02 October 2012 Release of new South Sudan Gross Domestic Product (GDP) estimates for 2011, and revised figures for 2008-2010 The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS)is the official statistical agency of the Government of South Sudan. It is mandated to collect, analyse and disseminate all official economic, social and demographic statistics. It has conducted a variety of statistical activities in the past 5 years including the 2008 Census, the 2006 and 2010 rounds of the Sudan Household Health Survey (SHHS) and the National Baseline Household Survey (NBHS), 2009. It has published numerous reports including the annual statistical yearbook, poverty estimates for Southern Sudan and the Key Indicators for Southern Sudan. GDP measures the value of all final goods and services produced in a country over a given period. Nominal GDP is measured at current prices. Real GDP is measured at constant prices, and can therefore be used to calculate economic growth rates over time. South Sudan real and nominal GDP figures have been produced for 2011. Nominal Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of South Sudan in 2011 was 54 billion South Sudanese Pounds. Real GDP (2009 prices) for 2011 was 29 billion South Sudanese pounds. GDP growth rates over the past 4 years have been calculated: In addition to producing the new GDP figures for 2011, the Bureau has also revised nominal GDP figures for 2008 to 2011. From this, it has calculated GDP growth rates for the periods 2008-2009, 2009-2010 and 2010-2011. Table 1 contains the GDP growth rates for these periods. Table 1: GDP Growth Rates Year Growth rate of GDP (%) 2008 -- 2009 4.3 2010 4.2 2011 1.9 The GDP figures for 2008, 2009, and 2010 have been revised:
The Bureau has revised South Sudan s GDP estimates for the periods 2008, 2009 and 2010. The revised estimates are substantially higher mainly on account of the fact that a higher population growth projection has been used to estimate the household component of GDP than was earlier used. Another contributing factor to the change was better source data on imports, which are now believed to be lower than was initially thought. Since lower imports raise GDP, this has helped to raise the new estimates [see Technical Notes for information on how GDP is calculated]. The revised estimates for 2008 2010, as well as the new figures for 2011, can be found in the summary table 2, below. As is the practice, detailed GDP estimates have been uploaded on the Bureau s website www.ssnbs.org and will be published in the NBS Statistical Yearbook 2012. Estimating GDP is on-going process: The estimates will be vital to the government in formulating monetary and fiscal policies of the new Republic of South Sudan. They are also useful for South Sudan s external partners: these estimates have been agreed with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and will be published in the World Economic Outlook 2012. Production of GDP and other national accounts aggregates is a continuing process for the NBS, and a number of milestones are expected to be achieved over the coming months. Gross National Income (GNI) for South Sudan, which shows total income received by residents of South Sudan due to the absence of estimates of net primary income, will be disseminated when the Balance of Payments estimates are finalized. The Bureau is in the process of compiling GDP by activity. For the time being, and due to availability of data, it has only been possible to generate value-added estimates for the oil sector and the Government sector. Using the oil sector valueadded for the oil sector indicates that the oil sector constituted 60.2% of GDP and oil exports constituted 64% of GDP in 2011. In addition to this on-going work, in the course of the next year NBS will produce GDP figures using the production approach, which sums value-added of all industries. For more information, please contact:
David Chan Thiang Director of Economic Statistics National Bureau of Statistics Tel: +211 955213923 E-mail: chandavidthiang@yahoo.com
Technical notes What is GDP and what is GNI? GDP measures the value of all final goods and services produced in a country over a given period. GNI is the primary income that accrues to institutional units as a consequence of their involvement in the process of production or ownership of assets that may be needed for purposes of production. What method was used to calculate GDP? The GDP estimates for 2008 to 2011 were produced using the expenditure method. This method shows the use of the available goods and services in a country, and can be summed up in the following equation: GDP = Household Consumption + Governmental Consumption + Investments + Export Imports NBS will in the course of this and the next year, produce GDP figures using the production approach, which sums value-added of all industries. GNI is calculated as follows: GNI = GDP + Net primary income
Summary Table 2 Expenditure on GDP Current Prices - Million SSP Final consum exp, government 4,769 4,362 5,908 9,253 Final consum exp, households 10,468 11,051 11,959 18,527 Final consum exp, NPISH 394 640 776 388 Gross fixed capital formation 4,478 3,857 3,732 5,626 Changes in inventories 45-424 89 0 Gross domestic expenditure 20,154 19,485 22,464 33,795 Exports of goods and services 21,472 17,040 22,270 35,201 Imports of goods and services 9,703 9,146 10,228 14,747 GDP at current prices 31,923 27,379 34,507 54,249 Population 8,473,315 8,940,854 9,415,421 9,897,118 GDP per-capita at current 3,767.44 3,062.20 3,664.89 5,481.29 Expenditure on GDP 2009 constant Prices - Million SSP Final consum exp, government 4,920 4,362 5,584 6,521 Final consum exp, households 11,039 11,051 11,838 12,452 Final consum exp, NPISH 413 640 666 280 Gross fixed capital formation 4,880 3,857 3,633 4,350 Changes in inventories 47-424 88 0 Gross domestic expenditure 21,299 19,485 21,809 23,602 Exports of goods and services 15,373 17,040 16,773 16,414 Imports of goods and services 10,426 9,146 10,049 10,933 GDP at 2009 constant prices 26,247 27,379 28,533 29,084 Population 8,473,315 8,940,854 9,415,421 9,897,118 GDP per-capita at constant 3,098 3,062 3,030 2,939
DERIVED NUMBERS SHARES IN GDP AT CURRENT PRICES Government final consumption 15 16 17 17 Household final consumption 33 40 35 34 NPIHS final consumption 1 2 2 1 Gross fixed capital formation 14 14 11 10 Changes in inventories 0-2 0 0 Gross domestic expenditure 63 71 65 62 Exports of goods and services 67 62 65 65 imports of goods and services 30 33 30 27 GDP at current prices 100 100 100 100 SHARES IN GDP AT 2009 CONSTANT PRICES Government final consumption 19 16 20 22 Household final consumption 42 40 41 43 NPIHS final consumption 2 2 2 1 Gross fixed capital formation 19 14 13 15 Changes in inventories 0-2 0 0 Gross domestic expenditure 81 71 76 81 Exports of goods and services 59 62 59 56 Imports of goods and services 40 33 35 38 GDP at 2009 constant prices 100 100 100 100 ANNUAL CHANGES AT 2009 CONSTANT PRICES Government final consumption -11.4 28.0 16.8 Household final consumption 0.1 7.1 5.2 NPIHS final consumption 54.8 4.1-58.0 Gross fixed capital formation -21.0-5.8 19.7 Changes in inventories -1,004.8-120.8-100.0 Gross domestic expenditure -8.5 11.9 8.2 Exports of goods and services 10.8-1.6-2.1 Imports of goods and services -12.3 9.9 8.8 GDP at 2009 constant prices 4.3 4.2 1.9
Annual Changes in GDP by activity, 2009 Constant Prices, Percent GDP 4.3 4.2 1.9 Oil GDP 11.1-2.1-1.0 Non-oil GDP -2.7 11.7 5.0 Revisions 2008 2009 2010 GDP, revised estimates, million SSP 31,923 27,379 34,507 GDP, previous estimates, million SSP 28,505 24,946 30,488