OIL & GAS TALENT OUTLOOK Mercer s Energy Vertical Workforce Planning in Oil & Gas 29 October 2013 Kuala Lumpur Convention Centre Jay Doherty Partner and co-founder Mercer Workforce Sciences Institute
Oil and Gas companies compete in global labour markets and must manage their own Internal Labour Market unlike energy markets, labour markets are some of the least efficient markets we have today Labour Market Internal Labour Market (ILM) OVERALL LABOR MARKET POOL OF POTENTIAL O&G WORKERS LABOR DEMAND EMPLOYEES TURNOVER NEW ENTRANTS Entering from different profession University Other industries Other locations/ countries QUALIFIED NOT QUALIFIED OFFER ACCEPTANCE BRAND EMPLOYMENT PROPOSITION LOCATION LOSSES Joining other industries Entering different profession Leaving the country EXITS Leaving profession or industry Leaving area Exiting workforce Retirement LATERAL TRANSFERS that s why many are building workforce planning 1
Today s let s look at Workforce Planning in Oil & Gas The evolution of Workforce Planning Talent Outlook and Challenges for Oil & Gas companies What O&G companies are doing Tackling the hardest part of workforce planning Resources to help 2
Question for the group Do not How many of you have a Workforce Planning Process in place? How many have you been doing Workforce Planning for over 5 years? 3
Workforce Planning Defined Workforce Planning locates the gap between talent supply and demand, and helps prioritize the actions to deliver the needed workforce balancing the quantity, quality, cost, and location of critical talent. Crucial process to help Business and HR leaders prioritize Science + Art One of the least defined HR disciplines Often ranked in the top three practices organizations need to develop Analytics + Process 4
Is Workforce Planning right for every organization? NO but if your organization is dependant on workers whose skills and capabilities take many years to develop, then workforce planning should be a core business process That s why nearly all Oil & Gas companies have a form of Workforce Planning today 5
More than half of companies surveyed have some type of initiative underway to implement a more robust planning process What strategies are you employing to assess talent needs and increase the supply of skilled workers? Implementing a more robust talent planning process (e.g. by job function, age group, location, etc.) Providing support / industry exposure to students in relevant fields (e.g. scholarships, internships, practical training, etc.) Implementing a more robust talent planning process Providing support / industry exposure to students in relevant fields 51% 59% Partnering with universities Partnering with universities 43% Developing programs to raise skill level of candidates in specific in specific geographies geographies Online tools and social media Online tools and social media 37% 35% Developing higher education programs in critical skill areas (e.g. curriculum development, coop, lectures, donations, etc.) Developing higher education programs in critical skill areas Implementing programs at lower education levels Implementing programs at lower education levels 11% 27% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% yet only 28% are satisfied with what their process delivers Source: Mercer s 2013 Oil & Gas Talent Outlook and Workforce Practices Survey 6
Workforce Planning Evolution 1960/70s Manpower Planning 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s The Debate: Who in management truly understands the models coming from these mainframe generated models? Drivers and process A mechanical process for budgeting and headcount control. Statistical techniques for forecasting. Priorities largely guesswork and internal look only at workforce data. Linked to succession planning. Early adopters Most large corporations and national governments/ military and a few large Integrated Oil companies 7
Workforce Planning Evolution 1960s 1970s 1980s Abandonment 1990s 2000s 2010s The Debate: Is a centralized Manpower Planning process of any value when organizations are cutting layers, increasing spans and devolving authority? Drivers and process Largely disappeared during period of reengineering and downsizing in Oil & Gas Early adopters No sectors adopting, though maintained when required by law (e.g., Governments, Utilities) 8
Workforce Planning Evolution 1970s 1980s 1990s Rediscovery and Reinvention 2000s 2010s The Debate: Qualitative vs Quantitative approach? Drivers and process A few leading companies began to rebuild their capability driven by the war for talent or cost concerns. Largely spreadsheet based tools or blank HR analytics templates. Battle between quants and qualitative approaches. Early adopters Other sectors were ahead of Oil & Gas Tech, Healthcare, Mfg, Utilities, and Public sector 9
Workforce Planning Evolution 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s Rapid expansion 2010s The Debate: Annual vs. ongoing process? Drivers and process Driven first by aging concerns in developed economies, then growth constraints, and finally by recession. Global labour markets (and information) come into play beyond Mfg and Tech. Moving from quantifying the gap to prioritizing solutions. Early adopters Oil & Gas begins to take note and rebuild, as do Higher ed., Aerospace, Transport/Logistics, Law enforcement, E&C, and Development authorities 10
