Weather Normalization of MISO Historical Data Procedure Goal The goal of this weather normalization work was to provide a preliminary methodology for weather normalization as MISO does not currently have an established method to weather normalize historical MISO and Local Resource Zone (LRZ) demand and energy metered data. This weather normalized historical data will help provide a better comparison of historical data to forecast data since the historical data is adjusted for the impacts of weather. This is currently helpful for the load forecast comparison work of understanding the differences between the 2015-2024 Independent Load Forecast and the Aggregated Load Serving Entities (LSE) Forecast. Weather Data One weather station per LRZ was used. 1 For consistency, these are the same weather stations used by the Independent Load Forecast. Weather stations used are listed in the table below. The weather data was from the Midwest Regional Climate Center. Clean hourly load temperature data was available for 2010-2014. The hourly values were averaged to provide a daily average temperature. The daily average temperatures were used in the weather normalization models. For MISO models, the weather data was weighted by load and then summed to provide a MISO weather data set. LRZ Weather Station City 1 MINPLIS-ST PAUL INTL ARPT Minneapolis-St.Paul, MN 2 GENERAL MITCHELL INTL ARPT Milwaukee, WI 3 DES MOINES INTL AIRPORT Des Moines, IA 4 ABRAHAM LINCOLN CAPITOL AIRPORT Springfield, Ill 5 LAMBERT-ST LOUIS INTL ARPT St. Louis, MO 6 INDIANAPOLIS INTL AIRPORT Indianapolis, IN 7 CAPITAL CITY AIRPORT Lansing, MI 8 ADAMS FIELD AIRPORT Little Rock, AR 9 LAKE CHARLES REGIONAL AIRPORT LA US Lake Charles, LA Demand Linear econometric models were created for each season (summer and winter) for each LRZ and MISO. The daily average temperature on the peak date and the daily average temperature of 3 days before the peak date were used as potential variables in the models. Peaks of all seasonal peak months (June, July and August in summer; December, January and February in winter) from 2010-2014 were included in the models. 2 Model specifications are included below. 1 The scope of this weather normalization work is LRZs 1-9 since that was the scope of the 2015-2024 Independent Load Forecast. LRZ 10 would be added for future load forecast comparison and weather normalization work. 2 Only the summer non-coincident peak data was used for LRZ 9 since there was no linear model fit for data that included all summer months.
Normal weather for seasonal peak demand was determined by averaging the temperature values for the non-coincident peak date from 2010-2014. Energy Linear econometric models were created for each LRZ and MISO. Heating degree days (HDD) and cooling degree days (CDD) were the independent variables in the models. HDD and CDD were calculated from the daily average temperatures with a base value of 65 degrees Fahrenheit. Monthly data from 2010-2014 was used. The National Activity Index was an additional independent variable in order to include an economic trends variable in the models. However, it was not included in the final models as it was not significant in any models. Normal weather was determined from the NOAA 30 year normal HDD and CDD values. Weather Normalization Once the models were created, both actual weather values and normal weather values were run through the models and the historical data was normalized with the following equation: Normalized value = Actual value (Actual weather model prediction Normal weather model prediction) Future Improvements This is a preliminary weather normalization methodology that should continue to be built upon as more quality data is available. The data set was very limited by the fact that quality historical load data only went back to 2010. The robustness of these models could be greatly improved by access to a longer timescale of historical data.
