ECONOMIC MIGRATIONS OF THE POLES Report by Work Service S.A.
TABLE OF CONTENTS INTRODUCTION 3 THE REPORT IN NUMBERS 4 PREFERRED COUNTRIES OF EMIGRATION 5 THOSE CONSIDERING ECONOMIC EMIGRATION 6 REASONS FOR EMIGRATION 10 BARRIERS TO EMIGRATION 11 INFLUENCE OF GEOPOLITICAL SITUATION 12 SURVEY METHODOLOGY 13
Ladies and Gentlemen, we are presenting the results of another edition of the survey on Poles readiness to economic emigration in the next 12 months. Every six months, we are checking the willingness to work outside the borders of our country, analysing the preferred direction of departures and the main reasons leading people to take such a decision. The survey results show that the percentage of those who are considering economic emigration remains at a constant level. Just like last year, every fifth respondent allows for the possibility to leave the country in search of work. Close to 6.4% of the economically active Poles (nearly 1.275 million vs 1.025 million in 2014) is definitely planning to emigrate. This is about 250 thousand more people than last year, when the percentage of those determined to leave was 5%. Young people, under 35 years of age, who represent 65% of all persons considering emigration, are still most interested in departure. Emigration seems to be more often contemplated alternative for people in financial difficulties, including those unemployed, low-paid, or with no education. A reference of survey results to the map of Poland further confirms our belief that the higher unemployment in the region, the more frequent the plans for finding work abroad are. This is clear evidence of Poles lack of faith in the possibility of change and finding a good job in our country. Poles still would preferably go to the countries of the European Union. This is probably supported by the ease of taking legal employment there. Among the most preferred directions of emigration are: Great Britain, Germany, Norway and the Netherlands. The number of Polish workers in the UK and Germany for several years has been steadily growing. Despite this, interest in the departures to those countries is maintained at a constant high level. This proves, on the one hand, that the local markets are not saturated with essential workers from abroad, and on the other hand - the positive evaluation of career development prospects for the Poles. Decisive increase in popularity of Norway this year may be due to better and better communication of that country with Poland and access to the broad social benefits at a relatively high income. Due to the difficult geopolitical situation, as well as the continuing conflict behind our eastern border, the Poles begin to consider leaving the country to more stable and secure regions. Our report shows that as many as 1/3 of the respondents allows for the possibility of emigration in the future due to the conflict in Ukraine. I invite you to read the report. Tomasz Hanczarek President Work Service S.A. Management Board
THE REPORT IN NUMBERS 1. Every fifth active or potential participant in the Polish labour market is considering economic emigration 2. The profile of potential emigrant: 63% are young people - under 35 years of age 29% are people during education or studying 31% people with secondary education 36% are from the cities up to 100 thousand residents of the eastern, southern and central regions 35% represent rural residents 63% are men 3. The main reason for departure - for 78% of Poles - higher earnings 4. The main emigration barrier - 3/4 of respondents indicated attachment to family and friends 5. Great Britain (27%), Germany (26%), Norway (11%) and the Netherlands (9%) are the most preferred directions of emigration 6. 1/3 of Poles claim that the conflict in Ukraine may in the future affect their decision to emigrate 4
