ERM 57 Review ERM001 Speakers: Michael W. Elliott, CPCU, AIAF, Senior Director of Knowledge Resources, The Institutes Ann Myhr, CPCU, ARM, AU, Senior Director of Knowledge Resources, The Institutes
Learning Objectives At the end of this session, you will: Dissect the most challenging ERM 57 course topics. Practice ERM 57 exam questions. Familiarize yourself with the ERM 57 exam format.
What to Expect on the Exam Educational Objectives Balanced Exam Pretest Items
Test-Taking Tips Get the easy ones Don t get bogged down early Use the mark for later review feature Eliminate the obviously wrong answers Use your scratch paper to keep track
Assignment 1 Introduction to Enterprise Risk Management
ERM Definition RIMS A strategic business discipline that supports the achievement of an organization s objectives by addressing the full spectrum of its risks and managing the combined impact of those risks as an interrelated risk portfolio.
Traditional Risk Management Department
ERM Governance Model
Classifications of Risk
Risk Quadrants
Risk quadrants differ from risk classifications. While risk classifications focus on specific characteristics of the risk itself, risk quadrants focus on q A: pure and subjective risks. q B: subjective and objective risks. q C: risk diversification. q D: sources of risk.
Assignment 2 Enterprise Risk Management in an Organization
Purpose and Types of Maturity Models The purpose of a maturity model is to evaluate or improve a business process. Two types of particular interest are: Capability Maturity Model RIMS Risk Maturity Model
Capability Maturity Model (CMM) and Capability Maturity Model Integration Has five levels: Ad hoc Initial Defined Managed Optimizing
Based on the Capability Maturity Model (CMM) developed by Carnegie Mellon, an organization that has basic risk management processes with no attempt at enterprise-wide risk management is at which one of the maturity levels? q A: Managed q B: Initial q C: Ad hoc q D: Defined
RIMS Risk Maturity Model Uses 5 maturity levels based on CMM applied to 7 attributes: Adoption of ERM-based approach ERM process management Risk appetite management Root cause discipline Uncovering risks Performance management Business resiliency and sustainability
A risk maturity model that uses five maturity levels based on the Capability Maturity Model, determining the maturity level for each of seven attributes by evaluating the degree to which key drivers are present, is known as the q A: Capability Maturity Model q B: Standard and Poor s (S&P) Risk Maturity Model q C: RIMS Risk Maturity Model q D: Aon Risk Maturity Index
Organizational Functions Related to ERM
Assignment 3 Enterprise Risk Management Framework and Process
Framework and Process
ISO 31000 Framework and Process Source: ISO 31000:2009
According to the ISO 31000 risk management standards, which one of the following is a component of risk assessment? q A: Establishing the context q B: Risk evaluation q C: Risk treatment q D: Monitoring and review
COSO ERM Source: COSO Enterprise Risk Management Integrated Framework
Assignment 4 Risk Oversight
Role of Corporate Governance Separation of ownership and control Agency costs Aligning manager and shareholder interests
Corporate Governance Codes Balance of nonexecutive and executive directors Nonexecutive directors have access to others Nomination process Compensation committee Audit committee Evaluation of board members performance Shareholder approval of director and executive officer compensation
Board Membership and CommiHees Membership Chair Inside directors Outside directors Commi-ees Compensa4on Audit Nomina4ons/corporate governance
Risk Governance Architecture within which risk management operates in a company. Clarity about which risks are managed Provides guidance for sound and informed decision making Source: Risk Governance Guidance for Listed Boards, (Singapore: Corporate Governance Council, May 10, 2012)
Chief Risk Officer (CRO) Senior manager Has access to the board an top management and partners with business unit managers Compliance champion vs. modeling expert CRO as strategic controller vs. CRO as strategic adviser
Risk Commi-ees Board- level Risk oversight Assist board in semng risk appe4te Advise board on risk strategy Oversee cri4cal risk exposures Execu:ve- level Risk management execu4on Provide board with informa4on on key risks and how they are managed Approve risk management strategy design
Which one of the following is a responsibility of an executive-level risk committee? q A: Set the organization s risk appetite q B: Oversee risk at the board level q C: Approve the design of an organization s risk management strategy q D: Serve as a modeling expert rather than a compliance champion
Assignment 5 Strategic Planning and Enterprise Risk Management
SWOT Analysis Table
Strategy Implementation Some organizations apply a balanced scorecard approach to implement strategy and to provide a foundation for strategy evaluation. The balanced scorecard approach translates an organization s strategy into specific goals and actions assigned to each department within the organization.
Organizational Levels
Which one of the following types of strategy determines how individual departments within an organization direct their activities? q A: Functional strategy q B: Business strategy q C: Corporate strategy q D: Operational strategy
Assignment 6 Risk-Based Performance and Process Management
Risk Based Performance Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) o Critical Success Factors o Risk Tolerance
Successful organizations have goals and objectives. A financial or nonfinancial measurement that defines how successfully an organization is progressing toward its longterm goals is referred to as q A: an operating standard (OS). q B: a critical success factor (CSF). q C: a key performance indicator (KPI). q D: an objective gauge (OG).