Current Models LRZ 1 Energy Dependent Variable: LRZ_1 Date: 07/30/15 Time: 08:17 Sample: 1 60 Included observations: 60 C 6771859. 80626.58 83.99040 0.0000 CDD 6808.263 367.7174 18.51493 0.0000 HDD 1326.729 80.91628 16.39631 0.0000 R-squared 0.866886 Mean dependent var 8138765. Adjusted R-squared 0.862215 S.D. dependent var 703761.9 S.E. of regression 261232.1 Akaike info criterion 27.83291 Sum squared resid 3.89E+12 Schwarz criterion 27.93763 Log likelihood -831.9874 Hannan-Quinn criter. 27.87387 F-statistic 185.6020 Durbin-Watson stat 1.789234 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000
Summer Dependent Variable: LRZ_1 Date: 08/21/15 Time: 15:01 Sample: 2010M06 2014M08 Included observations: 15 C -2316.915 1944.080-1.191780 0.2547 S_PEAK 227.9043 23.57616 9.666726 0.0000 R-squared 0.877872 Mean dependent var 16449.11 Adjusted R-squared 0.868477 S.D. dependent var 1109.685 S.E. of regression 402.4388 Akaike info criterion 14.95653 Sum squared resid 2105441. Schwarz criterion 15.05094 Log likelihood -110.1740 Hannan-Quinn criter. 14.95552 F-statistic 93.44560 Durbin-Watson stat 2.006571 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000
Winter Dependent Variable: LOAD_1 Date: 08/21/15 Time: 15:05 Sample: 2010M12 2014M02 Included observations: 12 C 14565.06 123.5745 117.8646 0.0000 _1_BEFORE -23.99321 7.396877-3.243695 0.0088 R-squared 0.512708 Mean dependent var 14297.30 Adjusted R-squared 0.463978 S.D. dependent var 435.1092 S.E. of regression 318.5587 Akaike info criterion 14.51650 Sum squared resid 1014796. Schwarz criterion 14.59732 Log likelihood -85.09901 Hannan-Quinn criter. 14.48658 F-statistic 10.52156 Durbin-Watson stat 2.153837 Prob(F-statistic) 0.008814
LRZ 2 Energy Dependent Variable: LRZ_2 Date: 07/30/15 Time: 11:07 Sample: 2010M01 2014M12 Included observations: 60 C 4816309. 55673.22 86.51032 0.0000 CDD 5207.753 293.4847 17.74454 0.0000 HDD 505.2618 64.85733 7.790358 0.0000 R-squared 0.858801 Mean dependent var 5432310. Adjusted R-squared 0.853846 S.D. dependent var 457266.8 S.E. of regression 174813.2 Akaike info criterion 27.02953 Sum squared resid 1.74E+12 Schwarz criterion 27.13425 Log likelihood -807.8859 Hannan-Quinn criter. 27.07049 F-statistic 173.3426 Durbin-Watson stat 2.226141 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000
Summer Dependent Variable: LOAD Date: 08/21/15 Time: 15:17 Sample: 2010M06 2014M08 Included observations: 15 C -1244.682 1691.696-0.735760 0.4749 S_PEAK 161.9569 20.88513 7.754654 0.0000 R-squared 0.822246 Mean dependent var 11851.34 Adjusted R-squared 0.808572 S.D. dependent var 876.6126 S.E. of regression 383.5395 Akaike info criterion 14.86033 Sum squared resid 1912333. Schwarz criterion 14.95473 Log likelihood -109.4525 Hannan-Quinn criter. 14.85932 F-statistic 60.13466 Durbin-Watson stat 2.694287 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000003
Winter Dependent Variable: LOAD_2 Date: 09/10/15 Time: 14:19 Sample: 2010M12 2014M02 Included observations: 12 C 9655.437 104.1481 92.70869 0.0000 W_PEAK -23.88056 6.049054-3.947817 0.0027 R-squared 0.609150 Mean dependent var 9346.814 Adjusted R-squared 0.570065 S.D. dependent var 363.5531 S.E. of regression 238.3797 Akaike info criterion 13.93662 Sum squared resid 568248.7 Schwarz criterion 14.01744 Log likelihood -81.61971 Hannan-Quinn criter. 13.90670 F-statistic 15.58526 Durbin-Watson stat 2.142468 Prob(F-statistic) 0.002740
