figure 7 Yet, the loss of state appropriations does not fully explain the increases to the cost of public higher education in New Hampshire. Between 2003 and 2011, average tuition rates within the University System rose nearly 40 percent even with tuition rates adjusted for inflation (see Figure 6). 3 During the same time period, state appropriations per full-time equivalent student decreased by less than 12 percent. 4 3 Average tuition is based on an enrollment weighted calculation. Average tuition was weighted by the total number of full-time equivalent (FTE) resident degree candidates. FTE resident graduate degree candidates were not included in the enrollment data. Tuition rates were adjusted for inflation using the Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Price Index. 4 State appropriations per FTE resident student is based on total appropriations to the USNH and total number of resident full-time equivalent (FTE) students. Total number of FTE students includes continuing education students, graduate students, and all undergraduate students. State appropriations per FTE resident student were adjusted for inflation using the Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Price Index.

10 Public colleges, public dollars: Higher education in New Hampshire 6 Figure 6: Tuition rates climbing faster than decreases in state appropriations per student $12,000 State Appropriations per FTE and Average USNH Tuition, in 2012 Dollars, $10,000 Average Tuition Appropriations per FTE $8,000 $6,000 $4,000 $2,000 $ Source: Author s calculations based on data from the USNH Fact Books FY2004- FY2013. National comparisons also show that New Hampshire s current tuition rates for both public two and four-year institutions are some of the highest in the country. Among public two-year colleges, New Hampshire ranked second in terms of cost for in-state, full-time students in with average tuition and fees amounting to more than $6,700 (see Figure 7). In contrast, average tuition and fees at public two-year institutions in Maine were about $3,300 for the school year. The only state with higher instate tuition and fees was Vermont, where average tuition and fees were about $40 dollars more than in New Hampshire.

11 Public colleges, public dollars: Higher education in New Hampshire 7 Figure 7: NH Ranks 2 nd in Tuition Costs at Public-Two Year Colleges 5 Average In-State Tuition and Fees at Public Two Year Institutions by State, $7,500 $7,000 New Hampshire $6,500 $6,000 $5,500 $5,000 $4,500 $4,000 $3,500 $3,000 $2,500 $2,000 $1,500 $1,000 $500 $0 CA NM TX NC AZ MS WY KS NE NV AR ID MO WV LA MI MT HI FL DE UT OK GA IL ME CT CO IN TN OH SC MD RI AK ND WI AL VA KY PA OR NJ IA WA NY MA SD MN NH VT Source: The College Board, Trends in College Pricing 2012, Figure 7. Among public four-year institutions, New Hampshire ranks even higher in terms of cost for in-state, full-time students. In , the state ranked 1 st in the nation with average tuition and fees at public four-year institutions amounting to more than $14,500 (see Figure 8). In contrast, average tuition and fees at public four-year institutions in Massachusetts were about $10,600. Even in Vermont, which boasts the second highest average in-state tuition and fees for four-year colleges, tuition rates were on average $1,000 less than in New Hampshire. 5 Average tuition rates refer to full-time students only.

12 Public colleges, public dollars: Higher education in New Hampshire 8 Figure 8: NH Ranks 1st in Tuition Costs at Public Four-Year Colleges Average In-State Tuition and Fees at Public Four-Year Institutions by State, $16,000 $15,000 $14,000 $13,000 New Hampshire $12,000 $11,000 $10,000 $9,000 $8,000 $7,000 $6,000 $5,000 $4,000 $3,000 $2,000 $1,000 $0 WY UT NM LA AK WV ID MT MS NC FL OK NV NY AR ND SD NE KS GA TN IA MO MD OR TX CO KY HI WI IN AL OH CA ME CT AZ VA MN MA SC WA RI DE MI IL PA NJ VT NH Source: The College Board, Trends in College Pricing 2012, Figure 7. The student pipeline: From high school to higher ed Over the past decade, the post-graduation plans of New Hampshire high school graduates have shifted. In 2003, about 27 percent of the state s high school seniors intended to enroll at either a public two- or four-year college in New Hampshire. 6 About 11 percent indicated they planned to enroll within the CCSNH and about 16 percent within the USNH (see Figure 9). By 2012, the percentage of high school seniors planning to enroll within the Community College System increased by more than 4 percent. Meanwhile, the number of students planning to enroll within the University System decreased by about 2 percent. The trend in New Hampshire is similar to broader national trends that indicate strong growth within the community college sector during the recession. 7 6 Based on information from guidance counselors at public schools and academies complied by the New Hampshire Department of Education. 7 Alan Berube and Sara Goldrick-Rab, Stimulus for America s Community Colleges, Brookings Institute, February 2009.

