Gil Morales & Dr. Chris Kacher Managing Directors MoKa Investors, LLC
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1 American Association of Individual Investors Los Angeles Chapter September 11, 2010 Skirball Center Gil Morales & Dr. Chris Kacher Managing Directors MoKa Investors, LLC
2 The Parabolic Nineties
3 The Chop n Slop 2000 s
4 Basic Premise of the Pocket Pivot Institutional Buying creates new-high base breakouts, but we also know that institutional buying occurs within consolidations and during uptrends. This buying within consolidations and uptrends should, theoretically, have its particular, identifying price and volume signature. The pocket pivot describes that signature, and provides a clear, buyable pivot point, or pocket pivot buy point. Pocket pivots also provide a tool for buying leading stocks as they progress higher within uptrends, extended from a prior base or price consolidation.
5 Pocket pivots are just a way to identify institutional investors footprints within a base or an uptrend.
6 Ten Rules for Pocket Pivots 1. As with base breakouts, proper pocket pivots should emerge within or out of constructive basing patterns. 2. The stock's fundamentals should be strong, i.e., excellent earnings, sales, pretax margins, ROE, strong leader in its space, etc. 3. The day's volume should be larger than the highest down volume day over the prior 10 days. 4. If the pocket pivot occurs in an uptrend after the stock has broken out, it should act constructively around its 10-dma. It can undercut its 10-dma as long as it shows resilience by showing volume that is greater than the highest down volume day over the prior 10 days. 5. Pocket pivots sometimes coincide with base breakouts or with gap ups. This can be thought of as added upside power should this occur. 6. Do not buy pocket pivots if the overall chart formation is in a multi-month downtrend (5 months or longer). It is best to wait for the rounding part of the base to form before buying. 7. Do not buy pocket pivots if the stock is under a critical moving average such as the 50-dma or 200- dma. If well under its 50-dma, and getting support near the 200-dma, it can be bought provided the base is constructive. 8. Do not buy pocket pivots if the stock formed a 'V' where it sells off hard down through the 10-dma or 50-dma then shoots straight back up in a 'V' formation. Such formations are failure prone. 9. Avoid buying pocket pivots that occur after wedging patterns. 10. Some pocket pivots may occur after the stock is extended from the base. If the pivot occurs right near its 10-dma, it can be bought, otherwise it is extended and should be avoided. Give the 10-dma the chance to catch up to the stock, where the stock would consolidate for a few days, before buying such a pocket pivot.
7 Ten Rules for Pocket Pivots 1. As with base breakouts, proper pocket pivots should emerge within or out of constructive basing patterns. 2. Fundamentals: The stock's fundamentals should be strong, i.e., excellent earnings, sales, pretax margins, ROE, strong leader in its space, etc. 3. Volume Signature: The day's volume should be larger than the highest down volume day over the prior 10 days. 4. If the pocket pivot occurs in an uptrend after the stock has broken out, it should act constructively around its 10-dma. It can undercut its 10-dma as long as it shows resilience by showing volume that is greater than the highest down volume day over the prior 10 days. 5. Pocket pivots sometimes coincide with base breakouts or with gap ups. This can be thought of as added upside power should this occur. 6. Do not buy pocket pivots if the overall chart formation is in a multi-month downtrend (5 months or longer). It is best to wait for the rounding part of the base to form before buying. 7. Do not buy pocket pivots if the stock is under a critical moving average such as the 50-dma or 200- dma. If well under its 50-dma, and getting support near the 200-dma, it can be bought provided the base is constructive. 8. Do not buy pocket pivots if the stock formed a 'V' where it sells off hard down through the 10-dma or 50-dma then shoots straight back up in a 'V' formation. Such formations are failure prone. 9. Avoid buying pocket pivots that occur after wedging patterns. 10. Some pocket pivots may occur after the stock is extended from the base. If the pivot occurs right near its 10-dma, it can be bought, otherwise it is extended and should be avoided. Give the 10-dma the chance to catch up to the stock, where the stock would consolidate for a few days, before buying such a pocket pivot.