LRZ 3 Energy Dependent Variable: LRZ_3 Date: 07/30/15 Time: 11:11 Sample: 1 60 Included observations: 60 C 3264783. 41006.15 79.61690 0.0000 CDD 3000.967 153.3982 19.56324 0.0000 HDD 582.6352 47.54511 12.25437 0.0000 R-squared 0.871396 Mean dependent var 3883907. Adjusted R-squared 0.866884 S.D. dependent var 355226.1 S.E. of regression 129604.6 Akaike info criterion 26.43107 Sum squared resid 9.57E+11 Schwarz criterion 26.53579 Log likelihood -789.9321 Hannan-Quinn criter. 26.47203 F-statistic 193.1109 Durbin-Watson stat 1.591594 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000
Summer Dependent Variable: LOAD Date: 08/21/15 Time: 15:22 Sample: 2010M06 2014M08 Included observations: 15 C -5194.816 1699.309-3.057016 0.0092 S_PEAK 160.3046 19.95473 8.033413 0.0000 R-squared 0.832335 Mean dependent var 8450.667 Adjusted R-squared 0.819438 S.D. dependent var 450.3313 S.E. of regression 191.3574 Akaike info criterion 13.46973 Sum squared resid 476029.4 Schwarz criterion 13.56414 Log likelihood -99.02296 Hannan-Quinn criter. 13.46872 F-statistic 64.53572 Durbin-Watson stat 2.381379 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000002
Winter Dependent Variable: LOAD_3 Date: 08/21/15 Time: 15:22 Sample: 2010M12 2014M02 Included observations: 12 C 7013.479 89.69808 78.18984 0.0000 W_PEAK -25.24166 6.995030-3.608514 0.0048 R-squared 0.565621 Mean dependent var 6777.539 Adjusted R-squared 0.522183 S.D. dependent var 307.7293 S.E. of regression 212.7157 Akaike info criterion 13.70880 Sum squared resid 452479.8 Schwarz criterion 13.78962 Log likelihood -80.25281 Hannan-Quinn criter. 13.67888 F-statistic 13.02137 Durbin-Watson stat 1.845292 Prob(F-statistic) 0.004780
LRZ 4 Energy Dependent Variable: LRZ_4 Date: 07/30/15 Time: 11:13 Sample: 1 60 Included observations: 60 C 3336199. 45701.72 72.99941 0.0000 CDD 4139.434 173.2411 23.89407 0.0000 HDD 897.5147 58.77726 15.26976 0.0000 R-squared 0.910056 Mean dependent var 4194035. Adjusted R-squared 0.906900 S.D. dependent var 459191.6 S.E. of regression 140109.9 Akaike info criterion 26.58695 Sum squared resid 1.12E+12 Schwarz criterion 26.69167 Log likelihood -794.6085 Hannan-Quinn criter. 26.62791 F-statistic 288.3634 Durbin-Watson stat 1.748720 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000
Summer Dependent Variable: LOAD Date: 08/21/15 Time: 15:26 Sample: 2010M06 2014M08 Included observations: 15 C -4572.372 2854.966-1.601551 0.1333 S_PEAK 166.2649 33.69088 4.935013 0.0003 R-squared 0.651982 Mean dependent var 9510.268 Adjusted R-squared 0.625211 S.D. dependent var 555.0263 S.E. of regression 339.7871 Akaike info criterion 14.61808 Sum squared resid 1500919. Schwarz criterion 14.71249 Log likelihood -107.6356 Hannan-Quinn criter. 14.61708 F-statistic 24.35436 Durbin-Watson stat 3.017076 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000273
Winter Dependent Variable: LOAD_4 Date: 08/21/15 Time: 15:27 Sample: 2010M12 2014M02 Included observations: 12 C 7963.392 49.78047 159.9702 0.0000 W_PEAK -32.70895 2.587548-12.64091 0.0000 R-squared 0.941105 Mean dependent var 7455.040 Adjusted R-squared 0.935215 S.D. dependent var 399.3200 S.E. of regression 101.6385 Akaike info criterion 12.23173 Sum squared resid 103303.8 Schwarz criterion 12.31255 Log likelihood -71.39040 Hannan-Quinn criter. 12.20181 F-statistic 159.7925 Durbin-Watson stat 2.199407 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000