13 Public colleges, public dollars: Higher education in New Hampshire 9 Figure 9: More NH High School Grads are Choosing CCSNH NH High School Completers by Destination, % 12.0% CCSNH UNH Plymouth Keene 9.0% 6.0% 3.0% 0.0% Source: New Hampshire Department of Education. When we include in this analysis New Hampshire high school graduates who chose to go to a non-usnh four-year college (both in and out of state), we see a similar trend: that share of students has held relatively stable, with a slight drop since the recession (Figure 10). From this, we can conclude that New Hampshire high school graduates do not appear to be choosing non-usnh schools over USNH campuses. Rather, some higher share of students appears to be choosing to attend the state s community college system, especially since the beginning of the recession in 2008.

14 Public colleges, public dollars: Higher education in New Hampshire 10 Figure 10: The share of NH high school graduates going out of state for college has declined slightly over the past decade Post-secondary destinations for New Hampshire high school graduates, % 35% 30% 4-year school other than USNH 25% 20% USNH school 15% 10% 5% CCSNH school 0% Note: Prior to 2003, data for two-year schools was not available in a detailed manner. Admissions data from the University System mirrors the data from the Department of Education. In the fall of 2003, USNH institutions received about 7,000 in-state, first-time freshman applications (see Figure 11). Of those 7,000 applicants, about 5,200 were admitted and 2,350 enrolled in a USNH institution. By the fall of 2012, the number of instate, first-time freshman applicants had increased to more than 8,700. Of those, about 7,000 were admitted and 2,280 enrolled in a USNH institution. Although the number of in-state applicants had increased by about 25 percent, the number who actually enrolled decreased slightly, by about 3 percent.

15 Public colleges, public dollars: Higher education in New Hampshire 11 10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 Figure 11: USNH Application Rates Increasing, Enrollment Rates Decreasing 8 Total USNH Resident First-Time, Freshman Admissions, ,000 5,000 4,000 Applied Admitted Enrolled 3,000 2,000 1, Source: USNH Fact Book FY11-FY13 Figure 12 further highlights decreasing in-state freshman enrollment within the University System. In 2003, the in-state acceptance rate within the USNH was 75 percent. The yield rate (percentage of accepted students who eventually enroll at a USNH campus) at that time was 45 percent. In 2012, the system-wide, in-state acceptance rate increased to 81 percent. Meanwhile, the yield rate fell to 32.5 percent. In other words, even as in-state application and admission rates have increased within the University System, fewer students have enrolled. 8 This Figure includes admissions data from the University of New Hampshire, Keene State College and Plymouth State University. It does not include data from Granite State College, as GSC typically attracts a lower share of new high school graduates.

16 Public colleges, public dollars: Higher education in New Hampshire 12 Figure 12: USNH Acceptance Rate Increasing, Yield Rate Decreasing Total USNH Resident First-Time Freshman Admissions, Trends in Acceptance Rate and Yield Rate, % 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% Acceptance Rate Yield Rate 10% 0% Source: USNH Fact Book FY11- FY13. One possible explanation for the decrease in enrollment is increasing tuition rates. 9 Figure 13 below compares the in-state enrollment rate at the University of New Hampshire from to the in-state tuition rate. While the chart appears to indicate some correlation between increasing tuition and decreasing enrollment, numerous other factors may be at play, including declining numbers of high school graduates over that period and increased competition from other colleges in the Northeast (discussed below). Figure 13: Possible Relationship Between Increasing Tuition and Decreasing Enrollment $18,000 UNH Yield Rate and In-State Tuition/Fees, $16,000 $14,000 $12,000 $10,000 $8,000 $6, y = x R 2 = $4,000 $2,000 $0 30.0% 32.0% 34.0% 36.0% 38.0% 40.0% 42.0% 44.0% 46.0% 48.0% Yield Rate 9 Source: Hans Johnson, Defunding Higher Education: What are the Effects on College Enrollment?, Public Policy Institute of California, May 2012.

