Alm. Brand A/S Q3 2009 Conference Call 1
Non-life 4th largest in DK 500,000 customers* 200,000 Plus customers* Banking 65,000 customers* Supports non-life Life and pension 80,000 customers* Supports non-life Double-customers 25,000* Growth: 19% * Number of households/units Alm. Brand Three business areas Alm. Brand Bank Banking operations Holding company Alm. Brand A/S Alm. Brand Liv og Pension Life and Pension operations Alm. Brand Forsikring We take care of our customers Non-life operations Copenhagen Re Reinsurance in run off 2
Alm. Brand Highlights Q3 2009 Highly unsatisfactory loss af DKK 220m Writedowns of DKK 337m in bank Very satisfactory investment performance Increasing premium level initiated New strategy in bank 3
Alm. Brand Non-life Highlights Q3 2009 Result: DKK 42m profit Q1-Q3: DKK 231m Total premiums: DKK 1.2bn Q1-Q3: DKK 3.5bn CR: 99.1 (goal 93) Q1-Q3: 98.4 Expense ratio: 17.8% Q1-Q3: 19.2% 500,000 customers Non-life insurance 4
Mio.kr. 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Alm. Brand Non-life Expenses for major claims 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Q1- Q3 2009 Expense (2009 prices) Anticipated expense New tariffs and terms Claims-limiting activities 5
DKKm 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Alm. Brand Non-life Weather claims Anatol 2,2 mia. Erwin 833 mio. 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Q1- Q3 2009 Expense (2009 prices) Expense (Anatol and Erwin) Anticipated expense Several lighting claims Tendency towards heavier weather especially rain => Increase in premiums 6
Alm. Brand Non-life Claims frequency *) 130 128 126 124 122 120 118 116 114 Q3 2006 Q3 2007 Q3 2008 Q3 2009 * Excluding major and weather claims 7
Good investment return Lower costs Higher claims ratio Expensive major claims Burglaries are very expensive Increase in premiums New claims-limiting activities Discounting effect: 1.0% higher claims ratio Q1-Q3: 1.5% Weaker growth because of economic recession Alm. Brand Non-life Impact on performance Pct. 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 8 Combined ratio 88,1 91,4 96,5 95,8 98,4 3,6 2,8 4,1 2,9 3,7 19,0 19,2 19,6 19,4 20,5 63,9 69,0 73,9 72,3 76,3 2006 2007 2008 Q1-Q3 2008 Q1-Q3 2009 Claims Operating expenses Net reinsurance
Alm. Brand Non-life Combined ratio Combined ratio ex. weather claims and major claims 2006 2007 2008 81.4 81.6 84.3 Major claims 5.6 7.4 9.6 Q1-Q3 2008 84,0 8,0 Q1-Q3 2009 86,5 10,4 Weather claims 2.2 4.3 1.9 2,7 3,0 Run-off result* -1.1-1.9 0.7 1,1-1,5 Combined ratio 88.1 91.4 96.5 * A negative run-off result equals a run-off gain 95,8 98,4 9
100 95 90 85 80 75 70 Alm. Brand Non-life CR to be improved 2007-Q1 2007-Q2 2007-Q3 2007-Q4 2008-Q1 2008-Q2 2008-Q3 2008-Q4 2009-Q1 2009-Q2 2009-Q3 Alm. Brand Topdanmark Tryg (P&E DK) Premium increases of DKK 200m. Claims limiting activities 10 CoR
Alm. Brand Banking Highlights Q3 2009 Result: DKK 312m loss Before writedowns: DKK 25m profit Result Q1-Q3: DKK 1,309m loss Before writedowns DKK 91m profit Interest margin: 2.1% Net interest up by 10% 65,000 customers 25,000 Double-customers Solvency: 16.5 % Core Capital: 11.0 % Banking 11
Mio.kr. 20.000 18.000 16.000 14.000 12.000 10.000 8.000 6.000 4.000 2.000 0 18.617 18.114 17.635 12.980 12.386 11.791 11.078 11.143 Alm. Brand Banking Deposits and loans 17.209 16.793 12.392 15.689 15.526 11.386 Q1 2008 Q2 2008 Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Reduced loans and advances New strategy Deposits Loans 2,7 2,5 2,3 2,1 1,9 1,7 2,3 Interest margin p.a. 2,0 1,8 1,8 1,7 1,9 2,1 Fixed interest deposits Certain loans track Danmarks Nationalbank Deposits in Nationalbanken at low interest 1,5 2005 2006 2007 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Interest margin Ytd 2009 12
Alm. Brand - Banking Loan portfolio and credit losses Lending 30 September 2009 DKKm Losses and writedowns DKKm Q3 Losses and writedowns DKKm YTD Loss rate % Q3 Loss rate % YTD Retail lending 3,310 0 14 0.0% 0.4% Car finance 1,078 5 22 0.4% 1.9% Agriculture 1,156 0 63 0.0% 5.6% Other commercial lending 1,364 14 37 1.1% 2.8% Security financing 4,033 110 314 2.7% 7.3% Lending to subsidiaries 1,281 0 0 0.0% 0.0% Investment properties 1,738 0 382 0.0% 19.0% Residential mortgage deeds 920 30 54 3.2% 5.5% Commercial mortgage deeds 293 74 110 22.1% 36.5% Property development projects 353 71 367 19.1% 76.3% Private Contingency Association - 33 37 - - Total 15,526 337 1,400 2.2% 8.6% 13
