REVISITED EXPORT-LED GROWTH HYPOTHESIS FOR SELECTED EUROPEAN COUNTRIES: A PANEL HIDDEN COINTEGRATION APPROACH

Transcription

1 Ekonomeri ve İsaisik Sayı: İSTANBUL ÜNİVERSİTESİ İKTİSAT FAKÜLTESİ EKONOMETRİ VE İSTATİSTİK DERGİSİ REVISITED EXPORT-LED GROWTH HYPOTHESIS FOR SELECTED EUROPEAN COUNTRIES: A PANEL HIDDEN COINTEGRATION APPROACH Fama ZEREN Burcu KILINÇ SAVRUL 2 Absrac This paper examines he expor-led growh hypohesis in a panel of seleced European counries from 970 o 20. For his purpose, a panel hidden coinegraion es is used. Iniially, cumulaive negaive and posiive changes are consruced for each panel variable. Then he poenial panel coinegraion is examined. Our empirical resuls suppor ha here is hidden coinegraion in panel, hus we asser ha here exiss a long-erm relaionship beween economic growh and expors. Keywords: Expors, Economic Growh, Panel Daa, Hidden Coinegraion. Jel Classificaion: C33, F4. Inonu Universiy, Deparmen of Economerics, fama.zeren@inonu.edu.r 2 Çanakkale Onsekiz Mar Universiy, Deparmen of Economics, kilincburcu@homail.com

2 Ekonomeri ve İsaisik Sayı: INTRODUCTION In he Expor-Led Growh hypohesis, i has been suggesed ha he increase in expors is he main deerminan of growh. One of he bases for his hypohesis is he approach of Keynesian heory ha is associaed wih he mediaion of a foreign rade muliplier. In an open economy wih idle capaciy and unemploymen, jus as wih consumpion, invesmen, and governmen spending, he expor variable leads o an increase in he oupu as much as he muliplier. Provision of inermediae goods required for he invesmens and producion necessiaed by he growh in developing counries depends on he expor capaciies of hese counries. Failure o expor hese goods, which are complemenary in producion due o he shorage of foreign exchange, can lead o sagnaion in growh. Expors faciliae generaion of foreign exchange income required for he impor of capial goods and ha, hence, lead o growh. Expor increases will bring specializaion in producion of expor producs, and his will lead o redisribuion of resources from noncommercial secors ha are no very efficien in erms of economic growh oward expor secors ha use resources more efficienly (Bilgin and Sahbaz, 2009: 79-80). Especially in economies wih surplus labor, expors lead o an increase in employmen and real wages. Expors conribue o he aboliion of resricions on foreign exchange usually exercised by counries implemening an impor-subsiuion indusrializaion policy (Ozer and Erdogan, 2006: 96). The increase in foreign rade caused by he increase in expors no only faciliaes access o new echnologies bu also leads o developmen of new domesic echnology. These echnological advances have a posiive effec on economic growh. Wih he rise in expors, economies wih limied domesic demand increase heir producion in proporion o he level of inernaional demand. Wih he increase in foreign demand for domesic goods, a need o make new invesmens emerges and his increases domesic invesmens (Yardimcioglu and Gulmez, 203: 45-46). Expor increases compeiiveness. The increased compeiion in enering inernaional markes conribues o he spread of echnical knowledge and he formaion of an effecive 35

3 Revisied Expor-Led Growh Hypo. for Seleced Euro. Coun.: A Panel Hidden Coinegraion Approach price mechanism. Expor reveals a variey of new opporuniies wihin and ouside of he counry. I reduces labor coss. Economies wih a narrow domesic marke gain he opporuniy o enerain economies of scale in producion hrough expors. The increase in expors expands he impor capaciy, which plays an imporan role in increasing domesic producion hrough various inpus and capial goods no available in hese counries and, hence, i drives economic growh (Akas, 2009: 35-36). Afer World War II, many ideas have been pu forward o increase he growh of counries. However, in he pos-war period, posiive opinions wih regard o he exisence of a srong and posiive link beween expor and growh sared o propagae. The fixed exchange rae scheme had been abandoned since he 970s, and pro-expor policies began o be defended. In he 980s, he view of opening up o inernaional markes and increasing expors had become prominen while he coss of inward-looking growh policies and he policies proecing infan indusries had been criicized (Filizekin, Yilmaz, and Izmen, 2005: 3-9). According o Awokuse, exporaion is he engine of growh. The increase in expors as a componen of he oal demand direcly serves as a caalys for producion increase. An increase in he demand for goods expored overseas causes an increase in he amoun of overall oupu. This, in urn, causes an increase of income and employmen in he expor goods secor. Again, he increase in expors posiively affecs economic growh because i ensures efficien allocaion of resources, resuls in higher capaciy uilizaion raes, leads o economies of scale, and promoes he firms o develop echnologies o cope wih compeiion in foreign markes. Expors also provide he foreign exchange inpu necessary for he capial and he impor of inermediae goods and, hus, hey increase domesic capial formaion and consequenly he amoun of oupu (Awokuse, 2006: ). According o Panas and Vamvoukas, he expansion of expors also increases facor efficiency. Foreign rade increases no only efficiency bu also he rae of growh hrough is effec on echnology. Expors conribue o he disseminaion of echnical informaion beween counries. Foreign exchange inpu o counries is ensured by promoion of expors. This, in urn, assiss counries in increasing he impor of goods and services. Expors creae 36