17 Public colleges, public dollars: Higher education in New Hampshire 13 Changes to institutional enrollment In the past decade, total enrollment within the University System has fluctuated (see Figure 14). In 2003, total USNH enrollment was about 27,000. By 2012, total enrollment increased to about 29,000 students an increase of 5.9 percent over ten years. Although total enrollment within the USNH increased from 2003 to 2012, enrollment is down nearly 3 percent from its peak in It is unclear if the more recent declines are a product of the economic recovery (i.e., fewer people leaving the workforce to pursue higher education), high tuition costs, or some other factor. For instance, this decline aligns with a similar trend in the number of annual high school graduates in New Hampshire, which peaked in 2009 and has declined annually since then. Figure 14: Total USNH Enrollment Up from 2003, Down from ,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 Total USNH Institutional Enrollment, UNH-M GSC KSC PSU UNH Source: USNH Fact Book FY11- FY13. Between 2003 and 2012, total enrollment increased at all USNH institutions except UNH-Manchester, where total enrollment decreased by more than 25 percent. The main cause of the drop was decreased enrollment among part-time degree students and continuing education students. The drop in the number of part-time and continuing education students lends support to the idea that the economic recovery may be responsible for some of the enrollment declines. As the economy has recovered somewhat from the impacts of Great Recession, it is feasible that fewer people would feel the need to turn to higher education to improve their career prospects. Over the past decade, USNH undergraduate degree candidate enrollment has also fluctuated (see Figure 15). Between 2003 and 2012, total undergraduate degree candidate enrollment increased by about 9 percent. However, total undergraduate degree candidate enrollment is down more than 3 percent from the high in Total enrollment includes degree-seeking and non-degree seeking students, full and part-time students, graduate and undergraduate students. Does not include non-credit students.

18 Public colleges, public dollars: Higher education in New Hampshire 14 Figure 15: USNH Total Undergraduate Enrollment Shows Recent Declines Total Undergraduate Degree Candidate Enrollment, ,000 25,000 UNH-M GSC KSC PSU UNH 20,000 15,000 10,000 5, Source: USNH Fact Book FY04- FY13. When enrollment is broken down by state residency, additional trends become clear. Figure 16 highlights the changes to USNH undergraduate enrollment by state residency. In 2003, resident undergraduate enrollment totaled 12,945. By 2012, resident undergraduate enrollment totaled 14,259 an increase of 11 percent. In contrast, nonresident undergraduate enrollment in 2003 totaled 8,401. By 2012, non-resident undergraduate enrollment totaled 9,648 an increase of nearly 15 percent. Figure 16: USNH Nonresident Enrollment Increasing at a Faster Rate than Resident Enrollment 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 Total USNH Undergraduate Degree Candidate Enrollment, by State Residency, ,000 2,000 0 Resident Nonresident Source: USNH Fact Book FY04- FY13. Table 1 provides greater detail on resident and non-resident enrollment trends within the University System. Between 2003 and 2012, non-resident enrollment at both the University of New Hampshire and Keene State College increased at a faster rate than resident enrollment. Meanwhile, non-resident enrollment at Plymouth has increased at a slower rate than resident enrollment.

19 Public colleges, public dollars: Higher education in New Hampshire 15 Table 1: KSC and UNH nonresident enrollment increasing faster than resident enrollment 11 KSC UNH PSU Res Non-res Ratio Res Non-res Ratio Res Non-res Ratio to 12 Change 4.1% 19.0% 14.0% 16.1% 9.2% 4.6% Source: USNH Fact Book FY04- FY13. These trends are especially important in New Hampshire, given the large share of in-state high school graduates who leave the state for college and our disproportionate dependence on out-of-state students to boost enrollment at in-state public colleges. As Figure 17 shows, New Hampshire is tied with Vermont for the second lowest share of native college students who remain in their home state for post-secondary education (42 percent in New Hampshire in 2008, compared to nearly 75 percent nationally). Figure 17: NH is tied for the second lowest share of high school graduates who remain in the state for higher education Percent of resident high school graduates remaining in state for higher education, % 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% New Jersey New Hampshire Vermont Connecticut N.H. Maryland Hawaii Delaware Rhode Island Wyoming Massachusetts Maine Alaska Minnesota Illinois Oregon Idaho Washington Colorado New York South Dakota Virginia U.S. Nevada Montana North Dakota Missouri Wisconsin Iowa Pennsylvania Kansas New Mexico Georgia Nebraska Tennessee Ohio Arizona Mississippi Texas California Florida Michigan North Carolina South Carolina Kentucky Oklahoma Alabama Arkansas Indiana West Virginia Louisiana Utah Source: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics 11 Granite State College and UNH-Manchester are not included in the table because resident students make up more than 90 percent of their student body.

