SURETY PERSPECTIVE ON THE CONSTRUCTION MARKET David M. Finkelstein June 2014
Table of Contents Surety Results Market Situation Contractor Results Surety Perspective for 2014 & 2015 Conclusion 1
SURETY RESULTS 2
Surety Results Top 5 writers account for about 50% of industry-wide premium Gross written premium has declined from its peak in 2008 by an annual average of.76% 2008 GWP: $5.5B 2011 GWP: $5.2B Surety results driven by underwriting not expense management Surety is among the most profitable sectors in recent years but... 3
Surety Results Surety Industry Results 2011 GWP 2011 Loss Ratio 2012 GWP 2012 Loss Ratio 2013 GWP 2013 Loss Ratio Top 5 Sureties $2.7B 3.1% $2.5B 14.2% $2.6B 13.9% 11-20 745M 32.7% 732M 49.5% 751M 21.4% Balance Top 100 2.5B 19% 2.4B 29.1% 2.5B 18.7% Source: SFAA Contract market results have remained in an acceptable range Reasons for the differing results Top Five Stronger/larger, more financially solid contractors More mature relationships with customers Release of prior year(s) reserves Movement to balance premium by writing more commercial surety 4
Surety Results 1924-1947 Year Direct Premium Written Direct Premium Earned Direct Losses Incurred Loss Ratio Difference BTW yr & avg L/R 12/31/1924 $ 44,163,367 $ 41,472,471 $18,164,942 43.8% -1.7% 12/31/1925 49,170,432 44,471,399 22,458,056 50.5% -8.4% 12/31/1926 49,746,362 49,187,148 18,937,052 38.5% 3.6% 12/31/1927 50,892,512 49,992,009 17,247,243 34.5% 7.6% 12/30/1928 49,927,853 50,731,096 24,300,195 47.9% -5.8% 12/30/1929 50,536,664 51,636,460 19,673,491 38.1% 4.0% 12/30/1930 48,192,977 51,243,293 26,800,242 52.3% -10.2% 12/30/1931 42,369,692 45,523,471 33,596,322 73.8% -31.7% 12/29/1932 30,216,655 35,384,008 36,657,832 103.6% -61.5% 12/29/1933 28,877,874 28,454,510 30,332,508 106.6% -64.5% 12/29/1934 33,556,570 32,110,085 30,697,241 95.6% -53.5% 12/29/1935 36,085,553 34,516,527 28,855,817 83.6% -41.5% 12/28/1936 40,147,041 38,040,845 16,890,135 44.4% -2.3% 12/28/1937 39,022,963 39,742,296 12,677,792 31.9% 10.2% 12/28/1938 42,213,310 39,352,667 10,349,751 26.3% 15.8% 12/28/1939 44,231,166 43,202,032 9,979,669 23.1% 19.0% 12/27/1940 44,266,272 42,944,688 12,840,462 29.9% 12.2% 12/27/1941 50,650,454 47,852,225 9,953,263 20.8% 21.3% 12/27/1942 57,893,162 56,735,288 9,701,734 17.1% 25.0% 12/27/1943 37,657,381 48,439,896 8,912,941 18.4% 23.7% 12/26/1944 33,816,557 36,784,172 3,531,281 9.6% 32.5% 12/26/1945 35,039,867 34,888,087 4,744,780 13.6% 28.5% 12/26/1946 44,589,182 38,103,167 1,790,849 4.7% 37.4% 12/26/1947 53,494,785 46,008,296 828,149 1.8% 40.3% - Totals $ 1,036,758,651 $1,026,816,136 $ 409,921,748 42.1% X 2 best/2 worse $879,580,155 $878,866,155 $340,312,410 39.9% 5
Surety Results 1981-2013 Year Direct Premium Written Direct Premium Earned Direct Losses Incurred Loss Ratio Difference BTW yr & Average L/R 12/31/1981 $1,088,709,460 $996,937,013 $278,371,754 27.9% 3.2% 12/31/1982 1,215,380,500 1,075,645,686 364,290,197 33.9% -2.8% 12/31/1983 1,479,477,801 1,200,436,579 401,529,289 33.4% -2.3% 12/30/1984 1,911,118,190 1,406,060,430 654,760,710 46.6% -15.5% 12/30/1985 2,454,556,004 1,588,774,470 1,234,472,682 77.7% -46.6% 12/30/1986 1,573,740,541 1,566,262,616 1,045,978,740 66.8% -35.7% 12/30/1987 1,730,364,335 1,652,031,516 917,220,524 55.5% -24.4% 12/29/1988 1,866,159,159 1,806,265,799 483,476,099 26.8% 4.3% 12/29/1989 2,862,868,983 1,985,103,869 617,355,251 31.1% 0.0% 12/29/1990 2,154,321,062 2,134,329,225 489,307,557 22.9% 8.2% 12/29/1991 2,189,219,980 2,167,284,349 479,511,706 22.1% 9.0% 12/28/1992 2,234,558,735 2,201,973,688 657,004,062 29.8% 1.3% 12/28/1993 2,328,666,553 2,282,002,906 514,762,457 22.6% 8.6% 12/28/1994 2,456,824,256 2,386,214,224 777,919,049 32.6% -1.5% 12/28/1995 2,711,907,435 2,678,279,024 831,692,767 31.1% 0.1% 12/27/1996 2,767,034,998 2,659,163,468 702,421,472 26.4% 