Forensic Science Pathfinder project: evaluating increased forensic activity in two English police forces

Forensic Science Pathfinder project: evaluating increased forensic activity in two English police forces John Burrows Roger Tarling Alan Mackie Helen Poole Beth Hodgson Home Office Online Report 46/05 The views expressed in this report are those of the authors, not necessarily those of the Home Office (nor do they reflect Government policy).

Forensic Science Pathfinder project: evaluating increased forensic activity in two English police forces John Burrows Roger Tarling Alan Mackie Helen Poole Beth Hodgson Online Report 46/05

Acknowledgements The evaluation team, from management consultants Morgan Harris Burrows (MHB), is grateful for the support of a considerable number of people, particularly in Greater Manchester Police (GMP) and Lancashire Constabulary, where the Pathfinder project was run. In particular, thanks go to the Chief Officers, their Scientific Support Managers and staff, Statistical Departments, File Preparation Units and the many investigating officers who provided assessments of the value of forensic support. It would not have been possible to assess the contribution of forensic science to the prosecution process without the help of the Crown Prosecution Service, and we are grateful to the two Chief Crown Prosecutors, Ian Rushton of Lancashire and Stuart Bale of GMP for the substantial work undertaken. The support of Magistrates Court Committees (MCCs) was also essential to the evaluation and to developing the model of the impact of forensic science. We are particularly grateful to Paul Backhouse of Lancashire MCC for his work in providing and analysing data. MHB s work involved regular and close liaison with the Forensic Science Service (FSS) Pathfinder team and we are indebted to Joy Curwen (Project Manager), Stuart Bell and Robin Hoole, as well as to Becky Duncliffe who collated and co-ordinated data from the FSS and acted as the link between the FSS and the evaluation team. The project was overseen by a Steering Group chaired by Steven Wilkes of the Crime Reduction Programme Unit, and thanks are due to all members of this group in particular to Phil Moore of Association of Chief Police Officers (ACPO) for his additional advice and guidance. The work benefited throughout from the expert support of Dr Alaster Smith, Penny Woolnough, and Dick Oldfield. Finally thanks are due to Sylvia Chenery and Anna Bromhall of the University of Huddersfield who were closely involved at the initial stages, and to MHB s Richard Stockley who assisted a great deal in data analysis. ii

Contents Acknowledgements Summary ii iv 1. Introduction and background: Forensic Pathfinder project objectives 1 The project impact 2 Scope and content of the Pathfinder project 2 Approach 2 2. Forensic activity in context 5 Forensic activity in the period before Pathfinder 7 3. Increased forensic activity 9 DNA Expansion Programme: scope and context 9 Delivery: the role of Forensic Examiners 12 Resources and costs involved in the Pathfinder project 13 4. Forensic activity during the initiatives 16 Implementation of Pathfinder 16 Training 17 Liaison 17 Management structure 17 Working practices 17 The context: crime trends nationally and in the target forces 18 5. Assessing the value of forensic identifications 31 The police assessment and outcome exercise 31 CPS tracking and assessment exercise 37 6. Modelling attrition and the impact of forensic science on property crime detection 42 Attrition 42 Scene attendance to identification 48 Detection to case resolution 50 7. Impact and cost effectiveness 54 Impact 54 Cost effectiveness 55 Glossary of terms used in the report 57 References 58 iii

Summary This report presents the evaluation of the Forensic Science Service (FSS) Pathfinder project, which aimed to reduce crime, tackle attrition (the shortfall between the number of crimes reported and subsequently prosecuted) and increase public confidence in the criminal justice system by assessing the effectiveness of applying enhanced forensic science techniques to scenes of volume crime. Pathfinder focused on increasing the forensic examination of scenes of crime (as opposed to samples from suspects), focusing on: the use of Low Copy Number DNA (LCN) a super-sensitive technique for recovering DNA at crime scenes; the use made of footwear evidence; the use made of toolmark evidence; and improving the ability to link crimes where forensic evidence is available, on serial offenders and other crime scenes through the use of the Forensic Led Intelligence System (FLINTS). The project was undertaken in seven police divisions (four in Greater Manchester Police [GMP] and three in Lancashire Constabulary). Two broad crime types were targeted: burglary and vehicle crime. The achievements of the project: LCN DNA: the work with this highly sensitive technique indicated potential for wider use in respect of volume crimes, particularly vehicle crime offences. While swabs were taken at a larger proportion of crime scenes compared to conventional DNA (SGM plus), the rate at which useable samples were obtained was quite low (15% of all swabs). Against this, the success achieved when profiles were loaded on the National DNA Database (NDNAD), or when speculative searches were carried out, was high (63% led to matches with suspect profiles). The major doubt relating to LCN concerns its future costs. The main reservation expressed by police practitioners from the outset of the project was how far without the financial support made available through Pathfinder police forces could afford to apply the technique in relation to volume crime. Footwear: the experience of Pathfinder in relation to footwear was mixed. The taking of footwear impressions from crime scenes increased by 18 per cent across both forces, but there was virtually no difference between Pathfinder and non-pathfinder divisions. Similarly, there was an increase in the number of cases in which footwear comparisons were used in court (albeit involving only a few hundred cases in each force per year), but little difference was found between project and control areas. The pattern seems to suggest that the message about the value of footwear spread well beyond the Pathfinder divisions, particularly in Greater Manchester Police (GMP). The fact that the major improvements occurred in GMP, a force with little previous systematic use of footwear and where FSS activity was focused, supports this view. Toolmarks: developmental work with toolmarks shared many of the problems faced in relation to footwear such as a widespread scepticism that this approach could yield any substantial dividends in relation to volume crime. While recoveries seemed to increase, especially in GMP, toolmarks were still only recovered from 1.6 per cent of crime scenes. The computer software utilised in the trial was reported to be fairly easy to operate, but the strong impression given was that insufficient effort was put into exploiting possible intelligence links. As a result, no suspect to scene or scene to scene links were identified through this mechanism. iv

Identifying serial offenders and linked crimes: the development of FLINTS forensic intelligence packages during Pathfinder was slow in the first half of the project and only really took off once the database had been populated and additional resources made available. Overall, 78 packages were produced in the course of the project and additional detections were attributable to FLINTS. The recipients of a high proportion of packages were, however, often unwilling to regard them as very useful generally arguing that the information was not sufficiently timely. Many packages clearly did not lead to further detections. It can be argued, however, that work on this front assisted in promoting the importance of linking offenders with crime scenes, and one positive sign is that both forces have started investing in linking mechanisms of their own. Despite the sizeable dividend provided by LCN, it was not realistic to expect a project of this scale to succeed in bucking the trend by increasing clear-ups in the two forces. In fact, the number of clear-ups fell in both forces and, while GMP experienced a fall in crime, Lancashire experienced about the largest rise of all forces in England and Wales (partly due to the early introduction of the National Crime Recording Standard). Against this backdrop, comparing the twelve months before the initiative (1 May 1999 to 31 April 2000) with the period of the initiative itself (1 May 2000 to 31 April 2001), reveals that: there was actually a fall in the number of detections of the Pathfinder crimes in the Pathfinder divisions (a drop of some 17%) this was, however, a smaller percentage reduction (by 1.1%) than in non-pathfinder divisions; in the seven target divisions, crime fell by some three per cent, but this decrease was not as large as the six per cent decrease reported in the non-pathfinder divisions. The project received funding of some 1.2 million and provided an uplift of some 20 per cent in expenditure on scientific support services in the Pathfinder divisions. It led to 390 additional identifications by means of 308 LCN matches, achieved at a project cost of some 3,255 each (compared to an average cost per forensic identification of 2,800). This figure, however, represents unit costs against the FSS project budget, and not the real cost forces would pay for LCN in respect of volume crime. There were no additional matches arising from the work with footwear and toolmarks, but the target divisions enjoyed an increase of 99 fingerprint identifications as a spin off from the project. Attrition in forensic identifications The evaluation examined attrition between forensic identifications and conviction. An exercise was carried out to track the identifications derived from all different types of contact trace material (i.e. fingerprints, DNA SGM plus and DNA LCN). Nearly three-quarters of these identifications related to detected cases, where: in 45 per cent of cases, the forensic identification proved to be the first link with the suspect; in three-quarters of cases (75%), police officers reported the forensic match made a contribution in building the case against the suspect; in 17 per cent of cases, the identification led to the detection of other crime(s), some of which yielded more than one additional detection on average, an identification produced one-and-a-half detections. Just over a quarter of the identifications (27%) did not lead to a detection. Of these: in six out of ten cases (60%), the suspect was eliminated from police enquiries, often because he/she had lawful access to the scene at which his/her contact trace material was found; in 14 per cent of cases, the suspect could not be found; v

in the remaining cases (26% overall), the most frequent explanations were that the match was only a partial hit, or that it would not have been in the public interest to proceed. In respect of cases that were charged, the Crown Prosecution Service (CPS) evaluated the importance of forensic evidence in the prosecution process. Of these: in 86 per cent of cases, the defendant pleaded guilty to the original offence or to an alternative charge; in only four per cent of cases did the disposal take place following a trial there was an equal split between those who were subsequently acquitted or convicted. In 11 per cent of those cases that proceeded to trial, the defendant was not convicted despite the forensic evidence linking him or her to the offence. The evaluation led to the development of a model of the impact of forensic science in crime detection, based on earlier developmental work by the FSS. The calculations suggest that, for the burglary and vehicle crime offences recorded in England and Wales: 3.3 per cent would be detected by virtue of conventional approaches to forensic evidence (namely the use of fingerprints and conventional, SGM plus, DNA) and four per cent by these methods combined with enhanced forensic activity (i.e. LCN DNA, footwear and toolmarks); 2.6 per cent of the crimes would result in a conviction, offences taken into consideration (TICs) or caution by virtue of conventional approaches and 3.1 per cent by these methods and enhanced forensic activity (i.e. LCN DNA, footwear and toolmarks). Comparing these results with those derived from the initial FSS model is not straightforward. The starting point of the revised model is all recorded burglary and vehicle crime offences, whereas the FSS model focused only on those crime scenes that are visited by Scenes of Crime Officers (SOCOs). Overall, the FSS model indicated that forensic activity leads to the detection of 0.9 per cent of recorded crime. The revised model puts this at three to four times higher; at 3.3 per cent from fingerprint and SGM plus evidence alone, rising to four per cent if the contribution of LCN, footwear and toolmarks could also be taken into account. The development of an evidence-based model enables wider inferences to be drawn about the value of forensic science in the investigation of volume property crime. Key messages are: the examination of 100 burglary and vehicle crime scenes will typically yield seven fingerprint identifications, 2.6 SGM plus identifications and 1.4 LCN DNA matches; overall, for every 100 forensic identifications an average of 101 detections are obtained; forensic science is a contributory factor (but not necessarily the critical factor) in achieving one third of the 177,000 detections of burglary and vehicle crime offences achieved in England and Wales last year; typically 100 identifications will yield 79 convictions, cautions or TICs. The most important improvements in detections (and thus convictions, cautions or TICs) will be obtained from improving performance between scene attendance and identification. By contrast, improvements made after identifications, or between detection and case resolution, promise fewer dividends. The key issues that need to be addressed are listed below: Increasing the number of crime scene examinations. While diminishing returns will set in at some point, there is almost certainly scope for improvement on current levels of attendance for vehicle crime in particular. Improving the recovery of contact trace material at crime scenes visited. While there may not be much opportunity to boost the recovery of fingerprints and conventional DNA, more use could probably be made of enhanced techniques such as LCN. Boosting match rates through more comprehensive coverage of suspect forensic databases. vi

1. Introduction and background: Forensic Pathfinder project objectives The objective of the study was to measure the impact of increasing forensic activity by the police service. The initiative was carried out in seven police divisions: four divisions of the Greater Manchester Police (GMP) and three divisions in Lancashire Constabulary. Work targeted two broad crime types: burglary (both dwelling and non-dwelling) and vehicle crime (both the theft of, and from, vehicles). Increased collection of forensic material was expected to help reduce attrition (the shortfall between the number of crimes reported and offenders subsequently prosecuted), contribute to reduced levels of crime and increase public confidence in the criminal justice system. The project focused on increasing the level of forensic examination at scenes of volume crime: trialling super-sensitive DNA retrieval techniques, improved footwear identification techniques, and the forensic testing of tools/toolmarks and intelligence linking. The National DNA Expansion Programme was operating at the same time, markedly increasing scene attendance and the collection of standard (SGM plus) DNA. The super sensitive form of DNA analysis that formed part of the Pathfinder project was called Low Copy Number or LCN. Using this technique 1 it is possible, for the first time, to obtain profiles from very degraded material. A second, and crucial feature of LCN, is that it enables DNA profiles to be obtained not only from very small stains of blood or other body fluids but also from other types of material, in particular skin cells. LCN analysis opens up the possibility of obtaining an offender s DNA profile from personal objects he or she may have left at a crime scene or from objects he or she might have touched while at the scene. In either case, the offender may have left behind skin cells from which LCN can extract a DNA profile. It is no longer necessary for the offender to leave behind bodily fluids or hair in order to be uniquely identified. The evaluation sought to account for the impact of this programme as far as possible. The evaluation had five key aims, which were to: Assess the impact of these techniques in increasing the likelihood of a crime being detected and an offence being brought to justice (either through a conviction, caution or offence taken into consideration); Assess the impact of these techniques in improving efficiency and timeliness in dealing with offenders from arrest to sentence, particularly persistent young offenders; Improve knowledge of the extent to which applying forensic science techniques results in bringing more offenders to justice and in linking more crimes to known offenders; Identify cost effective approaches and good practice in using forensic science techniques to investigate and prosecute those suspected of burglary and theft of and from vehicles; and, Assess the resource implications of this approach for each agency in the criminal justice system. 1 It remains a form of Second Generation Multiplex (SGM) plus, but the added sensitivity of the technique is achieved by increasing the number of amplification cycles (from 28 to 34) in the chemical, or polymerase chain (PCR), reaction. 1

The project impact The rationale for the Pathfinder project had two key strands. It was argued that the increased use of forensic science can make a significant contribution to crime detection and reduction through the incapacitation of prolific offenders. It was also anticipated that such an intervention could serve to reduce crime through a deterrence effect. An allied, but separate, argument was that an increased use of physical evidence would serve to increase the effectiveness and efficiency of prosecution, trial and sentencing; reduce attrition at all stages of the criminal justice system, and increase public confidence in that system. Scope and content of the Pathfinder project Pathfinder was launched with a project budget of 645,000 from the Home Office Crime Reduction Programme. 2 The project was managed by the Forensic Science Service (FSS), which provided a Project Manager and a team of Forensic Examiners (FEs) to be trained and put in post in each of the seven target divisions. The funding was initially planned to run from the start of June to the end of December 2000, with the option to extend to a full year. Towards the end of 2000 this option was exercised and funding was increased to a total of 850,000 to cover the operation of the project until the end of May 2001. The aim was not to extend the number of burglary and vehicle crime scenes examined, but to obtain more forensic material LCN, fingerprints, footwear marks and tool mark impressions from those that were visited. In practical terms, this was achieved by the FEs who were trained to take LCN swabs and apply digital imaging joining Scenes of Crime Officers (SOCOs) or Crime Scene Examiners (CSEs) on their normal visits to crime scenes. SOCOs were also provided with toolmark casting equipment and so on. Training was also provided by the FSS to all involved in forensic processes to achieve an increased awareness of forensic science amongst operational police officers, scientific support staff and personnel working within the criminal justice system. Another important element of the Pathfinder package was the FSS involvement in interpreting forensic evidence (for example installing a footwear system (SICAR), and a tool mark system (TDS) that captured and searched digital images of indented impressions on a database. Improving the ability to link different forms of forensic evidence was achieved through the use of the FLINTS computer system. 3 These responsibilities would fall to an FSS Intelligence Unit. The seven divisions hosting the Pathfinder work together accounted for 37 per cent of the recorded crime in GMP and Lancashire in the preceding year (June 1999 to May 2000). The four GMP divisions accounted for two-thirds of the total crime count in the seven Pathfinder divisions combined. The GMP divisions accounted for one-third of the total crime in that force (33%), whereas the Lancashire divisions accounted for something over a half (55%) of the crime in that force area. Approach Discussions with the two police forces predated announcements made about the setting up of the DNA Expansion Programme, which allocated substantial funds for additional DNA testing and thus affected practices relating to the retrieval of DNA across all police forces in England and Wales. 4 The evaluation was required to assess the impact of the two initiatives 2 Project evaluation costs are not included in this sum. 3 FLINTS is a system developed by West Midlands police which generates intelligence packages that depict links between offenders, scenes and offender-scene links. 4 At the time the evaluation was commissioned the sum of 34 million had been made available in 2000/01. On 31 August, 2000 (after the evaluation started) the Prime Minister announced that an extra 109 million would be provided to ensure Britain s active criminal population would be registered on the national NDNAD within three years (The Times, 1 September). Subsequently an additional 59 million was earmarked over the same period (2001 to 2004) to enhance police support services for forensic science. The whole programme eventually received a total of 202 million over four years. 2

simultaneously. The basic approach adopted was that the remaining ten divisions of the GMP and Lancashire police forces would be used as controls, so that developments particular to the seven Pathfinder divisions could be identified. The evaluation comprised three broad elements: a process evaluation ; a data gathering and modelling exercise; and a case tracking mechanism to examine the outcome of cases where forensic identifications were achieved. Process evaluation One of the first steps in the process evaluation was to establish exactly how the two forces planned to implement the two programmes. Interviews with Crime Managers, SOCOs and force Scientific Support Managers (SSMs) were carried out at an early stage. The initial aim was to address both 'past practice' and 'future plans' to provide a picture of the operational context of the programmes. Issues addressed included: policies in the collection of DNA evidence; compliance with those policies amongst the various 'implementation' divisions; how each force anticipated targeting burglary and vehicle crime; and how investigating officers, SOCOs and others likely to be affected were consulted/advised. Monitoring and modelling the forensic process The evaluation remit posed several challenges particularly those arising from the timing and circumstances surrounding the initiatives and their evaluation. Better evaluative designs usually rely on 'before' and 'after' assessment in 'test' and 'control' sites (for a useful summary in respect of policing see Karchmer and Eck, 1998). Aside from the difficulties of eliciting the impact of two parallel initiatives in the seven Pathfinder divisions, the circumstances of the planned roll-out presented barriers to adopting a before/after plus test/control approach. The difficulties lay in several areas. The DNA Expansion Programme constituted a national initiative, which would affect all police forces, thus ruling out any opportunities for comparisons between 'test' and 'control' sites. The way in which the DNA Expansion Programme was being implemented (unlike Pathfinder) meant that its application was very likely to vary between forces; furthermore the actual application of funds in different forces would only come to be known as the roll out progressed. This variation was largely due to the way in which funds for forensic testing were channelled. Consequently the two forces selected, GMP and Lancashire, could not automatically be assumed to be representative of the way in which the other 41 forces in England and Wales used their DNA Expansion Programme funds. While both initiatives laid considerable emphasis on taking DNA samples, the Pathfinder project only targeted recovery from scenes of crime while the DNA Expansion Programme had an impact on both scenes of crime and criminal justice (CJ) or suspect sampling. The Pathfinder programme intended to boost the use made of a number of forensic techniques, notably footwear evidence and tools/toolmarks, that appeared to have limited adoption by the police service generally. Modelling techniques were employed to explore the different impacts. The basic premise underpinning the methodology can be presented in two very simplified statements. The changes identified in the ten control divisions, as against their previous practices, would primarily represent the impact of the DNA Expansion Programme. The changes identified in the seven 'implementation' divisions, as against the ten control divisions, would primarily represent the impact of the Pathfinder Programme. 3

