Sustainable Development: The Role of Information and Communication Technology

Sustainable Development: The Role of Information and Communication Technology Alexander Schatten www.schatten.info KORSD Oct. 2009

Agenda Information & Communication Technology Environmental Footprint ICT supporting Mitigation Adaptation ICT for Teaching and Public Awareness

ICT Environmental Footprint Resources Consumption (Electronic) Waste Energy Consumption Green IT Resource Efficiency: A Factor of 10 Desktop Computing Data-Centers and Services Software as a Service Cloud Computing Accounting ICT as amplifier of unsustainable behaviour Photo from ezioman (flickr)

ICT and Resource Consumption ICT is consuming significant amounts of valuable resources Many resources are scarce or produced under questionable conditions Valuable are mostly not recycled Recycling is done in developing countries Companies need to invest into recyclingfriendly product ( cradle-to-cradle ) Having the whole product-lifecycle in mind at design-time Avoiding toxic substances like mercury, PVC, flame retardants Having recycling programs in place Allowing easy dismantling of products 4

Example Mobile Phone: Coltan Congo: Most important source for Coltan & one of largest conflict-regions in the world Coltan: Columbite Tantalite Mineral that is used in a broad range of electronic products 5

Example: Microprocessor Production of a Microprocessor In the 80s ~ 12 Chemical Elements Now ~ 60 Chemical Elements! 6 Photo by Aranya Sen (flickr)

Electronic Waste (EU) Photo digitalsadhu (flickr) 2/3 Photo Greenpeace 1/3 treated appropriately Treatment of Electronic Waste within EU. Numbers from EU Commission (2008).7................................................

Global Population & Energy Population Growth Energy Consumption Source: UNO: The World at Six Billion http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/sixbillion/sixbillion.htm Source: Energy Information Administration (U.S. Government): International Energy Outlook 2009 http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/highlights.html

Green IT Numbers $ 8-9 billion Estimated energy bills of datacenters worldwide 25% Typical IT budget for average company ~ $ 1.900 Annual expenses for powering and cooling single server (2500 $) 5 years Doubling of Energy Consumption of Servers (2000-2005) 70-80% Utilisation of mainframes (70s, 80s) ~ 30% Of Servers run under 3% peak and average utilisation; actually are using power and cooling for doing no work 50-70% Average energy consumption for cooling (HP, Uptime Inst. Study says: 60-70%) 18 Million Server 2002 122 Million Server 2020 (estimated) Source: McKinsey and Company, part of a report titled "Revolutionizing Data Center Efficiency, Malone, C. and Belady, C. (2006) Metrics to Characterise Data Centre & IT Equipment Energy Use. Proc. Digital Power Forum, Richardson, TX, USA, September. InfoWorld, Ted Samson (2008) Smart2020 Report Borderstep Institute

Energy Consumption & Carbon-Footprint by Computers (Examples) (incl. power consumption & embodied energy, data centers, PCs, network devices) Germany 2004: 28 million metric tons CO 2 (Air Traffic 22MT) OECD Global 2010: 10% of total energy consumption 830 million metric tons CO 2 equals 2% of global carbon footprint assumed to quadruple by 2020 Some Computer Science Issues in Creating a Sustainable World, Jennifer Mankoff, Robin Kravets and Eli Blevis, IEEE Computer Magazine (2008) Data from The Climate Group, OECD, Presentation 2009 from Klaus Fichter Photo from jmsuarez (Flickr)

The Power of 10 : Game Consoles ~ 200 W Playstation 3 Xbox 360 ~ 50 W Playstation 2 ~ 20 W Nintendo Wii 13

The Power of 10 : PCs PC with CRT ~ 150-250 W ~ 100-200 W PC with LCD ~ 50 W Thin Client with LCD ~ 10-45 W Notebook ~2W OLPC / XO Photos from Flickr: Gene, Plutor, John Pastor, One Laptop per Child 14...