20 Public colleges, public dollars: Higher education in New Hampshire 16 In the past decade, the Community College System of New Hampshire has also witnessed a number of changes in enrollment (see Figure 18). In , the CCSNH served more than 24,000 students. By , that number increased to more than 26,700 students an increase of more than 11 percent. But much like the University System, total enrollment is down from its peak. In , the number of students served by the CCSNH peaked at 27,700 students. In , enrollment decreased 3.7 percent over the prior year. Figure 18: CCSNH enrollment trends are similar to USNH enrollment trends 12 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 WMCC RVCC LRCC NCC GBCC MCC NHTI CCSNH Total Students Served, Source: Community College System of New Hampshire. There is another important trend at play here: the steady decline in New Hampshire s primary and secondary student population over the past decade. As Figure 19 shows, the number of students in New Hampshire s schools (including public, private and charter schools) has been steadily declining since , from a high of 231,500 students that year to 206,400 students in the last school year. 12 Enrollment/Students served include credit and non-credit students, full and part-time students, and Running Start students. It does not include students who take part in company training programs. Figures for are not finalized.

21 Public colleges, public dollars: Higher education in New Hampshire 17 Figure 19: NH's student population has been steadily falling for the past decade Annual enrollment in NH schools, to (including public, private& charter schools) 250, , , , % decline since , Source: New Hampshire Department of Education As this shrinking student population works its way through the education system and moves on to post-secondary education choices, it will mean fewer in-state students available for New Hampshire s public higher education systems. The response to that trend could take several forms, including an increased reliance on out-of-state students (though most other northeastern states, from which New Hampshire draws the majority of its out-of-state students, are seeing similar declines in student populations); a deliberate shrinking of the student bodies of USNH and CCSNH; or a coordinated effort to boost college-going rates among New Hampshire high school graduates. Whatever the response, policymakers should plan for this shift and the possible implications for higher education in the state. A recent analysis by the Lumina Foundation concluded that, at current rates of high school graduation and college-going among New Hampshire students, the state will see between 400 and 1,000 fewer college degrees awarded annually through the year 2025, assuming continued declines in student population. 13 This decrease in college graduates will leave fewer skilled workers to replace the state s retiring workforce over the next years, absent an increase in inmigration rates of educated newcomers to New Hampshire. Therefore, an education strategy that aims to increase both high school graduation rates and college enrollments will have significant impact on New Hampshire s higher education and workforce needs. 13 See

22 Public colleges, public dollars: Higher education in New Hampshire 18 The student experience Sharp changes in tuition, enrollment rates, and other data points can have a significant impact on the educational experience of individual students. Measuring the student experience is important because some of the campus-based impacts of financial changes such as average class size and student-to-faculty ratios may also act as an indicator for changes in education quality. Maintaining a high standard of quality is important for keeping universities and colleges competitive and respected within the academic and business communities. The student-to-faculty ratio is one measure of the student experience. This ratio measures the percentage of full-time students to the percentage of full-time instructional faculty. In recent years, the student to faculty ratio at all USNH institutions has fluctuated (see Table 2). At the University of New Hampshire, the student to faculty ratio increased from 2006 to At Plymouth State University and Keene State College, the student to faculty ratio fluctuated over that period but ended up lower in 2012 than in Table 2: Student to faculty ratio varies by college UNH PSU KSC to 1 19 to 1 18 to to 1 17 to 1 18 to to 1 20 to 1 19 to to 1 16 to 1 18 to to 1 16 to 1 18 to to 1 16 to 1 17 to to 1 17 to 1 17 to 1 Source: Common Data Set, Plymouth Office of Institutional Research and Keene Office of Institutional Research. Instructional faculty numbers can also be used to measure the student experience. Between 2003 and 2012, the number of full-time instructional faculty increased at most USNH institutions (see Table 3). The exceptions were UNH and UNH-Manchester. The decrease in the number of full-time instructional faculty at UNH and UNH-M occurred even as full-time degree candidate enrollment was increasing. Table 3: Full-time instructional faculty numbers decreasing at some USNH colleges Fall UNH UNH-M PSU KSC GSC Source: USNH Fact Book FY2004 FY2013. Between 2003 and 2012, the number of part-time instructional faculty also increased at most USNH institutions (see Table 4). The greatest increase in the number of part-time