Data were collected 5 for two periods: one year prior to the start of the two projects 1 June 1999 to 31 May 2000; one year during which the two projects ran from 1 June 2000 to 31 May 2001. An important element of the data gathering exercise was to assess the resource implications of each intervention for the different agencies in the criminal justice system. Data on input costs are an important aspect of the information model. The expectation was that most of the costs involved in the collection and processing of forensic evidence would be obtained from records and accounts that were routinely kept by the FSS and others. Data from these records were collated in line with the parameters set out in the Home Office s Economic and Resource Analysis (ERA) Unit's 'input template' (Legg and Powell, 2000). The research design acknowledged the need to 'position' both GMP and Lancashire in relation to other forces with regard to their use of forensic evidence. The evidence indicates that there are considerable differences in the way forces use different forensic techniques. In relation to DNA testing, for example, there have long been substantial differences in force submission rates. (HMIC 2000; 2002). Assessing the value of forensic identifications the case tracking approach A forensic identification does not automatically lead to an individual being charged, prosecuted and/or convicted. There may be a number of reasons for this: the suspect may be able to provide a plausible explanation of why his or her contact trace material was recovered at the crime scene. Alternatively, the identification may be reported after the suspect has been linked to the crime by other means, rendering follow-up superfluous. There may also be good reasons not to prosecute the individual concerned even where a case against him or her could be made. In short, any assumption that the value of a DNA match can simply be established by a subsequent search on the status of the offence involved whether it is cleared up, ongoing, or filed as undetected would be totally misplaced. To determine what happens to cases after the police have been notified of a forensic identification between an offender and a scene, the evaluation encompassed a case tracking exercise that identified: the officer in the case (OIC); and, Crown Prosecution Service (CPS) prosecutors. The OICs and CPS lawyers were interviewed and asked to make their own assessment of the value of the forensic match, in building a case against the suspect or prosecuting the suspect respectively.. A total of just over 1,700 forensic identifications were followed up, with evaluation forms returned by OICs in relation to some 71 per cent of these (the full details are presented in Chapter 5). All sampled cases that resulted in a prosecution were identified in the records held by Magistrates Courts, in order to provide details of their final disposal and other features of the court case. Preparation of a model of the forensic process Most mechanisms routinely used in the monitoring of scientific support work do not go beyond the point at which an identification has been reported. One of the aims of the evaluation was, therefore, to provide a more detailed picture of the use of forensic evidence downstream of the identification. The research there sought to further develop a concept originally started by the FSS namely a model of the way in which forensic science can affect the ability of the police to detect crime. 5 The data collected in these different time windows varied according to the focus of the different enquiries. So, for example, comparisons were made between the number of offences recorded, crime scenes attended etc. in each but, for the impact on forensic identifications, attention was focused on the identifications reported in the latter period only. Details are given in relevant chapters of the report. 4

2. Forensic activity in context This chapter of the report outlines the work of the Scientific Support Departments in the two forces prior to the start of Pathfinder and the Expansion Programme. It presents an overview of the key performance indicators of these forces in relation to other forces, outlining their use of common forensic techniques, and the identifications they yield, in order to provide a background to the initiatives that were launched there. The evaluation sought to provide a detailed step by step account of the forensic process, represented in a statistical model, with a view to enabling wider inferences to be drawn about the value of forensic science in the investigation of volume property crime. The usefulness of this model is, however, dependent upon the extent to which the two forces are broadly representative of others in their scenes of crime work and in the use of different forensic techniques. There is no typical force in terms of forensic activity, but Table 2.1 presents some key items of information which can be used to position GMP and Lancashire amongst the 43 police forces in England and Wales. Table 2.1: Expenditure and staffing of Scientific Support in GMP and Lancashire: ratio to total expenditure and staffing (a) Scientific support expenditure as % of all force expenditure All scientific support staff as % of all force staff GMP 2.6 1.9 Lancashire 1.9 2.1 All forces, England and Wales 1.7 to 3.3 1.5 to 3.0 (a) 1999-2000 GMP, the larger metropolitan force, had nearly three times the scientific support expenditure of Lancashire (which spends slightly below the average of all forces). GMP also allocated a higher proportion of its expenditure to scientific support activities (Table 2.1). The differences between the two forces are not, however, so marked in terms of staffing; here Lancashire s scientific support establishment exceeded the national average, and the force had a higher proportion of its force staff employed in scientific support than GMP. Table 2.2 presents data on the number of crime scene visits made in the year preceding the initiatives. Overall, the number of crime scenes attended by SOCOs in GMP was over two and a half times the number attended by their counterparts in Lancashire, but this, however, represented a smaller proportion of the crimes recorded in that force (14% compared with 19%). Table 2.2: Crime scene visits by Scientific Support in GMP and Lancashire (a) Total crime scene visits Violent/ sexual offences Scenes attended per 1,000 recorded crimes: Burglary in a Vehicle crime All crime dwelling GMP 53,126 28 565 109 141 Lancashire 21,019 69 716 248 193 All forces, England and Wales 21,036 mean 8 to 801 range 440 to 922 range 28 to 647 range 80 to 401 range (a) 1999-2000 5

Tables 2.3 and 2.4 present key items of data about the two main forms of forensic evidence collected by scientific support staff fingerprints and conventional DNA (SGM plus) 6. For fingerprints, the data relate to all crime types. Table 2.3 illustrates that Lancashire appeared to be more efficient at obtaining fingerprint identifications, achieving more than twice as many identifications per crime recorded, and indeed a much higher proportion for each crime scene visited. But this was not translated into a correspondingly high proportion of detections. In Greater Manchester 63 per cent of identifications led to detections, whereas in Lancashire the equivalent figure was only 19 per cent. Table 2.3: Fingerprint evidence received, identifications and detections for all crime in GMP and Lancashire (a) Cases sent to Fingerpri nt Bureau Identifications IDs per 1,000 recorded crimes IDs per scene visited Detection s Detections per 1000 crimes GMP 15,952 3,994 11 7.5% 2,531 7 Lancashire 9,848 2,626 24 12.5% 500 5 All forces, England and Wales 6,050 mean 1,501 mean 7 to 24 range 7.0% 1,287 mean 2 to 26 range (a) 1999-2000 For DNA, data were only available for burglary in a dwelling, vehicle crime and violent/sexual offences (see Table 2.2). Across both the forces, DNA is only found at about one sixth of the total number of crime scenes at which fingerprints are found. DNA, however, generates a higher proportion of matches per scene attended than fingerprints and, as a result, nearly a fifth of the total identifications achieved by the two forces were obtained from DNA. Table 2.4 indicates that again, while Lancashire achieved a higher ratio of DNA matches when measured against every 1,000 crimes, GMP was more efficient at turning these into police detections (65% of matches result in detection) than Lancashire (where 39% lead to detection). Table 2.4: Violent and sexual offences, burglary in a dwelling and vehicle crime DNA evidence found, identifications and detections in GMP and Lancashire(a) Recovered from scene Matches IDs per 1,000 crimes Detections Detections per 1,000 crimes GMP 1,764 1,107 2.9 721 1.9 Lancashire 794 385 3.5 152 1.4 All forces, England and 749 mean 535 mean 1.3 to 18.1 range 200 mean 0.4 to 3.1 range Wales (a) 1999-2000 6 Second Generation Multiplex (SGM) is a DNA profiling system which looks at seven areas (six areas plus a sex indicator area) to give a DNA profile. The average discrimination potential for an SGM profile is one in fifty million. SGM plus has been in use since June 1999, for profiling DNA samples on the NDNAD. It looks at 11 areas (10 areas plus a sex indicator area) to give a DNA profile. The average discrimination potential for an SGM plus is one in a billion. 6

Forensic activity in the period before Pathfinder In order to be able to assess the impact of the initiative, the focus now turns to the twelvemonth period immediately prior to the start of Pathfinder, that is, the period June 1999 to May 2000. In the twelve month period preceding the initiatives, some 50,493 crime scenes in GMP were visited by scientific support staff, or 13 per cent of all recorded crime scenes. In Lancashire a total of 28,948 scenes were visited 7, about half the number attended in GMP, but this represented about twice the proportion of recorded crime scenes in that force 27 per cent. Fingerprints In the twelve months preceding the initiatives (1999/2000) fingerprints were recovered at: 28 per cent of the crime scenes visited (14,148) in GMP identifications came from 28.4 per cent (4,024) of the fingerprint marks recovered; and, 39.9 per cent of the crime scenes visited (11,539) in Lancashire identifications came from 22.1 per cent (2,549) of the fingerprints recovered. DNA (SGM plus) In the year preceding the initiatives, DNA was recovered at: 5.5 per cent (2,750) of the crime scenes visited in GMP matches were obtained from 42.1 per cent (1,157) of the DNA crime scene samples recovered; and, 4.6 per cent (1,326) of the crime scenes visited in Lancashire matches were obtained from 29.4 per cent (390) of the DNA crime scene samples recovered The pattern is similar to that found in all forces a much smaller number of crime scenes yield DNA than fingerprints, but the matching efficiency for DNA is higher. The ratio is very much higher for GMP than it is for Lancashire. Even so, for both forces the total number of DNA matches was relatively low compared to the number derived from fingerprints. Footwear While most forces lift any footwear marks left at scenes of crime or take impressions of footwear worn by apprehended offenders, they differ in how much use is made of the information gathered. Some forces merely store the information in the case file to be followed up at a later date if it would assist in an enquiry. Others are more proactive in using footwear marks to link scenes or to link a suspect s footwear to a scene (see Rix, 2004). Prior to Pathfinder, GMP and Lancashire differed in their approach to footwear information, and could be seen as indicative of the different attitudes prevailing in all forces. In Lancashire, the practice of obtaining footwear marks from crime scenes was well established. When visiting a scene, the SOCO will establish the point of entry and lift any marks that are identified as footwear marks. A strong advocate of this form of forensic evidence, the force had invested considerable effort in promoting footwear and already employed a force specialist who collated and analysed footwear information. GMP, in sharp contrast to Lancashire, took a rather sceptical attitude to footwear evidence, tending to view it as of limited intelligence value and not reliable. GMP did not employ a footwear specialist and had not developed systems for collating or utilising the information 7 For Lancashire, this figure includes cases where the SOCO did not visit the crime scene but examined material brought in from a crime scene. It thus more accurately reflects the number of crimes that involved some form of forensic examination. However, as a SOCO can both visit a crime scene and examine material brought in from the same crime scene, there can be an element of double counting. 7

gathered. Although CSEs would lift samples from scenes regularly, often little would be done with these lifts except in more serious crimes. In the year preceding the initiatives, footmarks were recovered at: 3,070 crime scenes in GMP, or 6.1 per cent of scenes visited; 4,355 crime scenes in Lancashire, or 15 per cent of scenes visited. Neither force could provide data on the number of identifications achieved through the use of footwear evidence. If they were to use footwear evidence in the prosecution process both forces would call on the services of FSS to do this. Toolmarks Prior to Pathfinder, the use of toolmark intelligence was limited since it was regarded by both forces as one of the least likely forms of forensic evidence to detect crime except where the offender is apprehended close to the scene with the tool in his possession. In such cases, toolmark casts were taken in order to provide corroborative evidence. However, these instances were relatively rare. Neither force could provide data on the number of recoveries or any identifications achieved through the use of toolmarks. Identifying serial offenders and linked crimes Before the Pathfinder Project, and concurrent with it, there were attempts made within both forces to link more effectively forensic (and other) intelligence. In Greater Manchester, this work was undertaken by a variety of means. It was part of the remit of the Operational Policing Units (OPUs) to analyse and link intelligence information, and crime analysts are employed in each of the subdivisions to scrutinise the computer systems for evidence of emerging crime trends, including serial offending and links between crimes and scenes. Possible links are identified and researched by the appointed individual (generally a civilian). During the course of their work, however, others may also identify possible links and provide this information to the analyst for scrutiny. This might include the evaluators responsible for allocating crimes, since all forensic matches and crime information will be notified to them for allocation; SOCOs who are likely to identify links via the scenes they visit or the forensic lifts that they make; or other police officers observing links through the course of investigations or in their responses to reported crime. In Lancashire, a similar role is performed by the Divisional Intelligence Units (DIUs). However, at the same time as Pathfinder, Lancashire was already piloting a project in one division. This employed the use of a computer package like FLINTS to produce intelligence packages. By the close of Pathfinder, the pilot was deemed to have been a successful innovation and the intelligence system employed, Sciman, is considered likely to be introduced across the force. In both forces, staff at headquarters also had a part to play in the co-ordination of forensic intelligence. Theoretically, communication between the forensic departments at headquarters and divisional levels should facilitate a greater number of identifications. However, with the exception of the footwear specialist in Lancashire, such communication was reported to be weak to the point of non-existent in both forces. 8

3. Increased forensic activity This chapter describes the two initiatives in more detail including information on costs. DNA Expansion Programme: scope and content The DNA Expansion Programme allocated funds to police forces on a pro rata basis relative to their force strength. Police forces had to first meet their previous expenditure on suspect CJ and crime scene sampling to qualify for additional funds. Costs The two forces received a total of 219,000 support for suspect and crime scene DNA services. Neither force could provide a detailed breakdown of these costs per division, so the final column of Table 3.1notionally allocates these costs based on the proportion of each force s recorded crime in the target divisions (33% for GMP and 55% for Lancashire). On this basis, the total estimated spend on SGM plus in the Pathfinder divisions was 85,756. Table 3.1: Expenditure on SGM plus, GMP and Lancashire (April 2000 March 2001) Actual spend by force ( s) Estimated spend CJ samples Crime scene Both for target divisions ( s) GMP 65,012 92,910 157,920 52,114 (@ 33% of force total) Lancashire 26,950 34,217 61,167 33,642 (@ 55% of force total) Pathfinder: scope and content There were four major scientific and technical advances/approaches that the FSS aimed to trial in the context of volume crimes and these were the four essential components to the Pathfinder project. They were: to develop the use of DNA LCN a super-sensitive technique for recovering DNA at crime scenes; 8 to develop the use made of footwear evidence; to develop the use made of toolmark evidence; to improve the ability to link crimes where forensic evidence is available to identify serial offenders and other linked crime scenes, through the use of the Forensic Led Intelligence System (FLINTS). The project provided a mechanism enabling the use of these techniques across seven police divisions in the two forces. Fingerprints and conventional DNA (SGM plus) are the principal sources of forensic matches for the police, but they were not part of the Pathfinder project in the sense that these were established mechanisms; no new systems and technologies were developed or tested as part of the FSS initiative. However, although not targeted specifically, both these forms of evidence were promoted in Pathfinder in two ways. First, when visiting scenes for LCN, all other forensic evidence was also considered; thus, because of Pathfinder, 8 The key attributes of LCN and in particular the ability to extract a DNA profile from very small blood stains, or skin cells, as opposed to more visible bodily fluids or hair (where the SGM plus technique can be applied) are outlined in Chapter 1, and below. 9

some scenes were searched for fingerprints and SGM plus which might not otherwise have been. Second, fingerprint and SGM plus evidence was included in FLINTS packages which sought to link different types of forensic evidence. LCN DNA Using LCN it is possible to gain DNA profiles from very degraded material, very small stains and items that may contain skin cells such as jewellery or may have simply been touched by an offender (FSS Update, 1999). LCN analysis has been available to police forces for some time, but the FSS had prescribed that forces should only seek this service in serious or otherwise high profile cases, where there was no other forensic evidence, albeit at a high unit cost. Pathfinder offered the opportunity for a more extensive trial of LCN, and to address some of the challenges that have accompanied this more advanced technique of collecting and processing DNA. While LCN offered new opportunities to collect DNA profiles, there are issues to be considered when applying the technique. Complications arise because of variable shedding (different people leave behind varying quantities of DNA when they touch objects) and secondary transfer (people can act as carriers of DNA-bearing material). In addition, the fact that the material (e.g. skin cell) is not visible increases the risk of obtaining a mixture that is a profile containing more than one person s DNA. Clearer and less ambiguous results are more likely to be obtained if examination for LCN is restricted to areas that are known to have been touched only by the offender. Thus, in cases of burglary, priority might be given to examining any personal object left behind at the scene by the offender, such as tools used to break in, cigarette lighters, and so on. Similarly, any object left behind at the scene of a vehicle crime could be potentially likely to reveal the offender s DNA. By the same token, to take a vehicle the offender will invariably need to hotwire it. This entails removing or displacing the steering column cowling and interfering with the ignition wiring of the car. As these are areas not normally touched by the owner of the vehicle they are potentially fruitful areas to obtain uncontaminated samples of the offender s DNA. Footwear As Lancashire already had a well developed system and procedures, Pathfinder s main contribution in Lancashire was to provide one additional person to work four days a week alongside the footwear specialist to help cope with the backlog of work. SOCOs in Lancashire (as in GMP) already employed a number of different techniques to lift footwear samples from scenes, namely acetate, gel, casting (for snow and soil) and photographs. In addition, any transportable item bearing a footwear mark could be taken from the crime scene for analysis under laboratory conditions. Under Pathfinder, the FSS provided extra gel for taking samples. In GMP a greater input was required. The FSS provide a computer package for storing and linking footwear information. Several commercial footwear computer systems are available. The FSS purchased one such commercial package, SICAR, together with appropriate hardware, for use in the Pathfinder divisions in GMP. An advantage with SICAR (in contrast to the bespoke system in Lancashire which was devised and built up around the footwear specialist) is that it does not require detailed knowledge to operate. The FSS also provided one person to operate SICAR and the scientist allocated to Lancashire four days a week spent one day a week assisting in GMP. As in Lancashire, extra gel was provided to the four GMP Pathfinder divisions. In addition a newly developed ESLA kit (Electro-Static Lifting Apparatus) was provided and made available in one Pathfinder division. These initiatives enabled CSEs to lift more marks from scenes. Samples taken from burglary and vehicle crime scenes and suspects in the Pathfinder divisions were submitted to the SICAR specialist for two main purposes: linking scenes according to footwear (i.e. scene to scene comparisons); linking suspect footwear to scenes. 10