Purpose of Key Risk Indicators (KRIs) Effective KRIs provide objective, quantifiable information about emerging risks and trends in existing risks that can affect an organization s success.
Which one of the following is an example of an external key risk indicator (KRI) that a manufacturer might monitor? q A: Number of employee injuries q B: Age of accounts payable q C: Amount of budget variances q D: Cost of raw materials
Assignment 7 Internal Audit and Control
Internal Control and Risk Management Internal control a system or process that an organization uses to achieve its operational goals, internal and external financial reporting goals, or legal and regulatory compliance goals.
Three Lines of Defense Model Source: FERMA/ECIIA
According to the Three Lines of Defense Model, internal audit s role in risk assessment techniques is to q A: design them. q B: implement them. q C: provide assurance on their effectiveness. q D: perform a control risk self-assessment (CRSA).
Risk-Based Auditing Aligns audit resources with the areas that pose the greatest organizational risk.
Evolution of Internal Audit Transac4on Approvals Assurance of Internal Controls Risk- based Approach
The modern approach to internal auditing differs from the traditional approach by focusing on q A: the effectiveness of internal controls. q B: the relative riskiness of various activities. q C: transaction approvals. q D: systems-based compliance.
Assignment 8 Regulation and Compliance
Roles of Compliance and Internal Audit Compliance Determines compliance issues Develops work plans to meet compliance requirements Conducts compliance risk assessments Internal Audit Audits internal controls that test for compliance Iden4fies gaps in internal control systems and processes Serves as internal consultant on compliance threats and opportuni4es
Regulation Rules- Based More certainty and predictability Less responsive to change Inflexible OXen circumvented Principles- Based More flexible and focuses on outcomes Responds more quickly in a changing environment Requires more communica4on between the regulator and the regulated
NAIC ORSA Risk Management Framework Assessment of Risk Exposure Prospec4ve Solvency Assessment Principles- based (guidelines) Applies ERM to insurance companies
The NAIC Own Risk and Solvency Assessment (ORSA) model law represents a change from past NAIC directives because it is q A: specific in terms of reporting. q B: retrospective. q C: voluntary. q D: principles-based.
Assignment 10 Risk Modeling
Influence Diagrams and Probabilities GEV Industries hires inexperienced and experienced workers to operate simple and complex machines. Accident rates vary by worker experience and complexity of machine. GEV would like to estimate accident rates if it (a) assigns workers randomly to machines or (b) assigns workers to machines based on experience.
Influence Diagram Worker assignment to machines Worker Experience? Machine Complexity Accident Rate Cost of Risk
Simple machines Machine and Worker Data Complex machines Inexperienced workers Experienced workers 40 160 60 140 Random Worker Assignments Probabili4es Inexp. worker (30%) Exp. Worker (70%) Simple machine (20%) 6% 14% Complex machine (80%) 24% 56% Accident Condi4onal Probability Inexperienced Experienced Simple Machine 5% 0% Complex Machine 40% 10%
Random Worker Assignments Probabili:es Inexp. worker (30%) Exp. Worker (70%) Simple machine (20%) 6% 14% Complex machine (80%) 24% 56% Accident Condi4onal Probability Inexperienced Experienced Simple Machine 5% 0% Complex Machine 40% 10% Accident Probability Inexp. worker Exp. worker Simple machine.3% 0.0% Complex machine 9.6% 5.6% Total accident probability = 15.5%
Worker Assignments by Experience Inexp. worker (30%) Exp. Worker (70%) Simple machine (20%) 20% 0% Complex machine (80%) 10% 70% Accident Condi4onal Probability Inexperienced Experienced Simple Machine 5% 0% Complex Machine 40% 10% Accident Probability Inexp. worker Exp. worker Simple machine 1% 0% Complex machine 4% 7% Total accident probability = 12.0%
Twenty percent of PDQ Transport s trucks have advanced safety equipment and 80% do not. Thirty of PDQ s drivers are inexperienced and 90 are experienced. Assuming drivers are assigned randomly to trucks, what is the probability that an inexperienced driver is assigned to a truck without advanced safety equipment? q A: 18% q B: 20% q C: 24% q D: 60%
Correlation Relationship between two variables Number between +1 and -1 0 means no correlation
Two variables are perfectly positively correlated. If one of the variables increases, the other will q A: increase in direct proportion. q B: decrease in direct proportion. q C: increase at half the rate. q D: decrease at half the rate.
Value at Risk (VaR) Copyright 2015 The Ins4tutes
A $500,000, 2 percent VaR means losses from an investment are expected to be q A: $10,000. q B: less than $500,000 2 percent of the time. q C: $490,000. q D: greater than $500,000 2 percent of the time.