23 Public colleges, public dollars: Higher education in New Hampshire 19 faculty occurred at Plymouth State University. In 2003, Plymouth had 180 part-time instructional faculty. By 2012, that figure had increased to 259 part-time instructional faculty. Granite State College was the only USNH institution to see a decrease in the number of part-time faculty. Table 4: Part-time instructional faculty numbers increasing at most USNH colleges Fall UNH UNH-M PSU KSC GSC Source: USNH Fact Book FY2004 FY2013. Another measure of the student experience is average class size. Four-year data from the University of New Hampshire shows that the average class size has increased. In 2008, the earliest year in which data is available, the average class size was 32.4 students. By 2011, the average class size at UNH had increased to 35 students. Figure 20 further highlights changes to class size at UNH over time. During the academic year, about 21 percent of undergraduate courses at the University of New Hampshire had fewer than 10 students, about 29 percent of courses had between 10 and 19 students and less than 4 percent of courses had more than 100 students. By comparison, during the academic year, the number of undergraduate courses with fewer than 10 students had shrunk to less than 16 percent. The number of courses with between 10 and 19 students shrank to about 25 percent. Meanwhile, the number of courses with more than 100 students increased to more than 6 percent.

24 Public colleges, public dollars: Higher education in New Hampshire 20 Figure 20: Class sizes are growing larger at UNH University of New Hampshire Undergraduate Class Size, Percentage of Classes 38.0% 36.0% 34.0% 32.0% 30.0% 28.0% 26.0% 24.0% 22.0% 20.0% 18.0% 16.0% 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 2-9 Students Students Students Students 100+ Students Source: UNH Common Data Set Student debt On the national stage, mounting student debt has become a critical policy issue. The total amount of student debt held by U.S. graduates is more than $1 trillion, with almost 40 million Americans carrying student debt. 14 Today, the average college student graduates with more than $24,000 in student debt, and that number is climbing each year. Student loan delinquencies are also on the rise, indicating that more students are taking on debt that they cannot afford to pay back. 15 According to current estimates, the average New Hampshire college student graduates with more than $32,000 in student loan debt. 16 If the cost of attendance continues to 14 Source: Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, Student Loan Affordability: Analysis of Public Input on Impact and Solutions, May 8, Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York Fed Quarterly Report Shows Student Loan Debt Continues to Grow. May 31, Source: Institute for College Access & Success, The Project on Student Debt:

25 Public colleges, public dollars: Higher education in New Hampshire 21 increase at current rates and loans continue to be the primary source of financial aid, student debt will likely continue to climb higher. It is important to note, not all students pay the published cost of attendance or sticker price. Institutional aid and scholarships, federal and private grants, can all make the actual cost or net price paid by the student considerably lower than the sticker price. But not all students qualify for aid and those who do qualify may not have all of their financial need met through institutional aid or federal grants. Often, students who do not qualify for grant aid, or those who do not have all their financial need met through grant aid, rely on federal or private loans to cover their educational expenses. Between 2007 and 2012, average student debt for in-state students at all USNH institutions increased by about $7,000 (see Figure 21). In 2007, the average in-state student graduated with about $23,000 in student debt. By 2012, the average in-state student graduated with more than $30,000 in student debt. Figure 21: Average student debt increasing at all USNH institutions 17 Average Undergraduate Debt Load for In-State Students by Institution, $35,000 $30,000 $25,000 UNH KSC PSU $20,000 $15,000 $10,000 $5,000 $ Source: UNH, Keene, and Plymouth Office of Institutional Research. The default rate on student loans is also on the rise. The default rate is calculated using a cohort model based on the percentage of borrowers who enter repayment during a particular fiscal year and default or meet other specified conditions prior to the end of the second following fiscal year. Nationally, the current three-year cohort default rate is 13.4 percent. In general, the current three-year default rates within the Community College System are lower than the national average (see Figure 22). Of the seven colleges within the CCSNH, only White 17 Data may not include all private loans that students or their parents take out. Only includes loan information received or reported to the institution.