PREFERRED COUNTRIES OF EMIGRATION The European Union countries strongly dominated (72%) among the preferred directions of emigration mentioned by the respondents. The most often mentioned ones are: Great Britain (27%), Germany (26%), Norway (11%) and the Netherlands (9%). Strong interest of Poles in emigration to Great Britain and Germany remains unchanged for several years. What is interesting, compared to the previous edition of the survey, the number of indications of Norway as the preferred direction of emigration increased by 5 percentage points. Thus, Norway is the third most popular destination among Poles considering leaving the country this year. This is a particularly attractive destination for residents of the northern Poland. There are already 10 flight connections from Gdansk to the cities in Norway that guarantee faster transport than road connection with quite a few Polish cities. Easy contact with the homeland, as well as a broad social coverage and high wages provide an additional incentive to emigrate. At the same time much less people than last year, is considering leaving to the Netherlands. In 2014, as many as 23% persons indicated the Netherlands as the preferred destination, compared to 9% this year. This change has both market and political basis. Poles thinking of emigrating to the Netherlands are more likely choose Germany now, mainly due to the geographical proximity and the introduction of the minimum wage. Last year appeared in the Netherlands negative opinions on the employment of Polish immigrants who were to take over the employment of local specialists. Therefore, there were propositions to limit the access of Polish people to the Dutch labour market. These messages also reached Poland, which could lead to a decrease of interest in emigration to the Netherlands. To which country you are considering to emigrate for work? GREAT BRITAIN 27% GERMANY 26% NORWAY 11% NETHERLANDS 9% AUSTRIA 4% AUSTRALIA 3% SWEDEN 2% DENMARK 2% CANADA 1% IRELAND 1% ITALY 1% USA 1% FINLAND 1% OTHER 3% 5
THOSE CONSIDERING ECONOMIC EMIGRATION Do you consider emigration for work in the next 12 months? 53,6 % DEFINITELY NOT 2,4 % I DON T KNOW /HARD TO SAY 6,4 % DEFINITELY YES 23,3 % RATHER NOT 14,3 % RATHER YES Compared to last year s survey, emigration plans of Poles have not changed. Still, every fifth active or potential participant in the labour market in Poland, is considering seeking work abroad in the next 12 months. The number of people who definitely are considering such a departure has slightly increased (6.4% compared to 5% in 2014.). This means that already 1.25 million economically active Poles is seriously thinking about leaving the country, which represents an increase compared to last year by 250 thousand people. 6
THOSE CONSIDERING ECONOMIC EMIGRATION AGE 18 TO 24 YEARS 25 TO 34 YEARS 35 TO 44 YEARS OVER 45 YEARS OVER 60 YEARS 32% 31% 18% 19% 0% 63% 37% EDUCATION PRIMARY VOCATIONAL SECONDARY HIGHER 27% 23% 31% 19% 50% 50% GENDER MAN WOMAN 63% 37% Men more often are considering emigration than women. As many as 63% of respondents thinking of going abroad are persons under 35 years of age. Compared to the previous edition of the survey, this means a decrease of 12 percentage points. In turn, from 26% to 37% increased the percentage of those who are considering emigration at the age of 35+. People with higher education are least likely to think about economic emigration, while those having secondary and basic education think about it most often. 7
THOSE CONSIDERING ECONOMIC EMIGRATION Among those considering economic emigration, there are usually the learners (29%) and people employed full-time (25%). What is interesting, only 19% of the unemployed and 11% of self-employed persons considers emigrating for work. Clear determiner influencing the emigration planning is the amount of remuneration. Persons deprived of any personal income accounts for 50% of those considering leaving the country, and 31% are the people working and employed at the minimum wage rate. Poles earning over PLN 3 thousand represent only 8% of people declaring their intention to seek employment outside Poland. People considering emigration often come from rural areas or cities up to 100 thousand residents. As many as 36% are the residents of villages, 36% - of small towns, and 16% - of medium and large cities. Among those who allow the possibility of leaving the country, only 12% are the residents of the metropolis. The regions of Poland where residents are most frequently considering emigration are still central, southern and eastern regions. According to CSO data, in February 2015 the highest number of unemployed was registered in these provinces. NORTH -WESTERN 14% FULL TIME PART-TIME/MANDATE/ORDER SELF-EMPLOYED SOUTH -WESTERN 10% FORMS OF EMPLOYMENT SOUTHERN 11% SOUTHERN 27% CENTRAL 20% EASTERN 18% 25% 15% 11% 51% DOES NOT WORK LEARNING, STUDIES 29% DOES NOT WORK UNEMPLOYED 19% 49% DOES NOT WORK PARENTAL, MATERNITY LEAVE 1% MONTHLY NET INCOME OF RESPONDENT LESS THAN PLN 2000 31% PLN 2000-2999 11% PLN 3000 AND MORE 8% REFUSED TO ANSWER 50% 8