4 Ekonomeri ve İsaisik Sayı:8 203 posiive economies of scale wih he opening o he world economy of domesic markes in developing counries. Expors increase he compeiiveness of counries and posiively affec he growh raes (Panas and Vamvoukas, 2002: 73). According o Ram, he effecs of expors on economic growh are even more exensive. Ram (985) examined he relaionship beween expors and economic growh using he daa of 73 counries beween 960 and 977. Opening up o inernaional markes also provides developmen in he adminisraive sense (Ram, 2003: 5-7). From he mid-960s, a growing number of counries adoped an expor-oriened indusrializaion. Such a sraegy wihin he framework of he radiional heory of free rade producion in he comparaively superior counry's secors is inended o increase expors by a variey of suppors and, hus, o achieve indusrializaion of he counry. These pracices have also been followed in Turkey since he 980s (Gundal, Azgun, 20: 4). Finally, opening o he inernaional markes and achieving he increase in expors increases compeiion in he marke. I requires domesic producers o be open o echnological advances. The mode of producion in he counry is deermined in accordance wih he level of inernaional demand. The increase in foreign rade makes i easy o access new echnologies. Again, i leads o developmen of new echnologies wihin he counry. This, in urn, increases economic growh. The increase in demand for domesic goods abroad simulaes new invesmens and leads o increases in raes of invesmen. Foreign exchange inpus provided by expor revenues play an imporan role in ensuring he balance of paymens. Furher inflow of foreign exchange o he counry also increases he impors of goods and services (Simsek, 2003: 43-44). In his sudy, he relaionship beween expors and economic growh in seleced European counries invesigaed. These counries are; Ausria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Ialy, Luxembourg, Neherlands, Porugal, Spain, Sweden, Unied Kingdom. These counries have paricipaed o he union, which was founded as he name of European Economic Communiy in 957 and hen changed o European Union in

5 Revisied Expor-Led Growh Hypo. for Seleced Euro. Coun.: A Panel Hidden Coinegraion Approach These counries expors have increased afer he paricipaion o union. The increase in expors have raised producion, division of labor, produciviy, naional income and compeiion. The increase in expors have reduced coss (Gul ve Kamacı, 202: 82). On he oher hand domesic producion in hese counries are no dependen on. The indusrial secor produces wih a small raio of impored inpus. For his reason, dependency raio of expors o impors is lower in hese counries. Raes of expors in gross domesic produc are given in he Appendix, for he counries examined in his sudy. European counries expors were affeced adversely by he crisis, such as shown in he Appendix. The 973 oil crisis sared when he members of Organizaion of Arab Peroleum Exporing Counries or he OAPEC proclaimed an oil embargo. OPEC member counries decide o raise world oil prices for increasing sources ha ener heir counries. On he oher hand he 990 oil price spike occurred in response o he Iraqi invasion of Kuwai in 990. The rise in prices had been a significan facor in he recession of he early 990s. 973 oil crisis and 990 oil price shock influenced he expors also negaively. The effecs of he 973 crisis appeared especially in 975. Finally, he financial crisis of , also known as he Global Financial Crisis affeced he expors of European counries negaively, oo. The paper is organized as follows: In he following secion, a lieraure review is presened. In secion hree, he economeric mehodology is explained. Secion four presens he daa and he empirical findings, and in he las secion, he conclusion is presened. 2. THE LITERATURE Ismail and Harjio (2003) invesigaed he causaliy beween expors and economic growh in he ASEAN counries over he period They used he Johansen coinegraion procedure es and he Granger causaliy es. Their sudy concluded ha here was coinegraion beween expor and economic growh in Indonesia and Singapore while he Granger causaliy es showed ha here was feedback or bidirecional causaliy beween expors and economic growh only in Indonesia and he Philippines. 38