26 Public colleges, public dollars: Higher education in New Hampshire 22 Mountains Community College and Lakes Region Community College have default rates higher than the national average. 16.0% Figure 22: Cohort default rate varies across CCSNH Three-Year Official Cohort Default Rates, % 14.9% 15.5% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 10.0% 10.7% 10.8% 11.1% 12.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% NHTI RVCC MCC GBCC NCC WMCC LRCC Source: National Center for Education Statistics, Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System, College Navigator. The three-year default rates for all USNH institutions are below the national average (see Figure 23). At the University of New Hampshire, three-year default rates for the 2009 cohort stood at 2.5 percent. At Plymouth, three-year default rates are 3.7 percent. The three-year default rate at Keene is slightly higher at 5.5 percent. Granite State College has the highest three-year default rate in the state s University System, with a default rate of 11.5 percent. Figure 23: Cohort default rate varies across USNH Three-Year Official Cohort Default Rates, % 12.0% 10.0% 11.5% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 5.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.7% 0.0 UNH Plymouth Keene Granite State Source: National Center for Education Statistics, Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System, College Navigator.

27 Public colleges, public dollars: Higher education in New Hampshire 23 Student success There are few standardized measures that can accurately assess student success and student outcomes. Some colleges and universities may use surveys to collect data on students and graduates, but small sampling sizes can limit the use of the data. 18 The two standard measures that are often used to evaluate student success are retention rates (the percent of student who remain in school after their first year) and graduation rates. Although these measures do not offer a full understanding of student success, they can be useful for providing some context. The retention rate is defined as the percentage of first-year students who enter an institution in a given year who are still at the institution the following year. The retention rate can indicate a number of things, including the students preparedness for success within the college environment and the institution s ability to provide assistance to students who may be struggling financial, academically or emotionally. Since the early 2000s, retention rates within the USNH have fluctuated somewhat (see Figure 24). In 2004, the retention rate for bachelor s degree seeking freshman at the University of New Hampshire was 85 percent. In 2011, the retention rate increased to 86 percent. In 2004, the retention rate at Plymouth State University was 76 percent. In 2011, it decreased to 74 percent. In 2004, the retention rate at Keene State College was 77 percent. In 2011, the retention rate also decreased slightly, to 76 percent. Figure 24: Retention rates vary by institution Retention Rates for Bachelor's Degree Seeking Freshman, % 90% 85% 80% 75% 70% 65% 60% 55% 50% UNH PSU KSC Source: USNH Strategic Indicators to The University of New Hampshire conducts an in-depth survey of graduating seniors. The survey asks everything from quality of education received, to workforce preparedness, to post-college plans. The sample size in 2012 was 302 students. In , UNH awarded more than 2,600 bachelor s degrees. The survey can be found at:

28 Public colleges, public dollars: Higher education in New Hampshire 24 While retention rates for first-time, first-year USNH students have fluctuated only one to two percentage points, the retention rates for Community College System students who transfer to the University System have generally increased by about five to ten percentage points (see Figure 25). The retention rate for CCSNH transfers to Plymouth State University increased from 75 percent in 2004 to 85 percent in The retention rate for CCSNH transfers to Keene State College increased from 64 percent in 2004 to 72 percent in Figure 25: Retention rates for CCSNH transfers to USNH generally improving Retention Rates for CCSNH Transfer Students, % 90% 85% 80% 75% 70% 65% 60% 55% 50% UNH PSU KSC GSC Source: USNH Strategic Indicators to Another measure of student success is the graduation rate. Graduation rates are calculated using a cohort model based on the number of first-time, full-time degree candidates who enter an institution during a specific year. The rate is determined based on the percentage of students in the cohort who graduate within six years (or 150 percent of typical time needed to graduate). In general, six-year graduation rates within the University System are improving (see Figure 26). For students who entered the University of New Hampshire from 2000 to 2006, graduation rates have increased from 74 percent for the Fall 2000 cohort to 77 percent for the Fall 2006 cohort. The graduation rate at Keene State College increased from 54 percent for the Fall 2000 cohort to 62 percent for the Fall 2006 cohort. The six-year graduation rate has fallen at Plymouth State University, from 57 percent among the Fall 2000 cohort to 55 percent among the Fall 2006 cohort.