SICAR was operational from the start of the Pathfinder project in June 2000 and continued to be used until 31 August 2001 an extension of three months beyond the main project timetable. Although SICAR was in place at the outset, it was not until a substantial amount of data had been input that the database could be interrogated in any meaningful way. The initial phase thus focused on gathering and inputting information. Toolmarks Although toolmarks were used extensively by either force prior to Pathfinder, both recognised that in many instances offenders discard tools used to gain entry at or near the scene, or use tools that are later found at a suspect s home. The aim of Pathfinder was to realise the theoretical potential for linking scenes where an offender uses the same tool, or a tool is retrieved that can generate fingerprints (or LCN DNA) leading to the apprehension of an offender linked to several scenes. Thus, as part of the Pathfinder project the FSS aimed to increase the casting and identification of toolmarks through the use of new techniques and through increased awareness. In order to store, retrieve, search and link toolmarks, the FSS Research Department also developed a computerised Toolmark Database System (TDS). Unlike footwear, where various database packages are currently available (see above), no such system existed for toolmarks. Prior to Pathfinder, no force had had access to TDS and the project was seen as an opportunity to experiment and test its potential. Identifying serial offenders and linked crimes To enhance the ability to link crimes where forensic evidence was available to both offenders and other crimes the FSS used FLINTS 1, a system developed by West Midlands police. FLINTS operated across all Pathfinder divisions in GMP and Lancashire and the FSS thought that its greatest value would be the linking of information across divisions or across forces. Existing systems tended to focus only on intelligence within divisions or forces. Due to the limitations of the existing computer systems, most forensic evidence was not held in a way that enabled scene-to-scene searches; the only searches that tend to allow the linking of scenes are via offenders names. Use of FLINTS began at the outset of the Pathfinder project and with the intention that it would build up intelligence details on who was offending, where, when and how. This began slowly as only one operator was responsible for populating an initially empty database with relevant forensic intelligence. Originally these data were collected on a monthly basis from the relevant departments in each force (Forensic Submissions, Fingerprint Units and SICAR), but later in the project it was collected and input on a weekly basis. Accessing the required information, the time and resources involved in populating the database, as well as the other commitments of the operator, meant that no intelligence packages were produced until the end of November 2000. As a result of SOCO training in LCN techniques, Forensic Examiners 9 (FEs) in Greater Manchester were freed to perform more intelligence work from December 2000. This included, amongst other things, the inputting and search of FLINTS, and thus allowed for an increase in intelligence output during the latter half of the pilot. Furthermore, the FLINTS operator developed the packages to make them more user-friendly and expanded the scope of the original FLINTS package. In May 2001, a Volume Crime Unit (VCU) was established in Greater Manchester, and the FLINTS operator worked closely with the Unit and the Force Intelligence Bureau (FIB) to increase links and cross-border detections. By June 2001, the VCU and FIB were serving as intermediaries by conducting further research to enhance the packages, whereas previously 9 FEs were FSS scientific staff who had been trained to swab for LCN although they could deal with other forms of forensic evidence. 11 The terms SOCO and CSE (Crime Scene Examiner) describe broadly similar roles in Lancashire and GMP respectively. 11

they had been sent directly to the Divisional Chief Inspectors to be filtered down to the OPUs/ Intelligence Units. Delivery: the role of Forensic Examiners At the start of Pathfinder, a Forensic Examiner was assigned to each of the seven target divisions. FEs were FSS scientific staff who had been trained to swab for LCN although they could deal with other forms of forensic evidence. On first arriving in the two forces, FEs accompanied the Divisional SOCOs 11 in Lancashire (CSEs in GMP) to burglary and vehicle crime scenes. This allowed both parties to understand the other s working practices. Thereafter, working practices evolved differently in each force. In Lancashire during October and November, SOCOs were trained by the FSS but thereafter FEs were tasked with attending auto-crime scenes alone and burglary scenes in conjunction with SOCOs (usually when there were no auto scenes to visit). The fact that FEs went alone to auto scenes, meant they often had to dust for fingerprints and footwear as well as swab for LCN. By October 2000, SOCOs had been trained by the FSS to swab for LCN and from that date undertook the task themselves at scenes they attended. However, FEs continued to attend vehicle crime scenes until the project ended in May 2001. In GMP, FEs only visited a burglary or vehicle crime scene in the company of a CSE. In some cases this would involve accompanying one CSE all day to every scene her or she visited, and in some cases it involved CSEs contacting FEs to meet them at scenes that they felt may prove profitable to swab for LCN. It was GMP policy that FEs were not allowed to dust for fingerprints or footprints, obtain SGM plus or take toolmark casts, despite the fact that they had been trained in these areas. However, in practice, FEs would assist at scenes in order to save time and this included taking elimination fingerprints, and assisting with footwear and toolmark casting. This pattern of working continued until the end of 2000, by which point CSEs had been trained in LCN swabbing. At the beginning of 2001, the FEs in GMP ceased to visit crime scenes and were assigned to other duties within the Pathfinder project. Despite the different roles of the FEs in the two forces, it should be noted that, in both forces, by the midway point of the project, many more individuals in GMP and Lancashire were able to collect LCN at burglary and vehicle crime scenes. By the start of 2001, all scientific staff visiting scenes in the Pathfinder divisions had the ability to swab for LCN. In addition to the increase in the number of scenes covered, as knowledge and experience grew, more effective strategies were adopted. Ignition boxes, radio wires and abandoned tools became the favoured items for swabbing for LCN, and FEs spent a significant amount of time swabbing items retrieved from scenes. Retrieving DNA from face marks on glass also proved successful. Overall the FEs working on the initiative attended 3,192 crime scenes. This represented 4.2 per cent of the burglary and vehicle crime offences (and 1.7% of all crime) recorded in the seven target divisions. There were, however, marked differences between the two forces. In GMP, where FEs visited 1,763 scenes but only in the company of CSEs, the percentage was lower at 3.4 per cent of all Pathfinder crimes. In Lancashire, a total of 1,976 scenes were visited, of which 28 per cent (576) were crime scenes visited by the FE alone (nearly all vehicle crime offences) and 72 per cent (1,429) were visited with a SOCO. Put together, FEs attended 5.3 per cent of all burglary and vehicle crime scenes. Duration The Pathfinder initiative started in the two forces at the beginning of June 2000 and continued until 31 May 2001, with one or two elements activities relating to footwear and FLINTS carrying on until 31 August 2001. However, these start and end dates reflect the time the resources were on the ground in the Pathfinder divisions. Preparatory work within the FSS began before June 2000 and evidence collected towards the end of the project was processed by the FSS after the Pathfinder project had formally ended. By the same token, 12

the research team followed up cases that resulted in identifications to mid-november 2001 (some five and a half months later) to obtain a comprehensive assessment of outcomes. Figure 3.1 presents the different strands of the Pathfinder project, and provides an assessment of their impact on the existing scenes of crime work in the two forces involved. Resources and costs involved in the Pathfinder project Overall there were ten field staff involved in the FSS team implementing Pathfinder, as well as four management and coordination posts. Following conventions set out by the Economics and Resource Analysis (ERA) Unit of the Home Office, the FSS implementation team provided a breakdown of both the grant costs provided to implement Pathfinder ( 850,000) but also sunk costs such as staff, equipment and development costs that had already been incurred before the project began. These additional costs totalled 307,079, bringing the full project costs to 1,157,079. Table 3.2 breaks down this total cost into the sub-categories specified by the ERA (Legg and Powell, 2000). Staff costs accounted for 42 per cent of the total budget 13 per cent to support the management posts and 29 per cent to employ the FEs. The main item was, however, running costs, accounting for 55 per cent of the total, of which the main item was the use of vehicles and travel by the team. Table 3.2: Breakdown of Pathfinder costs according to ERA categories Running costs consumables, etc 55% Staff costs: FEs salaries and expenses 29% Staff costs: management 13% Training costs 2% Research and data collection (FSS only) 1% Equipment 0% Publicity 0% 13

Figure 3.1: Elements of the two initiatives and their impact on scenes of crime activities in the host forces Forensic technique GMP Lancashire Fingerprints DNA: SGM plus LOW No significant changes, except Pathfinder increases resources available to attend crime scenes (through availability of FSS Forensic Examiners) so likely increase in marks obtained, particularly in Lancashire where FSS FEs visited crime scenes independently HIGH DNA Expansion Programme provides access to additional funds for processing CJ (suspect) and crime scene samples DNA: Low Copy Number Footwear Toolmarks Identifying serial offenders and linked crimes (via FLINTS) HIGH Pathfinder initiates first full trial of the use of LCN in respect of volume crime. Immediate deployment of trained FEs and subsequent training of SOCOs to swab for LCN, enabling force personnel to swab for samples midway through the project. Funding to process scene samples and complete casework from FSS. HIGH LOW Pathfinder increases collection of samples by FEs; extra gel Pathfinder increases collection of samples by FEs and available; use of Printscan kits to take impressions from extra gel available prisoners and installation of SICAR system to store and link samples HIGH LOW Pathfinder increases collection by FEs at scenes; provides Pathfinder increases collection by FEs at scenes and ISOMARK casting material and installation of TDS system to provides ISOMARK casting material store and link samples HIGH Single FLINT database established to collate and analyse forensic science intelligence for both forces. Additional staffing and more effective working practices in later stages of the project. 14

The overall Pathfinder expenditure was also broken down to show those costs directed at specific interventions. These were identified as the four main project strands plus another category for crime scene examination. Unfortunately a little over half of the total expenditure (57%) could not be allocated to work on these precise aspects of forensic activity (for example, staff time or running costs directed at general management of the project), but Table 3.4 presents a breakdown of these project costs (amounting to 1.16 million) showing both the costs directed at specific project interventions and more general activities. This shows work on LCN clearly consumed the highest proportion of costs (31% overall). Table 3.4: Breakdown of Pathfinder costs, by type of intervention carried out General 57% LCN 31% Crime scene examination 8% Linking crimes and offenders 2% Footwear 1% Toolmarks 1% For the purposes of the cost effectiveness analysis reported in Chapter 7 it is helpful if both general expenditure and that directed at crime scene examinations can be apportioned to the four main project interventions. One means of taking these costs into consideration is to allocate them pro rata to each of the specific intervention headings (Table 3.5). Table 3.5: Breakdown of total expenditure on Pathfinder project by key interventions Type of intervention Costs allocated to specific interventions Additional costs apportioned Total LCN 646,148 356,500 1,002,648 Footwear 27,018 14,907 41,925 Toolmarks 30,951 17,077 48,028 Linking crimes and offenders 41,553 22,926 64,479 Total 745,670 411,409 1,157,079 Under this method of apportioning general costs, the expenditure on LCN rises to just over 1million. 15

4. Forensic activity during the initiatives This chapter describes the implementation and impact of the initiatives. Interviews were conducted with those responsible for the management and operation of the interventions in GMP and Lancashire, as well as those likely to be affected by the anticipated increase in forensic identifications (scientific staff, scenes of crime staff, police personnel, the CPS and the Magistrates Courts). Changes in the number of crime scenes visited, and in the collection, processing and identifications achieved in respect of the forensic techniques adopted were analysed to provide evidence of the impact of the initiative. Changes in the level of crime and detections were also examined. Implementation of Pathfinder At the outset, a Steering Group was appointed to provide strategic direction and guidance to the project. The Home Office policy unit responsible for the Crime Reduction Programme provided the chair and secretarial support. In addition, the FSS, Association of Chief Police Officers (ACPO), Home Office Science and Technology Unit, Lord Chancellors Department (LCD), Criminal Justice Joint Planning Unit (CJJPU) and the Home Office Research Development and Statistics Directorate were represented on the Committee. To manage the scientific aspects of the project, the FSS appointed a Project Manager (who sat on the Steering Group) and a Project Management team. Management responsibility on behalf of the police fell to Scientific Support Managers (SSMs) in GMP and Lancashire, who were responsible for the operational implementation and delivery of the Pathfinder initiative in their respective forces. There is one SSM and one Head of Scenes of Crime located in the headquarters of each force. The SSM has a coordinating role in relation to all scientific services and, in both forces, the SSM was heavily involved with Pathfinder from its conception. This involved liaison with the FSS, Scenes of Crime Management and Senior Scenes of Crime Officers, other members of their Departments, and interested parties such as the Divisional Intelligence Units, or similar. Overall, their contribution to the implementation of Pathfinder was critical. There was an expectation that Pathfinder, and the use of LCN in particular, would have a positive effect in terms of increased identifications, and hence detections. This was perceived to be particularly important in cases where other forms of evidence might have limited value. However, senior staff in the two forces reserved judgement on the cost-effectiveness of increased use of forensic evidence especially LCN in detecting volume crime. The concerns expressed about the DNA Expansion Programme largely related to the need to reach the set targets for CJ samples. Prior to the Expansion Programme, both forces had targeted certain groups, such as young offenders, violent offenders or burglars. This approach did not result in collection of sufficient samples and as a consequence both forces widened the target group to include anyone charged, reported and/or subsequently cautioned for a recordable offence. However, at the commencement of the programme, not all divisions were complying with this order. SOCOs and FSS FEs in the Pathfinder divisions SOCOs (in Lancashire) and CSEs in GMP were the individuals most directly affected by the Pathfinder project. Working practices of SOCOs/CSEs in the two forces varied greatly. In general terms, however, a Scenes of Crime Team served each police division, and comprised one senior SOCO (or Supervisor in GMP) and between five and ten SOCOs located across the division. In GMP, an additional Administration Officer had been provided by the force to assist with the paperwork and miscellaneous tasks (such as photographic development) in order to relieve pressure on CSEs during Pathfinder. This had not been provided in Lancashire. 16

During Pathfinder one FE was seconded to each division. All had been working for the FSS in another capacity prior to starting on the Pathfinder project and they all possessed scientific qualifications, in a variety of disciplines. Training All SOCOs and Senior SOCOs were offered two days training in Pathfinder (and more particularly LCN) by the FSS, and this was reported to be useful. All FEs attended five weeks training which briefly comprised one week fingerprint training; four weeks within the FSS training in glass, footwear, vehicle examination, and the collection of evidence; and an assessment on vehicle examination. Police officers also received training in Pathfinder, since their actions as first on a scene were clearly integral to the success of the project. Theoretically, all police officers likely to attend crime scenes were made aware of the remit of Pathfinder and the need to treat scenes and tools in a particular way. It was intended that police officers would be able to identify scenes where there was a potential for LCN to be recovered, and would report this to incident rooms (or Comms ) staff. However, by the accounts of SOCOs and FEs in both forces, the training of police officers was variable. Consequently, problems arose due to items at scenes being mishandled rendering them unsuitable for swabbing. To remedy this situation, SOCOs and FEs in both forces undertook police training with individual reliefs and attempted to increase awareness through posters, memos, electronic bulletins, and assisted by placing masks and gloves in patrol cars. Liaison Generally there appeared to be a close liaison between SOCOs across divisions, and between FEs. There were, however, signs that after an initial rush, formal meetings between the police and FSS staff diminished, and only then happened in response to particular difficulties as they were encountered. FEs in each division had a weekly meeting with the management team from the FSS. These were used as a forum for exchanging ideas about best practice and as a point of support for FEs. Management structure FEs remained employees of the FSS though they worked directly from police premises, either within Scenes of Crime Teams or within GMP s Headquarters. On a day-to-day basis, their routine activities were directed by the supervising SOCO. None of the FEs felt that they had had much to do with the Scientific Support Units (SSUs) and had little contact with the management there. Working practices The fact that FEs were visiting scenes alone in Lancashire and in tandem in GMP (see Chapter 3) meant that working practices varied between the forces. In GMP, the FEs working day broadly consisted of approximately half a day visiting scenes with SOCOs, and half a day following up this work (e.g. booking the swabs into property, filling in paperwork and updating computer systems). Occasionally the practicalities of accompanying SOCOs would dictate that FEs would have to attend non-pathfinder crime scenes, but their role here was minimal other than providing practical assistance (such as the taking of elimination fingerprints). In Lancashire, FEs would spend an hour or so locating jobs that appeared useful for them to attend, and the remainder of the morning working on vehicles that they had identified. The afternoon would be spent in a similar fashion to GMP. In addition to this, all FEs attended a weekly meeting with FSS management. For each case in which an FE was involved, he or she completed a standard submission form, together with a tick box evidence recovery form. In GMP, LCN swabs were also booked into property at the police station and the forensic database would be updated to reflect that an LCN swab had been taken from a scene. In Lancashire, a job sheet was completed by the FE and filed, and this information was also input onto a computer system. 17

