Daron Acemoglu, James A. Robinson Why Nations Fail The Origins of Power, Prosperity, and Poverty Seminar, Selected Aspects of Sustainable Development, SS 2013 Rolf Kappel, NADEL 19.3.2007
A functional view of determinants of prosperity, and candidates for deeper determinants Stylised production function: y = A (K, H) y = value added per worker A = total factor productivity (level of technology, combination of production factors, cleverness of the organisation of the economy) K = stock of tangible capital H = stock of human capital Deeper determinants: what determines A, K, and H? Candidates: Geography Culture Institutions Acemoglu and Johnson propagate institutions. 2
A definition of institutions Institutions are the humanly devised constraints that structure political, economic and social interaction. They consist of both informal constraints (sanctions, taboos, customs, traditions, and codes of conduct), and formal rules (constitutions, laws, property rights). Throughout history, institutions have been devised by human beings to create order and reduce uncertainty in exchange. Together with the standard constraints of economics they define the choice set and therefore determine transaction and production costs and hence the profitability and feasibility of engaging economic activity. They evolve incrementally, connecting the past with the present and the future; history in consequence is largely a story of institutional evolution in which the historical performance of economies can only be understood as a part of a sequential story. 3
Institutions provide the incentive structure of an economy; as that structure evolves, it shapes the direction of economic change towards growth, stagnation, or decline. Douglass C. North (1991): Institutions. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 5, 1, p. 97. The reality of a political-economic system is never known to anyone, but humans do construct elaborate beliefs about the nature of reality beliefs that are both a positive model of the way the system works and a normative model of how it should work.... The dominant beliefs those of political and economic entrepreneurs in a position to make policies over time result in the accretion of an elaborate structure of institutions that determine economic and political performance.... The path dependence that results typically makes changes incremental... But change is continually occurring... as entrepreneurs enact policies to improve their competitive position. 4
The result is alteration of the institutional matrix, therefore revisions of perceptions of reality, and therefore new efforts by entrepreneurs to improve their position in a never-ending process of change.... The story... is a story of perceived reality beliefs institutions policies altered perceived reality and on and on. Douglass C. North (2005): Understanding the Process of Economic Change. Princeton, New Jersey: Princeton University Press, p. 2 f. Perceived reality Beliefs Policies Institutions 5
Nogales, Arizona, USA 6
Nogales, Sonora, Mexico 7
So close and yet so different (1) THE CITY OF NOGALES is cut in half by a fence. If you stand by it and look north, you ll see Nogales, Arizona, located in Santa Cruz County. The income of the average household there is about $30,000 a year. Most teenagers are in school, and the majority of the adults are high school graduates. Despite all the arguments people make about how deficient the U.S. health care system is, the population is relatively healthy, with high life expectancy by global standards. Many of the residents are above age sixty-five and have access to Medicare. It s just one of the many services the government provides that most take for granted, such as electricity, telephones, a sewage system, public health, a road network linking them to other cities in the area and to the rest of the United States, and, last but 8
So close and yet so different (2) not least, law and order. The people of Nogales, Arizona, can go about their daily activities without fear for life or safety and not constantly afraid of theft, expropriation, or other things that might jeopardize their investments in their businesses and houses. Equally important, the residents of Nogales, Arizona, take it for granted that, with all its inefficiency and occasional corruption, the government is their agent. They can vote to replace their mayor, congressmen, and senators; they vote in the presidential elections that determine who will lead their country. Democracy is second nature to them. Life south of the fence, just a few feet away, is rather different. While the residents of Nogales, Sonora, live in a relatively prosperous part of Mexico, the income of the 9
So close and yet so different (3) average household there is about one-third that in Nogales, Arizona. Most adults in Nogales, Sonora, do not have a high school degree, and many teenagers are not in school. Mothers have to worry about high rates of infant mortality. Poor public health conditions mean it s no surprise that the residents of Nogales, Sonora, do not live as long as their northern neighbors. They also don t have access to many public amenities. Roads are in bad condition south of the fence. Law and order is in worse condition. Crime is high, and opening a business is a risky activity. Not only do you risk robbery, but getting all the permissions and greasing all the palms just to open is no easy endeavor. Residents of Nogales, Sonora, live with politicians corruption and ineptitude every day. 10
So close and yet so different (4) How could the two halves of what is essentially the same city be so different? There is no difference in geography, climate, or the types of diseases prevalent in the area, since germs do not face any restrictions crossing back and forth between the United States and Mexico. Of course, health conditions are very different, but this has nothing to do with the disease environment; it is because the people south of the border live with inferior sanitary conditions and lack decent health care. But perhaps the residents are very different. Could it be that the residents of Nogales, Arizona, are grandchildren of migrants from Europe, while those in the south are descendants of Aztecs? Not so. The backgrounds of people on both sides of the border are quite similar. After 11
