Eastern European migrant workers and the Danish labour market

Ruth Emerek & Anja Kirkeby Eastern European migrant workers and the Danish labour market The project The paper is the first and preliminary results of a project, which, based on Danish registers, aim to analyze the consequences of labour migration and mobility from the new Eastern European EU member countries at the Danish labour market regarding pay, working conditions and health and safety in the non-skilled and skilled labour market, with special focus on the building and construction - and cleaning industries. The project seeks to answer the following research questions: How does this labour migration in general affect the Danish non-skilled and skilled labour market in form of new segregation and wage developments? Which differences (if any) can be identified between the two selected industries and other sectors? What is the significance at trade level of this labour migration (combined with the ongoing crisis) of workers' living conditions, health and withdrawal from the labour market among Eastern European as well as Danish employees? How has the changes in the various enterprises composition of Danish and Eastern European employees and the crisis affected the employees health, pay and mobility (to other jobs, unemployment or early retirement)? Ruth Emerek & Anja Kirkeby CoMID (Center for the Study of Migration and Diversity Aalborg University Denmark Page 1

The project maps and analyses trends in labour migration from the Eastern European countries and the development of registered accidents, illness and exit from the labour market among all migrant workers from Eastern Europe and Danes on the non-skilled and skilled labour market. The analyses of the research questions are register-based. Individual data are aggregated on citizenship, enterprise and trade. In the two selected industries the development of registered accidents, illness and exit from the labour market (or trade) among all employees at enterprise level. The analyses are using longitudinal methods (duration analysis and Cox regression models) on the individual-based annual information from records on individuals objective (and registered) socio-economic conditions, working history (places of work, wages, unemployment, sickness absence), family history, migration history in Denmark, citizenship, history of disease (accidents, medicine and health). Duration analyses can reveal factors with significance for residence time in Denmark and the Cox regression will reveal factors (individual as well as aggregated) with significance of changes. The research initiative The project is part of a larger research initiative with the overall objective of shedding light on the implications of labour migration and mobility from the new Eastern European EU member countries for work environment and labour market conditions for migrant workers, the Danish workers, the Danish companies and the Danish labour market, after the special transitional arrangements for mobility from the new Eastern European EU countries to Denmark are fully phased out. This overall objective is to be achieved through a number of specific research questions on different analytical levels: How does labour migration affect the Danish labour market in the form of new segregation, wage developments, labour supply, accidents at work and in the form of changing patterns of labour market integration (inclusion, exclusion and withdrawal), for both migrant and Danish workers? How does labour migration affects institutional structures, norms, traditions and practices at the workplace, and what is the significance of the safety culture and the mental and physical working environment at work? What impact has the labour migration on workers' living conditions and how does it affect their self identity? The aim of this research initiative is to identify how the development of labour migration from the Eastern European EU countries affects the working environment and working conditions, Ruth Emerek & Anja Kirkeby CoMID (Center for the Study of Migration and Diversity Aalborg University Denmark Page 2

with special focus on the skilled and non-skilled labour market. The purpose is to identify inappropriate development trends and on that basis, produce concrete solutions, such as management strategies and tools for the reception and inclusion of the new workers from Eastern Europe. The need to examine conditions for this type of labour migration is reinforced by indications that an increasing proportion of these labour migrants choose to settle in Denmark, turning labour migration/mobility into immigration. This development can be traced in the growing number of new and very young dependants originating from the new EU countries (see figure below). Sources: Statistics Denmark, Statistikbanken, KRBEF3 and FOLK1 Furthermore the economic crisis has apparently not stopped immigration from the East (see figure next page); official Danish statistics reveal almost 46,000 immigrants of the working age 20-59 years from the Eastern European EU countries in Denmark at the beginning of 2012, more than twice as many as at the beginning of 2007 (13). The growth has been especially Ruth Emerek & Anja Kirkeby CoMID (Center for the Study of Migration and Diversity Aalborg University Denmark Page 3

strong among young men in the late twenties to late thirties. Authorities and professional organizations estimate that there are similar numbers of irregular migrant workers without work permits. Sources: Statistics Denmark, Statistikbanken, KRBEF3 and FOLK1 The inclusion of the 10 East European countries into the EU from 2004 and onwards has meant changes in the European migration patterns with a significant flow from East to West also for Denmark - despite the fact that Denmark until 2009 has had an ' East-agreement ' with the requirement that workers from the eight Eastern European EU countries, which were included in the EU per 1. May 2004 as well as Bulgaria and Romania (from 2007), in a transitional phase should have a residence and a work permit before they could work for a Danish employer (9). Ruth Emerek & Anja Kirkeby CoMID (Center for the Study of Migration and Diversity Aalborg University Denmark Page 4