Workforce Planning Evolution 2010s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s Increasing sophistication Big Data The Debate: To what extent should Workforce Planning be integrated with other business and talent processes? Drivers and process Broader issues such as diversity, localization, and talent mobility are being asked not simply how to fill the gap. Becoming a recognized process for most companies reliant on experienced/ skilled workers. Workforce Planning functions are created. Technology beginning to catch up with SWP needs. 11
OIL & GAS TALENT OUTLOOK Mercer s Energy Vertical Industry Challenges Survey Responses November 2013
118 respondents from 106 companies to the O&G Talent Outlook and Workforce Practices Survey 2013 Distribution of Survey Responses by Business Segment Other 7% Distribution of Survey Responses by Headquarters Location Other 26% Oil Services 23% Upstream 33% Other Asia 14% Canada 29% China 10% Integrated 16% Downstream 14% Midstream 7% Europe 13% United States 24% Source: Mercer s 2013 Oil & Gas Talent Outlook and Workforce Practices Survey. Analyses are based on 104 survey respondents from 93 organizations, representing a cross-section of company types across the value chain 13
O&G Human Capital Challenges Oil & gas companies are facing a talent shortage across all critical occupational groups While the intensity of concern has eased from six years ago, the experience gap is more profound driven by new and more complex techniques, aging talent in certain regions and occupations, and unconventional plays requiring more labour Balance has shifted to buying over building talent to fill open positions more quickly The vast majority of respondents anticipate their companies will realize meaningful returns if they can solve their talent challenges in the form of increased productivity, decreased attrition, increased production, and decreased operating costs 14
Talent gaps are expected for both new and experienced workers across most critical jobs, with engineers as the predominant job of concern Industry perception of pending talent gaps across occupational groups Petroleum Engineers 43% Plant / Operations Engineers Plant / Operations Technicians Plant / Operations Managers Geoscientists Upstream Project Managers Upstream Technicians Finance Managers Sales & Traders Shipping / Maritime Leaders 9% 18% 24% 24% 2% 28% 30% 1% 35% 34% 13% 8% 10% -0.1 6E-16 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 1% 1% 26% 15% 3% 29% 14% Experienced Both New 1 The specific distinction between new and experienced employees is unique to each company surveyed. One guide is to view new positions reflect entry level positions that can be filled with recent graduates or individuals with minimal oil and gas industry experience (typically less than 5 years); experienced positions reflect positions that require extensive prior experience in the oil and gas industry (typically 7-15 years) in order to function at an average level of productivity in the job. Source: Mercer s 2013 Oil & Gas Talent Outlook and Workforce Practices Survey. % of companies surveyed that anticipate a 15 talent gap in the specified occupational group and experience level1 in the next 5 years 13% 16% 33% 31% 40% 2% 23% 7% 1% 45% 4% 57% 52% 50% 1% 61% 67%
Respondents see large skills gaps in technical skills and knowledge among their current workforce Technical skills / knowledge Supervisory / management skills Skills gaps in existing workforce % of respondents facing gap in skill set identified 65% 74% Leadership skills Project management skills Communication skills 48% 46% 59% What are the most significant skills gaps you face in your workforce today? Risk management / QA skills Teamwork skills 20% 20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Source: Mercer s 2013 Oil & Gas Talent Outlook and Workforce Practices Survey. 16
OIL & GAS TALENT OUTLOOK Mercer s Energy Vertical KEY TALENT GAPS Oil & Gas Labour Market Analysis November 2013
Future state of O&G workforce Overall, across the key O&G talent families, FSU and Sub-Saharan Africa are projected to have the greatest 2017 talent deficits FSU Europe US/ Canada M.E./ N. Africa Sub- Saharan Africa Asia Australia 48 countries are included in this global talent study, representing 95% of oil & gas production and 87% of refining capacity Latin America Substantial Shortage Shortage -- Neutral/Balance Surplus Substantial Surplus From Mercer s External Labour Market Analysis of Oil and Gas Industry, 2013 analysis of future labour supply and demand. 18
Forecasted talent supply vs. demand surpluses and shortages There is projected to be a shortage in supply of critical jobs such as Geoscientists and Petroleum Engineers Overall Petroleum Engineers Geoscientists Other Engineers Upstream Managers Upstream Technicians Downstream Managers Downstream Technicians Accountants and Financial Profs. Asia Australia Europe FSU Latin America -- M.E. / N. Africa Sub-Saharan Africa US/Canada Global For experienced talent, Asia and Latin America suffer a larger gap because their strong supply growth comes from a relatively large amount of new graduates. Substantial Shortage Shortage -- Neutral/Balance Surplus Substantial Surplus Shown are partial findings from Mercer s External Labour Market Analysis of Oil and Gas Industry, 2013 analysis of future labour supply and demand for eight occupational groups across 48 countries 19
PETRONAS So what are companies doing? Word cloud of oil and gas companies based on workforce size
