Mid-Peninsula Transportation Corridor. Environmental Assessment Terms of Reference

Ministry of Transportation Provincial & Environmental Planning Office Head Office St. Catharines Mid-Peninsula Transportation Corridor Environmental Assessment Terms of Reference

Table of Contents 1. INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND...1 1.1 Introduction...1 1.2 MTO Planning and Environmental Assessment Process...2 1.3 Niagara Peninsula Transportation Needs Assessment Study...6 1.4 Purpose of the EA Terms of Reference...9 1.5 Timing of Transportation Improvements...10 1.6 Proponent...10 2. PURPOSE OF THE UNDERTAKING...11 2.1 Transportation Problems and Opportunities...11 2.2 Purpose of the Undertaking...18 3. ALTERNATIVES...20 3.1 Alternatives to the Undertaking (Planning Alternatives)...20 3.2 Roadway and Transportation Corridor Alternatives Considered...24 3.3 Summary of Alternatives to be Carried Forward into this Route Location Environmental Assessment...28 3.4 Description of the Proposed Undertaking...29 3.5 How the Proposed Undertaking Addresses Problems and Opportunities...29 4. ROUTE LOCATION EA STUDY AREA, ENVIRONMENTAL OVERVIEW AND POTENTIAL ENVIRONMENTAL EFFECTS...30 4.1 Route Location EA Study Area...30 4.2 Environmental Overview of the Proposed Study Area...30 4.3 Anticipated Environmental Effects of the Undertaking...34 5. ROUTE GENERATION AND EVALUATION PROCESS...35 5.1 Process to Generate Alternatives...35 5.1.1 Factor Specific Environmental Inputs to the Generation of Alternatives...37 5.1.2 Refinement of Route Alternatives...37 5.2 Evaluation of Route Alternatives...43 5.2.1 Factor Specific Environmental Inputs to the Evaluation of Alternatives...46 5.3 Concept Design...51 5.3.1 Factor Specific Environmental Inputs to the Generation and Assessment of Concept Design Alternatives...51 5.3.2 Selection of the Preferred Concept Design Alternative...51 5.4 Activities Following Approval of the EA...52 5.5 Monitoring...53 5.5.1 Project Technical Monitoring...53 5.5.2 EA Process Monitoring...53 6. CONSULTATION...54 6.1 Consultation in Preparation of the EA Terms of Reference...54 6.1.1 Public Consultation During the EA Terms of Reference...54 6.1.2 Municipal / Agency, Ministry, and First Nation Consultation During the EA Terms of Reference...64 6.1.3 Workshop Sessions...66 6.1.4 Pre-Submission Review of the EA Terms of Reference...66 6.2 Consultation Plan for the Route Location Environmental Assessment...68 6.2.1 Public Consultation During the Route Location EA...69 6.2.2 Approach for Consulting External Agencies, Ministries and First Nations during the Route Location EA...70 6.2.3 Pre Submission Review of the draft Environmental Assessment Report...74 7. OTHER APPROVALS REQUIRED...75 7.1 Federal / Provincial EA Policy Coordination...75 7.1.1 Need for Federal/Provincial EA Coordination...75 7.1.2 Proposed Approach For Coordination Of New MTO Projects...77 7.1.3 Application of the Coordinated Process to MPTC...78 Page i

EXHIBITS Exhibit 1.1 MTO Planning and EA Process...3 Exhibit 2.1 Existing and Future Transportation Deficiencies on Provincial Network...16 Exhibit 3.1 Alternative Transportation Corridors Proposed to be Carried Forward into the Route Location EA...27 Exhibit 4.1 Proposed Route Location EA Study Area...31 Exhibit 4.2 Environmental Features in the Study Area...32 Exhibit 5.1 Process for Generating and Evaluation Alternatives...36 Exhibit 5.2 Segment Analysis...43 TABLES Table 5.1 Proposed Route Generation Criteria...38 Table 5.2 Evaluation Measures, Rationale and Data Sources...47 Table 6.1 Summary of Key Issues and Concerns Raised in Preparation of the EA Terms of Reference...55 SUPPORTING DOCUMENTS (Under Separate Cover 2 Volumes) Volume 1 Document A Volume 2 Document B Document C Document D Document E Document F Document G Document H Document I Document J Niagara Peninsula Transportation Needs Assessment January 2003 (updated ) Environmental Work Plans - Natural Environment Work Plan - Socio Economic Work Plan - Archaeological Work Plan - Cultural Heritage Work Plan - Noise Work Plan - Air Quality Work Plan - Contaminated Property and Waste Management Work Plan - Technical Work Plan - Cumulative Effects Work Plan Report on External Consultation Public Consultation Summaries Workshop Summary Minutes of Meetings Agency and Municipal Correspondence on the draft EA Process Commitments Report, EA Work Plans and Report on External Consultation Agency and Municipal Correspondence During Pre-submission Review of the EA Terms of Reference Conceptual Project Schedule for Undertaking the Route Location EA Federal / Provincial EA Process Coordination Page ii