At the end of 2000, all scenes of crime staff had completed training in LCN swabbing. Although the scenes visited by staff were not reported to have altered, it could take an additional half an hour to complete forms for one submission. While SOCO staff found this a detractor, they found the LCN technique itself, and the kits for using it, straightforward and easy to use. Within Lancashire, the ability to use LCN affected SOCOs differently. Some reported that their attendance at vehicle crime scenes increased, whilst others said that it diminished and they attended more burglaries. The increase in forensic activity brought about by Pathfinder had an effect on police practices too. More cases involving forensic matches were being allocated to uniformed officers than would have been allocated to CID previously. There was some concern that uniformed officers did not have the forensic knowledge to handle these cases, and that the dispersal of this intelligence was hindering crimes being tied together and operations mounted. The increased reliance on forensics in detections also had implications for the care taken in preserving scenes by the First Attending Officer (FAO). Police officers also expressed concern that the increase in forensic activity was not being appropriately targeted, so that much of the information could not be realised in an evidential capacity (e.g. due to defences of legitimate access which could be difficult to disprove). Furthermore, they argued that suspects appeared to be becoming more familiar with the limitations of such evidence, and the chances of the mere presence of forensics inducing a confession were diminishing. It was often pointed out that offender knowledge of forensic techniques tends to keep pace with developments: there was concern about offenders burning out cars to destroy evidence, and reports that they were starting to take cowlings away with them. The context: crime trends nationally and in the target forces Crime patterns are determined by a range of factors, and the level of crime is one of the main demand-side influences, or drivers, of scientific support departments. In simple terms, an improvement in the proportion of scenes of crime visited by SOCOs is far more likely to be achieved by a marginal fall in crime incidents (the demand) than by even quite a significant injection of funds into scientific support departments (the supply). This makes it very important to preface any account of the impact of the DNA Expansion and Pathfinder initiatives by first describing overall crime patterns before and during the interventions. Looking to the specific periods under review for this evaluation the year preceding the initiatives (1 May 1999 to 31 April 2000) and the year in which they took place (1 May 2000 to 31 April 2001), there were quite marked differences in the crime trends in the two forces. Overall recorded crime fell by 3.5 per cent over this period in GMP and rose by 14.9 per cent in Lancashire. At least part of the explanation for these different trends is likely to be the early adoption by Lancashire of National Crime Recording Standard (NCRS). Lancashire introduced NCRS in August 2000 (i.e. four months into the evaluation period). In an assessment of the impact of NCRS on Lancashire using a national methodology, it was estimated that the early adoption of NCRS in Lancashire increased recorded crime in the twelve months to July 2001 by approximately 20 per cent (Simmons, Legg and Hosking, 2003). In respect of those crimes targeted under the Pathfinder initiative burglaries in dwellings and in other than a dwelling, and thefts of and from motor vehicles (generally labelled Pathfinder crimes for convenience) the differential was slightly less dramatic, but still substantial. Pathfinder crime fell by 7.9 per cent in GMP over this period and rose by 8.5 per cent in Lancashire. Figure 4.1 presents the differences in these four Pathfinder crimes, and in the combined burglary and vehicle crime totals. In respect of the four individual offence categories, all fell in GMP while all except one in Lancashire increased (theft of a vehicle down 3%). In terms of the combined categories: all burglary fell in GMP by 7.5 per cent, but increased in Lancashire by 5.8 per cent; and all vehicle crime fell in GMP by 8.3 per cent, but increased in Lancashire by 11.2 per cent. 18

Figure 4.1: Changes in the four target crime categories during the initiatives, across both forces Overall changes in Pathfinder crime in GMP and Lancashire during the initiatives All vehicle TFMV TOMV All burg Lancs. GMP BOTD Burg dwell -15.00-10.00-5.00 0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 Percentage change There was also a strong trend in relation to clear ups in both forces: the number of detections of Pathfinder crimes fell by 16.6 per cent in GMP over this period and by 19.8 per cent in Lancashire. Figure 4.1 presents the differences in these four Pathfinder crimes, and in the combined burglary and vehicle crime totals. In respect of the four individual offence categories, detections fell in both GMP and in Lancashire. In terms of the combined categories: all burglary detections fell in GMP by 15.4 per cent, and by 20.7 per cent in Lancashire. all vehicle crime detections fell in GMP by 17.8 per cent, and by 18.6 per cent in Lancashire. These baseline trends have a strong bearing on the other statistics reported later in this chapter. The impact of crime and clear ups in the Pathfinder divisions alone is summarised at the end of this chapter. Forensic activities and outcomes during the initiatives The account below presents data on scene visits and the collection and use of different forms of forensic material, comparing activities during the initiatives with the preceding year. It also presents the general views of practitioners (CSEs, the police and CPS) derived from the interviews carried out in the process review (Chapter 1). Visits to crime scenes The Pathfinder initiative was not intended to increase the proportion of crime scenes visited by scientific support professionals and this was the case in GMP, where the number of crime scenes visited was virtually the same in the two years under review. However, the pattern was different in Lancashire, where the number of Pathfinder crime scenes examined rose by 21 per cent. 12 This increase was not confined to the Pathfinder divisions (up 22%) but to non- Pathfinder divisions also (up 20%). 12 The higher rate in the Pathfinder divisions was attributable, in part, to the 882 vehicle crime scenes visited by Forensic Examiners on their own in Lancashire, but even if these scene visits were excluded, scene visits in the Lancashire Pathfinder divisions overall would have increased. 19

Fingerprints Fingerprints were not formally part of the Pathfinder project: no new systems or technologies were developed or tested. Despite this, the number of fingerprints recovered from crime scenes fell by 6.4 per cent in both forces during the evaluation period. GMP experienced larger falls than Lancashire, where recovery rates declined marginally. The fall in the number of fingerprints recovered was, however, more marked in the non-pathfinder divisions, where recoveries fell by 7.5 per cent. In the Pathfinder divisions, there was only a decline of 4.3 per cent (Table 4.1). Overall, the decline in the recovery of fingerprints was reflected in a less marked reduction in the number of fingerprint identifications. Table 4.1: Fingerprint identifications from Pathfinder crimes in the year preceding the projects, and during the projects Both forces (combined) Before (June 1999 to May 2000) During (June 2000 to May 2001) Difference in identifications % difference All force 4,755 4,692-63 -1.3% Pathfinder divisions 1737 1,777 40 2.3% Non-Pathfinder divisions 3,018 2,915-103 -3.4% Difference 99 5.7% The Pathfinder divisions, however, bucked the trend on this front and achieved a two per cent increase in the number of identifications compared with a decrease of three per cent in non-pathfinder divisions a difference of six per cent. This difference is the equivalent of an additional 99 extra fingerprint identifications accrued in the evaluation period (i.e. an additional six per cent on the 1,737 identifications reported in the Pathfinder divisions prior to the project). The differences between the Pathfinder and non-pathfinder divisions were not significant (chi-square 1.8; df 1; n.s) but it is also clear that the majority of the additional identifications were attributable to the increased number of vehicle crimes attended by FEs in Lancashire: they achieved 71 fingerprint identifications. The additional fingerprint identifications are therefore cautiously treated as a spin off benefit of Pathfinder in later chapters of this report. The views of practitioners In the eyes of all SOCOs and CSEs, fingerprints remain the most important forensic evidence to gather, and practices under Pathfinder did not alter this perspective. Prosecutors confirmed that the status of fingerprints as a reliable and commonly used form of evidence was unlikely to change. Fingerprints are rarely questioned, aside from issues of legitimate access. DNA (SGM plus) Across the two forces, the number of SGM samples recovered from all crime scenes increased by more than a third during the course of the initiatives, rising by 38 per cent. The increase was particularly marked in Lancashire: SGM plus recoveries from crime scenes increased by 50 per cent, while the increase in GMP was 32 per cent. This increase in SGM plus samples from crime scenes was accompanied by increases in the number of DNA samples taken from those charged, reported and/or cautioned. Both forces changed their sampling policies within the first half of the project period, to require samples from all those eligible (i.e. all those charged). GMP was unable to provide any data on the extent of this change, but in Lancashire CJ sampling across the whole force more than trebled. This increase was, however, less marked for the target Pathfinder crimes, where across the force the figure increased by 73 per cent. Interestingly, the boost in samples from those charged, reported and/or cautioned for Pathfinder crimes was significantly lower in the Pathfinder divisions (up 61%) than in the non-pathfinder divisions (up 91%: chi-square 4.8; df 1; p<.05). 20

This substantial increase in the CJ sampling and recovery of DNA SGM plus from crime scenes paid dividends in terms of a marked increase in matches from the NDNAD. Across both forces combined, there was an increase of 60 per cent for all crime database matches (SGM plus) during the evaluation period. However, the pattern in SGM plus recoveries between Pathfinder and non-pathfinder divisions was not reflected in the distribution of matches, which were spread evenly. The increase of 310 matches in Pathfinder divisions (up by 57%) was marginally below that experienced in non-pathfinder divisions (up by 59%). In Lancashire, this may have partly reflected the less substantial increase in CJ sampling from those charged, reported and/or cautioned for the Pathfinder crimes in the implementation divisions. These increases in SGM plus matches in the Pathfinder divisions represent primarily the impact of the DNA Expansion Programme. The views of practitioners Practitioners felt that SGM plus evidence is extremely useful, as it generally induces a guilty plea. Reservations relate to issues of cost and time in testing samples, especially in view of the time constraints on court adjournments. There can also be issues of legitimate access, but generally this evidence is both useful and reliable and is usually accepted by judges. In connection with this, the DNA Expansion Programme was also regarded as a positive development and was felt to be likely to result in an increase in cases resulting in a guilty plea. Low Copy Number (LCN), super-sensitive DNA Material yielding LCN DNA will often not be visible to the naked eye and swabbing may not produce any clearly attributable evidence. Swabbing is only equivalent to carrying out a search. So while the proportion of crime scene examinations that yield SGM plus DNA is relatively straightforward 13, the proportion of samples that yield DNA through the application of the LCN technique may represent the best estimate of the recovery rate. Table 4.2 sets out the number of scenes visited at which LCN was searched for (i.e. a swab was taken). Overall there were 3,251 swabs taken from 2,671 crime scenes an average of 1.2 swabs per scene. Table 4.2: Number of crime scenes where LCN swabs were taken during the Pathfinder project Force Greater Manchester 1 st phase June to December (by FEs only) 2 nd phase January to June (by CSEs) Number of crime scenes where LCN swabs taken As % of all vehicle crime and burglary scenes visited 718 41.3 658 10.9 Total 137 17.7 Lancashire 1 st phase June to December (by FEs only) 578 71.8 2 nd phase January to June 717 12.2 (by SOCOs and FEs) Total 1,295 20.9 Combined 1 st phase June to December (by FEs only) 1,296 50.9 2 nd phase January to June 1375 11.6 (by CSEs, SOCOs and FEs) Total 2671 18.4 13 In the context of SGM plus, the term yield is used to represent the number of samples taken from crime scenes. There is, however, some attrition between recovery and the number loaded on the National NDNAD: some samples are not submitted (generally for operational reasons) but also some samples submitted are not loaded (a number because of sample failure). 21

In the first phase of the project a high proportion of scenes attended by FEs were swabbed for LCN (41% in GMP and 72% in Lancashire). This is not surprising and predictably reflects the fact that FEs were engaged to swab for LCN and were taken to crime scenes for that purpose. In the second phase, SOCOs and CSEs had the ability to swab for LCN and would only do so if they felt the scene offered potential for obtaining DNA in this way. Furthermore they attended a scene to look for every kind of forensic evidence. The search rate of about 12 per cent recorded in the second phase of the project therefore provides a more realistic estimate of LCN swabbing rates under normal operating circumstances. The quality of any DNA gathered can vary widely. The FSS distinguishes between: full profiles: a strong sample which can be loaded and a good match will/could be found, producing an average one in a billion match; partial profiles: a sample that may be loaded or speculatively searched, but which could match several suspect samples held on the NDNAD; indication DNA (or a mixture in GMP), which usually means that more than one DNA profile (person) is contained within the sample; insufficient DNA, which means that the sample is not good enough to produce any kind of worthwhile profile. Table 4.3 presents details of the profiles recovered during the Pathfinder project. Table 4.3: Profiles derived from LCN samples Lancashire GMP Total % Full profile 45 53 98 3 Partial profile 186 207 393 12 Total profiles 231 260 491 15 No result 1,277 1,483 2,760 85 Total 1,508 1,743 3,251 100.0 The combined figure for full and partial profiles (15%) corresponds to the standard required for any SGM plus profile to be logged on the National NDNAD. Calculated on a case (or scene) basis, 18 per cent of the scenes that which were swabbed led to LCN full and partial profiles being obtained (491 LCN profiles were obtained from the 2,671 scenes). Put another way, two per cent of all scenes attended yielded LCN DNA sufficient for a profile to be loaded or searched on the National NDNAD. Nearly three quarters of LCN swabs taken were derived from vehicle crime offences (73%), and around one quarter from burglary offences (23%). Table 4.4 shows what items were swabbed for LCN, and which yielded profiles (based on the 3,251 samples, not at the 2,671 scenes from which they were obtained). Those items yielding the highest proportion of useable profiles are placed at the top of the table 14, but the number of profiles obtained also needs to be considered. Thus, while profiles were obtained from nearly two-thirds of all bottles swabbed (64%), only 14 bottles were obtained from crime scenes. In contrast, the highest number of profiles was obtained from ignition boxes (108 overall - obviously at vehicle crime offences) and screwdrivers (92 overall, which were found about equally at burglary and vehicle crime offences). 14 The profile rate for vehicle ignition cowlings is relatively low in Table 4.6 but this can partly be explained by the fact that the sampling area was minimised to avoid compromising any potential for fingerprint recovery. 22

Table 4.4: Items swabbed for LCN samples at different crime scenes and profile rate NUMBER OF NUMBER OF PROFILES PROFILE Type of item swabbed SWABS FULL PARTIAL ALL RATE Bottle 14 2 7 9 64.3% Key 15 1 3 4 26.7% Mobile phone 12 3 3 25.0% Batteries 13 1 2 3 23.1% Screwdriver 400 15 77 92 23.0% Other clothing 14 1 2 3 21.4% Ignition wiring 154 8 21 29 18.8% cigarette lighter 75 2 12 14 18.7% Glove 33 1 5 6 18.2% Visible marks 108 2 16 18 16.7% Ignition box 779 22 86 108 13.9% Radio wiring 257 6 28 34 13.2% Radio plugs 366 8 39 47 12.8% Shoe 8 1 1 12.5% Other tool 438 11 42 53 12.1% Wiring 48 1 4 5 10.4% Torch 30 3 3 10.0% Cowling 225 7 12 19 8.4% Radio 2 0 0.0% Other 260 10 30 40 15.4% TOTAL 3,251 98 392 491 15.1% The outcomes of LCN samples loaded on to the NDNAD are shown in Table 4.5 Table 4.5: Outcome of speculative searches or loads of LCN samples from the Pathfinder project Lancs GMP Total Column % Number of searches resulting in CJ match 141 167 308 63 Number of searches resulting in scene-to-scene 6 14 20 4 matches Number of searches resulting in LCN scene-to-scene 1 1 2 * matches Number of searches resulting in no match 82 76 158 32 Number of searches in progress 1 2 3 * Total 231 260 491 100 * = less than 0.5 per cent Overall therefore: 62.7 per cent of the LCN speculative searches and profiles loaded led to matches with CJ samples (i.e. 308 of 491) and a further 4.1 per cent (20 out of 491) to scene to scene links; 11.5 per cent of scenes from which LCN swabs were taken led to matches with CJ samples (i.e. 308 of 2,671). The views of practitioners Scientists, police officers and prosecutors interviewed felt that LCN could provide valuable evidence where there was no other evidence available. However, concerns were expressed regarding issues of cross-contamination, especially at burglaries where it was more likely that DNA found at the scene might belong to the aggrieved party. Prosecutors emphasised these limitations in using LCN as evidence in court. 23

Footwear During the evaluation period, there was a quite marked increase in the number of footwear impressions obtained from crime scenes: across both forces the number for all crime increased from 7,425 to 8,766, a rise of some 18.1 per cent. The increase was largely mirrored in both the Pathfinder divisions (up 18.5%) and the non-pathfinder divisions (up 18.3%), which does not suggest that the project itself led to more footwear marks being lifted from crime scenes in Pathfinder divisions. There was, however, a major difference between GMP, where by the force s own admission footwear marks had previously been collected only sparingly, and Lancashire. In the Lancashire Pathfinder divisions, the number of marks recovered increased by only 5.8 per cent (and indeed, as crime was rising, there was an actual decrease in the proportion of recorded crimes from which marks were recovered), whereas in GMP they rose by 51.7 per cent. This suggests that the FSS support for this activity did have an impact on GMP, which had previously made very little use of footwear, and that one of the consequences of the FSS work in the target divisions may have been to effect a wider change in GMP practice, in relation to footwear mark recovery. Only those impressions extracted in GMP Pathfinder divisions were entered on the SICAR system maintained by the FSS. Considering the footwear marks entered into SICAR, the vast majority came from burglary scenes as opposed to vehicle crime scenes: in total, 89 per cent of footwear marks were recovered from burglary scenes and only six per cent from vehicle crime scenes. Once lifted, a footwear mark can be compared to other crime scenes to establish any links with other scenes or known offenders or suspects. If the search is fruitful it can lead either to: a link between a suspect and a scene, or one scene to another the link is established by the pattern type of the footwear, and also the wear or damage on a footwear mark; or a match, which can only be made when the footwear is actually produced, and the marks/damage left at the scene and on the lift is identical to the wear/damage marks on the footwear. When an arrest is made the officer will seize the suspect s footwear and take the shoes to a specialist for analysis, so in most cases the link is a necessary precursor to a match. Neither force routinely records information on links or matches. Lancashire could only provide data for the period of the projects, hence it was not possible to directly assess the impact of Pathfinder. Nevertheless, the information provided by Lancashire does at least provide some indication of the relative importance of footwear evidence. Across the force, nine per cent of footwear marks collected from scenes could link a suspect to a scene (this represents two per cent of Pathfinder crime scenes visited). The number of links in Pathfinder divisions was higher: ten per cent, compared with seven per cent in non-pathfinder divisions. In the case of GMP, information was available from SICAR. During the course of the projects SICAR identified: 604 scene-to-scene links, or intelligence links ; 143 suspect-to-scene links. Thus, in total, 747 links were identified, covering 51 per cent of the footwear marks entered on SICAR. However, over 8 in 10 of these (81%) were linking footwear marks between crime scenes, not matching suspects to crime scenes. The most reliable indicator of a match between a suspect and a crime scene (i.e. where the footwear is produced and the mark(s) on this match those at the scene) is the number of occasions where this evidence is prepared for use in a trial. If either force wants to use footwear information as evidence in court it sends the information and samples obtained to the FSS for detailed analysis or comparison. There was a 22 per cent increase in comparisons over both forces during the evaluation period. The increase in non-pathfinder divisions was, however, greater than that in the Pathfinder divisions and so there was a net reduction of three comparisons (a shortfall of 3% on the 90 footwear comparisons reported in the Pathfinder divisions prior to the project). Once again, however, the overall picture masks 24