LRZ 5 Energy Dependent Variable: LRZ_5 Date: 07/30/15 Time: 11:21 Sample: 1 60 Included observations: 60 C 2655459. 31605.45 84.01905 0.0000 CDD 3316.296 90.19806 36.76683 0.0000 HDD 1240.517 46.11808 26.89871 0.0000 R-squared 0.959555 Mean dependent var 3640091. Adjusted R-squared 0.958135 S.D. dependent var 469881.2 S.E. of regression 96141.60 Akaike info criterion 25.83374 Sum squared resid 5.27E+11 Schwarz criterion 25.93846 Log likelihood -772.0122 Hannan-Quinn criter. 25.87470 F-statistic 676.1531 Durbin-Watson stat 2.135047 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000
Summer Dependent Variable: LOAD Date: 08/21/15 Time: 15:30 Sample: 2010M06 2014M08 Included observations: 15 C -3441.731 1456.455-2.363088 0.0344 S_PEAK 133.5100 16.28522 8.198231 0.0000 R-squared 0.837927 Mean dependent var 8491.094 Adjusted R-squared 0.825460 S.D. dependent var 479.4148 S.E. of regression 200.2897 Akaike info criterion 13.56097 Sum squared resid 521507.4 Schwarz criterion 13.65538 Log likelihood -99.70729 Hannan-Quinn criter. 13.55997 F-statistic 67.21099 Durbin-Watson stat 2.291887 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000002
Winter Dependent Variable: LOAD_5 Date: 08/21/15 Time: 15:31 Sample: 2010M12 2014M02 Included observations: 12 C 7664.366 126.7824 60.45290 0.0000 W_PEAK -38.61017 5.455346-7.077492 0.0000 R-squared 0.833585 Mean dependent var 6873.260 Adjusted R-squared 0.816944 S.D. dependent var 484.4077 S.E. of regression 207.2541 Akaike info criterion 13.65678 Sum squared resid 429542.4 Schwarz criterion 13.73760 Log likelihood -79.94068 Hannan-Quinn criter. 13.62686 F-statistic 50.09090 Durbin-Watson stat 2.458324 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000034
LRZ 6 Energy Dependent Variable: LRZ_6 Date: 07/30/15 Time: 11:23 Sample: 1 60 Included observations: 60 C 6950836. 82750.95 83.99705 0.0000 HDD 1706.712 107.5952 15.86234 0.0000 CDD 6582.044 319.8781 20.57673 0.0000 R-squared 0.882510 Mean dependent var 8407737. Adjusted R-squared 0.878388 S.D. dependent var 749843.7 S.E. of regression 261492.3 Akaike info criterion 27.83490 Sum squared resid 3.90E+12 Schwarz criterion 27.93962 Log likelihood -832.0471 Hannan-Quinn criter. 27.87586 F-statistic 214.0748 Durbin-Watson stat 2.005035 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000
Summer Dependent Variable: LOAD Date: 08/21/15 Time: 15:33 Sample: 2010M06 2014M08 Included observations: 15 C 2308.085 1552.344 1.486839 0.1609 S_PEAK 180.1412 18.64020 9.664122 0.0000 R-squared 0.877814 Mean dependent var 17297.33 Adjusted R-squared 0.868415 S.D. dependent var 684.3813 S.E. of regression 248.2567 Akaike info criterion 13.99037 Sum squared resid 801208.2 Schwarz criterion 14.08478 Log likelihood -102.9278 Hannan-Quinn criter. 13.98936 F-statistic 93.39526 Durbin-Watson stat 1.555046 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000
Winter Dependent Variable: LOAD_6 Date: 08/21/15 Time: 15:34 Sample: 2010M12 2014M02 Included observations: 12 C 17010.32 175.1307 97.12931 0.0000 W_PEAK -52.68535 12.18616-4.323377 0.0019 _1_BEFORE -50.53022 10.01067-5.047638 0.0007 R-squared 0.935809 Mean dependent var 15227.75 Adjusted R-squared 0.921544 S.D. dependent var 993.4398 S.E. of regression 278.2621 Akaike info criterion 14.30732 Sum squared resid 696868.3 Schwarz criterion 14.42855 Log likelihood -82.84393 Hannan-Quinn criter. 14.26244 F-statistic 65.60316 Durbin-Watson stat 2.123812 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000004