1. Introduction and Background 1.1 Introduction One of the features of the Ontario Environmental Assessment Act, January 1, 1997, is the requirement for the preparation, submission and approval of a Terms of Reference before work begins on an Individual Environmental Assessment (EA). Once approved by the Minister of the Environment, the Terms of Reference set out a framework that will guide and focus the preparation of the EA. The approval of the Terms of Reference is the first statutory decision by the Minister of the Environment in the EA planning and approval process. The Ministry of Transportation (MTO), as the proponent, has prepared a Terms of Reference for the proposed Mid-Peninsula Transportation Corridor including a new 400- series highway and possible transitway in accordance with Section 6 (2)(c) of the Ontario Environmental Assessment Act. The Terms of Reference is submitted to the Ministry of the Environment (MOE) for public and government agency comment and review. Along with the Terms of Reference, the MTO is submitting supporting documentation setting out the justification of the need for the project and the scoping of alternatives to the proposed undertaking. This documentation is available under separate cover: Volume 1, Supporting Document A - Niagara Peninsula Transportation Needs Assessment Study (January 2003). A description of the purpose of the undertaking, a statement of the rationale for the undertaking and consideration of alternatives is summarized in this report, in Chapters 2 and 3. The Terms of Reference provides the purpose of the proposed undertaking; a project description; consideration of alternatives to the proposed undertaking; the study area and potential effects, and the approach to route generation and evaluation. This approach is summarized in Chapters 4 and 5 and further detailed through a number of environmental work plans available under separate cover: Volume 2, Supporting Document B Environmental Work Plans. The work plans include a detailed process for the generation, evaluation and Concept Design of route alternatives and have been prepared for the following disciplines: Natural Environment Work Plan Socio Economic Work Plan Archaeological Work Plan Cultural Heritage Work Plan Noise Work Plan Air Quality Work Plan Contaminated Property and Waste Management Work Plan Technical Work Plan Cumulative Effects Work Plan As required by the EA Act, the Terms of Reference is accompanied by a description of the public and agency consultation that was undertaken during the preparation of the Page 1

Terms of Reference (Section 6.1) and includes a description of the kinds of public/agency consultation that will take place during the preparation of the EA (Section 6.2). This consultation program for the subsequent EA is further detailed in the Report on External Consultation, available under separate cover: Volume 2, Supporting Document C. Over the last year, an extensive consultation program was carried out with municipalities, government agencies, stakeholders and the general public. The results are contained under separate cover in the supporting documentation in Volume 2. These documents serve as the consultation record and include the following: Document D Public Consultation Summaries Document E Stakeholder Workshop Summaries Document F Minutes of Meetings Document G Agency/Municipal Correspondence During Preparation of the draft EA ToR Document H Agency/Municipal Correspondence During Pre-Submission Review of the EA ToR A conceptual project schedule for the Route Location EA is available under separate cover: Volume 2, Supporting Document I. This schedule adds clarity to the process as it illustrates the general flow and order of activities involved in the proposed EA study, and indicates general time frames. However, this schedule is for information purposes only, is subject to change, and does not form part of the EA Terms of Reference for which approval is being sought. Document J can be viewed in Volume 2 of the supporting documents and contains information on Federal/Provincial EA Process Co-ordination. MTO, MOE and the Canadian Environment Assessment (CEAA) Agency are working together to ensure that requirements of the provincial and federal EA process are addressed during the course of the EA. It should be noted that the Terms of Reference set out at a minimum, what the proponent will do during the preparation of the subsequent EA. MTO will consider enhancements to the process and work tasks, as required over the course of the EA study, based on consultation input, changes to Provincial Policy and the availability of new environmental information. MTO will undertake this EA based on the legislative requirements, policies, procedures and protocols that are in place at the time the work is done. If the Terms of Reference are approved by the Minister of the Environment, MTO will be able to proceed with the EA Study to determine a preferred route for the Mid-Peninsula Transportation Corridor. 1.2 MTO Planning and Environmental Assessment Process MTO is undertaking the planning and Environmental Assessment (EA) process for the proposed Mid-Peninsula Transportation Corridor. The EA Terms of the Reference is the Page 2

first step in the formal EA process. If MOE approves the Terms of Reference, then the next step is a Route Location EA Study to determine a preferred route. If this EA is approved by MOE, then MTO can designate the route, protect property and proceed with detail design and EA work required prior to construction of the facility. The overall planning and EA process takes at least 8-10 years. The actual timing of construction will be dependent on government priorities and the availability of funding. The EA study to determine a preferred route and subsequent protection by the province is a key step in providing the required certainty for municipalities to proceed with land use planning as well as certainty for affected residents. Since an EA study takes several years, MTO wishes to proceed with an EA process that is well grounded. The Terms of Reference provides the framework for this EA process. Conducting a Needs Assessment Study constitutes the first phase in the planning for transportation improvements. A needs assessment study involves an assessment of future transportation problems, opportunities and transportation options within a broad analysis area. A key product of the needs assessment process is a multi-modal Transportation Development Strategy that consists of a number of recommendations for transportation initiatives to be carried forward by the appropriate proponent under separate EA processes. The overall MTO planning and EA process is shown in Exhibit 1.1. Exhibit 1.1 MTO Planning and EA Process Public Consultation Draft Transportation Draft Needs Transportation Assessment Needs Assessment Draft Transportation Needs Assessment Review EA Terms of Reference EA Terms of Reference EA Study Route Location EA Study for Detail Design and Construction WE ARE HERE MOE Approval MOE Approval of Preferred Route The Niagara Peninsula Transportation Needs Assessment Study was completed as a component of the Ministry of Transportation s long range planning program to improve travel through Ontario s major international and provincial transportation corridors. MTO initiated this study in 2000 to assess existing and future transportation problems from the Niagara frontier into the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) and southwestern Ontario over the next 30 years. The study recommended a number of initiatives to improve transit, rail, ferry and roadways through the Niagara Peninsula into the GTA. One Page 3

