Workplaces in Recession & Recovery Bill Roche Professor of Industrial Relations & Human Resources School of Business University College Dublin Presentation to NERI/Queen s University Belfast, Labour Market Conference, May 1 st 2015
Focus 1. Employers 2. Trade Unions 3. Employees work experiences 4. Conclusions
1. Employers Private Sector Retrenchment & improvisation No evident shift in the centre of gravity of work and employment practices or models Public Services Pay-bill focused reform programme Return to SMI HR reforms Greater determination evident No shift in the centre of gravity of work and employment practices
Cuts in Pay Bills and Their Components in Private Sector Enterprises Period % % % % Firms Cutting Cuts in Cuts in Average Cuts in Average Pay Bill Employment Hours Hourly Earnings 2008-2009 67 52 39 36 2009-2010 54 43 22 27 2010-2011 41 29 18 18 Notes: Periods shown extend from 3 rd quarters to 3 rd quarters of each year. Data cover firms reducing pay bills by more than 2%. Sources: Walsh, K. Wage Bill Change in Ireland During Recession How Have Employers Reacted to the Downturn, Journal of the Statistical and Social Inquiry Society of Ireland, 41: 39-70. Data for 2010-2011 provided by Kieran Walsh.
2. Trade Unions Accelerated decline in union density Concession bargaining evident Little evidence of integrative or ultra concession bargaining Sectorally-confined pay rounds since 2011 & generalized pay round imminent
The Trend in Trade Union Density in the Private Sector Before and During the Recession 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Source: Based on CSO, Quarterly National Household Survey micro-data (Walsh 2014) 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
The Trend in Trade Union Density in the Public Service Before and During the Recession 80% 75% 70% 65% 60% 55% 50% 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 The public service data comprise public administration, defence, compulsory social security, education and human health activities. Source: Based on CSO, Quarterly National Household Survey micro-data (Walsh 2014)
3. Employees Work Experience Increased job insecurity & rise in work pressure/intensity Little evidence of recession-induced changes in work regimes time-series (2004 and 2010 waves of EVS Survey) cross-section (2010 Wave of EVS Survey) Current priorities: pay rises & pay restoration
100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 62 20 2003 2009 2003 2009 2003 2009 2003 2009 Job requires that I work very hard 63 26 Work Pressure 2003 and 2009 41 10 14 Great deal of pressure 44 32 6 Not enough time to do everything 34 38 Agree 13 9 13 Often have to work extra time Strongly Agree 35 Source: Russell, H. and McGinnity, F. Under Pressure: The Impact of Recession on Employees in Ireland, British Journal of Industrial Relations, 52(2): 294, 2014. 100 Work Intensity 2004 and 2010 % 75 50 57 50 Agree Strongly Agree 25 29 30 32 22 8 9 0 2004 2010 2004 2010 Job requires that I work Never enough time to get very hard everything done Source: European Social Survey, Ireland data files for 2004 and 2010 waves.
Mean Levels of Work Control Reported by Employees in 2004 and 2010 Work control scale The work control measure is a composite of answers to 3 questions: how much the management at your work allows you to : 1. Decide how your own daily work is organized 2. Choose or change your pace of work 3. Influence policy decisions about the activities of the organization Answers to each question on a 10-point scale ranging from 0 = I have no influence to 10 = I have complete control. Source: Data from the Ireland 2004 and 2010 waves of the European Social Survey
Effects of Recessionary Financial Difficulty and Changes in Employment on Levels of Job Control (OLS Regression Results) Dependent Variable Independent Variables Financial Difficulty Employment Changes Financial Pressures & Employment Changes Beta Beta Beta Work control 0.03-0.01 0.02 Notes: N = 915 employees. Two tailed t tests for significance of independent variables. R 2 Change for model adding financial difficulty and employment changes to model containing control variables is not significant at p < 0.5. Controls included for industry sector, domain (private or public), occupational groups, size of employing organization, gender, whether employed on a temporary or permanent contract, union membership and occupancy of job requiring supervision of work of others. Source: Ireland datafile from, 2010 wave of European Social Survey, archived at http://www.europeansocialsurvey.org/
4. Conclusions Economic perturbation, retrenchment, improvisation insecurity and increased work pressure Declining density, concession bargaining but no radical onslaught on union recognition or collective bargaining No major change in workplace regimes as experienced by employees
Trend in Irish Trade Union Density from Mid 1990s 45.5% 27% 1996 1997 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Source: Central Statistics Office (CSO) Labour Force Survey/Quarterly National Household Survey estimates. Data relate to second quarter for each year