The aim was to ensure the new Eastern European workers acceptable wages and working conditions on the Danish labour market, as well as ensuring that working conditions for Danish workers were not impaired (25). The gradual phase-out of the East-agreement, however, has increased the possibility of various forms of exploitation of the new Eastern European workers, both in Danish jobs and in connection with sub-contracting. This together with the fast growing number of Eastern European workers - challenges the norms and traditions of the Danish labour market and can result in deterioration of occupational health and safety of both immigrant and Danish workers, for example, the want for more time and more overtime work, involve potential conflicts between the various groups. Previous studies of immigration before the crisis has shown that it is mainly younger Danes without education, who are paying the price for immigration in the form of lower wages and lost jobs/changes (32,33). The problems may be enlarged by the fact that East-agreement was phased out at the time the crisis and unemployment grew, and the already declining employment in the male-dominated jobs for skilled and non-skilled workers declined further (17). Push and pull factors Eastern European labour migrants go to Denmark or other Western European countries in the expectation of higher wages, better working conditions and social conditions and/or because the socio-economic conditions are generally poor (inter alia, higher unemployment and lower wages) in the Eastern Europe countries (21, 16, 49).There are thus both pull and push factors behind the migration (11). Migrant workers are in many cases prepared to accept the so-called 3-d jobs (Dirty, Dangerous and Demeaning), which are characterized by having a high risk of injuries and accidents. The acceptance of flexibility with regard to working time and length as well as the generally poor working conditions must, therefore, be assumed to be high among migrant workers (21), who also will have limited knowledge of Danish agreements, tax conditions and rules on occupational health and safety, and relatively few of the migrant workers are members of a Danish Trade Union (22). Migrant workers also lack knowledge of the Danish language and Danish working and safety culture (25). A recent report shows that social dumping is widespread and that there is a lack of knowledge about social rights (36). These factors, combined with the poor housing, wages lower than the minimum wage, illegal long working days and breach of security requirements with work accidents, implies a risk of weakening of a number of working conditions on the Danish labour market. This also suggests that Eastern European workers' increasing share of the labour force in Denmark has had significance for a further and new segregation of work, both on the labour market and at workplace level. Ruth Emerek & Anja Kirkeby CoMID (Center for the Study of Migration and Diversity Aalborg University Denmark Page 5

There are as yet no published studies on the significance of changes in the composition of the workforce at the enterprise level for the employees ' living conditions (salary, job opportunities, health and accidents), but studies of organizational changes in Danish companies have shown that changes can lead to health problems (26). New knowledge The project will contribute with new knowledge about the importance of globalisation here in particular the importance of labour migration from the new EU countries from Eastern Europe with regard to health, working conditions and environment on skilled and non-skilled jobs. The project will, among other things, identify the cooperation and potential tensions between Eastern European workers and Danish workers as well as former and new potential segregation on the labour market. Furthermore, the project puts focus on how safety culture is developing along with the changes the free mobility of labour is creating on the Danish labour market. The project will thus qualify the debate on the organisation of the future Danish labour market for the benefit of both workers and employers/business and the Danish society. The lack of knowledge of migrant workers' working conditions also means that there is a lack of tools to facilitate the migrant workers' inclusion and, in the long term retention on the Danish labour market, and to ensure the retention of the current Danish standard for the working environment, working conditions and wage levels. It is the research initiative s vision to contribute with new knowledge and practical tools for the management and handling of the change and the growing diversity, as the free mobility of labour in the EU has created on the Danish labour market. The research initiative focuses specifically on the construction and cleaning industry, but at the same time, examines the extent to which the problems and therefore the results can be generalized from these two industries. The two industries are chosen for several reasons: both industries have a high concentration of Eastern European workers; in both industries, work is risky in relation to accidents and health; the one industry (construction/plant) is maledominated and the other (cleaning) traditionally female dominated, and the two branches of a linear transformation between the spectrum of the status of a skilled trade and the low estimated cleaning work. Ruth Emerek & Anja Kirkeby CoMID (Center for the Study of Migration and Diversity Aalborg University Denmark Page 6

Preliminary results Survival and duration analysis reveal that almost half the migrants from the new Eastern European EU-countries settle in Denmark for a longer period. Five years (60 months) after the their first encounter into Denmark since the EU-enlargement between 20 % (from Bulgaria) and 60% (from Czech Republic) of migrants from the various Eastern European EU-countries have left Denmark (figure next page). A duration analysis on first entrance to first exit after the EU-enlargement shows that origin (in form of citizenship) has significant influence on the duration of stay. Migrants from Romania and Bulgaria have a twice as long an estimated continuous first stay than other eastern European migrants. Migrants who stayed a period in Denmark before the EU-enlargement and prior to the end of the special Danish East agreement had a shorter stay than persons immigrated after (83%). Women have a significant longer stay than men, while age at immigration seems less important except for migrants younger than 30 years of age. Ruth Emerek & Anja Kirkeby CoMID (Center for the Study of Migration and Diversity Aalborg University Denmark Page 7

The result furthermore suggests that the regulations in form of the East Agreement (which is now repealed) had some impact on the time of stay. The duration analysis below is based on 45.326 immigrants aged 18-64 years. Parameter Estimate Ratio - expected survival time Intercept 4,71*. Country of origin/citizen Ship Czech Republic -0,93* 40% Slovenia -0,73* 48% Slovakia -0,37* 69% Hungary -0,21* 81% Estonia -0,08 ns 92% Lithuania 0,11* 112% Latvia 0,14* 115% Romania 0,75* 212% Bulgaria 0,85* 235% Poland.. Sex Women 0,39* 147% Men.. Age at immigration 60-65 years 0,61 ns 183% 55-59 years 0,03 ns 103% 50-54 years -0,04 ns 96% 45-49 years 0,01 ns 101% 40-44 years 0,02 ns 102% 35-39 years 0,02 ns 102% 25-29 years -0,17* 84% 18-24 years -0,74* 48% 30-34 years.. Residence in DK before enlargement -0,07 ns 93% No residence in DK before enlargement.. Immigrated before end of East Agreement -0,19* 83% Immigrated after end of East agreement.. Scale 1,75. *Pr<0,005, Ns=Not significant The project period is March 2013 - February 2016 Contact: emerek@cgs.aau.dk or kirkeby@cgs.aau.dk Ruth Emerek & Anja Kirkeby CoMID (Center for the Study of Migration and Diversity Aalborg University Denmark Page 8

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