recommended undertaking to be pursued by MTO is the proposed Mid-Peninsula Transportation Corridor. The original Transportation Needs Assessment Study (June, 2001) provided the technical basis for MTO to proceed with the formal EA process for the Mid-Peninsula Transportation Corridor. Consultation was limited to discussions with staff of Niagara Region, the City of Hamilton, Halton Region and Haldimand County. No public consultation was undertaken at the time. This study report was therefore considered draft for subsequent stakeholder and public comment during the EA Terms of Reference phase. The draft Niagara Peninsula Transportation Needs Assessment Study was posted by MTO on the Environmental Bill of Rights Registry (July 18, 2001), for 60 days, to advise the public of the opportunity to comment on the results in response to this notice or during the preparation of the EA Terms of Reference. In the development of the EA Terms of Reference for the Mid-Peninsula Transportation Corridor, the findings of the transportation needs assessment study were the subject of extensive consultation with municipalities, government agencies, First Nations, stakeholders and the general public. The first four rounds of Public Consultation Centres (12 total) and three stakeholder workshops focused on the needs assessment work. A Municipal Advisory Group (MAG) provided input over the course of the study. MAG members included staff representing Niagara, Hamilton, Halton and their constituent local municipalities, the Niagara Escarpment Commission and area conservation authorities, and later in the process, First Nations and Haldimand County. This extensive public/agency/municipal consultation led to the revised needs assessment document dated January 2003 (available under separate cover as Supporting Document A). All transportation projects or undertakings carried out by the Ontario Ministry of Transportation are subject to the Environmental Assessment Act, R.S.O. 1990, c. E.18, as amended ( EAA ). The EAA provides for class environmental assessment approval for a class of undertakings. A Class Environmental Assessment for Provincial Transportation Facilities was approved under the EAA by Order In Council 1653/99 as amended July 14, 2000 ( Class EA ). MTO was the proponent of the Class EA undertaking. The Class Environmental Assessment for Provincial Transportation Facilities document can be purchased (or viewed for free) through the ministry s publishing house at www.ronen.com. The Class EA applies to undertakings by MTO (Section 1.4) and applies to provincial highways and freeways, provincial transitways, provincial ferryboats, etc. (Section 1.5 and page 2-2). Within the Class EA, projects are classified into three groups (A, B and C). New facilities (such as the Mid-Peninsula Transportation Corridor) are designated as Group A projects. A new freeway/transitway project is required by the Class EA to obtain approval as an individual undertaking under the provisions of the EAA (Section 1.5, page 1-5; page 2-1). Other undertakings listed in the documentation follow the Class EA process set out in the appropriate sections of the document. Page 4

The Class EA includes a stage called the Transportation Needs Assessment. This stage is described as part of MTO s ongoing activities, which precedes the planning stage of a Class EA undertaking. Section 4.4 states that the following provisions apply to the Transportation Needs Assessment process: The transportation needs assessment process is considered research and/or feasibility study work under the EA Act, and therefore is not subject to the EA process/public consultation requirements of the EA Act at the time it is conducted. Where this process results in the decision to pursue Group A and/or Group B transportation studies, the EA and public consultation processes of those studies are initiated through a review of the Transportation Needs Assessment findings, which then becomes a formal part of the study process conducted under this Class EA, or in the case of new freeway planning is conducted under the individual EA process. (page 4-8) The section goes on to state: (page 4-9) However, where a Group A, B, and/or C study is subsequently pursued, the Transportation Needs Assessment serves to: Identify transportation problems and opportunities (see Section 4.4.1); Evaluate and select reasonable alternatives to (see Section 4.4.2); Develop provincial transportation facility study objectives the purpose of the undertaking (see Section 4.4.3); and Initiate the study process of the Group A, B and/or C project (see Section 4.4.4). The Niagara Peninsula Transportation Needs Assessment was carried out by MTO as a separate planning and decision-making process in accordance with the above description contained in the Class EA. The document was originally completed in June 2001 and released as a draft for public and stakeholder comment at the EA Terms of Reference stage. The Niagara Peninsula Transportation Needs Assessment Study report (January 2003) was subsequently revised based on extensive consultation and forms the basis for proceeding with this for the Mid- Peninsula Transportation Corridor under Section 6 (2)(c) of the Ontario Environmental Assessment Act. The following statement from the draft Guide to Preparing Terms of Reference For Environmental Assessments (December 15, 2000), (the MOE Draft Guidelines ), describes the Needs Assessment process and supports MTO s decision to prepare this EA ToR in accordance with Section 6 (2)(c) of the EA Act: Alternatively, proponents may have previously considered some alternatives during a separate planning or decision-making process. If that process provided for public consultation in a manner that is consistent with the opportunities for public comment provided in the EA process, the proponent may propose to limit the discussion of those alternatives previously considered and discarded in order Page 5