4.7% 12/27/1997 2,884,636,736 2,681,720,242 677,072,638 25.2% 5.9% 12/27/1998 2,988,236,615 2,880,147,320 768,033,388 26.7% 4.4% 12/27/1999 3,327,875,945 3,052,492,052 874,099,365 28.6% 2.5% 12/26/2000 3,453,655,276 3,384,757,272 1,530,885,901 45.2% -14.1% 12/26/2001 3,485,062,065 3,320,197,154 2,733,027,584 82.3% -51.2% 12/26/2002 3,639,289,660 3,495,935,923 2,251,942,764 64.4% -33.3% 12/26/2003 3,727,457,146 3,707,551,357 1,833,156,008 49.4% -18.3% 12/25/2004 4,265,934,319 4,081,720,567 2,432,747,953 59.6% -28.5% 12/25/2005 4,476,977,419 4,346,275,972 1,304,591,256 30.0% 1.1% 12/25/2006 5,007,980,206 4,722,379,816 826,474,259 17.5% 13.6% 12/25/2007 5,401,780,316 5,156,647,346 937,592,682 18.2% 12.9% 12/24/2008 5,465,151,031 5,359,054,000 711,999,037 13.3% 17.8% 12/24/2009 5,142,385,351 5,260,642,180 1,031,934,512 19.6% 11.5% 12/24/2010 5,145,134,689 5,230,707,061 707,789,628 13.5% 17.6% 12/31/2011 5,121,352,141 5,127,954,320 681,663,973 13.3% 17.8% 12/31/2012 5,035,544,691 5,136,705,629 1,109,388,270 21.6% 9.5% 12/31/2013 5,245,677,500 5,174,838,728 841,022,489 16.3% 14.9% Total $106,839,039,098 $101,906,491,801 $31,703,496,023 31.1% X 2 best/2 worse $90,315,751,240 $86,513,634,719 $26,343,019,061 30.4% 6
Surety Results U.S. SURETY INDUSTRY CYCLE 7 17.5% 18.2% 13.3% 19.6% 13.5% 13.3% 21.6% 16.3% 27.9% 36.4% 32.4% 28.8% 29.4% 23.9% 26.2% 24.2% 30.1% 30.5% 25.9% 32.4% 40.2% 36.2% 43.3% 33.0% 45.9% 27.9% 33.9% 33.4% 46.6% 26.8% 31.1% 22.9% 22.1% 29.8% 22.6% 32.6% 31.1% 26.4% 25.2% 26.7% 28.6% 30.0% 45.2% 49.4% 55.5% 61.2% 61.3% 59.6% 66.8% 64.4% 77.7% 82.3% 90.0% 80.0% 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% LOSS RATIO 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 YEAR Source: SFAA
Surety Results Historical Premium & Loss Ratio Trends 90.0% 80.0% 70.0% $6,000 $5,000 Millions 60.0% $4,000 50.0% 40.0% $3,000 30.0% $2,000 20.0% 10.0% $1,000 0.0% 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 $- Source: SFAA Direct Written Premium Loss Ratio 8
MARKET SITUATION 9
Market Situation Current Surety Market Since 1990 s consolidation has narrowed the surety field considerably Subguard and Subcontractor Insurance Taking surety premium and losses away from the surety industry Shifting losses from surety companies onto contractors Reduces premium efficiency on subcontract accounts Adverse selection Contract market is engaged in conservative, defensive underwriting Contract line loss activity has become more frequent due to several large headline claims Contract surety remains a competitive landscape Responsible underwriting and credit selection is beginning to erode for premium growth Insurance market share mentality 10
Market Situation Surety & Fidelity Association of America Top 15 Surety Writers 1994 vs 2013 1994 2013 Surety ($millions) Premium Surety ($millions) Premium 1 Reliance Travelers 147.1 1 TRAVELERS BOND 778.7 2 USF&G St. Paul Travelers 144.1 2 LIBERTY MUTUAL GRP 738.3 3 F&D Zurich 142.5 3 ZURICH INSURANCE GRP 492.7 4 St Paul Group Travelers 140.9 4 CNA INSURANCE GRP 408.6 5 AIG AIU Holdings Chartis 111.5 5 CHUBB & SON INC GRP 210.2 6 Aetna Travelers 106.6 6 IFIC SURETY GRP 167.3 7 Continental CNA 100.7 7 HCC SURETY GRP 166.4 8 Fireman's Fund Out of surety 97.3 8 HARTFORD FIRE & CAS GRP 160.7 9 CNA Insurance Companies 92.8 9 ACE LTD GROUP 143.1 10 Safeco Liberty Mutual 88.9 10 RLI INSURANCE GRP 110.6 11 Chubb 77.7 11 GREAT AMERICAN INS COMPANIES 110.4 12 Hartford 74.0 12 LEXON/BONDSAFEGUARD 96.2 13 Amwest Gone 70.2 13 NAS SURETY GRP 79.9 14 Capsure CNA 55.3 14 THE HANOVER INSURANCE GRP 77.3 15 CIGNA Group ACE 49.7 15 MERCHANTS BONDING CO GRP 76.2 Companies that are gone are in RED Companies that merged or were sold are in BLUE Companies that merged or were sold a second time are in GREEN 11