29 Public colleges, public dollars: Higher education in New Hampshire 25 Figure 26: USNH six-year graduation rates generally improving Six-Year Graduation Rate for First-Time, 80% Full-Time Bachelor's Degree Students, % 70% 65% 60% 55% 50% 45% 40% UNH PSU KSC Source: USNH Strategic Indicators to A more complete picture of student success would likely include data on graduates success in the workforce. The collection of standardized data on average graduate salaries, number of graduates in full-time employment within six-months of graduation, number of graduates employed full-time in their preferred field, in addition to other measures, may help provide a more accurate understanding of student success and a college s ability to prepare students for the workforce. State appropriations to higher education Historically, New Hampshire has funded its two public higher education systems at the lowest levels in the country. This is the case whether state support is measured in terms of per-capita spending, as a share of state personal income, or on a per-student basis. In recent years, state fiscal support has further declined, spurred in part by fiscal pressures from the Great Recession. In FY2012, total state fiscal support to higher education fell by almost 40 percent from the previous year. Since then, state support for public higher education has increased with total appropriations for FY2014 up more than 25 percent over the prior year. Yet total state appropriations for both FY2014 and FY2015 remain below the level set in FY2008. When total state appropriations are broken down by system, we see differences in the state funding trends for the state University System and the Community College System of New Hampshire. The state appropriation to CCSNH increased from about $32 million to $40 million for FY2014 a 25 percent increase over the prior year (see Figure 27). Aside from a drop in funding in FY , CCSNH appropriations have seen steady increases for much of the past decade. Meanwhile, while the state appropriation to the USNH increased from $54.6 million in FY2013 to $69 million in FY2014 (a 26 percent increase), funding remains below the FY2005 level.

30 Public colleges, public dollars: Higher education in New Hampshire 26 The recent cut in funding for each system varied significantly, as well. Of the total appropriation in FY2012, the USNH received about $51.6 million a loss of more than 48 percent from the previous year s appropriation. The appropriation to the CCSNH was reduced to $31.6 million a loss of about 16 percent from the previous year s appropriation. Figure 27: State Appropriations to USNH and CCSNH 19 $110,000,000 State Support for Higher Education by System, FY2004-FY2015 $100,000,000 $90,000,000 $80,000,000 $70,000,000 $60,000,000 $50,000,000 USNH CCSNH $40,000,000 $30,000,000 $20,000,000 $10,000,000 $ Source: Office of Legislative Budget Assistant. State support: How does New Hampshire compare? Even before the funding cuts in FY , New Hampshire consistently ranked below the U.S. average in state support for public higher education, both per capita and per $1,000 in personal income (see Figure 28 and Figure 29). In FY2013, the U.S. average state support for higher education was $230 per capita and $5.42 per $1,000 in personal income. 20 In New Hampshire, state support for higher education was almost 75 percent lower, at $65 per capita and $1.38 per $1,000 in personal income. To be on par with the 19 Data reflects trends in current dollars; not adjusted for inflation. The slight drop in appropriation amounts for FY2010 include the USNH decision to return $25 million back to the state, to help fill a gap in the General Fund, in exchange for the state agreeing to bond the same amount in USNH maintenance projects. 20 Because of difference in the ratio of 4-year to 2-year students from state to state, such national comparisons of public support may be inexact, because of the differing costs associated with educating students at the two types of institutions. Still, when enrollment mix is accounted for, New Hampshire s ratio of 4-year and 2-year enrollments almost exactly matches the national ratio. See State Higher Education Executive Officers Association, State Higher Education Finance, FY2012,