to focus the EA on the examination of other alternatives. Master Plans and business plans are two examples of supporting documentation that may be submitted with a ToR to support both the range of alternatives readily available to the proponent, and the range of alternatives previously considered. (page 14, first full paragraph) The Niagara Peninsula Transportation Needs Assessment examined a wide range of transportation alternatives and consulted extensively on the recommendation for a new transportation corridor in addition to other transportation improvements. These transportation alternatives are not being eliminated by pursuing the new transportation corridor but are part of the overall Transportation Development Strategy for the area. These initiatives will, however, be subject to their own planning and EA processes. In summary, the Transportation Needs Assessment identifies the need for transportation improvements and examines a range of transportation alternatives as contemplated by the Class EA for projects that fall within its procedures, including Group A - new freeways. It is the approved Class EA process that requires that these types of projects be carried forward as an Individual EA. It is through a transportation needs assessment study that the ministry determines whether a new 400-series highway or transitway is needed and hence, an Individual EA required. Alternatively, the transportation needs assessment study may recommend transportation improvements that require a Class EA. Only in the case of an Individual EA process is an EA Terms of Reference required for the proposed undertaking. 1.3 Niagara Peninsula Transportation Needs Assessment Study In June 2001, the Premier of Ontario and the Minister of Transportation announced completion of the draft Niagara Peninsula Transportation Needs Assessment study. This needs assessment study was a technical exercise, involving a comprehensive examination of future transportation problems, opportunities, and a range of transportation alternatives including road, transit, rail, ferry and other options. Various commuter, tourist and commercial traffic growth scenarios were considered for a 30-year planning period based on municipal population and employment projections, tourism targets and assumptions regarding economic growth and exchange rates. The needs assessment study concluded that additional transportation capacity would be required through the Niagara Peninsula into the Greater Toronto Area to accommodate future growth in the movement of people and goods. The needs assessment study proposed a multi-modal Transportation Development Strategy comprised of a number of recommendations for transportation system improvements to be implemented by the appropriate agencies. The study recommended a tourism train service between Toronto and Niagara Falls in the short term and commuter rail service to Niagara Region in the long term. However, in view of the magnitude of future travel growth over the next 30 years through the Niagara Peninsula, it was concluded that a new transportation corridor was required to augment Page 6

the QEW and provide greater transportation system reliability, efficiency and safety as well as address municipal planning and economic development objectives in Niagara and Hamilton. The originally proposed Mid-Peninsula Transportation Corridor would link to the QEW and the international crossings at the Niagara frontier, then run westerly to Hamilton International Airport and connect to Highway 403, whereupon it was recommended to proceed easterly and connect to Highway 407 in Burlington. The first phase of the Study (EA ToR) for the Mid-Peninsula Transportation Corridor involved extensive municipal, agency, stakeholder and public consultation on the findings of the Niagara Peninsula Transportation Needs Assessment Study. Through additional technical analysis and consultation input, several alternative highway connections were recommended for consideration in the subsequent Route Location Environmental Assessment Study including connections to Highway 401 west of the Niagara Escarpment, Highway 6 North, or Highway 403 through Hamilton. The proposed EA Study Area has been broadened to encompass a variety of possible routes linking to these highways. The consultation program included five rounds of Public Consultation Centres all at three locations (fifteen in total) and three stakeholder workshops held at locations in Niagara, Hamilton and Halton. The first four rounds of public meetings focused on addressing questions and concerns regarding the Transportation Needs Assessment findings, proposed alternative transportation corridors, and the recommended broader EA Study Area. In view of the First Nations interest (e.g., traditional hunting grounds) in the study area and at the request of the First Nations, presentations were made to the elected and traditional councils of the Six Nations and the Mississaugas of the New Credit. In addition, two public meetings were held with the members of these two First Nations communities. Presentations were provided to the Council / Council Committees of Niagara, Hamilton, Halton and the City of Burlington. In addition, several meetings were held with a Municipal Advisory Group including staff of the upper tier and lower tier municipalities, the Niagara Escarpment Commission, local conservation authorities and representatives of First Nations. Over the course of the needs assessment review phase, the Project Team worked with an independent Technical Review consultant team sponsored by the Cities of Burlington and Hamilton to address municipal concerns regarding the transportation needs assessment findings. Substantial additional work was conducted and several meetings were held with staff of Burlington, Hamilton and their retained consultants leading to substantial revisions of the needs assessment report. In response to comments received during the consultation over the past year, the draft Niagara Peninsula Transportation Needs Assessment was revised (January 2003). The revised document can be seen under separate cover as Supporting Document A. Page 7