LRZ 7 Energy Dependent Variable: LRZ_7 Date: 07/30/15 Time: 11:27 Sample: 1 60 Included observations: 60 C 7344272. 97325.34 75.46105 0.0000 HDD 763.2887 113.2100 6.742238 0.0000 CDD 10262.28 561.5338 18.27545 0.0000 R-squared 0.875634 Mean dependent var 8389836. Adjusted R-squared 0.871270 S.D. dependent var 825524.8 S.E. of regression 296189.4 Akaike info criterion 28.08409 Sum squared resid 5.00E+12 Schwarz criterion 28.18881 Log likelihood -839.5228 Hannan-Quinn criter. 28.12505 F-statistic 200.6623 Durbin-Watson stat 2.106278 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000
Summer Dependent Variable: LOAD Date: 08/21/15 Time: 15:37 Sample: 2010M06 2014M08 Included observations: 15 C -4395.941 2779.966-1.581293 0.1378 S_PEAK 306.0071 34.68697 8.821959 0.0000 R-squared 0.856871 Mean dependent var 20093.12 Adjusted R-squared 0.845861 S.D. dependent var 1478.716 S.E. of regression 580.5524 Akaike info criterion 15.68940 Sum squared resid 4381535. Schwarz criterion 15.78381 Log likelihood -115.6705 Hannan-Quinn criter. 15.68840 F-statistic 77.82697 Durbin-Watson stat 1.607647 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000001
Winter Dependent Variable: LOAD_7 Date: 09/10/15 Time: 14:44 Sample: 2010M12 2014M02 Included observations: 12 C 14770.91 179.6894 82.20244 0.0000 W_PEAK -35.02935 9.699279-3.611542 0.0048 R-squared 0.566033 Mean dependent var 14217.13 Adjusted R-squared 0.522636 S.D. dependent var 469.7013 S.E. of regression 324.5237 Akaike info criterion 14.55361 Sum squared resid 1053156. Schwarz criterion 14.63442 Log likelihood -85.32164 Hannan-Quinn criter. 14.52368 F-statistic 13.04323 Durbin-Watson stat 2.229139 Prob(F-statistic) 0.004756
LRZ 8 Energy Dependent Variable: LRZ_8 Date: 07/30/15 Time: 11:33 Sample: 1 60 Included observations: 60 C 2170641. 37356.51 58.10611 0.0000 HDD 1322.810 74.90696 17.65937 0.0000 CDD 2916.212 95.08762 30.66868 0.0000 R-squared 0.945872 Mean dependent var 3063453. Adjusted R-squared 0.943973 S.D. dependent var 461745.3 S.E. of regression 109295.6 Akaike info criterion 26.09021 Sum squared resid 6.81E+11 Schwarz criterion 26.19492 Prob(F-statistic) 0.050696
Summer Dependent Variable: LOAD Date: 08/21/15 Time: 15:43 Sample: 2010M06 2014M08 Included observations: 15 C 45.60321 1160.649 0.039291 0.9693 S_PEAK 80.92897 13.18010 6.140238 0.0000 R-squared 0.743602 Mean dependent var 7166.453 Adjusted R-squared 0.723880 S.D. dependent var 345.3501 S.E. of regression 181.4717 Akaike info criterion 13.36364 Sum squared resid 428115.5 Schwarz criterion 13.45805 Log likelihood -98.22731 Hannan-Quinn criter. 13.36264 F-statistic 37.70252 Durbin-Watson stat 2.236198 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000035
Winter Dependent Variable: LOAD_8 Date: 08/21/15 Time: 15:44 Sample: 2010M12 2014M02 Included observations: 12 C 7981.921 471.6559 16.92319 0.0000 W_PEAK -74.79757 15.59038-4.797675 0.0007 R-squared 0.697132 Mean dependent var 5755.395 Adjusted R-squared 0.666845 S.D. dependent var 505.1696 S.E. of regression 291.5817 Akaike info criterion 14.33953 Sum squared resid 850198.6 Schwarz criterion 14.42035 Log likelihood -84.03717 Hannan-Quinn criter. 14.30961 F-statistic 23.01769 Durbin-Watson stat 1.891377 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000726