Data-Centers and Services Hummer Strategy or Virtualisation, Cloud Computing and Software as Service? 17 Photo from Paul Keleher, Flickr

Green IT : Virtualisation and In-House Services Datacenter In-House Replace Volume Servers with varying utilisation or low utilisation with virtual machines running in one power-server Remove Fat-Clients where not absolutely necessary and replace them with thin-clients and web-applications or thin-clients using remote desktops Provide support for tele-working (virtual private networks ) Get consulting for green operation of data-center including issues like: Optimising Facilities Highest possible operation temperature Reuse of heat (e.g. for building/office heating) Better: get rid of all services that can be outsourced (see following slides) 18

What is Cloud Computing? Cloud computing is the IT equivalent of the Energy Grid Rent services and computing power as needed Use Cloud Computing to scale as needed Typical Cloud Services Operation of Virtual Servers (e.g. Amazon EC2) Network storage solutions (e.g. Amazon S3) Database Services (e.g. Amazon SimpleDB) Application Runtime Environments (e.g. Google AppEngine) Middleware Services (e.g. Amazon Message Queue) E-Commerce Applications (e.g. Payment Services) Various Services (e.g. Zoho Office )

Amplifying Unsustainable Behaviour Rebound Effects More efficient steam engines higher coal consumption More efficient cars ( Prius ) cheaper per kilomerter higher mileage More efficient production ( Tata cars ) much more cars on the street higher overall consumption Enabling Effects: Modern logistics: Flights become cheaper more travel Transportation becomes more efficient and cheaper transport over greater distances Unplanned Effects: More Communication does not lead to less travel, the opposite is true Photo by photohome_uk (flickr) 26

Agenda Information & Communication Technology Environmental Footprint ICT supporting Mitigation Adaptation ICT for Teaching and Public Awareness 27

Why ICT? E.g. UPS: Left-turns no longer allowed! Photo by iirraa (flickr) Because optimisation opportunities will emerge, that you never might have thought of!

The Flat World Thomas Friedman, The world is flat We move(d) from Command and Control to Collaborate and Connect Economy/Society 3 Billion people reach for the western lifestyle It is impossible to fulfil this demand with the current approach Economy, knowledge, work-force, natural-resources are global issues

In a flat world and a connected economy there are hardly local problems Any significant problem in a country like Indonesia, India, China or USA is immediately a global problem.

Example Indonesia: The Economist (2006) Indonesia is losing almost 2m hectares of forest a year (an area about the size of Wales or Massachusetts) Illegal logging also carries big costs for the human beings involved. Wellmanaged forests continue to provide wood, and therefore revenue, indefinitely. But those that have been overexploited, or simply carelessly run let alone razed will yield little or no money in the future. The government of Indonesia (which has the world's third-biggest tropical forests, after Brazil and Congo, but the biggest timber trade) estimated its annual losses at around $3 billion. [due to illegal logging]

IT as a Supporter for Mitigation efforts Green Supply Chains and E-Government Think Global! Smart Production End-to-end Accounting (e.g. Life Cycle Analysis, Input/Output Calculations) De-Materialisation Smart Buildings If airplanes were build like buildings, you wouldn't fly in them, Stephen Selkowitz, LBNL Smart Grids Although the ICT sector s own emissions will rise as global demand for products and services increases, these are estimated to be five times less than the emissions that can be reduced through the enabling effect., Smart 2020 Report 33

Possible Contributions in Different Fields (Smart 2020 Report) Taken from Smart 2020 Report

Green Global Supply Chains Measure and Connect is foundation for optimisation Technologies like RFID Event-based Systems Data-warehouses Tag and Track items through whole supply chain Trash that Thinks (Saar and Thomas, 2003) Work with (near) real-time data Standardisation (usage of standardised protocols and practices) Integrate with e-government applications to enhance transparency and better resource and waste management Check whether suppliers from second and third world countries follow policies Global optimisation of supply chains (from supplier to production lines to transportation to customer) 35

Industrial Production Industrial Production is one of the largest contributors to global emissions (Smart 2020 report): approx 23% total emission in 2002 Uses nearly 50% of global electrical power Modernise development of production lines; software development, simulation, data exchange is outdated compared to business information systems End-to-end monitoring of production lines ICT systems allow transparency and accountability Optimisations in motor systems Integration into global supply-chain optimisation Be aware of rebound effect(s)! Picture from ralphbijker (flickr) 37

Impact of Dematerialisation Replace paper-based business with electronic business Online Media Reduce business travel Tele-Working E-Commerce E-Government Taken from Smart 2020 Report