The Needs Assessment Study recognized the need for a balanced multi-modal transportation solution including transit, rail and ferry services, intelligent transportation system applications and other complementary measures in addition to highway expansion. The proposed Mid-Peninsula Transportation Corridor would provide for both a new highway and dedicated transit facilities such as High Occupancy Vehicle (HOV) lanes or a transitway. This multi-modal approach is consistent with the vision of the Smart Growth Panel for Central Ontario. While the Panel recommends a Transit First priority, the planning and environmental assessment process for new transportation infrastructure is a long-term exercise and takes 8-10 years. To ensure that the proposed new transportation corridor is protected for the future and to facilitate integrated municipal land use planning it is therefore important that MTO proceeds with the Environmental Assessment study to determine a preferred route. In support of a comprehensive inter-regional transit strategy for the Central Ontario area, MTO has initiated a Transit Opportunities Study to examine the potential for HOV lanes and transitways along existing 400-series highways and in new transportation corridors. In the future, a transitway within the proposed Mid-Peninsula Transportation Corridor could link Hamilton International Airport to a broader inter-regional transit system throughout the Greater Toronto Area. It should be noted that this approach is different from traditional Environmental Assessment projects where typically Alternatives To are eliminated from further consideration. The conventional approach fails to acknowledge the value in proceeding with options that address the transportation problem, but not as a stand-alone alternative. Further, complementary alternatives such as HOV lanes or transitways within the transportation corridor might not be considered because they would not address travel needs in the shorter term. In view of the extent of the Transportation Development Strategy (44 recommended initiatives) recommended as part of the Transportation Needs Assessment, one Environmental Assessment process is not feasible. Moreover, several recommendations require initiation by other proponents such as local municipalities and GO Transit. This is focused on just one of the many recommendations of the Needs Assessment The Mid-Peninsula Transportation Corridor (MPTC). As a component of the Transportation Development Strategy, the Ministry of Transportation has identified the need to commence the planning process for a new Mid- Peninsula Transportation Corridor (comprised of a highway and/or transitway) which provides a connection from the Niagara Frontier to the Greater Toronto Area (GTA). This proposed new transportation corridor is required to meet the 30-year transportation needs and to support population, economic and planned urban growth in the area, provide additional transportation capacity and highway network reliability, efficiency and safety between the Canada / U.S. border and the GTA, and to address significant transportation problems between Hamilton and Halton. Page 8

1.4 Purpose of the EA Terms of Reference The preparation of an EA Terms of Reference (ToR) for the Mid-Peninsula Transportation Corridor, and subsequent submission to the Minister of the Environment for review and a decision regarding approval, is a requirement of the Ontario Environmental Assessment Act. The ToR is intended to provide guidance to the proponent (MTO) and all stakeholders that the Environmental Assessment will be prepared to an acceptable level of detail. This ToR is prepared in accordance with Section 6 (2)(c) of the Ontario Environmental Assessment Act and specifically addresses the following: Identification of the Proponent (Section 1 of this document); The purpose of the undertaking (Section 2); A description of the alternatives that will be considered (Section 3); A description of the undertaking (Section 3); A description of the study area and potential effects (Section 4); Environmental Assessment Work Plans that identify the scope of work to be carried out to generate and assess impacts of the various alternative (Section 5); A Monitoring Plan (Section 5); A description of the consultation undertaken to prepare this ToR (Section 6); A description of the Consultation Plan proposed for the Route Location EA (Section 6); and, Identification of other approvals required (Section 7). In order to provide for flexibility, it should be noted that the Terms of Reference set out at a minimum, what the proponent will do during the preparation of the subsequent EA. MTO will consider enhancements to the process and work tasks, as required over the course of the EA study, based on consultation input, changes to Provincial Policy and the availability of new environmental information. MTO will undertake this EA based on the legislative requirements, policies, procedures and protocols that are in place at the time the work is done. The subsequent Route Location Environmental Assessment will be prepared in accordance with the Terms of Reference approved for this proposed undertaking and subsection 6.1(3) of the Environmental Assessment Act. A suggested schedule for the completion of the Environmental Assessment is included under separate cover as Supporting Document I. This schedule is for information purposes only and does not form part of the EA Terms of Reference for which approval is being sought. Page 9

1.5 Timing of Transportation Improvements As described earlier, the Transportation Needs Assessment recommended a Transportation Development Strategy that included a complete set of multi-modal improvements necessary to address the transportation problems and opportunities. The Ministry of Transportation is proceeding with the EA for the Mid-Peninsula Transportation Corridor now, to accommodate the lengthy process required for a Route Location EA. The other components of the recommended multi-modal strategy will be implemented by the appropriate proponent through separate EA processes. 1.6 Proponent The Ontario Ministry of Transportation is the proponent for this Environmental Assessment Terms of Reference for the Mid-Peninsula Transportation Corridor. Page 10