quite substantial differences between GMP (where the number of marks recovered increased by over a half) and Lancashire. In the GMP Pathfinder divisions, the number of comparisons rose from 19 to 35, a rise of 84 per cent, whereas in Lancashire they increased from 71 to 73, a rise of only two per cent. The views of practitioners Police officers felt that footwear could be useful as corroborative evidence, although it was not sufficient evidence alone. Both footwear and toolmarks were regarded as useful only when obtained soon after the event; it was necessary to gain prints and casts of the actual footwear/tool as soon after the offence as possible in order to avoid any further wear. Officers also regard them as particularly useful where the offender was detained in the vicinity of the offence and corroboration was required to place them at the scene. Issues of legitimate access also apply to footwear, and it was often hard to establish that the suspect was the only one who had access to a particular pair of shoes. The increase in the amount of footwear intelligence available was regarded as of limited value without an actual match between offender and scene. Prosecutors concurred with this view, voicing some scepticism regarding the reliability of footwear evidence. This was due both to the ubiquitous nature of many brands and a feeling that techniques were not sufficiently advanced for this information to be regarded as adequate evidence in court. The development of SICAR in GMP was reported to have changed the perception of footwear from purely corroborative evidence where suspects were apprehended near to scenes, to a possible intelligence tool linking scenes and suspects. SOCOs also reported that they had become more aware of different forensic techniques under Pathfinder, particularly footwear. This had led to them lifting a wider variety of samples at scenes. Toolmarks Neither force was able to provide data about recovery of toolmark impressions from scenes of crime prior to the two initiatives. This continued to be the case, and it was not possible to measure quantitatively the impact of Pathfinder by comparing numbers recovered before and after June 2000 or by contrasting Pathfinder and non-pathfinder divisions. Nevertheless, it is clear that in the four Pathfinder divisions in GMP, at least, greater attention was given to gathering toolmark impressions left at scenes. All marks gathered during the project from the Pathfinder divisions in GMP were entered on TDS. Two hundred and sixty-six toolmarks were recovered from crime scenes; in the main they came from burglary crime scenes (87%), with relatively few from vehicle crime scenes. Recovery of toolmarks is relatively uncommon. The 266 toolmarks recovered in the four divisions during the 15-month period equates to about four or five toolmarks per division per month. Toolmarks were recovered from only 1.6 per cent of Pathfinder crimes visited, or 0.4 per cent of all Pathfinder crimes. It also appears that little use was made of the information once installed in TDS. Different toolmarks were not compared and as a result no scene-to-scene or offender-to-scene links were identified through this mechanism. In contrast to footwear, toolmarks did not appear to be found at a sufficiently large number of crime scenes to offer the potential of making links. Furthermore, offenders do not, in the main, have the tool with them when arrested sometime after the crime. Where tools or toolmarks were obtained and could be linked to an offender, the items are sent to the FSS for detailed comparisons that can provide the basis of evidence in court. While overall numbers are small, there was a significant increase in toolmark comparisons across both forces in the evaluation period. The increase in non-pathfinder divisions was, however, found to be greater than that in the Pathfinder divisions. The views of practitioners The comments made by police and scientific support staff about toolmark evidence were very similar to those made about footwear (sometimes respondents did not always differentiate between the two forms of forensic evidence). All felt toolmark evidence was of very little value 25

generally, although it might provide useful corroborative evidence in certain cases. After some initial teething troubles, TDS was found to be easy to operate. Thus Pathfinder was useful in confirming the viability of the TDS software but raised questions about the utility of toolmark information in linking crime scenes or in identifying offenders. Identifying serial offenders and linked crimes: FLINTS Given the time taken to set up contacts and systems for the collection of data the first six months led to the production of only three intelligence packages (linking offenders to scenes through a range of forensic links). More staff were allocated to help by mid-september 2001, and a further 78 packages were produced. Fifteen of these cases related exclusively to Lancashire crimes or suspects, 56 were from GMP, and the remainder (7) involved crossforce cases/suspects. A number of packages covered more than one division within a force. The greater number of FLINTS packages produced by GMP was largely attributable to the use of SICAR and the involvement of the GMP FEs with intelligence once they had been freed up from LCN swabbing when CSEs had been trained. The original packages produced generally concerned the linking of offenders to scenes through forensic intelligence. However, there was a move towards the production of intelligence information for use by forensic departments (largely the fingerprint bureaux, FPBs), forwarding potential names of suspects to check against outstanding prints from scenes. The packages were classified into six categories: 1. Intelligence Information: there were 31 of these packages. 2. Footwear: packages largely involved scene link information based on footwear brand and did not always include suspect names. There were 12 footwear packages. 3. Cross-border: packages tended to concern information regarding offenders suspected of offending in both forces, or of having associates that crossed borders. There were 11 cross-border packages. 4. LCN outstanding prints: packages concerning suspects identified by LCN were forwarded to FPB for the elimination or identification of outstanding prints. This information was also forwarded to the police divisions to highlight the fact that there could be other offenders to be identified. This accounted for nine FLINTS packages, and three of these led to fingerprint idents. 5. Cross-division: there were six cross-divisional packages. 6. Outstanding LCN possible associates: these were packages where profiles were identified at scenes and unidentified profiles existed, and /or suggestions for comparison with associates of identified suspect(s) were made. There were two such packages. A number of the packages fell into more than one of the above categories. Assessment of FLINTS packages The evaluation of FLINTS was based on the following sources of information: FSS feedback questionnaires; information gathered from Greater Manchester Police information systems (GMPIX) as to the status of cases and the action taken / pending; interviews with police personnel in Operational Policing Units and other departments; interviews with FSS scientist; interviews with FPB. The reaction to FLINTS in police divisions was somewhat variable. A number of the packages in the earlier stages of Pathfinder were reported to have been of no practical use since the crimes contained within them had been detected before the packages were 26

received. In some cases, charges had been laid three months before the packages were received. However, staff commented that, had these packages been received before the crimes had been detected, they would have been very useful in the investigation. A number of other packages did not directly lead to charges but provided previously unknown link information, which had been forwarded to investigating officers. In one case, footwear intelligence was made available to all divisional staff via the electronic briefing system in order to alert them to the need to identify certain brands. In another case where prints and footwear were linked, attempts to acquire a suspect s footwear were made on arrest. Thus, some use was made of the intelligence provided by the FLINTS packages, even if it was not successful in securing an arrest or charge. There were a few notable successes as a direct result of FLINTS intelligence. One package led to the detection of a further three burglaries where a suspect had been arrested concerning only one offence. Most notably, however, one package proved to be integral in the clear up of over 40 domestic burglaries in GMP and a smaller number in Lancashire. In this case, the police had already linked a number of offences through the offender s modus operandi (MO), and had been able to assemble some CCTV footage. FLINTS revealed that there were a number of other links between these scenes including impressions of an uncommon brand of footwear called US Brass, potentially linking the same offender to a large number of scenes (see figure 4.2). With other evidence, such as an LCN profile from a knife abandoned at a scene and the use of a particular brand of goalkeeping gloves, it was possible for FLINTS to produce a package that linked the same offender to 12 scenes. The LCN link from the knife provided the first evidence of the name of the suspect. Moreover, the police reported that the FLINTS package provided enough intelligence for at least two crimes to be linked to the suspect. However, it was necessary for the suspect to be apprehended with the footwear to get a lead on the other offences. The police arrested the suspect in the vicinity of his last known address, where he was seen with a number of stolen items. He was apprehended but was not wearing the US Brass footwear. However, on searching the address, the footwear was found and recovered. The police reported that they were able to use the FLINTS intelligence as a lever during interview and were able to ensure a number of offences were taken into consideration. One officer maintained that, without the FLINTS package, the offender may not have confessed to as many offences but, by the same token, they were fortunate to arrest him and search the premises before he had disposed of the footwear, (he was already wearing a different brand). 27

Figure 4.2 28

With every FLINTS package sent out, FSS staff enclosed questionnaires seeking customers views as to the usefulness of the information. About 60 per cent said that they found the package to be of use. Responses that regarded the system as of no use at all were heavily weighted to the fingerprint unit. There was a difference of opinion here as to the usefulness of information that led to the elimination of offenders. Some regarded this as useful, but many more found it to be of no use at all. As with speculative searches against crimes with no other lines of enquiry, searches against suspects names tended to produce negative results (i.e. there was no match made). Typically this was fresh information to the FPB so, in this respect, some staff regarded this as useful. Others regarded this as of no use at all, and this was confirmed by the comments made in interview. FPB staff did not know on what basis the names had been suggested, and suspected that this was a common offence modus operandi (MO). Whilst MO was a contributing factor, discussions with the FSS scientist suggest that they were based on other information, such as the presence of other forensics. Linking through MO was regarded as tenuous in volume crime, since methods tend to be very similar, and the amount of time involved in comparing a whole list of names against a number of crime scenes was regarded as disproportionate to the results achieved. However, at least one match in GMP and one in Lancashire were made through intelligence-information packages. All staff reported that they found the packages easy to understand, although there appeared to be less understanding amongst divisional staff as to the potential of the packages. Although some cross-border consultation occurred, there were some cases where no contact was made between the forces and the potential for tying cases together may have been missed. The overall view of the FLINTS pilot, according to most police personnel, was that the amount of time and resources involved in running it was not matched by useful output. For one thing, many of the connections made had already been detected by staff in Scenes of Crime Teams (such as the US Brass case), or by staff dealing with forensic intelligence in Operational Policing Units. Undoubtedly, there was felt to be a great deal of potential for FLINTS, but the time taken and the nature of delays in circulating forensic information frustrated the project from fulfilling its true potential. The impact on detections and recorded crime Commentary earlier in this chapter indicated that, comparing the twelve months before the initiative (1 May 1999 to 31 April 2000) with the period of the initiative itself (1 May 2000 to 31 April 2001), GMP as a force experienced a small decrease in all recorded crime (by 4%), but that crime rose by 15 per cent in Lancashire. Both experienced major falls in crimes cleared up, or detections these fell 16.6 per cent in GMP and 20 per cent in Lancashire. There were, however, some differences in relation to the crime targeted in Pathfinder, burglary and vehicle crime, and between the target and control divisions. In examining the impact on detections and crime trends, it also has to be borne in mind that the two projects were by no means the only crime investigation/reduction programmes underway in GMP and Lancashire. Even under the Crime Reduction Programme, there were a total of 19 projects funded in the two forces during the implementation period for these two initiatives, attracting funding of some 3.5 million. These were primarily being carried out in GMP, and nearly two-thirds of this amount covered projects within the Reducing Burglary Initiative (with the remaining one-third under the Targeted Policing Initiative). Given the scale and complexity of these other activities, it was not possible to disentangle any impact they may have had from the impact of the two forensic initiatives. Detections The number of detections of Pathfinder crimes targeted in the project areas fell from 7,088 to 5,887 a drop of some 16.9 per cent. This was, however, a smaller reduction than the non- Pathfinder divisions where the fall was 18 per cent (the all-force figure was 17.6%). Although the estimated 390 additional forensic identifications attributed to the Pathfinder project which constituted 13 per cent of the 3,052 total identifications achieved in the implementation period will have contributed to smaller fall in the Pathfinder detection rates, the difference 29

between the change in detections in Pathfinder and non-pathfinder divisions was not found to be statistically significant (chi-squared = 0.31; df 1; NS). Recorded crime The overall trend in crime in the two host forces during the Pathfinder initiative was very different: crime rose by 15 per cent in Lancashire, while GMP as a force experienced a small decrease in all recorded crime (by 4%). The changes in the pattern of crime in the Pathfinder divisions largely reflected these wider force trends: in the Pathfinder divisions in Lancashire crime actually rose by seven per cent, which contrasts to a decrease of the same magnitude in the GMP Pathfinder divisions (down 7%). But it could be argued that, despite the increase in crime in the Lancashire divisions, they bucked the trend in their force in a way that the GMP Pathfinder divisions did not. The seven per cent increase in Pathfinder crimes in the Lancashire Pathfinder divisions was lower than that experienced in the non-pathfinder Lancashire divisions (up 11%) by 3.5 percentage points,(statistically significant, chi-square 5.5; df 1; p< 0.5). The seven per cent decrease in the Pathfinder crimes in the GMP Pathfinder divisions was less impressive than that experienced in the non-pathfinder GMP divisions (down 8%) which was one percentage point lower (the differences were not statistically significant, chi-square 2.1; df 1; n.s). In summary, a complex pattern emerged. The broad trends in detections and recorded crime across the two host forces were obviously major influences on the number of detections and crime experienced in the Pathfinder divisions. Over the course of the evaluation period both forces experienced major falls in crimes cleared up these fell 17 per cent in GMP and 20 per cent in Lancashire. Numbers of detections for burglary and vehicle crime in the Pathfinder divisions fell by 17 per cent, and by about the same level (18%) in the control divisions. In GMP, despite a fall in the number of Pathfinder crimes recorded, there was no suggestion that the Pathfinder divisions showed any improvement on the control divisions in that force. Ironically, the crime trends in the Lancashire Pathfinder divisions where the Pathfinder crimes rose by seven per cent represented an improvement on that in the neighbouring non-pathfinder divisions in that force. The absence of any consistent evidence of any crime reduction effect is not surprising even if each of the 390 additional identifications attributed to Pathfinder and 310 from DNA Expansion each related to separate crimes, this would only have affected 0.9 per cent of all the Pathfinder crimes in the Pathfinder divisions during the project period. 30

5. Assessing the value of forensic identifications This chapter looks at the use made of forensic identifications by police investigators, the prosecution and the courts. As well as providing an assessment of the value of the identification at each stage, it focuses on attrition the shortfall between the number of forensic identifications and eventual convictions. The term identification frequently abbreviated to ident is typically used with reference to the link between the fingerprint of a known person and a mark found at a crime scene. The term match is typically used for the same link using DNA. As the following text discusses the use of all forensic types the terms ident and match will be used interchangeably. The police assessment and outcome exercise The police assessment exercise was designed to obtain a range of information from all investigations in the seven Pathfinder divisions in which a forensic match (in other words, fingerprint identifications, conventional SGM plus or LCN DNA matches, footwear or fingerprint matches) was obtained. 15 In all such cases, the officer(s) in the case (OIC) was asked to assess the contribution of the forensic match in detecting the crime and then to evaluate the match information in light of all the other evidence that was available. The leading objective of this exercise was to assess the impact of forensic science on crime investigations in four critical respects: its ability to provide the first link between a suspect and a crime scene; its ability to provide a significant contribution in building a case against the suspect; whether crimes where such evidence is available are more likely to be detected; and whether the notification of the link subsequently leads to more cases being detected. Method of collecting the data The police assessment and outcome exercise was triggered when SSUs at GMP and Lancashire reported a forensic identification (fingerprint or DNA match etc.) to the division. At that moment, the members of the evaluation team issued an assessment form for completion by the OIC. In the course of the evaluation, the research team issued forms in 99 per cent (1,703) of all the 1,719 forensic idents that were notified to them by the SSUs. These forms related to idents from crime scenes from any of the seven Pathfinder divisions in the 12 months of the project from 1 June 2000. This evaluation form contained three sections: an ident monitoring form that was partly completed by the evaluation team and recorded details about the identification, the crime and the suspect; a detected case evaluation form; and an undetected case evaluation form for completion by the OIC. In cases that were cleared up, the OIC recorded on the appropriate form details about the relative value of the forensic identification in clearing up the crime. Where the crime was undetected, the OIC completed the other evaluation form and explained why the crime was not detected in circumstances where the suspect was known. Both the undetected and detected case evaluation forms also recorded information on whether the forensic identification was the first link between the suspect and the crime and whether the identification had led to the detection of other crimes. Ensuring the successful completion of the police assessment exercise was the field team s major preoccupation from the point at which the exercise was formally implemented in late 2000. Many of the Pathfinder divisions are subdivided into smaller operational units, and a member of the field team visited each operational unit on a weekly basis. Although this weekly round of visits over a wide geographical area was time-consuming, it allowed the team to ensure that the evaluation forms were distributed, completed and returned. A high 15 The exercise was extended beyond that initially planned, in order to encompass all crimes, rather than simply the volume property crimes targeted under Pathfinder. This enabled a more comprehensive picture to be provided for the concurrent DNA Expansion evaluation. 31

premium was placed on achieving a high response rate that could be considered to be reasonably representative. Overall the approach paid dividends, and of the 1,703 evaluation forms issued, 1,208 were returned duly completed. This response rate (71%) is a much higher response than the 45 per cent achieved by the Speakman survey, an unpublished ACPO/police report into the effectiveness of DNA. The issue and return rates are set out in Figure 5.1 below. Figure 5.1: Numbers of idents monitored and returned Total number of forensic idents notified between 1/6/00 and 31/05/01 = 1,719 Total number of evaluation forms issued= 1,703 Total number of cases where the detected/undetected case evaluation forms not returned = 495 (29%) Total number of cases where either detected or undetected case evaluation form was returned = 1,208 (71%) The police assessment and outcome database Ident monitoring forms were issued in 1,703 cases, and all of those forms were collated as a dataset that could provide a comprehensive analysis of all forensic idents. In 71 per cent of the cases (1,208 in total) on the database, the ident monitoring form was supplemented by a detected or undetected case evaluation form. Of those 1,208 cases, 73 per cent related to detected cases while 27 per cent related to undetected cases. Figure 5.2: Breakdown of police case-tracking database (N =1,703) Total number of forensic idents on database = 1,703 Total number of ident monitoring forms only = 495 (29%) Total number of ident monitoring forms with either detected or undetected case return = 1,208 (71%) Detected case returns = 883 (73%) Undetected case returns = 325 (27%) 32