8 Pocket Pivot Example #1 RINO International (RINO) September 2009
9 Ten Rules for Pocket Pivots 1. As with base breakouts, proper pocket pivots should emerge within or out of constructive basing patterns. 2. The stock's fundamentals should be strong, i.e., excellent earnings, sales, pretax margins, ROE, strong leader in its space, etc. 3. The day's volume should be larger than the highest down volume day over the prior 10 days. 4. Continuation pockets: If the pocket pivot occurs in an uptrend after the stock has broken out, it should act constructively around its 10-dma. It can undercut its 10-dma as long as it shows resilience by showing volume that is greater than the highest down volume day over the prior 10 days. 5. Pocket pivots sometimes coincide with base breakouts or with gap ups. This can be thought of as added upside power should this occur. 6. Do not buy pocket pivots if the overall chart formation is in a multi-month downtrend (5 months or longer). It is best to wait for the rounding part of the base to form before buying. 7. Do not buy pocket pivots if the stock is under a critical moving average such as the 50-dma or 200- dma. If well under its 50-dma, and getting support near the 200-dma, it can be bought provided the base is constructive. 8. Do not buy pocket pivots if the stock formed a 'V' where it sells off hard down through the 10-dma or 50-dma then shoots straight back up in a 'V' formation. Such formations are failure prone. 9. Avoid buying pocket pivots that occur after wedging patterns. 10. Some pocket pivots may occur after the stock is extended from the base. If the pivot occurs right near its 10-dma, it can be bought, otherwise it is extended and should be avoided. Give the 10-dma the chance to catch up to the stock, where the stock would consolidate for a few days, before buying such a pocket pivot.
10 Pocket Pivot Example #2 Netflix (NFLX), March/April 2009
11 Ten Rules for Pocket Pivots 1. As with base breakouts, proper pocket pivots should emerge within or out of constructive basing patterns. 2. The stock's fundamentals should be strong, i.e., excellent earnings, sales, pretax margins, ROE, strong leader in its space, etc. 3. The day's volume should be larger than the highest down volume day over the prior 10 days. 4. If the pocket pivot occurs in an uptrend after the stock has broken out, it should act constructively around its 10-dma. It can undercut its 10dma as long as it shows resilience by showing volume that is greater than the highest down volume day over the prior 10 days. 5. Power pocket pivots: Pocket pivots sometimes coincide with base breakouts or with gap ups. This can be thought of as added upside power should this occur. 6. Do not buy pocket pivots if the overall chart formation is in a multi-month downtrend (5 months or longer). It is best to wait for the rounding part of the base to form before buying. 7. Do not buy pocket pivots if the stock is under a critical moving average such as the 50-dma or 200- dma. If well under its 50-dma, and getting support near the 200-dma, it can be bought provided the base is constructive. 8. Do not buy pocket pivots if the stock formed a 'V' where it sells off hard down through the 10dma or 50-dma then shoots straight back up in a 'V' formation. Such formations are failure prone. 9. Avoid buying pocket pivots that occur after wedging patterns. 10. Some pocket pivots may occur after the stock is extended from the base. If the pivot occurs right near its 10-dma, it can be bought, otherwise it is extended and should be avoided. Give the 10-dma the chance to catch up to the stock, where the stock would consolidate for a few days, before buying such a pocket pivot.
12 Pocket Pivot Example #3 Valeant Pharmaceuticals (VRX) in 2009
13 Ten Rules for Pocket Pivots 1. As with base breakouts, proper pocket pivots should emerge within or out of constructive basing patterns. 2. The stock's fundamentals should be strong, i.e., excellent earnings, sales, pretax margins, ROE, strong leader in its space, etc. 3. The day's volume should be larger than the highest down volume day over the prior 10 days. 4. If the pocket pivot occurs in an uptrend after the stock has broken out, it should act constructively around its 10-dma. It can undercut its 10dma as long as it shows resilience by showing volume that is greater than the highest down volume day over the prior 10 days. 5. Pocket pivots sometimes coincide with base breakouts or with gap ups. This can be thought of as added upside power should this occur. 6. Bad Pockets: Do not buy pocket pivots if the overall chart formation is in a multi-month downtrend (5 months or longer). It is best to wait for the rounding part of the base to form before buying. 7. Bad Pockets: Do not buy pocket pivots if the stock is under a critical moving average such as the 50-dma or 200-dma. If well under its 50-dma, and getting support near the 200-dma, it can be bought provided the base is constructive. 8. Do not buy pocket pivots if the stock formed a 'V' where it sells off hard down through the 10-dma or 50-dma then shoots straight back up in a 'V' formation. Such formations are failure prone. 9. Avoid buying pocket pivots that occur after wedging patterns. 10. Some pocket pivots may occur after the stock is extended from the base. If the pivot occurs right near its 10-dma, it can be bought, otherwise it is extended and should be avoided. Give the 10-dma the chance to catch up to the stock, where the stock would consolidate for a few days, before buying such a pocket pivot.