2. Purpose of the Undertaking Consideration of the Purpose of the Undertaking for a transportation project is a two-step process. The first step (see section 2.1) is to clearly understand the problems and opportunities that exist within the analysis area and within the planning horizon timeframe (30 years). These problems and opportunities are fully documented in the Niagara Peninsula Transportation Needs Assessment available under separate cover as Supporting Document A. The second step (see Section 2.2) is to clearly articulate the Purpose of the Undertaking to help shape the consideration of alternatives. As described in Section 1.2, this EA is being prepared in accordance with Section 6 (2)(c) of the EA Act. As such, transportation Problems and Opportunities will not be considered during the Route Location EA. 2.1 Transportation Problems and Opportunities The purpose of the Niagara Peninsula Transportation Needs Assessment Study was to assess the operation of the transportation system, identify long-range problems and opportunities, and to recommend transportation improvement options through the Niagara Peninsula into the GTA. The broader analysis area considered in the context of the study included the Region of Niagara, The City of Hamilton, the Region of Halton, the Greater Toronto Area, Haldimand County and other portions of Southwestern Ontario and the Niagara Frontier international border crossings. The study provides a Transportation Development Strategy for a 30 year planning horizon. The need for significant improvements to the transportation network are driven by several factors including population growth (and associated employment growth), trade growth, tourism growth, land use policies, and growing congestion in the existing transportation system. Analysis Area Overview The Niagara Peninsula area is strategically located within central Ontario and acts as an international trade and tourism gateway between the Greater Toronto Area, and southwestern Ontario and the United States. Some 120 million people and major industry markets in Ontario, and neighbouring states in the U.S., lie within 500 kilometres of the Analysis Area. The long-term viability of the international crossings is fundamental to trade, tourism and economic growth in the region, Central Ontario and the Province of Ontario. The Regional Municipality of Niagara is part of a larger, bi-national region spanning the Niagara River, which has 6 road/rail bridge crossings. With a variety of major tourist attractions, the Niagara area is both a major tourism gateway and a vital tourism growth centre in Ontario. Niagara Region is comprised of 12 local municipalities with a total population of 430,000. Page 11

The City of Hamilton is also in a unique position, functioning as a gateway from Niagara to the Greater Toronto Area and other economic centres in southwestern Ontario. The population of Hamilton is 500,000. John C. Munro Hamilton International Airport is a future economic growth centre and major development area in the region. The QEW and Highways 403, 6 and 8 are key highways linking Hamilton to Niagara and Halton Regions, Haldimand County and the Kitchener-Waterloo-Guelph areas. The efficiency of the provincial highway system in, and through, the Hamilton area can therefore be considered as essential to economic prosperity in the broader Golden Horseshoe Area. The Region of Halton lies directly to the east of Hamilton and is part of the Greater Toronto Area. Given its location, the region is transected by several provincial highways the QEW 403, 407 and 401. The Niagara Escarpment is a major natural feature within this area. Halton Region is comprised of four municipalities: The Town of Oakville and City of Burlington make up the urban area in the southern portion of Region and the Towns of Halton Hills and Milton make up the largely rural area to the north. The population of Halton is approximately 380,000 with another 300,000 people anticipated over the next 30 years. In view of the commuter, tourist and commercial traffic traveling through Halton the efficiency of the provincial highway system is key to local, regional and provincial economic prosperity. Population and Employment Growth Central Ontario is projected to grow by approximately 3.0 million people over the next 25 years. This growth is largely driven by immigration. As a result of increases in population and continued economic growth through trade with the United States, the level of employment will also grow. The population of the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) is projected to grow by approximately 2.3 million and the rest of Central Ontario is projected to grow by 900,000 by the rear 2031. Population and employment growth will result in greater levels of local and inter-regional travel demand. The Official Plans and strategic growth policies for all of the jurisdictions within the analysis area recognize that growth will occur and that growth is necessary for continued economic prosperity. However, the existing transportation network is not capable of supporting this growth. It is anticipated that future transportation congestion issues in the GTA may result in a "spill-over" of a component of population and employment growth from the GTA core areas to surrounding municipalities. Niagara, Hamilton and Halton are well positioned to attract and accommodate some of this growth. Niagara, Hamilton and Halton have an adequate supply of land available for development within their current Official Plan timeframes. Lands currently designated in Municipal Official Plans can accommodate an accelerated level of growth in areas that can readily be provided with municipal services. Other municipalities such as Waterloo, Wellington, Haldimand and Brant may likewise attract greater population and employment for the GTA over time. However, for the purposes of the needs assessment study, the population and employment projections Page 12

