Peter Malmqvist www.eqr.se Sweden in the light of the global financial melt-down Earnings development The banking crises The real estate crash Economic trends The Greek crisis Equity trends
Peter Malmqvist Present Chairman, Sw. Assoc. of Financial Analyst Investigator at the Stockholm Exchange Part-time teacher at Stockholm School of Economics and Stockholm University Columns in the business magazines: Privata Affärer, Aktiespararen, Sunt förnuft, Fastighetsnytt, Balans Past Head of equity research at Nordnet Bank Member of The EFRAG User Panel Head of equity research and asset management at Aragon Securities Business journalist at Svenska Dagbladet, Swedish Public TV (Aktuellt), Sydsvenska Dagbladet Private Equity Analyst (The Swedish Investment Bank AB) Accountant (Ernst & Young)
The Swedish financial crices Earnings development Stockholm 2008-03-10
Stockholm earnings 10000 Vinster/Earnings 1975-2010 (Q1) Base 100 = 1975 Moving average 4 quarters 1000 100 10 80 85 90 95 00 05 10
USA earnings (S&P) 2560 1280 S&P (USA) 1871-2009 Kurs Share prices 640 320 Index 160 80 40 Earnings Vinst 20 10 5 3 80 90 00 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 00 10 S&P EPS x 17 Standard & Poors, 500 Composite, Index Source: Reuters EcoWin
Stockholm Earnings 360 340 320 300 280 260 240 220 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Stockholm - Årsvinst (annual earnings) Resultat före skatt (Earnings before taxes), Mdr SEK (SEK B) AZN 30%, ABB 30%, Stora 50%, Nokia 7% 98 00 02 04 06 08 10
Stockholm Earnings engineering 120 Verkstadssektorn (Engineering) Resultat före skatt (Earnings before taxes), Mdr SEK (SEK B) 100 80 60 40 ABB 30% 20 0 98 00 02 04 06 08 10
Stockholm Earnings banks 80 70 60 Finansiella tjänster (Financials) Resultat före skatt (Earnings before taxes), Mdr SEK (SEK B) 60% Nordea 50 40 30 20 10 0 98 00 02 04 06 08 10
Stockholm Earnings banks 20000 18000 Handelsbanken Resultat före skatt (Earnings before taxes), Mn SEK 16000 14000 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 98 00 02 04 06 08 10
Stockholm Earnings banks 40000 35000 Nordea Resultat före skatt (Earnings before taxes), Mdr SEK (SEK B) 30000 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 98 00 02 04 06 08 10
Stockholm Earnings banks 18000 16000 SEB Resultat före skatt (Earnings before taxes), Mdr SEK (SEK B) 14000 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 98 00 02 04 06 08 10
Stockholm Earnings banks 20000 Swedbank Resultat före skatt (Earnings before taxes), Mdr SEK (SEK B) 15000 10000 5000 0-5000 -10000-15000 98 00 02 04 06 08 10
Equity trends Equity trends
Share price indices Index
Share price indices
Currency development
The crash in 2008 The banking crisis 2007-2010
The banking crises Lehman Brothers billions) USD (b
The banking crises Lehman Brothers Percent
The banking crises Lehman Brothers Percent
The banking crises Lehman Brothers Percent
The banking crises Lehman Brothers Percent
The banking crises Lehman Brothers rcent Per
The banking crises Lehman Brothers ercent Pe
The banking crises Lehman Brothers Percent
The banking crises Lehman Brothers ercent Pe
The crash in 2008 The real estate crash 2007-2010
The real estate bubble Index
The real estate bubble USA Sweden Index
The real estate bubble
The real estate bubble SEK (billions)
Economic trends Economic trends
Economic trends 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% -8% -10% -12% -14% Tillväxtindikator (Growth indicator) Årstakt (Y o Y) Industriproduktion Detaljhandel Bilförsäljning Industrial production Retail sales Car sales Sweden Global 98 02 06 10
Economic trends 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% -8% -10% -12% -14% Tillväxtindikator (Growth indicator) Årstakt (Y o Y) Industriproduktion Detaljhandel Bilförsäljning Germany Industrial production Retail sales Car sales Sweden 98 02 06 10
Economic trends 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% Industriproduktion (Industrial Production) Årstakt (Y o Y) Global -15% -20% -25% Sweden 98 02 06 10
Economic trends 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% Industriproduktion (Industrial Production) Årstakt (Y o Y) Germany -15% -20% -25% Sweden 98 02 06 10
Economic trends 10% 8% 6% 4% Detaljhandel, exkl bilar (Retail Sales, excl cars) Volym, Årstakt (Volume, Y o Y) Sweden Global 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% 96 00 05 10
Economic trends 10% 8% 6% Detaljhandel, exkl bilar (Retail Sales, excl cars) Volym, Årstakt (Volume, Y o Y) Sweden 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% Germany 96 00 05 10
Economic trends 20% 15% Bilförsäljning (Car Sales) Årstakt, rullande 12 mån (Y o Y, ma 12 month) 10% 5% Global 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% Sweden 96 00 05 10
Economic trends 20% 15% 10% Bilförsäljning (Car Sales) Årstakt, rullande 12 mån (Y o Y, ma 12 month) Germany 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% Sweden 96 00 05 10
Economic trends 70 65 Purchasing Managers Index Sweden(black), Global (grey) 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 98 00 02 04 06 08
Economic trends 70 65 Purchasing Managers Index Sweden(black), Germany (grey) 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 98 00 02 04 06 08
Economic trends 3,0% 2,0% 1,0% 0,0% -1,0% -2,0% -3,0% Employment growth Global Sweden -4,0% 97 00 05 10
Economic trends 3,0% 2,0% 1,0% 0,0% -1,0% -2,0% -3,0% Employment growth Germany Sweden -4,0% 97 00 05 10
Economic trends Percent
Government finances The Greek crisis
The Greek crisis Government budget surplus/deficit % GDP
The Greek crisis 2009 Budget Governm deficit debt % GDP % GDP Sweden -0,8 42 Germany -3,3 73 Italy -5,2 116 Portugal -9,4 77 USA -9,7 85 Spain -11,2 53 U.K -11,4 68 Ireland -12,2 64 Greece -13,5 115
The Greek crisis Current account, surplus/deficit % GDP hundredt ths
The Greek crisis 2009 Budget Governm Current deficit debt account % GDP % GDP % GDP Sweden -0,8 42 7,2 Germany -3,3 73 4,9 Italy -5,2 116-3,1 Portugal -9,4 77-10,3 USA -9,7 85-2,9 Spain -11,2 53-5,4 U.K -11,4 68-1,3 Ireland -12,2 64-3,7 Greece -13,5 115-11,2
The Greek crisis Current account, surplus/deficit % GDP hundredt ths