14 Pocket Pivot Example #4 Research in Motion (RIMM) in November 2008
15 Ten Rules for Pocket Pivots 1. As with base breakouts, proper pocket pivots should emerge within or out of constructive basing patterns. 2. The stock's fundamentals should be strong, i.e., excellent earnings, sales, pretax margins, ROE, strong leader in its space, etc. 3. The day's volume should be larger than the highest down volume day over the prior 10 days. 4. If the pocket pivot occurs in an uptrend after the stock has broken out, it should act constructively around its 10-dma. It can undercut its 10dma as long as it shows resilience by showing volume that is greater than the highest down volume day over the prior 10 days. 5. Pocket pivots sometimes coincide with base breakouts or with gap ups. This can be thought of as added upside power should this occur. 6. Do not buy pocket pivots if the overall chart formation is in a multi-month downtrend (5 months or longer). It is best to wait for the rounding part of the base to form before buying. 7. Do not buy pocket pivots if the stock is under a critical moving average such as the 50-dma or 200- dma. If well under its 50-dma, and getting support near the 200-dma, it can be bought provided the base is constructive. 8. Bad Pocket: Do not buy pocket pivots if the stock formed a 'V' where it sells off hard down through the 10-dma or 50-dma then shoots straight back up in a 'V' formation. Such formations are failure prone. 9. Avoid buying pocket pivots that occur after wedging patterns. 10. Some pocket pivots may occur after the stock is extended from the base. If the pivot occurs right near its 10-dma, it can be bought, otherwise it is extended and should be avoided. Give the 10-dma the chance to catch up to the stock, where the stock would consolidate for a few days, before buying such a pocket pivot.
16 Pocket Pivot Example #5 Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) on May 12 th, 2010
17 Ten Rules for Pocket Pivots 1. As with base breakouts, proper pocket pivots should emerge within or out of constructive basing patterns. 2. The stock's fundamentals should be strong, i.e., excellent earnings, sales, pretax margins, ROE, strong leader in its space, etc. 3. The day's volume should be larger than the highest down volume day over the prior 10 days. 4. If the pocket pivot occurs in an uptrend after the stock has broken out, it should act constructively around its 10dma. It can undercut its 10dma as long as it shows resilience by showing volume that is greater than the highest down volume day over the prior 10 days. 5. Pocket pivots sometimes coincide with base breakouts or with gap ups. This can be thought of as added upside power should this occur. 6. Do not buy pocket pivots if the overall chart formation is in a multi-month downtrend (5 months or longer). It is best to wait for the rounding part of the base to form before buying. 7. Do not buy pocket pivots if the stock is under a critical moving average such as the 50-dma or 200- dma. If well under its 50-dma, and getting support near the 200-dma, it can be bought provided the base is constructive. 8. Do not buy pocket pivots if the stock formed a 'V' where it sells off hard down through the 10-dma or 50-dma then shoots straight back up in a 'V' formation. Such formations are failure prone. 9. Bad Pocket: Avoid buying pocket pivots that occur after wedging patterns. 10. Some pocket pivots may occur after the stock is extended from the base. If the pivot occurs right near its 10-dma, it can be bought, otherwise it is extended and should be avoided. Give the 10-dma the chance to catch up to the stock, where the stock would consolidate for a few days, before buying such a pocket pivot.