ICT Supporting Monitoring & Adaptation

Degradation of Biodiversity Devastating declines of amphibian species around the world are a sign of a biodiversity disaster larger than just frogs, salamanders and their ilk, according to researchers from the University of California, Berkeley., Science Daily "There's no question that we are in a mass extinction spasm right now," said David Wake, professor of integrative biology at UC Berkeley. "Amphibian declines may be the window into the future of what we can expect as humans continue to alter the environment on a global scale. Only now are government officials finally willing to acknowledge that humans have caused so much damage to the environment that they are even affecting global climate change. Photo by Adolf Schatten Vredenburg et. Al, 2007

Climate Change The observed increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases (GHGs) since the preindustrial era has most likely committed the world to a warming of 2.4 C (1.4 C to 4.3 C) above the preindustrial surface temperatures. The committed warming is inferred from the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimates of the greenhouse forcing and climate sensitivity. The estimated warming of 2.4 C is the equilibrium warming above preindustrial temperatures that the world will observe even if GHG concentrations are held fixed at their 2005 concentration levels but without any other anthropogenic forcing such as the cooling effect of aerosols. The range of 1.4 C to 4.3 C in the committed warming overlaps and surpasses the currently perceived threshold range of 1 C to 3 C for dangerous anthropogenic interference with many of the climate-tipping elements such as the summer arctic sea ice, Himalayan Tibetan glaciers, and the Greenland Ice Sheet. Ramanathan and Feng, "On avoiding dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system: Formidable challenges ahead", Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States, Vol.105, No.38 (2008) Photo by hadamsky (flickr)

ICT Supporting Adaptation Environmental Information Systems (Biodiversity Research, Sensor Networks, GEOSS,...) Connected global information systems and models Low-carbon-intensive technologies: e.g., more efficiency and search for alternatives (transparent supply chains, dematerialisation of workspaces) Support in case of catastrophes like robust dependable and communication technology Visualisation Geographical information systems Simulation and modeling adapted to certain regions e.g. Tourism prediction in Austria Water level rise Development of agriculture 45

Resilience Allenby, B., Fink, F. 2005. Toward Inherently Secure and Resilient Societies, Science 309: 1034-1036 46 Our global ICT infrastructure has to be given more consideration Communication in case of unreliable parts of the infrastructure or attacks Economic Crisis showed global-dependencies leading to Domino-Effect Centralisation vs. De-Centralisation vs. Local-Pooling Dependency Analysis & Management Mid-Term and Long-Term Benefits over Short-Term (Cost) Benefits Open Systems vs. Closed Systems Developing Countries R&D, and company strategies should target not only performance and price but also resilience Photo by mactent (flickr)

Agenda Information & Communication Technology Environmental Footprint ICT supporting Mitigation Adaptation ICT for Teaching and Public Awareness 47

Teaching and Public Awareness Climate change, many environmental problems, resource depletion are Global issues Highly connected systems Depending on many parameters and hence Very difficult to Understand and Communicate Tools are needed to enhance the understanding of the systemic nature of such problems, particularly for Teaching purpose Public awareness as Political Instrument IT can provide experience in modeling, visualisation, game development to provide such tools 48

Video-Game: Makes you Think 49 Taken from http://makesyouthink.net/games/climate-challenge

Game: Operation Climate Control 50 Taken from http://www.operationclimatecontrol.co.uk

Game: Operation Climate Control 51 Taken from http://www.operationclimatecontrol.co.uk

Conclusion Despite of environmental impact of ICT, clever ICT strategies can help to reduce much more emissions than it will produce ICT Footprint: direct front-lines Efficient IT (Green IT) Target/Demand oriented IT (Cloud Computing, SAAS,...) Dematerialisation effects Resource consumption and treatment of electronic waste Amplification Effects by ICT IT as enabler for efficiency measurements in other fields Measure and Connect Green Supply Chains : Global Optimisations, E- Government Certified Processes Smart Houses, Grid Optimisations, Production Automation,... ICT supporting Adaptation (sensor networks, environmental monitoring, modelling, search for alternatives...) ICT for public awareness, teaching, politics,...

Dr. Alexander Schatten Senior Researcher: Vienna University of Technology IT Consulting www.schatten.info alexander@schatten.info alex_buzz (Twitter) best-practice-software-engineering.blogspot.com Mantra Large Yet Unexploited Potential of ICT for SD ICT People Welcome Interdisciplinary Projects