Market Analysis Overview Board of Governors, Actuarial & Underwriting Committee September 23, 2014
Market Analysis is a New Initiative Aligned with Citizens Strategic Plan Strategic Goal #1: Operate as an Efficient Residual Market Strategic Objective 1.1: Regularly evaluate products offered in the property insurance marketplace and adjust Citizens products to fill voids in the market, in compliance with Florida law. Objective is supported by the new Market Analysis function, jointly owned by: o Product Development Karen Holt o Corporate Analytics March Fisher o Actuarial Services Brian Donovan o Each unit contributes significant data and content to the knowledge base The main report is a complete quarterly picture of market health, linking key data for a watch group of active Florida private insurers o Market share trends o Financial results o Product, coverage, and rate filing activity 2
Private Risk Reduction Market Watch = Assessment Group Insurers Reduction 3 Private Market Watch Group Clearinghouse Participation Depopulation Participation American Integrity No Yes Ark Royal Yes No ASI Preferred No No Castle Key Insurance No No Federated National Yes No Florida Peninsula Yes Yes Heritage Yes Yes Homeowners Choice No Yes People s Trust No Yes Security First No No St. Johns No No State Farm Florida No No Tower Hill Preferred No Yes Tower Hill Prime No Yes Tower Hill Select No Yes Tower Hill Signature Yes Yes United P&C Yes Yes Universal P&C No No USAA No No Insurer Selection Criteria o Top Market Share o Depopulation Insurers o Clearinghouse Participants Updated semi-annually to reflect market changes
Key Risk Observations: Reduction 2014Q1 = Assessment Market Reduction Composition Citizens is still the largest admitted Florida Residential insurer o Market share by Insured Value (10%), Policy Count (15%) and Premium (16%) Citizens market share is highly concentrated by region and product line Citizens Personal Residential Top 10 Counties Market Share by Insured Value Palm Beach 11% Broward 18% Miami-Dade 30% Monroe 37% Hernando 30% Pasco 18% Hillsborough 9% Pinellas 27% Sarasota 16% Lee 8% 4 Notes: 1) Market share information is from Florida Office of Insurance Regulation Quarterly Supplemental Reporting 2) State Farm Florida data is as of 12/31/2013; for all other insurers, data is as of 03/31/2014
Key Risk Observations: Reduction 2014Q1 = Assessment Market Reduction Composition Citizens average premium (per policy) is higher than market Florida Personal Residential Property Insurance Average Premium per Policy Trend 5 Notes: 1) Source: Florida Office of Insurance Regulation Quarterly Supplemental Reporting (QUASR) system; policies with wind coverage 2) 2014 (Q1) Watch Group includes 12/31/13 data for State Farm Florida
Key Risk Observations: Reduction 2014Q1 = Assessment Market Reduction Composition Citizens average rate (premium per $1,000 value) is higher than market Florida Personal Residential Property Insurance Average Premium per $1,000 Insured Value Trend 6 Notes: 1) Source: Florida Office of Insurance Regulation Quarterly Supplemental Reporting (QUASR) system; policies with wind coverage 2) 2014 (Q1) Watch Group includes 12/31/13 data for State Farm Florida
Key Risk Observations: Reduction 2014Q1 = Assessment Market Reduction Composition Citizens average value per policy is lower than market Florida Personal Residential Property Insurance Average Insured Value per Policy Trend 7 Notes: 1) Source: Florida Office of Insurance Regulation Quarterly Supplemental Reporting (QUASR) system; policies with wind coverage 2) 2014 (Q1) Watch Group includes 12/31/13 data for State Farm Florida
Key Risk Observations: Reduction Market = Assessment Composition Reduction Summary Composition Summary Trend toward a smaller Citizens o Citizens personal residential market share measured by exposure has declined from 19% (2011Q4) to 10% (2014Q1) All else equal, private insurers prefer o Higher-valued homes (average value per policy is higher statewide) o Homes in less risky areas (average premium per $1,000 value lower) o Both, if possible (average premium per policy lower) o Homes where rates can be actuarially adequate without Citizens becoming a price competitor 8
Key Risk Observations: Reduction Private = Assessment Insurer Product Reduction Changes New Products Entering Market o 16 insurers filed 23 new programs o 4 of the insurers filing new programs are in the watch group and participate in the Depopulation / Clearinghouse programs New Filings Approved Filings New Homeowner Programs New Mobile Home Programs New Dwelling Programs 23 7 18 3 2 Expansion of Maximum Coverage Limits o 4 insurers filed to increase maximum Coverage A limit o One insurer filed to decrease minimum Coverage A limit 9
Key Observations: Private Insurer Product Changes Risk Reduction = Assessment Reduction Water Damage Contract Provisions and Endorsements The top 9 private insurers in the Tri-County area approach water damage in a variety of ways; Citizens is neither generally broader or narrower in coverage HO-3 and HO-6 Contract/Endorsement Provisions Exclusion for Water Damage Caused by Failure to Maintain Citizens Yes; Added 1/2013 Private Market Insurers 3: Excluded 6: Not Excluded Exclusion for Damage Caused by Long Term Exposure to Water Excluded if: Over a period of time 7: + 14 Day Exclusion 2: Weeks, Months, Years None 6: No age factor Water Damage Exclusion 3: Will write 40+ Years with Exclusion, Limited Water Damage Buyback up to $10K available Water Backup And Sump Pump Overflow None 7: Offer optional coverage $5K limit; $250 - $1K Deductible 2: Do not offer $5K limit; $250 - $1K Deductible 10