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REASONS FOR EMIGRATION Please indicate the reasons that primarily lead you to emigration? HIGHER WAGES THAN IN POLAND HIGHER STANDARD OF LIVING LACK OF SUITABLE WORK IN POLAND BETTER PROSPECTS FOR PROFESSIONAL DEVELOPMENT THE OPPORTUNITY TO TRAVEL AND EXPLORE THE WORLD BETTER HEALTH CARE BETTER SOCIAL CONDITIONS FAMILY / RELATIVES LIVING OR INTENDING TO LIVE ABROAD OTHER 78% 44% 37% 37% 35% 29% 19% 9% 1% The most common motivator for Poles to emigrate is primarily the ability to raise the the amount of remuneration. Subsequently the factors associated with the comfort of living and social security are indicated. The most important reason indicated by 78% of respondents is therefore higher wages. For 44% of people raising the standard of living is the motivator to leave the country. 37% declared that lack of suitable work in Poland leads them to emigrate and the same number of respondents indicated a greater career prospects abroad. Poles are also motivated to seek employment abroad by a chance to explore the world and travelling (35%), better health care (29%), and better social conditions (19%). 10
BARRIERS TO EMIGRATION Which barriers(predominantly), keep you from going abroad to work? ATTACHMENT TO FAMILY AND FRIEND IN POLAND ATTRACTIVE WORK IN THE COUNTRY LACK OF LANGUAGE SKILLS LACK OF SUFFICIENT FUNDS TO GO ABROAD AND SETTLE DOWN LACK OF RELEVANT QUALIFICATIONS TO WORK ABROAD SMALL CHANCES TO FIND ATTRACTIVE JOB TOO LARGE CULTURAL DIFFERENCES AND THE MENTALITY OF THE PEOPLE ABROAD HEALTH PROBLEMS OTHER I DON T KNOW 74% 33% 28% 15% 13% 13% 12% 11% 6% 2% The biggest barrier for going abroad is attachment to family and friends (74%). Having a good job and lack of knowledge of foreign languages are indicated as another factors. Lack of money to go abroad and settle down is also important, which declares 15% of Poles. Compared to the results from the previous edition of the survey, family factors have become more important - the percentage of indications to attachment to family and friends increased about 7 pp, and also occupational factors - the importance of a good job in the country increased by 3 percentage points. 11
INFLUENCE OF GEOPOLITICAL SITUATION Does the conflict in Ukraine effect or will affect your decision to leave to work abroad? 32,0 % FOR NOW IT DOES NOT BUT MAY EFFECT IT IN THE FUTURE 3,5 % IT HAS AN EFFECT ALREADY 2,5 % I DON T KNOW/HARD TO SAY 62,0% HAVE NO EFFECT AND WILL NOT HAVE IT IN THE FUTURE The geopolitical situation on our eastern border may also affect the Polish labour market. The study shows that the conflict in Ukraine may determine the decision to emigrate of 32% of the economically active Poles. Currently, it already effects the decision of 3.5% of respondents. However, the majority of respondents do not base their choice for emigration or stay in Poland on the conflict in Ukraine. This group included both people planning to emigrate, as well as planning to stay in the country. 12
SURVEY METHODOLOGY The survey was carried out on a sample of N = 633 persons employed, unemployed, learners and on those maternity and parental leave. The sample was selected from a nationwide representative sample of adult Poles N = 1000 (consistent with the structure of the population in terms of gender, age, education, and class size and province of residence). Retirees, pensioners and home carers were excluded. The results were weighted on the basis of the structure of recruitment variable, acc. to CSO data. The accuracy of the results depends on the number of group under examination and response rates. The maximum measurement error for the entire sample of N=633 is +/-3.96%. The survey was conducted using computer-assisted telephone interviews under CATIBUS project. Data presented in the Economic Migrations of Poles report have been prepared and developed on the order of Work Service S.A. by Millward Brown institute S.A. The survey was conducted in the period 6-9.03.2015. 13
MORE INFORMATION : Krzysztof Inglot Representative of Management Board of Work Service S.A. M: 508 040 345 E: krzysztof.inglot@workservice.pl Andrzej Kubisiak Head of Press Office of Work Service S.A. M: 512 176 030 E: andrzej.kubisiak@workservice.pl