underlying the travel forecasting were based on existing municipal Official Plans and data from the Ministry of Municipal Affairs and Housing. A spill-over scenario was tested (i.e. shifting another 700,000 people outside of the GTA) to assess the impacts on travel in the analysis area. Higher population and employment growth in Central Ontario surrounding the GTA will necessitate greater investment in inter-regional linkages in terms of commuter rail, busbased transit services and road infrastructure. Directing this growth to existing urban centres will be important to constrain urban sprawl and generate demand for higher order transit in major transportation corridors. This challenge has been recognized by the Smart Growth Panel for Central Ontario Shape the Future report released April 2003. Transportation access and mobility are two important considerations in the location decisions of industry and business. Given the anticipated congestion levels in the GTA and the importance of the Niagara Peninsula as an international trade corridor, investment in passenger rail and transit systems to reduce automobile congestion will provide benefits to industry and business. However, additional road infrastructure will also be required to provide highway accessibility to planned development (e.g., Hamilton International Airport) and support a reliable, efficient and safe highway system over the next 30 years. Trade The Niagara Peninsula is a strategic region of central Ontario as it acts as an international trade and tourist gateway between the Greater Toronto Area and the United States. International trade and goods movement through the Peninsula into Canada's economic heartland is critical to the regional, provincial and national economies. Canada and the United States enjoy the largest bi-national trading relationship in the world, at about $590 billion in 2000. Approximately 87% of Canadian exports and 93% of Ontario's exports go to the United States. Increases in exports during the past few years account for 20% of Ontario's economic growth. The Niagara Peninsula is a key economic trade corridor connecting the eastern U.S. seaboard and northeastern U.S. industrial centres to the GTA, and to a lesser extent, to Kitchener-Waterloo and southwestern Ontario. The Niagara Frontier plays a significant role in this trade, accounting for approximately 16% of all Canada-U.S. trade - $100 billion annually. The QEW is a primary truck route linking the Niagara Frontier to the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) and the rest of southern Ontario. Currently, all international trade through the Peninsula carried by truck relies on one single controlled access facility: the QEW. Temporary capacity restrictions on the QEW caused by construction, weather or emergency situations have significant and immediate impacts on the ability of goods to travel through this trade corridor. Other parallel routes do not have sufficient capacity or the potential to absorb this overflow of high-speed, high-volume and long-distance traffic. As part of the Needs Assessment Study, it was assumed that goods movement by truck will increase along this trade corridor by approximately 3% per annum between 2001 and 2031. This is substantially lower than the historical trend (5-6% annually). Page 13

Just-in-time delivery is, and will continue to be, the key to shipping in the manufacturing sector with a continued heavy reliance on truck transport. Currently, on an average workday, approximately 8,600 trucks cross the Niagara Frontier bridges. Of those, 62% originate or are destined to the GTA or Hamilton. Another 17% travel to, or from, centres in southwestern Ontario. Truck trips in-transit between Michigan and New York account for only 6% of total international movements. Rail transport is also an important mode serving 31% of goods transport across the Niagara frontier. With the anticipated growth in international trade over the next 30 years, railway capacity improvements will be required to handle the corresponding increase in rail shipments and separate freight rail from passenger rail operations. With further integration between rail and truck operations, there will also be a need for good highway access to intermodal stations. International trade across the Niagara Frontier, through the Niagara Peninsula and to the GTA and other economic centres is of vital importance to the economic health of communities and industry in Central Ontario, the province and the country. The efficiency of the transportation system throughout this area is therefore essential. Tourism Tourism is one of the largest export industries in the Province. The Niagara Falls area is a key tourist node in central Ontario driven by the region s proximity to large urban populations in southern Ontario and the eastern seaboard of the U.S., significant attractions (e.g. Niagara Falls and Niagara-on-the-Lake) and the population-driven component of tourism (i.e. visiting friends and family). Tourist visitations to the Niagara area are expected to grow from 15 million annually today to between 22 million and 40 million by 2031 and the share of tourist visitations from the Greater Toronto Area (relative to cross-border visits) is expected to increase with the anticipated population growth in Central Ontario. For the needs assessment study, the conservative low growth scenario (22 million visitors annually) was assumed. While Niagara Falls remains the key tourist attraction, the wine industry, agri-tourism, eco-tourism, etc., are becoming more significant. Transportation improvements are needed to support tourism as an important economic growth sector. The City of Toronto is also a major tourism centre is Ontario with some 17 million visitors annually. Approximately 20% of tourists visiting Toronto arrive by auto from the Niagara frontier. The QEW is therefore a key tourism as well as trade corridor. The City of Hamilton is centrally located in the Golden Horseshoe Area encircling a large bay area that provides international port facilities, access to industry, and also provides recreational and tourism opportunities. John C. Munro Hamilton International Airport serves passengers traveling in and out of Hamilton, Toronto and Southern Ontario. In 2001, John C. Munro Airport handled approximately 900,000 passengers. This number is projected to increase significantly with planned expansion of the facility. Halton, like Hamilton, is uniquely situated as it lies at the heart of the Golden Horseshoe and is conveniently located between Toronto and Niagara Falls. With a majority of the Page 14