Key Observations: Private Insurer Product Changes Risk Reduction = Assessment Reduction Assignment of Benefits o Citizens currently handles assignments in accordance with its policy terms o Recent private insurer filings seek to require insurer written consent prior to policyholder assigning benefits o Discussion between insurers and OIR is ongoing; one filing was disapproved and is being litigated Coverage A Limits Coverage A ranges from $25K to $2M Screened Enclosures and Carports Typically excluded but several insurers offer coverage buy back for an additional premium; coverage limits range from $10K to $75K Other Structures (Coverage B) and Contents (Coverage C) Limits Coverage B Basic policy limits of 2% to 10%; Some limits available up to70% Coverage C Basic policy limits of 25% to 50%; Some limits available up to 75% Homeowners Liability (Coverage E) Limits Policies include a $100K liability limit with increased limits to $300K-$1M 11
Key Risk Observations: Reduction Historical = Assessment Depopulation Reduction 12 Notes: 1) 2014 data is as of 08/21/2014 2) OIR Approved counts are for September, October, and November as of 09/09/2014 3) Projected policies removed is based on an analysis of recent depopulation activity and represents are best estimate based upon information available at this time
Key Risk Observations: Reduction 2013 = Assessment Year End Private Reduction Insurer Financials Selected Watch Group Insurers ($000 s) American Integrity Federated National Florida Peninsula Security First St. Johns State Farm Florida Tower Hill Prime United P&C Universal P&C Net Premiums Written Net Premiums Written Change ( 12 vs. 13) $90,185 $166,811 $147,966 $88,405 $29,325 $575,356 $40,436 $188,806 $259,964 $13,779 $96,461 $40,598 $20,646 $6,501 ($21,901) $7,219 $78,406 $14,139 Surplus $41,069 $76,889 $71,155 $44,777 $48,622 $734,565 $43,773 $78,362 $161,803 Surplus Change ( 12 vs. 13) $12,460 $24,877 $12,707 $5,951 $3,345 $200,088 $7,439 $10,355 $27,769 Combined Ratio 74% 85% 83% 86% 79% 69% 87% 80% 87% Expense Ratio 29% 31% 32% 31% (16%) 28% 16% 29% 41% Leverage Ratio 220% 217% 208% 197% 60% 78% 92% 241% 161% Note: St. Johns negative expense ratio is related to negative Net Commission & Brokerage expenses as the Reinsurance Ceded Commission is greater than Direct Commission in the Other Underwriting Expenses Incurred portion of the ratio. 13
Key Risk Observations: Reduction Private = Assessment Insurer Rate Reduction Changes Selected Watch Group Insurers Market Share (Insured Value) Premium Volume (in millions) Overall Rate Change Rate Effective Date American Integrity Federated National Florida Peninsula Security First St. Johns State Farm Florida Tower Hill Prime United P&C Universal P&C 2.7% 2.9% 2.3% 2.4% 3.1% 8.3% 2.9% 3.3% 5.2% $225 $250 $316 $228 $285 $626 $230 $317 $739 (1.7%) (3.0%) 1.8% (4.5%) (0.5%) 6.3% 1.0% 0.0% (2.3%) 7/31/14 9/1/14 2/13/14 6/1/14 6/13/14 1/15/14 8/5/14 3/1/14 3/26/14 Notes: 1) Market Share and Premium Volume information is from Florida Office of Insurance Regulation Quarterly Supplemental Reporting 2) State Farm Florida market share and premium volume data is as of 12/31/2013; for all other insurers, data is as of 03/31/2014 3) Rate change information is from the Florida Office of Insurance Regulation 4) Overall rate change is combined for forms HO-3, HO-4, and HO-6 14
Putting Risk Reduction It All Together: = Assessment Watch Group Reduction Health and Activity Selected Watch Group Insurers Market Share Change (Insured Value) American Integrity Federated National Florida Peninsula Security First St. Johns State Farm Florida Tower Hill Prime United P&C Universal P&C + 0.1% + 0.4% (0.1%) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% (0.1%) Surplus Change 44% 48% 22% 15% 7% 37% 21% 15% 21% Rate Change (1.7%) (3.0%) 1.8% (4.5%) (0.5%) 6.3% 1.0% 0.0% (2.3%) Filing Activity New Product None Coverage Change New Product New Product None None None None Notes: 1) Market Share information is from Florida Office of Insurance Regulation Quarterly Supplemental Reporting 2) State Farm Florida market share is as of 12/31/2013; for all other insurers, data is as of 03/31/2014 3) Rate change information is from the Florida Office of Insurance Regulation 4) Overall rate change is combined for forms HO-3, HO-4, and HO-6 15
The Risk Road Reduction Ahead: Market = Assessment Evolution Reduction and Citizens Role Citizens has gotten much smaller by o Taking budgetable rate increases, allowing private insurers headroom to gradually restore their own rate adequacy without becoming uncompetitive o Encouraging consumer-friendly takeouts by sound private insurers willing to follow Citizens rate path in most cases o Standing up the Clearinghouse for Homeowners new business and renewals to clear out ineligible policies that just needed competitive shopping The private market has gotten larger by o Restoring rate adequacy and targeting certain blocks of Citizens policies (multi-peril, high-value, non-coastal, well-built) o Buying more reinsurance at historically low rates to support larger books in more risky Florida regions while remaining profitable o Offering enhancements to existing products and many new programs designed for the former Citizens policyholder What do we do to continue this path? o Add more programs to the Clearinghouse o Provide data to new insurers and work with OIR to welcome takeouts o Maintain rate adequacy and improve reinsurance protection to keep a level playing field o Install best-in-class business technology platforms to efficiently service the market and improve data quality (CORE) 16
Questions and Discussion