Market Situation Top 20 Surety Companies Attributes Analysis Rank Company 2013 DWP 2013 DLR 3 year average DLR 1 Travelers $ 778,689 10.4% 2.3 2 Liberty Mutual $ 738,271 34.2% 14.5 3 Zurich $ 492,737 24.3% 10.9 4 C N A $ 408,605 18.2% 8.0 5 Chubb $ 210,242 2.4% 3.8 6 IFIC $ 167,316 11.1% 17.4 7 HCC $ 166,419 4.9% 26.1 8 Hartford $ 160,693 23.9% 16.3 9 ACE $ 143,061 19.3% 10.1 10 RLI $ 110,594 11.4% 10.9 11 Great American $ 110,364 25.2% 24.5 12 Lexon/Bond Safeguard $ 96,206 37.9% 36.9 13 NAS $ 79,919 1.5% 22.3 14 Hanover $ 77,266 67.1% 55.3 15 Merchants Bonding $ 76,211 12.3% 39.8 16 Arch Insurance $ 74,743 6.7% 23.9 17 American International $ 64,309 8.4% 7.0 18 WR Berkley $ 64,215 28.1% 33.6 19 Suretec $ 54,730 13.0% 22.8 20 Alleghany $ 53,568 19.2% 22.0 Contract attributes Jumbo Very Large Large Middle Market Smaller Middle Market Small Account Specialty International Fronting Reverse Flow Foreign Foreign Strong Market Perception Moderate Market Perception Unknown Source: SFAA Contract Definitions Jumbo Work Programs > $1B Very Large - $500MM to $1B Large Middle Market - $100MM to $500MM Smaller Middle Market - $25MM to $100MM Small Account - $25MM and less Specialty Trade contractors International Definitions Fronting Ability to write incidental bonds for US Accounts in Foreign jurisdictions Reverse Flow Ability to write US bonds for foreign companies Foreign-Foreign Ability to write foreign bonds for foreign companies 12
CONTRACTOR RESULTS 13
Contractor Results Industry Trends Overall terms and conditions in contract and bond forms are more onerous Preference contracts for Disadvantaged Business Enterprise (DBE) contractors are reducing work available to standard contractors Public budget reductions, private lending restrictions, and project delays are resulting in work schedule uncertainties 14
Contractor Results Financial Conditions Approximately 82% of contractors profitable in 2013 Balance sheets have deteriorated Working capital and liquidity adversely effected Many subcontractors are a bad receivable away from bankruptcy Operating leverage has increased Total debt to net worth Interest bearing debt to net worth 15
Contractor Results 2013 Profitability by Business Type 16
Contractor Results 2013 Profitability by Region Contract Accounts 17
SURETY PERSPECTIVE FOR 2014-2015 18
Surety Perspective for 2014 & 2015 Measuring the Contribution of Construction to the Slow Recovery Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Economic activity and employment have continued to expand at a moderate rate The slow recovery has kept the economy from growing at a historical average of 2.5% of GDP At the existing rate of recovery, FOMC is predicting that the historical average will be attained in 2015 Recovery of the construction sector is a necessary ingredient for a strong recovery 19
Surety Perspective for 2014 & 2015 Economic Interconnections of Construction Production of homes and commercial structures requires purchases of intermediate goods and services These purchases include not only steel, wood, and electrical, but also insurance bonds, legal, and banking services The vertically integrated contractor has been strained due to their own internal connections (e.g. highway contractor owns the quarry, and general contractors own electrical and mechanical) 20
Surety Perspective for 2014 & 2015 Housing 21
Surety Perspective for 2014 & 2015 2014 Projected Growth by Region Construction Put in Place Source: Federal Reserve of St. Louis 22
Surety Perspective for 2014 & 2015 Are Contractors Ready for an Uptick? Balance sheet strength Ability to internalize cash flow operations Subcontractor relationships: Do they still exist? Surety relationships? Banking relationships? 23
Surety Perspective for 2014 & 2015 Create a flexible plan Examine overhead Equipment utilization Alternate delivery systems Continuity 24
CONCLUSION 25