Levels of analysis The conventional unit of analysis in this area is forensic identification, but it was possible to analyse the data relating to suspects (the identity of the individual who has been linked to a crime); crimes (that is to say the individual incident that was crimed ); or detections (i.e. whether the crime was detected, or not). 16 The 1,703 forensic identifications held on the dataset related to 1,306 crimes. In ten per cent of these there was at least one more forensic ident in the case: different types of forensic material relating to the same individual or more than one individual who had been linked to a particular crime. The police assessment and outcome exercise was focused solely on forensic idents that were (a) lifted from one of the seven Pathfinder divisions during (b) the 12-month duration of the Pathfinder project. Considerable care was taken to ensure that these two criteria were strictly observed. The evaluation form recorded the type of match providing the initial forensic identification. In the course of the investigation further forensic identifications (some of which might have related to the months preceding the commencement of the Pathfinder project) and other evidence might come to light. If the crime was detected then that full range of evidence was also recorded and it was possible to establish what evidence was available and its value. In this chapter of the report, however, the data are only concerned with the initial forensic match. Details of all initial forensic identifications Figure 5.3 presents the types of crime against which the initial identifications have been reported. Just under half (49%) of the identifications are related to burglary offences: 30 per cent relate to burglary in a dwelling and 19 per cent to burglary other than a dwelling. Just over a quarter (27%) of the identifications were for vehicle crime: thefts of vehicles accounting for 21 per cent and thefts from only six per cent. The remaining offence categories violence, criminal damage, robbery and other crimes accounted for only 24 per cent of the total identifications. Figure 5.3: Types of crime that resulted in forensic identifications (N=1,703) Criminal damage 2% Robbery 3% Other 16% Burglary 30% Violence 3% Theft from motor vehicle 6% Theft of motor vehicle 21% Burglary OTD 19% 16 The findings presented here have largely been analysed at the level of the forensic identification. It should be borne in mind that when taking forensic identifications as the unit of analysis, it may be that multiple evaluation forms have been completed in respect of identifications obtained from different forms of contact trace material, but which could relate to the same suspect, the same crime or same detection. This could arise where subsequent forensic identifications have come to light at a later point. Similarly, there could be multiple forms completed in respect of different forensic identifications where the crimes are the same, but the suspects are different. This circumstance might arise where two or more suspects have left contact trace material at the same crime scene. 33

Figure 5.4 indicates the type of forensic material involved in these initial identifications. Sixtyeight per cent involved fingerprints, with conventional DNA (SGM plus) accounting for 17 per cent. LCN DNA and shoe marks accounted for seven per cent and eight per cent respectively of all initial identifications. One toolmark appeared as an initial identification. Figure 5.4: Types of forensic evidence involved in forensic identifications (N=1,703) Shoe marks 8% Tool Mark <1% Conventional DNA 17% LCN DNA 7% Fingerprints 68% OICs completing the assessment of forensic identifications have to report whether the case was detected or undetected before completing an assessment form (this was irrespective of the part that the forensic evidence might have played in reaching each outcome). Although there were many similarities, the assessment forms differed in each case those required in respect of detected cases focused primarily on the value of the evidence in making a case against the suspect, whereas those relating to undetected cases focused primarily on why it was not possible to reach a successful outcome. In 73 per cent of cases, a detection was achieved. This applies to all identifications in the Pathfinder divisions. Focusing only on burglary and vehicle crime offences, 81 per cent of the identifications relating related to detections and 19 per cent related to undetected cases. 17 Detected cases There are three possible measures of the utility of a forensic ident in detecting a case. The obvious measure is clearly the value of the ident in detecting or clearing up a crime. (i.e. contributing evidence to support a charge or other sanction). However, a forensic ident might have had a useful role in making the first link to a suspect who was later charged with an offence. Moreover, a forensic ident used in the detection of one crime might lead to the detection of others. Was the identification the first link to the suspect? The ability of forensic intelligence to provide a first link between a crime scene and a suspect can be crucial this information can often prove the means to solving the crime, even if it does not subsequently prove necessary to call on it in court proceedings. The identification reported was the first link in just under half of all cases (45%). In a further 11 per cent of cases, the identity of the suspect was already known, but the other evidence was weak. By contrast, in two out of every five case (40%), there was either already significant other evidence to link the suspect, or he/she had already been charged with the offence. There are some interesting differences between the types of forensic evidence: SGM plus matches provided the first link in 23 per cent of such matches; LCN did so in 23 per cent of LCN matches; fingerprints were less likely to provide a first link, doing so in nine per cent of such matches. 17 This ratio is applied in the model developed in Chapter 6. 34

What was the range of evidence available in clearing up a case? So far the discussion has focused on the initial forensic ident provided to the officer in the case. Clearly, however, in the course of the investigation of a crime, more evidence including other types of forensic evidence becomes available, and it is critical, when a crime has been detected, to assess the whole range of evidence. For detected cases, OICs were asked to review a comprehensive range of evidence and assess where the ident played some or an essential part in making the case against the suspect. Overall, in three-quarters of these initial Pathfinder idents (666 of 883: 75%), the link was viewed as having some, or an essential, role. Almost two-thirds (64%) of these idents in detected cases were fingerprints, while DNA evidence (SGM plus or LCN) comprised just under a quarter of all forensic idents (23%). Shoemark evidence and tool mark evidence accounted for twelve and one per cent of all such idents respectively. In detected cases it is possible to have either a combination of forensic idents (fingerprints and shoemarks, for example) or a combination of forensic and conventional evidence (say, SGM plus and witness). Table 5.1 summarises the instances when forensic evidence was combined with other forensic idents in clearing up a crime, and the data are drawn from the 666 forensic idents that had some or an essential part in the detection of the crime. From table 5.1 it is apparent that, where SGM plus DNA or fingerprints contributed to information that was used to detect a crime, it was usually the only forensic ident available and it was seldom found in combination with other forensic idents. On the other hand, toolmark evidence is distinct in that, where it played a role in clearing up a crime, it was always as would be expected found to be in combination with other idents, such as fingerprints or LCN DNA. Table 5.1: Cases cleared-up where there was a combination of forensic idents (n=666) (row percentages) Type of ident Percentage of occasions where ident appeared in combination with other idents Percentage of occasions where ident was not combined with another forensic ident SGM plus 14 86 Fingerprint 16 84 Shoemark 35 65 LCN 38 62 Toolmark 100 0 What was the value of the forensic ident in building the case against the suspect? Police respondents were next to establish the contribution of both the forensic identification and all other types of evidence available to them in building the case against a suspect. Fifteen types of evidence (forensic and non-forensic) were pre-coded on the questionnaire, and officers also had the option to specify others. Table 5.2 presents a summary of the relative value of the 666 forensic idents that had either some or an essential role in detecting crime. Table 5.2: Detected cases: what was the contribution of the forensic identification in building the case against the suspect? (n=666) (column percentages) SGM plus % LCN % Fingerprint % Shoemarks % Toolmarks % Some 12 11 23 34 60 contribution Essential 88 89 77 66 40 contribution TOTAL 100 100 100 100 100 Of all the 666 forensic idents that were believed to have had some or an essential role in the detection of crime, police officers placed the highest value on DNA identifications (SGM plus or LCN). Fingerprint identifications came close behind, being seen as having an essential 35

contribution in just over three-quarters of cases. Toolmarks were the ident that were least likely to be described as essential, but the assessment is made on a very small sample (only five tool marks overall). Did the detection of the immediate case lead to the detection of other crimes? The police respondents were asked whether the investigation of the case under assessment also led to the detection of other crimes. The question was framed in a general fashion, and it could be either the contribution of forensic or other types of evidence that led to the detection of other cases. From the 883 forensic idents that led to the detection of the crime, 17 per cent were reported to lead to the detection of other crimes. Once again there are interesting differences between the different types of forensic matches. LCN was most likely to lead to additional detections (in 13% of cases), followed by SGM plus ( 9%), and fingerprints (6%). In the 17 per cent of forensic idents (147 in all) that led to the detection of other crimes, the OIC was asked to provide details of the number and type of crimes that were cleared up, and importantly to give an assessment of the part that the forensic ident played in the detection of other crimes. Fifty-six per cent of these idents led to the detection of just one additional crime, and a further 16 per cent led to the detection of just two crimes. Table 5.3: Identifications that resulted in a detection: how many other crimes were detected as a result of the investigation of the case under assessment? (n=147) n % One other crime detected 82 56 Two other crimes detected 23 16 Three other crimes detected 13 9 Four other crimes detected 18 12 More than four crimes detected 11 7 Total 147 100 Overall, these 147 detections led to the clearing up of an additional 420 crimes. In terms of the overall number of crimes detected, 883 idents led to the clearing up of 1,303 crimes (i.e. the 883 initial crimes cleared plus the 420 additional detections), an average of 1.5 detections per ident detection. Outcome of detected cases The great majority (92%) of the detected cases resulted in a charge, caution or TIC. Figure 5.5 indicates that in 82 per cent of cases a charge was made, eight per cent were TICd and two per cent resulted in a caution. Figure 5.5: Detected cases by outcome of case (n=883) Offence TIC 8% Detected, no proceedings 4% Other 4% Reported for caution 2% Charged 82% 36

Undetected cases The data on forensic idents that did not lead to a detection was drawn from the 325 undetected case evaluation forms (27% of the sample) that were returned by the OIC. Was the forensic ident the first link to a suspect? The identification was reported to be the first link in nearly two-thirds of all cases (64%), somewhat higher than the comparable figure for the detected sample (at 45%). In a further 12 per cent of cases, the identity of the suspect was already known, but the other evidence was weak meaning that in just over three-quarters of undetected cases (76%) the forensic match appeared to make a significant positive contribution to suspect identification. In about a quarter of cases (24%), there was either already significant other evidence to link the suspect, or it was not clear how the suspect had been linked to the offence. Reasons for the case being undetected It is important to be able to establish why it does not always prove possible to detect an offence, despite the forensic match between a suspect and the crime scene. The survey questionnaire offered three possible reasons as to why this was the case, and several options within each. As there may be a number of explanations in any one case, the numbers of reasons (377 in all) exceed the total number of undetected identifications (325). Considering all the 377 responses: in 60 per cent, the OIC indicated the suspect had been eliminated from enquiries; in 14 per cent, the suspect could not be traced; in 26 per cent, there were other reasons why the case could not be detected for example, the identification was a partial hit, or it was decided that it would not be in the public interest to proceed. Did the forensic ident lead to the detection of other crimes? Although the forensic ident does not always lead to the detection of the case under investigation, it may have some utility in leading to the clear up of other offences. In completing the undetected case evaluation form, the OIC was asked to state whether the investigation led to the detection of other crimes and offences, and whether the forensic evidence played a part in connecting the suspect with the offence. In only four per cent of undetected cases 13 cases did the investigation lead to the detection of other crimes. The number of additional detections achieved in relation to undetected crimes amounted to only 30 additional offences. CPS tracking and assessment exercise A separate assessment and outcome exercise was put in place with the CPS. The purpose of this exercise was to evaluate the importance of the forensic evidence in the prosecution of burglary and vehicle crime cases that emanated from the seven Pathfinder divisions. The leading objectives of this exercise were to assess: the relative importance of the forensic evidence in proving the guilt of the defendant; the outcome of the case (whether the defendant was found guilty or not); and, where the defendant was not convicted, why this was the case Method of collecting the data In order for the Branch Crown Prosecutors (BCPs) to identify the cases, it was necessary for the evaluation team to obtain the CPS s own Unique Reference Number (URN) from the police forces File Preparation Units (FPUs). To facilitate this, the FSS Project Co-ordinator liaised with the FPUs and reached an agreement that the evaluation team would provide the FPUs with a list of appropriate Pathfinder cases that had resulted in a charge, and the FPUs would search that list and provide the URN if it was available. Searching across the seven Pathfinder divisions, the evaluation team identified 708 cases of vehicle crime and burglary that resulted in a charge. When the list was submitted to the FPUs, they were able to provide URNs for 71 per cent of cases on the list (502 in total). In 37

consultation with the BCPs and the FSS, it was decided that the volume of cases would be too great for the CPS to assess, so the decision was taken to selectively sample the cases prior to assessment. The 502 cases involved a high proportion of fingerprints and it was decided to randomly sample fingerprint cases from the later phases of the work. This reduced the total number of cases sent to the CPS for assessment to 413, or 82 per cent of all cases where a URN was found. Of the 413 URNs that were sent to the CPS, 265 cases were returned; a return rate of 64 per cent. Findings from the CPS database Of all the 265 cases the great majority (74%) related to burglary cases (burglary in a dwelling, burglary non-dwelling and the aggravated forms of those offences). Only 26 per cent of cases related to vehicle crime and the majority of those involved taking a motor vehicle without the owner s consent (TWOC). The breakdown of cases is summarised in Figure 5.4 below. Table 5.4: Breakdown of offences dealt by the CPS (n=265) Taking a motor vehicle without consent 22% Vehicle interference 1% Theft of motor vehicle 1% Aggravated vehicle taking 2% Burglary dwelling 42% Aggravated burglary dwelling 1% Burglary other than dwelling 29% Aggravated other burglary 2% As might be expected from the police assessment exercise, just under half (47%) of all the forensic idents in the CPS assessment were fingerprints. SGM plus and LCN DNA together account for just over a third (35%) of all forensic idents, with shoemarks and other evidence (including toolmarks) accounting for respectively 17 per cent and one per cent. In order to maximise the details on case outcome, it was decided to continue the CPS assessment exercise until the end of September/beginning of October 2001. Of the 265 cases that were assessed, a high proportion (84%) had been finally disposed of by the court. In 86 per cent of these cases, the defendant pleaded guilty to the original offence (in 77% of cases) or to an alternative charge (9% of cases). Only four per cent of the cases were disposed of following a trial; there was an equal split between those who were subsequently acquitted or convicted (Table 5.6). Figure 5.6. Breakdown of outcome at court (n=223) Prosecution stayed 9% Charges laid on file 1% Def acquitted 2% Def found guilty 2% Def pleaded guilty to alternative charge 9% Def pleaded guilty 77% 38

In 11 per cent of cases (25 in total), the defendant was not convicted even though there was forensic evidence linking him or her to the offence. The reasons for that are set out in Table 5.5. In just under half of the cases (12) that did not result in a conviction, it was reported that the defendant was found to have no case to answer or that the essential elements of the case (other than the forensic evidence) had not been proved beyond reasonable doubt. In one case, it was reported that the defence had successfully challenged the forensic evidence presented by the prosecution, without calling their own expert witness. Table 5.5: Reasons why the defendant was not convicted (n=25) Not in the public interest 29% No case 33% Not proved 17% Evidence challenged 4% Other 17% The outcome of a case can, however, depend on a variety of factors, including the reliability and sufficiency of the evidence that is provided. In an attempt to understand the role played by the forensic evidence in establishing the guilt of the defendant, the CPS respondents were asked to give an assessment of the relative importance of that evidence. Of all 223 cases that were resulted, 139 items of forensic evidence were said to have been of some or most importance in establishing the defendant s guilt. The highest value 87% was placed on conventional (SGM plus) DNA, and 80% of both fingerprint evidence and shoe mark evidence were also rated as most important. In short, physical evidence had a very high perceived value. The perspective from the courts The third and final element of the case tracking work undertaken for the evaluation focused on the Magistrates Courts serving the Pathfinder divisions where the aim was to determine the outcomes of those cases which contained forensic evidence, and monitor key features of these cases. In particular, it was important to see if the presence of forensic evidence had a discernible impact on the way in which the case progressed, for example on the overall duration of the case and final outcome in terms of conviction. Case lifespan The desirability of reducing, as far as possible, delays in the criminal justice system is widely recognised and, in the context of police investigations, it is considered that the more rapidly a link can be established between a suspect and a crime scene, the greater likelihood there is that the case can be detected. The average number of days taken from the date the crime scene was visited to the final conclusion of the case in the Magistrates Court was an average of 221 days (31 weeks and four days) per case. In the absence of any aggregate data from either Lancashire or Manchester Magistrates Court Committees (MCCs) it was necessary to compare the Pathfinder with the averages by the Lord Chancellor s Department s Time Interval Study (TIS). Each year the TIS produces the average time for criminal cases in the Magistrates Courts, by indictable offences, summary non-motoring and summary motoring offences. Table 5.6 compares the average number of days to conclude a Pathfinder case with the average number of days to conclude indictable cases and summary non-motoring cases. 39

Table 5.6: Average number of days taken to dispose of case: Pathfinder cases and national averages Pathfinder cases: average number of days Indictable cases: average number of days Summary nonmotoring: average number of days Offence to charge or 96(a) 46 76 laying of information Charge to final 125 68 54 disposal Total days 221 114 129(b) (a) The figure is taken from date of visiting crime scene to laying of information; the LCD figures are date of offence to laying of information. (b) Column does not add up because of rounding. Sources: Pathfinder database and Table 6.4, Criminal Statistics 2000. On average, a Pathfinder case appears to take nearly twice as long as an indictable case. The comparison becomes even less favourable as the Pathfinder average is measured from the date the crime scene is visited, whilst the TIS averages are measured from the date the offence was committed which is almost invariably an earlier date (and cannot be a later date). However, the comparison is by no means perfect and a number of caveats should be noted. First, in calculating the averages from the Pathfinder data, it was not possible to strictly follow the method adopted by the LCD in calculating the data for the TIS; the Pathfinder figures are simply averages of the available data. Second, the LCD provides its data as averages of either indictable or summary non-motoring cases, whilst the Pathfinder data is a mixture of the both indictable and summary cases (and is dominated by volume property crimes). It might be that the Pathfinder data are skewed and do not reflect the composition of the TIS data. Third, allied to the composition of case types is the composition of forensic evidence. The sample of cases that produced the average time for the Pathfinder cases all include the forensic evidence, whereas the TIS data will only include an (unquantified) proportion of cases with forensic evidence. However, the effect of the time taken to dispose of a case must be influenced by the time taken to produce a forensic ident, and this can be considerable. For example, it is known that: fingerprint identifications were typically reported in 32 days; SGM plus matches typically took 42 days; and LCN matches typically took 72 days. Fourth, and perhaps more significantly, the average results from the Pathfinder cases are likely to be distorted by the inclusion of historic cases where forensic evidence is resubmitted to take advantage of new techniques (With the introduction of the National Automated Fingerprint Identification System, for example, both forces ran a number of old cases through the system). This makes a fair comparison with the TIS data problematic, although the cases where the time between crime scene visit and match exceeded 150 days were excluded from the averages produced from the Pathfinder cases. Furthermore, since 1999 the LCD now includes cases that took longer to complete, and those figures are included in Table 5.6 above. Differences in key aspects of court proceedings The other supposed benefit of forensic evidence is that it makes the likelihood of a conviction more reliable. To test this hypothesis, the evaluation tracked the outcome of the 473 cases that contained forensic evidence and which were disposed of in the Magistrates Courts. 40