Assignment 11 Risk-Based Capital Allocation
Cost of Equity K E = r f + ß (r m r f ) Where: ß = Beta of security r m = Expected return on the market r f = Risk-free rate
Cost of Debt Equation Cost of debt K D = (risk free rate of return r f + risk premium) (1 tax rate)
Polytech Company Tax rate 40% Risk-free rate 4% Current Debt $10 million Polytech credit spread 2.10% Curent Equity $100 million Expected market return 10% Market risk premium 6% Polytech Beta 1.20 69
Polytech Company Estimate the cost of debt Estimate the cost of equity Optimal capital structure = weighted average of the cost of debt and the cost of equity 70
Polytech Company Cost of Debt (Risk- free rate of return + credit spread) X (1 tax rate) (4% + 2.10%) X (1-.40) 3.66% 71
Polytech Company Cost of Equity Risk- free rate of return + Beta X (Market rate of return risk- free rate of return) 4% + 1.20 (10% - 4%) 11.20% 72
Polytech Company Weighted Average Cost of Capital $10 mil. debt divided by $110 mil. (debt + equity) =.091.091 weight of debt;.909 weight of equity (3.66% X.091) + (11.20% X.909).333% + 10.181% 10.514% 73
Market Value Surplus (MVS)
Economic Capital
Market Value Surplus Example Autumn Assurance Group has assets at fair value of $100 million. The present value of Autumn s liabilities is $85 million. The market value margin is $5 million. Using probability models, Autumn determines that its VaR is $8 million because it expects to incur an $8 million or greater loss of capital at a.5 percent probability over a one-year period. 1. What is Autumn s MVS? 2. What is Autumn s economic capital? 3. Does Autumn have excess capital or a deficiency in capital?
Questions?
Additional Slides
Assignment 9 Risk Assessment and Treatment
Risk Identification Tools Facilitated workshops Delphi technique Scenario analysis HAZOP SWOT
Which one of the following team approaches to risk identification involves a select group of experts in question-and-response cycles until a consensus is achieved? q A: HAZOP q B: Scenario analysis q C: Delphi technique q D: SWOT
Risk Treatment Techniques
Assignment 12 Risk Management Environment and Culture
Risk Centers and Owners Risk center unit within an organization at which level a risk (or risks) is most effectively managed Risk owner individual accountable for identification, assessment, treatment, and monitoring of risks in a specific environment
Advantages of Risk Centers Reduces the scope of risk analysis Allows for the involvement of operational managers Helps focus on the organization s strategic goals and operational objectives Ensures that risks are managed at the most appropriate level in the organization
Risk Attitude Risk Avoiding Risk Op4mizing Risk Seeking
Evolution of Risk Management Insurance Management Risk Management Enterprise Risk Management
ERM Value Proposition Identify key risks Employ risk-based decision making Improve internal control Improve risk governance Comply with legal and regulatory requirements
Solvency I and II (Insurance Cos) Solvency I Early 1970s Focused on capital adequacy Solvency II 3 pillars 1 Risk- based capital 2 Risk management and governance 3 Transparent repor4ng Includes an own risk and solvency assessment (ORSA)
Basel II and III (Banks) Basel II Issued in 2004 Minimum capital requirements using weights for different types of credit risk Basel III Response to the Great Recession Opera4onal risk added Risk management framework Board of directors role (approve framework, risk appe4te, governance)
ERM Process Model
Risk Identification Tools Risk Register Public University Event ID Risk Scenario Likelihood Impact Risk Level Risk Treatment (present) Proposed improvement ac4on Next Review Date 1 2 Loss of personal computer Damage to reputa4on 3 1 None None Remove from list 2 4 Review policy Implement 2 months 3 Loss of state funding 3 5 None Increase lobbying Step up giving campaign 1 month.
Risk IdentificationTools - Risk Map Public University 3 1 Loss of a personal computer 2 2 3 Damage to reputa4on Loss of state funding 1
Inherent and Residual Risk Inherent Treat Residual Treat Op4mum
A risk map showing a large difference between inherent and residual risk indicates that the q A: current risk treatment is ineffective. q B: risk does not need to be treated. q C: current risk treatment is effective. q D: risk exceeds the organization s risk tolerance.
Decision Tree
ERM Tools - Modern Portfolio Theory X Expected Value of the Return X X Risk Appe4te X Risk standard devia4on (variability)
The efficient frontier consists of portfolios that q A: are riskless. q B: provide the average market return. q C: provide the highest return at different risk levels. q D: return the risk-free rate of return.
Earnings at Risk
Earnings at risk of $200,000 with 90 percent confidence are projected to be q A: $180,000. q B: less than $200,000 10 percent of the time. q C: $200,000 90 percent of the time. q D: greater than $200,000 10 percent of the time.