So close and yet so different (5) Mexico became independent from Spain in 1821, the area around Los dos Nogales was part of the Mexican state of Vieja California and remained so even after the Mexican- American War of 1846 1848. Indeed, it was only after the Gadsden Purchase of 1853 that the U.S. border was extended into this area. It was Lieutenant N. Michler who, while surveying the border, noted the presence of the pretty little valley of Los Nogales. Here, on either side of the border, the two cities rose up. The inhabitants of Nogales, Arizona, and Nogales, Sonora, share ancestors, enjoy the same food and the same music, and, we would hazard to say, have the same culture. 12
So close and yet so different (6) Of course, there is a very simple and obvious explanation for the differences between the two halves of Nogales that you ve probably long since guessed: the very border that defines the two halves. Nogales, Arizona, is in the United States. Its inhabitants have access to the economic institutions of the United States, which enable them to choose their occupations freely, acquire schooling and skills, and encourage their employers to invest in the best technology, which leads to higher wages for them. They also have access to political institutions that allow them to take part in the democratic process, to elect their representatives, and replace them if they misbehave. In consequence, politicians provide the basic services (ranging from public health to roads to law and order) that the citizens demand. 13
So close and yet so different (7) Those of Nogales, Sonora, are not so lucky. They live in a different world shaped by different institutions. These different institutions create very disparate incentives for the inhabitants of the two Nogaleses and for the entrepreneurs and businesses willing to invest there. These incentives created by the different institutions of the Nogaleses and the countries in which they are situated are the main reason for the differences in economic prosperity on the two sides of the border. (Acemoglu, Daron, Robinson, James A. (2012): Why Nations Fail. Crown Business, New York, p. 7f) 14
Inclusive institutions are the key determinants for inclusive growth Institutions can be divided into political institutions and economic institutions. Inclusive political and economic institutions are laws, regulations and rules that allow for the participation of all members of the society in political processes and economic development. They build on the principles of a democratic and pluralistic society, in which citizens are treated equal and are not discriminated against in pursuing their life goals. Inclusive growth is a sustainable economic growth process which encompasses all parts of the society and all sectors of the economy. Acemoglu and Robinson concede that growth is possible under extractive institutions, but they conclude that this growth process comes sooner or later to an end due to limits imposed by institutions. 15
Examples of inclusive institutions Free and fair elections; enforcement of political rights, civil liberties, other human rights; functioning central government, including the monopoly of legitimate violence ; separation of executive, legislative and judicial power; rule of law and control of corruption; functioning public services, e.g. in education, health, infrastructure; economic freedom; protection of property / contract rights; sufficiently functioning markets; commitment to internal and external economic stability; openness to international exchange of goods, services, and factors of production; etc. 16
Extractive institutions lead to perpetuated poverty and extractive growth Extractive institutions discriminate against (frequently large) parts of the population and privilege (frequently a few) others, both in the political and the economic arena. Political power is in the hands of a mostly small elite, and the exercise of this power is hardly constrained. It is also used to enrich this elite, which in turn contributes to maintain their power positions. When outsiders challenge the elite and successfully break through they have strong incentives to become co-opted or to implement new systems of similar institutions. Extractive institutions are the inverse of the inclusive institutions given before. 17
North Korea and South Korea by night 18
Deeper determinants of income and growth: policies, institutions and exogenous factors Income Endogenous, except natural resources Factor endowments Factor productivity Partly endogenous World market integration Policies and institutions Exogenous Geography 19
Implications for development cooperation Acemoglu and Robinson are not very optimistic about the role and impact of development cooperation. Aid agencies have a strong tendency to follow the hypothesis that extractive institutions exist because of ignorance. Political economy analyses tell us that in reality powerful actors tend to perpetuate extractive institutions because they benefit from them, not because they wouldn t know better. Those who challenge incumbent leaders run the risk of being oppressed or co-opted. Moreover, if challengers indeed come to power there is the risk of renewed extractive institutions. Hence, institutional change is determined by the power play on domestic political markets, and external actors have only very limited influence on the outcomes of these power struggles. Without institutional change the effect of aid often tends to end after flows of funds run dry: aid is then not sustainable. 20