6 Ekonomeri ve İsaisik Sayı:8 203 Keong e al. (2005) esed he validiy of he expor-led growh hypohesis in he Malaysian economy over he period They deeced a coinegraed relaionship beween expors and economic growh in boh he long and he shor run. Also hey found ha expors Granger-cause economic growh in he period of sudy. Kónya (2006) invesigaed he Granger causaliy beween he expors and GDP in 24 OECD counries from 960 o 997. He used a new panel daa approach based on SUR sysems and Wald ess wih counry-specific boosrap criical values. The resuls of his empirical analyses indicae one-way causaliy from expors o GDP in Belgium, Denmark, Iceland, Ireland, Ialy, New Zealand, Spain, and Sweden; one-way causaliy from GDP o expors in Ausria, France, Greece, Japan, Mexico, Norway, and Porugal; wo-way causaliy beween expors and growh in Canada, Finland, and he Neherlands; and no evidence of causaliy in eiher direcion in Ausralia, Korea, Luxembourg, Swizerland, he UK, and he USA. Furuoka (2007) esed he validiy of he expor-led growh hypohesis in hree BIMPEAGA counries: he Philippines, Indonesia, and Malaysia. He used imes series analyses and panel daa analyses. The resuls of his empirical analyses indicae ha here has been no significan relaionship beween he size of naional income and he amoun of exporaion. Purna and Sahoo (2007) aemped o examine he expor-led manufacuring and he expor-led growh hypohesis for four souh Asian counries India, Pakisan, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka-using Pedroni s panel coinegraion echnique for he period The sudy found an equilibrium relaionship beween GDP (and non-expor GDP) and expors in he long run, along wih oher variables supporing he expor-led growh hypohesis. Dash (2009) invesigaed he causal relaionship beween expor growh and economic growh in India for he pos-liberalizaion period (992[Q] 2007[Q4]). The resuls of his sudy indicae ha here exiss a long-erm relaionship beween oupu and expors, and here is a unidirecional causal relaionship running from expors o oupu growh. 39

7 Revisied Expor-Led Growh Hypo. for Seleced Euro. Coun.: A Panel Hidden Coinegraion Approach Ray (20) examined he relaionship beween expor and economic growh in India using annual daa over he period o He used he Granger causaliy and he Johansen coinegraion es. He found ha here was a long-run equilibrium relaionship beween he wo variables. He also confirmed he presence of bidirecional causaliy ha ran from economic growh o expor and vice versa. Mohsen and Firouzjaee (20) invesigaed he Granger causaliy relaionship beween non-oil expor and economic growh for 73 developing counries during he period They used he panel coinegraion analysis for ha purpose. They found ha here is bidirecional long-run causaliy beween expor and GDP growh. Waihe e al. (20) esed he expor-led growh hypohesis for Mexico over he period The evidence from heir sudy offers suppor for he hypohesis in he shor run, bu he long-run resuls sugges an inverse relaionship beween expors and GDP. Seabra and Galimberi (202) sudied he expor-led growh hypohesis using he daa of 72 counries for he period For his purpose, hey used a panel hreshold regression. The resuls obained from he empirical findings of his sudy give suppor o he expor-led growh hypohesis. Faridi (202) invesigaed he conribuion of expors o economic growh in Pakisan for he period He employed he Johansen co-inegraion echnique. The findings of his sudy show ha he agriculural expors have a negaive and significan effec on he economic growh. Also he found ha here was bidirecional causaliy beween agriculural expors and real GDP. Chang e al. (203) examined he causal relaionship beween expors and growh in nine provinces of Souh Africa for he period They used he panel causaliy analysis ha accouns for cross-secion dependency and heerogeneiy across regions. They found no causaliy in any direcion beween economic growh and expors for he majoriy of he provinces. 40

8 Ekonomeri ve İsaisik Sayı: ECONOMETRIC METHODOLOGY In his sudy, we esed he validiy of expor-led growh hypohesis. For empirical analyses, we used he panel hidden coinegraion es inroduced by Haemi-J(20). The hidden coinegraion concep was iniially developed by Granger and Yoon for ime series analysis. Haemi-J adoped Granger and Yoon(2002) s hidden coinegraion es for panel daa. This es deermines wheher he coinegraion is hidden in panel or no and, hus, separaes he impac of negaive and posiive shocks in he variables. He considered he following variables o be inegraed he firs degree: y x i, i, = y = x i, ei, = yi,0 i, ei2, = xi,0 j= j= e e i, j i2, j These variables are denoed by recursive approach. i =,2,..., m and denoe he number of cross-secion unis. e is he error erm ha is assumed o be a whie noise process. The posiive shocks for each panel variable are defined as follows: e = Max ( e,0) i, i,, e = Max( e,0) i2, i2,. The negaive shocks of each panel variable are: e = Min i, i, ( e,0), e = Min( e,0) i2, i2,. The wo poenial panel coinegraion beween y and x can be defined as: α () y i, = i β i xi, ei, 4