LRZ 9 Energy Dependent Variable: LRZ_9 Date: 07/30/15 Time: 11:38 Sample: 1 60 Included observations: 60 C 8234418. 168833.5 48.77243 0.0000 HDD 3813.702 448.4957 8.503321 0.0000 CDD 8493.291 428.1591 19.83676 0.0000 R-squared 0.900509 Mean dependent var 10704550 Adjusted R-squared 0.897018 S.D. dependent var 1373176. S.E. of regression 440663.5 Akaike info criterion 28.87866 Sum squared resid 1.11E+13 Schwarz criterion 28.98337 Log likelihood -863.3597 Hannan-Quinn criter. 28.91962 F-statistic 257.9576 Durbin-Watson stat 1.212458 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000
Summer Dependent Variable: LRZ_9 Date: 08/21/15 Time: 15:47 Sample: 1 5 Included observations: 5 C 29931.51 1195.785 25.03085 0.0016 _1_BEFORE 130.2512 16.16473 8.057737 0.0151 _1_AFTER -200.5207 23.46044-8.547185 0.0134 R-squared 0.974502 Mean dependent var 23722.46 Adjusted R-squared 0.949004 S.D. dependent var 322.0370 S.E. of regression 72.72354 Akaike info criterion 11.69492 Sum squared resid 10577.43 Schwarz criterion 11.46058 Log likelihood -26.23729 Hannan-Quinn criter. 11.06598 F-statistic 38.21856 Durbin-Watson stat 2.562371 Prob(F-statistic) 0.025498
Winter Dependent Variable: LOAD_9 Date: 08/21/15 Time: 15:48 Sample: 2010M12 2014M02 Included observations: 12 C 30435.25 1768.373 17.21088 0.0000 W_PEAK -155.1644 75.87529-2.044993 0.0712 _1_BEFORE -135.1023 66.62104-2.027923 0.0732 R-squared 0.812771 Mean dependent var 19657.87 Adjusted R-squared 0.771164 S.D. dependent var 1832.484 S.E. of regression 876.6008 Akaike info criterion 16.60230 Sum squared resid 6915861. Schwarz criterion 16.72353 Log likelihood -96.61379 Hannan-Quinn criter. 16.55742 F-statistic 19.53473 Durbin-Watson stat 0.886866 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000532
MISO Energy Dependent Variable: MISO Date: 08/21/15 Time: 15:57 Sample: 2010M01 2014M12 Included observations: 60 C 44378947 632735.8 70.13820 0.0000 CDD_MISO 52709.40 2275.695 23.16189 0.0000 HDD_MISO 11765.04 823.2316 14.29129 0.0000 R-squared 0.908736 Mean dependent var 55854684 Adjusted R-squared 0.905534 S.D. dependent var 5386726. S.E. of regression 1655626. Akaike info criterion 31.52596 Sum squared resid 1.56E+14 Schwarz criterion 31.63068 Log likelihood -942.7789 Hannan-Quinn criter. 31.56692 F-statistic 283.7823 Durbin-Watson stat 1.894040 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000
Summer Dependent Variable: LOAD Date: 08/21/15 Time: 16:00 Sample: 2010M06 2014M08 Included observations: 15 C -32900.24 16051.70-2.049642 0.0611 S_PEAK 1841.160 194.6295 9.459817 0.0000 R-squared 0.873156 Mean dependent var 118869.7 Adjusted R-squared 0.863399 S.D. dependent var 5328.399 S.E. of regression 1969.355 Akaike info criterion 18.13237 Sum squared resid 50418651 Schwarz criterion 18.22677 Log likelihood -133.9927 Hannan-Quinn criter. 18.13136 F-statistic 89.48815 Durbin-Watson stat 1.736687 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000
Winter Dependent Variable: LOAD_M Date: 09/10/15 Time: 14:57 Sample: 2010M12 2014M02 Included observations: 12 C 107140.7 1520.501 70.46405 0.0000 W_PEAK -542.0911 70.89452-7.646446 0.0000 R-squared 0.853947 Mean dependent var 96584.85 Adjusted R-squared 0.839341 S.D. dependent var 5508.065 S.E. of regression 2207.756 Akaike info criterion 18.38835 Sum squared resid 48741875 Schwarz criterion 18.46917 Log likelihood -108.3301 Hannan-Quinn criter. 18.35843 F-statistic 58.46814 Durbin-Watson stat 1.472194 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000017