Alm. Brand - Banking Loan portfolio and credit losses Lending 30 September 2009 DKKm Losses and writedowns DKKm Q3 Losses and writedowns DKKm YTD Loss rate % Q3 Loss rate % YTD Retail lending 3,310 0 14 0.0% 0.4% Car finance 1,078 5 22 0.4% 1.9% Agriculture 1,156 0 63 0.0% 5.6% Other commercial lending 1,364 14 37 1.1% 2.8% Security financing 4,033 110 314 2.7% 7.3% Lending to subsidiaries 1,281 0 0 0.0% 0.0% Investment properties 1,738 0 382 0.0% 19.0% Residential mortgage deeds 920 30 54 3.2% 5.5% Commercial mortgage deeds 293 74 110 22.1% 36.5% Property development projects 353 71 367 19.1% 76.3% Private Contingency Association - 33 37 - - Total 15,526 337 1,400 2.2% 8.6% 14
Alm. Brand - Banking Loan portfolio and credit losses Lending 30 September 2009 DKKm Losses and writedowns DKKm Q3 Losses and writedowns DKKm YTD Loss rate % Q3 Loss rate % YTD Retail lending 3,310 0 14 0.0% 0.4% Car finance 1,078 5 22 0.4% 1.9% Agriculture 1,156 0 63 0.0% 5.6% Other commercial lending 1,364 14 37 1.1% 2.8% Security financing 4,033 110 314 2.7% 7.3% Lending to subsidiaries 1,281 0 0 0.0% 0.0% Investment properties 1,738 0 382 0.0% 19.0% Residential mortgage deeds 920 30 54 3.2% 5.5% Commercial mortgage deeds 293 74 110 22.1% 36.5% Property development projects 353 71 367 19.1% 76.3% Private Contingency Association - 33 37 - - Total 15,526 337 1,400 2.2% 8.6% 15
Alm. Brand - Banking Loan portfolio and credit losses Lending 30 September 2009 DKKm Losses and writedowns DKKm Q3 Losses and writedowns DKKm YTD Loss rate % Q3 Loss rate % YTD Retail lending 3,310 0 14 0.0% 0.4% Car finance 1,078 5 22 0.4% 1.9% Agriculture 1,156 0 63 0.0% 5.6% Other commercial lending 1,364 14 37 1.1% 2.8% Security financing 4,033 110 314 2.7% 7.3% Lending to subsidiaries 1,281 0 0 0.0% 0.0% Investment properties 1,738 0 382 0.0% 19.0% Residential mortgage deeds 920 30 54 3.2% 5.5% Commercial mortgage deeds 293 74 110 22.1% 36.5% Property development projects 353 71 367 19.1% 76.3% Private Contingency Association - 33 37 - - Total 15,526 337 1,400 2.2% 8.6% 16
Alm. Brand Banking Writedowns Especially on corporate mortgage deeds and a single property development project Increasing contributions to Private Contingency Association 10,00% 9,00% 8,00% 7,00% 6,00% 5,00% Writedowns p.a. 8,60% 9,0% 8,0% 7,0% 6,0% 5,0% Accumulated writedown ratio 8,27% 4,00% 4,0% 3,00% 2,00% 1,00% 0,00% -1,00% 1,75% -0,17% -0,27% 2006 2007 2008 Q1-Q3 2009 3,0% 2,0% 1,0% 0,0% 2,25% 1,15% 0,66% 2006 2007 2008 Q1-Q3 2009 Excluding credit-related value adjustments on mortgage 17
Alm. Brand Banking Funding situation Long cheap funding DKK 1,3bn paid back in September Relative growth in deposits Capital from Alm. Brand A/S of DKK 300m Alm. Brand converts DKK 250m of liable capital into share capital Received DKK 856m through the Second Bank Package Procurement of capital Repayment structure for loans issued by Alm. Brand Bank Subordinated 4% Millions DKK 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 Long term funding 35% Deposits, retail 51% 500-2009 2010 2011 2012 Deposits, w holesale 10% 18
Alm. Brand Banking New strategy (1) Discontinued activities Investment properties Mortgage deeds Trading and investments Loans to property development projects Corporate finance Leasing and loans through car dealers 19
Alm. Brand Banking New strategy (2) Continued activities Private, SME and agriculture Deposits/loans Investments Leasing Fleet Alm. Brand Markets Analysis PM 20
Alm. Brand Life and Pension Highlights Q3 2009 Result: DKK 70m profit Q1-Q3: DKK 107m Collective bonus potential: DKK 120m Shadow account balance: DKK 80 Gross premiums: DKK 136m Growth: -7% Q1-Q3: DKK 466m Provisions: DKK 11.2bn 80,000 customers Life & Pension 21
Alm. Brand Life and Pension Investments Q1-Q3 2009 Very satisfactory performance Very strong investment return 7.2% Low costs => Collective bonus potential: DKK 120m Return on investments (OE) 4.4% Return on investments (customers) 7.2% Bonds etc. 6.1% Equities 26.4% Properties 3.7% Total equity exposure about 10% Rate of interest (customers) p.a. 3.0% 22
Copenhagen Re Sold on 29 May 2009 Approved by financial supervisory authorities on 15 October 2009 Actual sale completed Not affecting the expectations for the group as a whole 23
Alm. Brand Highlights Still unsatisfactory performance Writedowns has slowed down Many claims Premium increases New strategy for the bank will change scope and costs 24
Disclaimer The statements made in this presentation are based on current expectations, estimates and projections made by management. All statements about future financial performance are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those set forth in or implied by the statements. All statements about future financial performance made in this presentation are solely based on information known at the time of the preparation of the last published financial report, and the company assumes no obligation to update these statements, whether as a result of new information, future events, or otherwise." 25
Alm. Brand A/S Q3 2009 Conference Call 26