9 Revisied Expor-Led Growh Hypo. for Seleced Euro. Coun.: A Panel Hidden Coinegraion Approach α (2) y i, = i β i xi, ei, x In () and (2) i, = xi,0 ei2, j. If j= y i i, = yi,0 ei, j, xi = xi,0 j=, ei2, j, yi, = yi,0 ei, j and j= j= e, in () is saionary, hen he posiive cumulaive shocks are coinegraed in he panel. Also, if e, in (2) is saionary, hen he negaive cumulaive shocks i are coinegraed in he panel. To es wheher e, as well as i e, are saionary or no, Haemi-J (20) suggesed he i augmened Dickey-Fuller (ADF) es for is simpliciy. Also, he suggesed ha he oher es available in he lieraure can be used for his purpose. He considered he following ADF es equaion for esing coinegraion in (): k e i, = ei, γ i ei, vi, l= ρ (3) where l denoes he opimal lag order which is deermined by minimizing an informaion crierion. The null hypohesis of no coinegraion beween he posiive componens is as follows: H 0 : ρ =. To es he null hypohesis, he suggesed he following es saisic based on he resuls provided by Kao (999). ADF = ρ σ 2 0v 2 v 2σ σ v 6m 2σ 3σ 0σ 2 v 2 0v 0v (4) 42

10 Ekonomeri ve İsaisik Sayı:8 203 where is he -saisic for he parameer ρ ρ in (3). The variance is σ e, e e, e2 σ v = σ and he long-run variance is e 2 0v = σ 0e 2 σ σ e2 0e2 esimaion of he variance-covariance for σ e i, σ. Le wi =. The ei2, w i and he long-run variance-covariance marix is given by Haemi-J (20). The coinegraion beween negaive componens is deermined by a similar process. 4. DATA To invesigae he validiy of he expor-led growh hypohesis, we used he expors of goods and services wih consan 2,000 US$ (EX hereafer) and GDP per capia daa wih consan 2,000 US$ (PGDP hereafer). The daa used in he paper are sourced from he World Developmen Indicaors (WDI) provided by he World Bank (WB). All variables are employed wih heir naural logarihms. We consider 5 seleced European counries namely, Ausria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Ialy, Luxembourg, Neherlands, Porugal, Spain, Sweden, Unied Kingdom for he period wih annual daa. These counries have been seleced according o he availabiliy of daa. 5. EMPIRICAL FINDINGS We invesigaed he expor-led growh hypohesis using he panel hidden coinegraion approach. According o his es, iniially he posiive cumulaive shocks and he negaive cumulaive shocks are deermined for each variable. Then he poenial panel coinegraion is esed. The variables should be non-saionary for he coinegraion relaionship. Then he coinegraion relaionship beween hese non-saionary variables is invesigaed. Haemi-J (20) used he lm Pesaran and Shin (2003 panel uni roo es in order o invesigae uni roo hypohesis. I was indicaed ha oher uni roo ess could also be used. He also used Kao (999) coinegraion es in order o invesigae he coinegraion relaionship. We used he same ess in parallel wih he sudy of Haemi-J (20). Uni roo es resuls of he posiive cumulaive shocks and he negaive cumulaive shocks of he variables are given in Table. 43

11 Revisied Expor-Led Growh Hypo. for Seleced Euro. Coun.: A Panel Hidden Coinegraion Approach Table : The Resuls of Im, Pesaran, and Shin Panel Uni Roo Tess Variables H 0 : I( ) H 0 : I( 2) H : I( 0) H : I( ) EX GDP EX GDP Noe: The values in able are p values As can be seen in Table, hese posiive and negaive componens of EX and GDP are non-saionary. Thus, he nex naural sep is o es for coinegraion in order o avoid spurious resuls. GDP is described as a funcion of expor, which is presened in he following model. GDP i = 0 βex i β ε i The resuls of he coinegraion ess are presened in Table 2. Variables In The Model ( EX ) Table 2: The Resuls of Kao Panel Coinegraion Tess H H 0 : I : I GDP, ( EX ) (0.000) GDP, ( EX ) (0.000) GDP, ( EX ) (0.004) GDP, Noe: The values in he parenheses indicae he p values. (0.000) ( ) ( 0) 44