Those outcome data were compared with the outcomes of indictable and summary nonmotoring cases for 2000 (published in Criminal Statistics). The findings are presented in Table 5.7. The table shows that the Pathfinder cases were four per cent more likely to result in a conviction (either following a trial or by plea) than all indictable and summary non-motoring cases in England and Wales (i.e. 72% - 68%). Similarly, Pathfinder cases were 11 per cent less likely to be withdrawn or discontinued, and fewer Pathfinder cases were committed to the Crown Court. However, Pathfinder cases were more than five times as likely to result in the charges being dismissed when compared against the national figures. The reasons for this are not known, but it might reflect the fact that fewer Pathfinder cases are being withdrawn or discontinued. Table 5.7: Comparison of key court indices: Pathfinder cases and national averages Total proceeded against % withdrawn/ discontinued % dismissed/ acquitted % committed to Crown Court % found guilty Pathfinder cases 473 13 11 4 72 Indictable and summary nonmotoring offences: England and Wales 1,117,763 24 2 6 68 41

6. Modelling attrition and the impact of forensic science on property crime detection This chapter of the report summarises the main sources of attrition, before moving on to present the FSS model of the impact of forensic science on crime, the enhancements suggested by the current research and the implications for crime detection nationally. Attrition While the term attrition is generally applied to the shortfall between the number of crimes and consequential convictions, the real focus of work in this area is generally directed at the drop in the number of persons suspects identified and convictions. Certainly, the evaluation of the two initiatives has been able to shed light on the main sources of attrition from the point at which forensic identifications intelligence linking suspects to crime scenes have been reported. But with respect to this starting point the research has emphasised that forensic identifications do not in themselves provide a definite link between a specific offender and a crime. Figure 6.1 illustrates the impact of these sources of attrition on burglary and vehicle crime offences. Attrition is found in two main areas. Identifications where the offence remains undetected. Some 27 per cent of identifications are not detected, and the main reasons are that the suspect successfully maintained he or she had legitimate access, i.e. a legitimate reason for being at the crime scene), or was eliminated by other means. In a significant minority of cases, he or she simply cannot be traced. Identifications where the case is detected and charged, but no conviction is achieved. Some 11 per cent of charged cases fall in this category. In a third of these cases, the CPS decided that there was no case to answer and in slightly less than a third, the CPS decided prosecution would not be in the public interest. Some identifications did not result in a charge but did result in a case being detected, mainly through TICs or cautions. Eighteen per cent of detections resulting form an identification fell into this category. 42

Figure 6.1: Principal sources of attrition: police, CPS and court data collection exercises Identifications (100%) Detected (73%) Reported for caution (2%) Offence TIC d (8%) Charged (82%) No proceedings (4%) Other (4%) Lawful entry by suspect (47%) Suspect eliminated by other means (25%) Convicted (87%) Not convicted (11%) Acquitted (2%) CPS: no case to answer (33%) Not proved (17%) Evidence challenged (4%) Not in public interest (29%) Other (17%) 43 Undetected (27%) Insufficient evidence to charge (6%) Address not known (5%) Suspect absconded (5%) Other reasons (12%)

Modelling the impact of forensic science in crime detection In 1999, the FSS developed an initial model to illustrate these effects. This model has been tested and developed using the data collected in this study with the exception of the final step the relationship between detections/convictions and crime reduction is not considered as this issue fell outside the remit of this project. The FSS General Crime Reduction Model The other side of the attrition coin is the extent to which forensic evidence contributes to crime detection, and subsequently, crime reduction. Table 6.1 presents the FSS General Crime Reduction model for property crime, indicating the crucial relationships between the different stages in the process. This hypothetical model applies to the first year of intervention and it is suggested that the crime reduction effect would be improved in later years, largely because the recovery of contact trace material (CTM) could be improved. Table 6.1: The FSS General Crime Reduction model (year 1) for property crime: original estimates Contact Trace Material (CTM) Recovery efficiency Start: 50,000 Crime scenes visited DNA 5% (2,500) 10% Footmarks (5,000) 5% Fingerprints (2,500) Toolmarks 2% (1,000) Matching efficiency 30% (750) 5% (250) 20% (500) 5% (50) Detections 60% of matches Scenes linked through admissions 3 scenes per match Crimes detected 1,395 Deterrence effect (in later years) Double number of detected TOTAL 22% = 1,550 = 930 = 2,790 (11,000) Adjusted total 11% (5,500) = 1,395 Overall impact 50,000 (=100%) = 2,790 5.6% The starting point of the model is the number of crime scenes visited by SOCOs and not the number of recorded crimes themselves. Starting at crime scenes visited is entirely logical, but it is a different starting point from other work carried out by various government departments into attrition, which commences with all recorded crime. Indeed, the definition applied by the Trilateral Working Group on Attrition is: Attrition is the filtering process which occurs between an offence and a conviction or caution For illustrative purposes, the FSS model assumes as a base 50,000 crime scenes visited and from this point, it incorporates five stages, or critical relationships: Step 1. Recovery efficiency, and adjustment for different forms of CTM at one crime scene. The model suggests the ability to recover different forms of trace material from crime scenes varies with shoemarks likely to be recovered at as many as ten per cent overall, but toolmarks at only two per cent. 44

The total of the individual recovery efficiencies is 22 per cent. However, the model also recognises that more than one form of CTM could be collected from the same scene. The model thus reduces the overall total by one-half in order to estimate the proportion of scenes yielding at least one type of CTM. Hence an adjusted total of 11 per cent is given in the model. Step 2. Matching efficiency. The model suggests that the ability to obtain a person-toscene match varies quite markedly for the different types of contact trace material with the matching efficiency being relatively low for footmarks and toolmarks (at 5%) and much higher for DNA (at 30%). Step 3. Detections. Following the lessons derived from work carried out by the FSS with police forces (notably a pilot project carried out with the Sussex police) the model surmises that some 60 per cent of forensic identifications will be converted into detections. Step 4. Scenes linked through admissions. Despite the shortfall (of some 40%) in the number of detections derived from identifications, the model assumes that an additional two admissions will be obtained from suspects in cases that are detected bringing the total number of crime scenes linked by each match to three or 2,780 scenes in total. Taking account of the fact that more than one form of CTM may be found at a crime scene, the adjusted total of scenes linked through admissions is 1,395. Deterrence effect. The model suggests that each crime detected (either by means of a direct identification or through scenes linked through admission) will deter another two crimes. 18 The model therefore suggests that the recovery of CTM at 50,000 property crime scenes visited would lead to 1,395 detections and reduce crime by 2,790 (through detection and deterrence). Expressed as a percentage, 2.8 per cent of property crime scenes visited would lead to detections (or 1,395 of 50,000 crime scenes) and there would be a crime reduction impact equivalent to 5.6 per cent of the initial number of crimes scenes visited (2,790 of 50,000). If it is assumed that around one-third of property crime scenes are visited, detections resulting from forensic activity represent 0.9 per cent of all recorded property crime. Enhancements to the model Debate about the FSS model has frequently centred on its purpose; it has often been interpreted as a definitive statement, rather than a developmental tool requiring further enhancement. By the same token, it has been uncertain whether the relationship between the different sets of data are supposed to represent typical practice or best practice. Learning from this experience, it is helpful to highlight that, for the enhanced model developed below. The various steps are intended to account for the principal mechanisms found to influence the collection and processing of forensic evidence in the GMP and Lancashire areas; it may be appropriate that these mechanisms should be altered to suit local circumstances. The types of forensic evidence reviewed here do not encompass all forms of such evidence; for example, the analysis of fibre, glass etc. is not included. The coverage is of the main types/techniques only. The data in the model relate to all burglary and vehicle crime, the volume property crimes that formed the focus of the Pathfinder project. The potential of forensic science is clearly growing, and continuing changes such as the use of NAFIS, further resources from the DNA Expansion Programme and new techniques such as LCN will each affect the 18 The particular crime dealt with in the model has of course already been committed: this figure assumes each offender is deterred from committing two crimes in the future. 45

model. The model will require frequent update and, where local use is anticipated, then populating the model with local data is critical. Table 6.2 presents a new model that seeks to take into account the greater complexity of the relationships between the collection and use of forensic material, on the one hand, and crime detection and prosecution on the other. It falls into three phases scene attendance to suspect identification, identification to detection, and detection to conviction. The relationships in the first phase vary according to the type of CTM recovered, but those in phase 2 and 3 remain constant. The starting point of the model is represented by 1.8 million recorded burglary and vehicle crime offences, approximately the number of such offences recorded in England and Wales each year. 19 Unless stated, the relationships in the scene attendance to identification stage have been derived from the data collected in GMP and Lancashire during the evaluation. The table presents estimates relating to all five forms of forensic material discussed in the first part of this report, but separates the two forms of evidence used by all forces fingerprints and SGM plus DNA as the conventional approaches, from those used much less widely, or not at all: LCN, footwear and toolmarks. The commentary following traces the key steps of the model. 19 There were a total of 1,739,715 recorded offences in the year to 31 March 2001 comprising 836,027 burglary offences and 951,688 thefts of and from vehicles. 46

TABLE 6.2. MHB model of the impact of forensic science in the detection of volume property crime Start point: 1,800,000 recorded burglary and autocrime offences A. Scene attendance to identification B. Identification to detection C. Detection to case resolution Recovery rate Contact trace Scene for potential TOTAL material (CTM) attendance CTM Recovery Match rate IDENTS Adjustment for more than one Identifications form of CTM at leading to same crime detections Detections where CTM was of value in clearing up the case Additional detections derived from investigation of primary TOTAL identification DETECTIONS Detections resulting in a charge Convictions TICs resulting from case charged Cautioned Stages 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 TOTAL CONVICTIONS, CAUTIONS AND TICs Rates 34% Variable Variable 91% 81% 90% 52% 80% 88% 10% 1% Baseline of recorded of scene crime attendance of recovery of total of detections identifications of idents (col.5) (col.6) of detections (col.7) (col. 7+8) of total detections (col 9) of charges (col 10) of detected of where CTM convictions was of value (col 11) (col 7) (cols. 11+12+13) CONVENTIONAL APPROACHES Fingerprints 28% 171,360 25% 42,840 38,984 31,577 28,420 14,778 43,198 34,558 30,411 3,041 284 33,737 SGM plus 6% 36,720 44% 16,083 14,636 11,855 10,669 5,548 16,217 12,974 11,417 1,142 107 12,665 TOTAL 612,000 208,080 58,923 53,620 43,432 39,089 20,326 59,415 47,532 41,828 4,183 391 46,402 3.3% 2.6% detected convicted ENHANCED FORENSIC ACTIVITY LCN 12% 73,440 12% 8,519 7,752 6,279 5,651 2,939 8,590 6,872 6,047 605 57 6,709 Footwear 15% 91,800 3% 2,754 2,506 2,030 1,827 950 2,777 2,222 1,955 196 18 2,169 Toolmarks 2% 12,240 3% 367 334 271 244 127 370 296 261 26 2 289 OVERALL 612,000 385,560 70,563 64,213 52,012 46,811 24,342 71,153 56,922 50,091 5,009 468 55,569 4.0% 3.1% detected convicted DNA only: separating recovery of potential DNA, useable samples obtained and match rate Contact trace material (CTM) Recovery rate Scene for potential attendance CTM Recovery Proportion of useable samples Useable (DNA only) samples Match rate TOTAL IDENTIFICATI ONS SGM plus 6% 36,720 60% 22,032 73% 16,083 LCN 12% 73,440 18% 13,219 63% 8,328 Total 612,000 differences with figures above arise because of 'rounding' percentages 47

Scene attendance to identification Step 1. Scene attendance. The starting figure in the model is the number of crime scenes visited by SOCOs, expressed as a percentage of recorded crime. The figure of 34 per cent represents the midpoint between the proportion visited in the Pathfinder divisions and the non-pathfinder divisions. Step 2. Recovery rate for potential contact trace material per scene visited. The model then needs to take into account the fact that the ability to recover CTM from crime scenes varies. The recovery figures presented here ranging from 28 per cent for fingerprints to two per cent for toolmarks again represent the midpoint between those found in the Pathfinder and the non-pathfinder. 20 It should be noted that, in order to present the most likely outcome if LCN were widely available to forces (i.e. at a comparable costs to SGM plus), the recovery figure presented here matches that obtained by SOCOs in the Pathfinder divisions (12%), not the higher rate achieved by FEs (which rose to 51%). The latter figure however represents a potential target that could perhaps be reached by SOCOs in future. The original FSS model halves the total recovery rate to take into account the fact that some scenes yield more than one type of CTM. This issue is not dealt with at this point. This is because the police assessment and outcome exercise do indicate how many identifications relate to the same case, rendering the estimate of how far several types of CTM are collected at the same scenes as superfluous. The issue is therefore considered at a later point, under Identifications to detections. Step 3. Match rate. The model then takes into account the ability to obtain a person-toscene match from the material collected from crime scenes. This again varies quite significantly for the different types of contact trace material. The match rate is relatively low for footmarks and toolmarks, higher for LCN (at 12%), rises to 25 per cent for fingerprints, and reaches 44 per cent for SGM plus DNA. Again, these figures represent the midpoint between those found in both the Pathfinder and the non- Pathfinder divisions. For the different forms of DNA, there is often a keen interest in the intermediate point between the recovery of a potential sample and the match, namely in the ability to obtain a useable sample that can either be loaded or searched on the NDNAD. This is a particular interest in relation to swabbing for LCN, where the forensic material sought is not visible to the human eye. To address this issue within the confines of the model itself threatens to cause confusion, so the relationships are presented in a separate box inset in Table 7.2. This shows that: LCN is recovered at about twice the rate as SGM plus, at 12 per cent of crime scenes as opposed to six per cent; on the other hand, the evidence suggests SGM plus samples are much more likely to be useable by a factor of three (60% compared with 18%) 21 the two techniques are more closely aligned when the ability to obtain matches from useable samples is considered: here SGM plus achieves matches in 73 per cent of cases and LCN in 63 per cent of cases. 20 LCN figures are taken from Pathfinder divisions only. 21 The SGM plus figures shown here for useable samples per case are derived from data collected for the evaluation of the DNA Expansion Programme. During the first year of the programme all forces in England and Wales submitted 76 per cent of SGM plus CTM derived from crime scenes to the NDNAD, and 79 per cent of these samples were loaded on the Database: overall 60 per cent of SGM plus samples derived from crime scenes were loaded.

The figures shown in this box match those shown in the main table; the only difference is the match rate presented there is lower, because it does not relate to useable samples, but to the recovery of potential CTM. Step 4. Total identifications. The total identifications can then be derived; these total 58,923 for the two conventional approaches, with an additional 10,715 derived from enhanced forensic activities. The combined total is 69,646. Identification to detection Calculations made in this chapter of the model are all derived from the police assessment and outcome exercise (reported in Chapter 5). The account presented in Chapter 5 does, however, refer to all identifications, whereas the model deals only with burglary and vehicle crime offences. There are, therefore, some differences in the figures presented, although identifications arising from burglary and vehicle crime offences accounted for some 76 per cent of the sample analysed in this earlier chapter: Step 5. Adjustment for more than one form of contact trace material at the same crime. It is necessary to recognise that several identifications may be found in relation to the same crime, 22 and this difference needs to be factored in. Here too the evidence from the police assessment and outcome exercise is called upon; this established that the 932 identifications from burglary and vehicle crime offences related to 847 crimes. Applying this figure means the number of detections of the primary case need to be reduced marginally (applying a multiplier of 0.91). Step 6. Identifications leading to detections. The next step is to take account of the proportion of these cases that were detected. The evidence from the police assessment and outcome exercise was that 81 per cent of burglary and vehicle crime offences where forensic identifications have been produced led to detections (i.e. some 8 points higher than the figure for all crime; see Chapter 4). Step 7. Detections where contact trace material was of value in clearing up the case. Just because a crime where forensic material is collected is cleared up, it does not mean that this intelligence was instrumental in achieving the clear-up. In the police outcome and assessment exercise, officers were asked to identify those cases where the identification was some value or essential in making the case against the suspect; 90 per cent of the detected cases were so classified. Step 8. Additional detections derived from investigation of detected crimes. A proportion of detections initiated by forensic evidence will lead to other detections (the issue of whether these too arose from forensic evidence is immaterial). The evidence from the police assessment and outcome exercise, as summarised in Chapter 5, is that only a relatively small proportion of forensic identifications 17 per cent lead to the detection of other cases. On the other hand, some of these cases can yield quite substantial numbers of additional detections through admissions. Overall, the evidence suggested that, on average, a burglary or vehicle crime offence detected by means of a forensic identification typically yields half an additional detection (0.52). Step 9. Total detections. This column of the model simply adds together the primary detections, after adjustment (column 7) with the additional detections (column 8) to give a total of detections obtained. At this point: the calculations suggest that 3.3 per cent of the hypothetical 1.8 million crimes would be detected by virtue of conventional approaches to forensic evidence; and 22 The obvious possibilities are that more than one form of contact trace material is found for the same person, or that a crime has more than one perpetrator. As the focus of the model is crimes, the calculation here only examines how many identifications related to the same crime. 49