urban area within Halton adjacent to the QEW, businesses and attractions within the community have the opportunity to capitalize on significant volumes of tourist traffic traveling between Niagara Falls, the US border crossings and Toronto and the remainder of the GTA. In addition, Halton is home to a major portion of the Niagara Escarpment, a significant tourist attraction unto itself, offering unique eco-tourism opportunities. Land Use Policies The Regional Municipality of Niagara has recognized the importance of developing a transportation system that encourages land use and economic development south of the escarpment to alleviate urbanization pressures on the tender fruitlands/ wine-growing region along the QEW corridor between the Niagara Escarpment and Lake Ontario. In the City of Hamilton, most employment and community services are currently located below the escarpment while the majority of the City s planned growth opportunities are situated above the escarpment in Waterdown and the south Mountain districts. Transportation improvements to increase accessibility to strategic assets such as the Hamilton International Airport and other urban districts are needed to enable the City to achieve its full potential. The City of Hamilton is undertaking an integrated land use and infrastructure master plan (GRIDS) to review its growth aspirations, municipal service needs and land use policies. The Mid-Peninsula Transportation Corridor is a key component of this review. In Halton Region, there is a desire to constrain future population growth in the City of Burlington and avoid development in rural lands north of the urbanized area. Presently, the Niagara Escarpment Commission is seeking an amendment encompassing these lands that would effectively limit development in the area. Nonetheless, there remains a concern with the environmental impacts associated with a possible route through the existing Niagara Escarpment Plan area, the Parkway Belt West Plan area and future amended lands. Growing Congestion As population and employment grows in Niagara Region, the City of Hamilton and Halton Region and surrounding municipalities, levels of traffic congestion on existing highways will continue to increase. Several sections of the provincial highway network presently operate under high levels of congestion during peak periods such as the QEW and Highway 403 through Hamilton. This is particularly problematic as the QEW and Highway 403 are the only major freeways through the Hamilton area. Congestion on the QEW through Niagara Region is currently primarily related to tourism and truck traffic, which is anticipated to grow substantially in the future. Only 7% of all Niagara Region auto trips are destined to Hamilton and 1% to the GTA. In contrast, 15% of daily auto trips from Hamilton are destined to the GTA and 12% of all Burlington trips are destined to Hamilton. This results in high commuter travel between Hamilton and the GTA that is exacerbated by the long distance tourist travel during the summer, and international and local trucks traveling the QEW and Highway 403 corridors. Page 15

Within the 30-year planning horizon, it is projected that unacceptable traffic conditions will be experienced on the QEW and Highway 403. This will result in increased travel time, congestion, increased potential for collisions and fuel wastage. To address the projected levels of traffic growth, additional highway capacity from the Niagara Peninsula to the Greater Toronto Area will be required. Additional details pertaining to population and employment growth, trade growth, tourism growth, land use policies and projected traffic congestion in relation to the Need for the Mid-Peninsula Transportation Corridor is outlined in Supporting Document A (Niagara Peninsula Transportation Needs Assessment, January 2003). Summary of Transportation Problems The above trends underlie the forecast travel on the provincial highway system and future transportation capacity needs. Exhibit 2.1 shown below (source: Niagara Peninsula Transportation Needs Assessment - January 2003), illustrates existing and future transportation deficiencies on the provincial highway network in the analysis area. Exhibit 2.1 Existing and Future Transportation Deficiencies on Provincial Network Page 16

The following points summarize the identified transportation problems: There are existing capacity constraints on the QEW between the Freeman Interchange (i.e. QEW/Highway 403/Highway 497) in Burlington and the Burlington Bay Skyway and on the 4-lane section through St. Catharines; There are existing capacity constraints on the QEW during the peak hour between the Burlington Bay Skyway and St. Catharines. The widening of the QEW from 4 to 6 lanes through St. Catharines would provide some short-term relief to this problem; however, additional capacity in the QEW corridor is required in the near term (i.e. by 2011); There are existing capacity constraints in the QEW corridor in Halton and Highways 403 and 6 (north) in Hamilton; Near term capacity problems will be experienced as follows: - QEW through Halton, from the Burlington Bay Skyway to the Freeman Interchange and through St. Catharines; - Highway 407 through Halton; - Highway 403 between QEW and the Lincoln Alexander Parkway; - Highway 406 between Highway 58 and Geneva Street; - Capacity constraints on various Regional Roads throughout the Analysis Area Additional capacity problems will occur in the longer terms as follows: - QEW between Burlington Street in Hamilton and Highway 406 in St. Catharines, and between Mountain Road and Highway 420 in Niagara Falls; - Highway 407 through Halton; - Highway 6 from Highway 403 to north of Regional Road 5. Traffic forecasts indicate that by 2031, there will be an east-west capacity deficiency through the Niagara Peninsula of one to two freeway lanes. As the QEW is the only continuous freeway between the Niagara Frontier and Hamilton, travel through the area can be severely impacts by accidents, incidents, construction or maintenance activities on the QEW. Between Hamilton and Halton, traffic forecasts indicate a capacity deficiency of between four and six freeway lanes by 2031. The planned widening of Highway 403 from six to eight lanes will not, however, fully address this forecast deficiency. As Highway 403 is the only freeway route through west Hamilton, travel through this area can also be severely impacted by accidents, incidents, construction or maintenance activities. Failure to address these transportation deficiencies will result in greater traffic congestion and travel delay that will be costly to shippers, will deter recreational and tourist travel, and divert inter-regional commuter traffic to the municipal road system. The reduction in mobility and access will restrict the ability of Hamilton and Niagara and the broader region to attract new business and promote economic growth. Further, congested conditions are associated with an increase in accidents, greater fuel consumption and higher vehicle emissions. Page 17