12 Ekonomeri ve İsaisik Sayı:8 203 Resuls from Table 2 indicae ha he null of no coinegraion is rejeced by all es saisics. Thus, he resuls sugges ha here is a long-run relaionship beween expor and GDP. The effec of expors on growh is based on he relaionship beween foreign rade and economic growh. Inermediae and invesmen goods expors in paricular have imporan effecs on he economic growh. The increase in expors leads o he shif of resources o areas wih comparaive compeiive advanages. Similarly, employmen increases in secors wih increasing expors and posiive economies of scale are creaed. In oher words, he increase in expors has direc posiive effecs on developmen by means of increasing naional income. Opening hese secors o foreign compeiion increases he efficiency (Ersungur, Noyan, and Yalman 2009: 83). 6. CONCLUSION In his sudy, he exisence of he expor-led growh hypohesis has been analyzed for 5 seleced European counries during he period. We used he panel hidden coinegraion es inroduced by Haemi-J (20). This es invesigaes he presence of a hidden coinegraion relaionship. Iniially, we esablished he cumulaive posiive and negaive shocks for expor and growh variables. We invesigaed he coinegraion beween cumulaive posiive and negaive componens. Empirical resuls show ha here is a coinegraion relaionship beween hese componens. Therefore, we conclude ha here exiss a long-erm relaionship beween economic growh and expors. The amoun of foreign exchange rises wih he increasing of expors ha enering he counry. On he oher hand he impors are dependen on he amoun of foreign exchange in he counry. Producion in developed counries is no oo dependen on impors. Bu domesic producion in developing counries are dependen on impors. Therefore, mosly he foreign exchanges in developed counries are no used for impor. For his reason, foreign exchange income increases naional income and he growh. 45

13 Revisied Expor-Led Growh Hypo. for Seleced Euro. Coun.: A Panel Hidden Coinegraion Approach One of he imporan aims of he inegraion of he European Union is o furher grow he marke operaing beween he member saes hrough foreign rade. In his sudy as well, i was revealed ha he expor, which is one of he applicaions of foreign rade, has a posiive effec on long-erm growh. In oher words, along wih he process of expansion, he expors have a significan posiive impac on economic growh of 5 EU counries. Aferwards, hese counries examined in his sudy were joined he European Union. As one of he sages for becoming inegraed, six EU counries have signed he Cusoms Union agreemen. They have reduced he cusoms ariff beween he GB and hem gradually and finally lowered he ariff o zero. Wih he aboliion of cusoms ariffs in an EU counry, he goods ha are subjec o cusoms have enered ha counry a a lower price, and his has led o an increase of expors in he counry of origin of hose goods. In economic unions wih deepening inegraion, he economic growh of member saes is affeced posiively by his process. Therefore, he inegraion has expanded over he years by he joining of he UK, Ireland, and Denmark in 973, Greece in 98, Spain and Porugal in 986, Sweden, Finland, and Ausria in 994, Cenral and Easern European counries in 993, and 0 new counries in As was highlighed before he expor, which is one of he foreign rade iems of he member saes, has significanly been posiively affeced from he expansion process. In oher words, i has increased wih he EU's ransiion ino he Common Marke implemenaion in 993, i.e., free circulaion of goods, services, people, and capial wihin he union wihou any inerference. EU counries were able o expand heir narrow domesic markes hrough expors. The increase in expors has led o an increase in producion and revenue ha has resuled in increased economic growh. Growh in he EU counries in general is due o expors; domesic demand is unable o change drasically. Wih he free circulaion of goods, services, people, and capial wihin he Union, labor coss have fallen, and his reduced he prices of he goods. As a resul, foreign rade raes have changed in favor of he EU counries. The increase in foreign demand for domesic goods has provided fas simulaion of invesmens ha will increase producion. Hence, expors affec economic growh in he long erm. 46

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17 Revisied Expor-Led Growh Hypo. for Seleced Euro. Coun.: A Panel Hidden Coinegraion Approach Appendix Table A: Expors of goods and services (% of GDP) for seleced European counries Counries Ausria Belgium Denmark Finland France Germany Greece Ireland Ialy Luxembourg Neherlands Porugal Spain Sweeden Unied K Counries Ausria Belgium Denmark Finland France Germany Greece Ireland Ialy Luxembourg Neherlands Porugal Spain Sweeden Unied K

18 Ekonomeri ve İsaisik Sayı:8 203 Counries Ausria Belgium Denmark Finland France Germany Greece Ireland Ialy Luxembourg Neherlands Porugal Spain Sweeden Unied K Counries Ausria Belgium Denmark Finland France Germany Greece Ireland Ialy Luxembourg Neherlands Porugal Spain Sweeden Unied K