with the addition of enhanced forensic activity, some four per cent would be detected. Table 6.3 presents a breakdown of these detections according to the different forms of forensic evidence. Table 6.3: Breakdown of detections at the end of Phase 2 of the model LCN DNA 12% SGM plus DNA 23% Fingerprints 61% Footwear 3% Toolmarks 1% Detection to case resolution The data used to derive calculations in this final chapter of the model draw from three different sources: both the police and CPS outcome and assessment exercises, and the court study. Step 10. Detections resulting in charge. The penultimate calculation takes into account the fact that not all detections will result in a charge; here the data from the tracking work are again applied indicating 80 per cent are charged. Step 11. Convictions. The proportion of charges resulting in a conviction is the first element of the model that derives from the CPS tracking and assessment exercise; this indicated that 88 per cent of the burglary and vehicle crime offences that were charged resulted in a conviction. Step 12. TICs resulting from case charged. The next step is then to factor in the number of offences which were taken into consideration when sentencing those found guilty. This question of course overlaps with that in column 8 of the model, which considers the number of additional detections derived from the investigation of cases with a forensic match, but possible double counting is not an issue as the calculations at the third phase of the model (which seek to establish convictions, etc.) are different from those relating to the second phase (dealing only with detections). 23 The MCC data from Lancashire indicates an uplift of ten per cent. Step 13. Cautioned. The penultimate calculation is to include those offences that were detected but where offenders were cautioned. Here data are drawn from the police assessment exercise where, for burglary and vehicle crime offences, only one per cent were dealt with by caution. Step 14. Total convictions, cautions and TICs. Finally the total number of convictions, cautions and TICs can be derived; these total 46,402 for the two conventional approaches, with an additional 9,107 derived from enhanced forensic activities. The combined total is 55,569. Comparisons between the FSS model and revised model The FSS model has provided a useful framework for marshalling information in order to assess the part played by forensic activity in solving crime. In developing the initial model, the FSS utilised what information was available and made educated guesses where information was not readily available. The study reported here has provided additional information and generated empirically-based estimates for the original elements of the model. It has also been possible to extend the coverage of the model to include an earlier stage (taking into account the proportion of scenes visited) and later stages, in particular, that from 23 In addition, TICs would be excluded at column 10, which only covers detections that result in a charge. 50

detection to case resolution. Using the new information gained has led to the construction of the revised model (Table 6.2), which for convenience of presentation has been labelled here as the MHB model. Comparing the initial FSS model and the later MHB model is not straightforward. The starting points are different (the FSS model commences with crime scenes visited, while the MHB version with recorded crime). As approximately one-third of burglary and vehicle crime scenes are currently subject to forensic examination, then the initial stages of the MHB model cut estimates made by the FSS model by one-third. Aside from this, it appears that the FSS model was generally too conservative in its estimates of the part played by forensic activity in detecting crime. The FSS model indicates that forensic activity leads to the detection of 0.9 per cent of recorded crime. The MHB model puts this at three to four times higher: at 3.3 per cent from fingerprint and SGM plus evidence alone, rising to four per cent if the contribution of LCN, footwear and toolmarks could also be taken into account. What has led to the difference in the estimates produced by the two models? The key lessons are listed below: A. Scene attendance to identification With the exception of footwear and toolmarks, the FSS model produced underestimates of the parameters at the early stages of the model. Starting with recovery rates, the FSS model understates the recovery of fingerprint evidence (FSS 5%, MHB 28%). Match rates are also higher in the MHB model, significantly so for SGM plus (30% FSS, 44% MHB) but also for fingerprints (20% FSS, 25% MHB). This is likely to reflect increases in the size of the NDNAD and fingerprint databases, and the ability to search them for matches. The FSS model suggests a higher match for footwear and toolmarks but given that the FSS model indicates a lower recovery rate for footwear (and the recovery rate for toolmarks is low anyway) the overall effect of these two types of forensic evidence does not differ greatly between the two models. Finally, the MHB model includes LCN while the FSS model does not. B. Identification to detection Looking at the conversion of forensic evidence to identification, it would appear that the FSS model is too severe in its adjustment for different types of forensic evidence being found at the same scene. The FSS model reduced identifications by one-half, whereas the MHB model suggests they should be reduced by only nine per cent. Evidence from the current study suggests that, at burglary and vehicle crime scenes, it is not very common to find more than one type of forensic evidence. This may contrast with serious crime scenes (on which experience the FSS model may be drawn) where it may be more common to find multiple evidence types. The FSS model also underplays the extent to which identifications lead to detections. It puts this figure at 60 per cent whereas MHB puts it at 81 per cent for burglary and vehicle crime. A major difference between the two models is in the estimate of additional detections arising from the investigation of detected crimes the FSS model states two additional detections whereas MHB suggest that this is near to one-half (0.52). However, although the FSS model assumes a much higher rate, it is not sufficient to counteract its lower estimates at earlier stages of the model. Unlike the FSS model, the MHB model does not attempt to estimate the crime reduction effects emanating from forensic activity. However, the MHB model does provide some additional, new, information on how detected cases are resolved in terms of charge, conviction, caution and TICs. 51

The overall impact of forensic science on crime detection Drawing on the revised (MHB) model it is possible to reach a number of inferences about the value of forensic science in crime investigation. The identification figures help to determine the relative contribution of the five different forms of contact trace material under review, and the probability that an identification will be achieved from scene attendance by SOCOs. This shows that, for a representative 100 burglary and vehicle crime scenes examined, on average: 7.0 will produce fingerprint identifications; 24 2.6 will produce SGM plus identifications; 1.4 will produce LCN DNA identifications; 0.5 will produce footwear identifications; 0.1 will produce toolmark identifications. Turning to the contribution of forensic science to crime detection, one headline message is that, in aggregate, the four issues considered in section B of the model adjustments for more than one form of CTM at the scene of a crime, the relationship between identifications and detected cases, the value of the CTM in making a case against the suspect and additional detections obtained broadly seem to counterbalance one another. Overall, for every 100 identifications, an average of 101 detections are obtained. 25 It is also possible to assess the contribution of these forensic detections on overall clear-up figures. Across England and Wales in the year to 31 March 2001, the police service achieved 176,800 detections of burglary and offences of theft of, or from, vehicles: a clear-up rate of ten per cent. The model s calculation that the two conventional approaches to forensic science (fingerprints and SGM plus) help produce 59,415 detections implies that forensic science was a contributory factor in achieving one-third of these clear-ups (34%). This is not to say that, without the contribution of forensic intelligence, the numbers of detections of burglary and vehicle crime offences would be reduced by one third. As the commentary in Chapter 5 indicates, the current research focused on three ways that forensic identifications can support police investigations, namely by: providing the first link between a suspect and a crime scene (this occurs in 45 per cent of all cases, see Chapter 5); playing an essential or some part in making the case against the suspect (in 75% of all cases); and leading to additional detections (in 17% of all cases). The model takes the second and third considerations into account, but arguably forensic intelligence is at its most crucial when it provides a first link in any police enquiry. While the evidence is that this applies to 45 per cent of all cases, this proportion rises to just over a half (51%) in relation to burglary and vehicle crime offences only. In reality, these three benefits can occur independently of each other, so that for example there may be cases where forensic material provided the first link, but played no part in making the case. Additional analysis was carried out and this showed that at least one of the benefits applied to some nine out of ten cases where identifications were made. In effect, therefore, the adjustment already made in the model to count only cases where contact trace material was of some value (which includes 90% of cases, and excludes the remaining 10%) already caters for this complication. Finally, the model can also be used to indicate how many convictions and other outcomes are typically obtained from a case where there has been a forensic identification. Overall it can be calculated that 100 identifications will yield some 79 convictions, cautions and TICs. 24 i.e. 42,840 fingerprint idents (col. 4)/ 612,000 scenes visited (col. 1). 25 i.e. 71,153 total detections (col.8)/ 70,563 total idents. (col. 4). 52

Scope for improvement By drawing on the lessons of the two initiatives, the MHB model usefully extends the original FSS model both in terms of its coverage (by incorporating additional stages) and in the estimates provided. However, as further data become available, the MHB model should itself be improved and refined. The MHB estimates are based on only two force areas (Greater Manchester and Lancashire) and information from other forces would help provide a more accurate national picture. Notwithstanding future developments, the model does provide a means of considering various scenarios for improving the effects of forensic activity in detecting crime. One possible way forward is that SOCOs should visit a higher proportion of crime scenes (at the time only 34 per cent were visited in the Pathfinder forces). In some police areas, it is likely that attendance rates can be increased before diminishing returns set in. But whether attending a higher proportion of scenes yields higher forensic yields is unclear. There is no clear statistical relationship between scene attendance rates and yield rates within crime types by force (Bradbury and Feist, 2005). By the same token, the current relationship between these two variables does not provide much support for the argument that overly selective attendance is limiting retrieval rates. Effective targeting of scenes may be being undertaken in some forces and in such cases diminishing returns would probably set in. Could more CTM be recovered from crime scenes? Perhaps, but it seems unlikely that a significant amount of fingerprint or conventional DNA (SGM plus) material is being missed at scenes. The way forward here may be to increase attention on enhanced forensic activity LCN, footwear and toolmarks gathered at crime scenes. There are reasons to believe that matching rates will rise over time as the NDNAD expands, and benefits from an electronic national fingerprint system increase. In this context it is interesting to note that the FSS put SGM plus matches at 30 per cent (presumably based on empirical data available several years ago) whereas this rate had increased to 44 per cent by the time data for the MHB model were obtained. Applying these three alternative scenarios to the MHB model allows their impact to be estimated. For instance the effect of doubling any one of these single indices can be estimated in terms of forensic outcomes. Changes closer to the top of the process would generally be expected to have a greater impact on forensic detections and convictions than changes further down the process. A doubling in crimes scenes attended, recovery rates or match rates would all other things being equal double the proportion of detections that could be attributed to forensic science. There are however important caveats to this suggestion since a doubling in scene attendance would almost certainly not generate twice as the amount of forensic material retrieved (due to the effect of diminishing returns). Increasing detections from forensic evidence could be improved but this may require a different approach, placing greater emphasis on the intelligence forensic evidence can provide in identifying patterns and linkages rather than merely resolving individual crimes. Again the benefits can be fed into the MHB model. In this case, however, the benefits are very much more modest because the uplift occurs at a much later point in the sequence. Doubling the number of additional detections derived from forensic science identifications will only increase the percentage of detections by one-third, to 4.4 per cent from fingerprint and SGM plus evidence alone, and 5.3 per cent if the contribution of LCN, footwear and toolmarks are also taken into account. 53

7. Impact and cost-effectiveness This final chapter of the report briefly summarises the impact of the work undertaken, and its cost effectiveness. Impact The increased forensic activity during the course of the two initiatives can be separated into two components: conventional forensic activities (scene examinations and the collection of fingerprints and SGM plus DNA) and enhanced activities (the collection of LCN DNA, footwear, toolmarks and work on linking crimes). Conventional activities Crime scene examinations increased by five per cent in the Pathfinder divisions (an increase partly attributable to the activities of the additional FSS FEs) compared to the control divisions. No new technologies or systems relating to fingerprints were piloted under Pathfinder, and fingerprints recovered from crime scenes fell slightly. But despite this, fingerprint identifications increased by six per cent in the Pathfinder divisions compared to the control areas. The impact of the DNA Expansion Programme affected all divisions and SGM plus DNA recovered from crime scenes increased dramatically, and substantially more in the control areas. This contributed to the Pathfinder divisions achieving 310 more matches from SGM plus than in the previous year, an increase of 57 per cent. Enhanced forensic activities The pilot of LCN in the Pathfinder divisions indicated that this super-sensitive DNA technique could be more widely used in respect of volume crimes, particularly vehicle crime offences. LCN swabs were taken from 19 per cent of crime scenes visited overall. At scenes visited by FEs, the swab rate rose to 51 per cent, whereas at scenes visited by SOCOs (with or without FEs) it fell to 12 per cent. More swabs were taken at vehicle crime offences than at burglaries. The items that yielded the highest overall number of useable samples were ignition boxes, followed by screwdrivers left at vehicle crime and burglary crime scenes. 15 per cent of swabs taken provided full or partial profiles of a standard that could be searched on the NDNAD. 63 per cent of LCN profiles loaded or speculatively searched on the Database led to matches with suspects. There were 308 matches, approximately the same number as the increase in SGM plus attributable to the DNA Expansion Programme. Footwear The experience was mixed. The data, however, suggests that the project achieved some success in combating widespread scepticism about the forensic value of this approach. Footwear marks recovered from crime scenes rose by 18 per cent in both the Pathfinder divisions and control areas. However, the increase in the GMP Pathfinder divisions, which had hitherto made very little systematic use footwear, was very much higher than in the Lancashire Pathfinder divisions. There was a similar overall improvement in footwear identifications; these increased by slightly more in the control areas than in the Pathfinder divisions, however. In the GMP Pathfinder divisions, where footwear collection was strongly promoted and 54

Toolmarks equipment was provided, the increase in identifications was much higher than in Lancashire. There were some improvements in the recovery of samples, but little payback. it can be estimated that marks were recovered from 1.6 per cent of scenes visited. However, no identifications were achieved through the use of the FSS s TDS system. Identifying serial offenders and linked crimes It took some time for the Pathfinder project to produce FLINTS packages, but eventually some 78 packages were produced. Police officers indicated that some 60 per cent of packages were of some use to them. Work on tracking case outcomes in GMP suggested that just over a half resulted in either no action or negative lines of enquiry. Most recognise the potential value of identifying linked crimes and serial offenders, but emphasise that it is essential to produce packages speedily if they are to realise this potential. Cost-effectiveness Overall the two initiatives under review provided a total of 1,242,835 for additional FSSs in the Pathfinder divisions ( 1,157,079 from Pathfinder and an estimated 85,756 from the DNA Expansion Programme). Placed in context, the total scientific support expenditure of the two forces in 2000/01 was 15.6 million, and the extrapolated figure for the Pathfinder divisions in the two forces was 6,204,799. It can be estimated that the two initiatives therefore provided an uplift of some 20 per cent in the expenditure on scientific support services in the target divisions. Table 7.1 presents the breakdown of costs and relates these costs to the additional extra identifications achieved in respect of each of the interventions in the Pathfinder divisions, compared to the non-pathfinder control areas. The table also shows the costs and payback of the DNA Expansion funding (where the estimate of the number of additional matches is derived from comparison with the preceding year). It also indicates the impact on fingerprints, which were not specifically targeted under Pathfinder. The table shows that, aside from the spin-off benefits accrued in the shape of another 99 fingerprint identifications (see Fingerprints in Chapter 4), the best payback was in relation to SGM plus. Here each additional match can be estimated to have cost some 277, LCN matches some 3,255 and each FLINT package some 827. In respect of footwear and toolmarks, there was no discernable net gain. While these figures are useful in assessing the relative benefits of the different strands of the overall programme, it is difficult to place them in context. The unit cost that police forces would have to pay for LCN products in relation to volume crime has never been published. Moreover, there has not been any equivalent assessment of the cost-effectiveness of other aspects of police investigative work like interrogation, house-to-house searches, etc. 55

Table 7.1: Cost-effectiveness of the projects in achieving identifications: covering expenditure on Pathfinder and the DNA Expansion Programme Pathfinder Additional idents Outcome/ LCN 1,002,648 308 3,255 per hit Footwear 41,925-3 No gain per hit Toolmarks 48,028-3 No gain per hit Linking crimes and offenders 64,479 78 827 per package Sub total 1,157,079 DNA Expansion SGM plus 85,756 310 277 per hit Spin-offs Fingerprints 0 99 Some guidance can however be provided by looking to the approximate costs of the other or normal forensic identifications achieved in the Pathfinder divisions that fell outside the Pathfinder project parameters. During the intervention period, a total of 2,226 fingerprint and SGM plus matches were achieved in the Pathfinder divisions, which were not attributed to the impact of either of the projects being evaluated. By crudely dividing these into the extrapolated expenditure of these divisions in 2000/01 (of 6.2 million see above) it can be calculated that each of these identifications cost some 2,787. It is important to remember that this figure is not an actual investigative cost, but it is a useful project investment per outcome metric for comparative purposes. 56

Glossary of terms used in the report. ACPO AFR CID CJJPU CJ sampling CMU Comms CPS CRPU CSE discrimination power DIU DNA DNA profile ESLA FIB FLINTS FPB FPU FSS GMP GMPIX Hit Identification ISOMARK LCD LCN Match MO NAFIS OIC OPU PIs RDSD sensitivity (DNA) SGM plus SICAR SOCO SSM SSU TDS VCU Association of Chief Police Officers Automated Fingerprint Recognition Criminal Investigation Department Criminal Justice Joint Planning Unit Criminal Justice Sampling samples taken from offenders in custody for entry onto the NDNAD Crime Management Unit Communications section of police force Crown Prosecution Service Crime Reduction Programme Unit Crime Scene Examiner the ability to discriminate between the profiles of different individuals Divisional Intelligence Unit Deoxyribonucleic Acid: a chemical found in virtually every cell in the body which carries genetic information from one generation to the next The separation and characterisation of certain components of DNA to discriminate between individuals Electro-Static Lifting Apparatus Force Intelligence Bureau Forensic Led Intelligence System Fingerprint Bureau File Preparation Unit Forensic Science Service Greater Manchester Police Greater Manchester Police information systems The identification of an offender from a scene sample taken against the NDNAD The matching of a scene sample to an offender Toolmark casting equipment Lord Chancellors Department Low Copy Number DNA An identified link between a scene sample and an offender or between two scene samples modus operandi National Automated Fingerprint Identification System officer in the case Operational Policing Unit Performance Indicators Research and Development Statistics Directorate the ability to produce profiles from small amounts of material standard DNA profile System for the identification, comparison and matching of shoemarks taken from scenes. Scenes of Crime Officer Scientific Support Manager Scientific Support Unit Toolmark Database System Volume Crime Unit 57

References Bradbury, S. and Feist, A. (2005) The use of forensic science in volume crime investigations: a review of the research literature. Online research report OLR 43/05. London: Home Office. Home Office (1995) National NDNAD. Home Office circular 16/95. Her Majesty s Inspectorate of Constabulary (HMIC) (2000) Under the microscope. HMIC Thematic Inspection report on Scientific and Technical Support. London: Home Office. Her Majesty s Inspectorate of Constabulary (HMIC) (2002) Under the microscope refocused: a revisit to the investigative use of DNA and fingerprints. London: Home Office. Karchmer, C.L. and Eck, J. (1998), Proactive investigations evaluation in Hoover, L.T. (ed.), Police Program Evaluation. Washington DC: Police Executive Research Forum. Legg, D. and Powell, J. (2000) Measuring Inputs: Guidance for Evaluators Crime Reduction Guidance Note 3. London: Home Office Rix, B. (2004) The contribution of shoemark data to police intelligence, crime detection and prosecution. Research Findings 236. London: Home Office. Simmons, J. Legg, C. and Hosking, R. (2003) National Crime Recording Standard (NCRS): an analysis of the impact on recorded crime London: Home Office. 58

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Produced by the Research Development and Statistics Directorate, Home Office This document is available only in Adobe Portable Document Format (PDF) through the RDS website http://www.homeoffice.gov.uk/rds Email: public.enquiries@homeoffice.gsi.gov.uk ISBN 1 84473 763 2 Crown copyright 2005