18 Pocket Pivot Example #6 Cree, Inc. (CREE) on May 9 th, 2006
19 Ten Rules for Pocket Pivots 1. As with base breakouts, proper pocket pivots should emerge within or out of constructive basing patterns. 2. The stock's fundamentals should be strong, i.e., excellent earnings, sales, pretax margins, ROE, strong leader in its space, etc. 3. The day's volume should be larger than the highest down volume day over the prior 10 days. 4. If the pocket pivot occurs in an uptrend after the stock has broken out, it should act constructively around its 10-dma. It can undercut its 10dma as long as it shows resilience by showing volume that is greater than the highest down volume day over the prior 10 days. 5. Pocket pivots sometimes coincide with base breakouts or with gap ups. This can be thought of as added upside power should this occur. 6. Do not buy pocket pivots if the overall chart formation is in a multi-month downtrend (5 months or longer). It is best to wait for the rounding part of the base to form before buying. 7. Do not buy pocket pivots if the stock is under a critical moving average such as the 50-dma or 200- dma. If well under its 50-dma, and getting support near the 200-dma, it can be bought provided the base is constructive. 8. Do not buy pocket pivots if the stock formed a 'V' where it sells off hard down through the 10-dma or 50-dma then shoots straight back up in a 'V' formation. Such formations are failure prone. 9. Avoid buying pocket pivots that occur after wedging patterns. 10. Continuation Pockets: Some pocket pivots may occur after the stock is extended from the base. If the pivot occurs right near its 10-dma, it can be bought, otherwise it is extended and should be avoided. Give the 10-dma the chance to catch up to the stock, where the stock would consolidate for a few days, before buying such a pocket pivot.
20 Pocket Pivot Example #7 Apple, Inc. (AAPL) September 2004
21 Use of the 10-day and 50-day moving averages in conjunction with the Pocket Pivot tool is governed by the Seven-Week Rule. 10-day = Stocks that have shown a tendency to obey or respect the 10-day moving average for at least 7 weeks in an uptrend should often be sold once the stock violates the 10-day line. 50-day = If they don t show such a tendency, then it is better to use the 50-day moving average as your guide for selling. This rule can help prevent you from selling a stock prematurely if it is simply not its nature to hold the 10-day moving average and it tends to drop below the 10-day line often. Our studies of pocket pivots indicate that a pocket pivot buy point which results in an uptrend that is shown to obey the 10-day moving average for at least 7 weeks following the initial pocket pivot should be sold upon its first violation of the 10-day line. A violation is defined as a close below the 10-day moving average followed by a move on the next day below the intraday low of the first day.
22 Putting it all Together Baidu, Inc. (BIDU) from 2/10 to 5/10
23 Netflix (NFLX) January thru May 2010
24 Apple, Inc. (AAPL) Extended. As a general rule, best to not buy. Drops below low of gap up day. Sell. Violates 50dma. Sell. Violates 10dma in 7 weeks or less. Use 50dma instead.
25 SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) September 2009 thru July 2010 Gap down on big volume. Sell. Pocket pivot point. Buy. Pocket pivot point. Buy. Violate s 50dma. Sell.
26 APPENDIX A MoKa Market Direction Model
27 MoKa Market Direction Model Buy/Neutral/Sell Signals using TYH ETF MoKa MD capitalizes on true signals. Fail-safes minimize losses on false signals % gain 3/12/09 5/14/10 S S S S B S N N S B N S N S N S B [Big Gains] B N B [Big Gains] N [Fail-safes keeps losses to a minimum] B [Big Gains]
28 The Model & the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) ETF in Buy breakouts. 2. Follow the trend. 3. Sell signals lock in profit. S B B
29 The Model during the Crash of 2008 S N S S N S S [Big Gains] B Timing Model 2008 = +40.1% vs. NASDAQ Comp = -40.5% B [Big Gains for 08] B N B
30 The Model and the NASDAQ Composite Index during the October 1997 Asian Currency Crisis S N N B[Big Gains] B B B[Big Gains]
31 The Model and the NASDAQ in A Strongly Trending Market SN S S[Big Gains] B[Big Gains] B B[Big Gains] 31
32 The Model during the Crash of October 1987 S S [Big Gains] SN S S B NASDAQ -36.8% N SS B B B [Big Gains] Timing Model 1987 = +79.8%
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