COMPLEXITY, RESILIENCE, PROFITABILITY AND STABILITY SURVIVING THE COMPLEXITIES AND TURBULENCE OF THE 21-ST CENTURY J. MARCZYK PH.D. ONTONIX
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Growing Complexity: A Threat to Sustainability Our economy depends on the correct functioning of highly interdependent and complex systems, networks, processes and businesses. However, their growing complexity threatens their efficiency and profitability. Modern technologies increase dramatically their fragility, accentuating the problem.
Why Complexity Management Most problems threatening humanity are the result of the uncontrolled growth of complexity. In fact, excessive complexity is a formidable source of fragility. This is why problems of strategic and systemic nature should be approached from a complexity management perspective. Complexity and Resilience are new and fundamental KPIs of every modern business. Resilience (opposite to fragility) measures the capacity to absorb shocks.
Properties of Highly Complex Systems In highly complex systems, malfunction and even total non-function may not be detectable for long periods, if ever. Complex systems usually operate close to failure mode. The crucial variables are discovered by accident. The larger the system, the greater the probability of unexpected failure. Colossal systems foster colossal errors. And costs.
Complexity Beyond the Concept of Risk C Business x U Economy = Fragility Business fragility derives from two main sources: Excessive Complexity Turbulence/Uncertainty of economy/markets which acts as amplifier Complexity Management is a new and modern form of Risk Management, devised specifically for turbulent regimes.
Margine pro capite Profitability Complessità delle filiali aperte nel 2003 Complexity vs Profitability: Bank Branches 39052 39022 38991 39114 39083 Courtesy, Banca Popolare di Sondrio 39142 38657 38626 38930 38961 38899 38808 38777 38687 38869 38838 38749 38718 38596 Delta Complessità 38565 38504 38384 38353 38322 38412 38473 38534 38443 Complexity 38322 38353 38384 38412 38443 38473 38504 38534 38565 38596 38626 38657 38687 38718 38749 38777 38808 38838 38869 38899 38930 38961 38991 39022 39052 39083 39114 39142 38384 38412 38443 38473 38504 38534 38565 38596 38626 38657 38687 38718 38749
Complexity and Problem Classes We may distinguish two main classes of problem: Type A (persistent): Prolonged states of inefficiency, losses, low profitability, etc. Cause: excessive complexity Type B (sudden) : Unexpected collapse of critical systems, catastrophes, crises defaults, etc. Cause: excessive fragility
Type A Problems (Persistent)
Type B Problems (Sudden)
Measuring Business (Complexity) Resilience Business Complexity and Resilience may be determined based on ERP data, Financial Reports, stock market performance, etc. Data (ERP, BW) Data ONTONET Server Business Complexity Map Corporate Complexity Profile
The Complexity Map = CAT Scan of a Business Business parameter Resilience = 73.9% Inter-dependency between two variables Complexity Map of the economy of an EU member state
Complexity Profiling Finding the Key KPIs Complexity profiles provide a new means of ranking business KPIs and pointing out those that have the largest footprint and impact on the business.
Large SW Corporation Business Map Resilience = 82.8%
Getting the Big Picture: A Retail Bank + Ecosystem of Corporate Clients Conventional approaches focus on establishing a rating of a single entity. In a turbulent and interdependent economy it is important to establish the state of health (rating) of the entire eco-system of a bank s clients. Today, this is possible thanks to QCM technology and supercomputers. Hundreds of thousands of corporations can be analyzed as a system based on Balance Sheets or transactional data. The analysis can be performed grouping businesses in specific industry sectors. The result is the resilience of the entire bank-clients system.
Getting the Big Picture: A Bank + Ecosystem of Clients Resilience = 72.1% Analysis performed on a system of approx. 1000 corporate clients of a retail bank. Sectors of greatest exposure for the bank are indicated at the bottom of the chart on the right.
Complexity & Resilience on Wall St. Over 4000 public companies listed on Wall Street have been analyzed as a single interacting system. Analysis based on quarterly Balance Sheets. Total of 260 000 variables. Computing time: 4 hrs Analysis performed in collaboration with CINECA super computer center (Bologna). Courtesy, Assetdyne & Metack
Resilience of System of Major Insurance Companies Courtesy, Assetdyne
Resilience of the Global Financial System (GFRI) Courtesy, Assetdyne
The Bottom Line Complexity and Resilience are two new fundamental KPIs of a modern business. In a turbulent economy resilience is more important than sheer performance. In an interdependent economy, systemic analysis is of paramount importance. Yesterday: Too Big To Fail Today: Too Complex To Survive.