The trend over recent years has been toward greater external sourcing Strategies for filling open, experienced positions % of open positions filled internally and externally across respondent companies 100% % of open positions filled 56% Buy 68% Build promote, train, or transfer existing employees Buy hire workers from outside your organization 44% Build 32% 0% 2006 2013 Source of 2006 data: Mercer Oil & Gas Talent Outlook and Strategies Industry Survey, June-July 2006 vs. June-July 2013 21
Competition for talent within the industry is becoming more intense as companies increase their reliance on the predominant source for filling open positions employees of other oil & gas companies 60% % of external hires 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% Current and planned sourcing strategies % of current outside hires from source, anticipated change in reliance 1 Reliance on source: Expected to increase Expected to remain unchanged Expected to decrease 0% Current employees from other oil and gas companies Experienced hires Contractors / from outside oil temporary and gas industry workers / outsource function Colleges / universities Sources of candidates 2 Retirees from other oil and gas companies Retirees from your organization 1 Directional indication of change in reliance reflects planned strategy indicated by majority of respondents to the item 2 50% of the respondents anticipate an increase while 47% foresee no change in their reliance on this source for external hires Source: Mercer s 2013 Oil & Gas Talent Outlook and Workforce Practices Survey. 22
The volume and breadth of initiatives underway may indicate that some companies are spreading themselves too thin to have a meaningful impact Challenges being addressed by current or planned initiatives 1 50 40 30 20 10 0 Rated as significant challenges With initiatives underway 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Percent with initiatives underway 1 Initiatives reflected by dedicated personnel or budget Source: Mercer s 2013 Oil & Gas Talent Outlook and Workforce Practices Survey. Need to prioritize 23
OIL & GAS TALENT OUTLOOK Mercer s Energy Vertical Tackling the hardest part of workforce planning Let s look at what for many is the most difficult part of workforce planning drawing a direct link between the workforce gaps and the proposed solutions that will fill them
For the solutions Analyze your Internal Labour Market Hires Exits Level 8 11 168 38 17 16 7 72 517 81 49 6 125 640 81 186 Lateral moves 123 Career level 5 190 830 129 341 184 134 4 312 963 Promotions 85 234 227 3 116 383 45 86 Internal labour Market (ILM) analysis starts by mapping the flows that determine what your workforce is and what it is becoming 25
The real power of ILM analysis comes from measuring, modeling and interpreting the drivers of these talent flows and associated rewards Know who you are selecting Level 8 Hires 11 168 7 72 517 16 38 Know what drives performance 81 Exits 17 49 6 125 640 81 186 Lateral moves 123 Career level 5 190 4 312 963 3 116 Know what you are rewarding Promotions 830 383 129 134 85 45 341 Know what 234 retains employees 184 227 86 26
Attrition rates highest in services and drilling Employee turnover by industry sector Services & Drilling has the highest turnover across industry sectors 30% 25% Also a young demographic 27% Average overall turnover 13% Total Turnover % 20% 15% 10% 12% 12% 14% 10% 10% 10% 5% 0% N=90 N=25 N=43 N=16 N=15 N=16 N=17 E&P Total E&P: Less than 10k BOE E&P: 10k-100k BOE E&P: 100k BOE and over Services & Drilling Utilities Pipeline & Midstream Source: MTCS Canada Policy Report 2012 27
Petrotech labour market in Canada 2011 to 2012 LEVEL HIRES PETROTECHS TURNOVER G+ F E D C B A 9% 9% 14% 18% 17% 22% 50% 8% 9% 11% 21% 37% 48% PROMOTIONS 15% 13% 15% 15% 19% 15% 10% Based on Mercer s MTCS Canada Energy Survey, 2012 and 2011 28
Petrotechs by age group in Canada 26% of the Petrotechs are under age 30 and 12% are over 55 ENGINEERS 49 = Median Age GEOLOGISTS 51 47 GEOPHYSICISTS 54 39 54 55 51 31 28 54 51 29 26 33 38 <31 55+ 25 30 27 39 31 Based on Mercer s MTCS Canada Energy Survey, 2012 and 2011 29
Petrotechs by tenure in Canada 42% of the Petrotechs have been with their current employer for less than 3 years; 11% have been there for 15+ years ENGINEERS 7 8 = Median Tenure / Company Service GEOLOGISTS 6 8 2 4 4 5 1 <=3 15+ 3 4 6 4 GEOPHYSICISTS 8 10 6 4 3 6 1 1 Based on Mercer s MTCS Canada Energy Survey, 2012 and 2011 30
Stay or Go? What things about Canada s oil and gas workers in 2011 were associated with whether (or not) they got promoted in 2012 and stayed (or left)? Promoted Not Promoted Level A, B, or C Received a greater % of compensation in base salary Had more tenure than others in the same level Received $15,000 more in total direct compensation Received a bonus of $20,000+ Was a top performer Was 5 years older Was older than others in the same level Receive other compensation Was promoted or transferred-in last year Level E or F Had 7 (vs. 2) years of tenure Works in Calgary Stayed Based on Mercer s ILM Analysis of MTCS Canada Energy Surveys, 2012 and 2011 Left 31
Using ILM Analysis, Saudi Aramco was able to measure and assess the workforce impact of education and overseas assignments Promotion Voluntary Turnover Normal Retirement Performance Rating Pay Level Pay Growth Masters vs. Bachelors 11% No Influence No Influence 3% 5% No Influence Doctorate vs. Bachelors 55% No Influence -83% No Influence 10% No Influence Ever Did Overseas Assignment? 49% 41% Not Applicable 6% -4%.01% As published with Saudi Aramco s permission in the World Economic Forum and Mercer s January 2012 Talent Mobility research report http://www.mercer.com/globaltalent 32
OIL & GAS TALENT OUTLOOK Mercer s Energy Vertical Workforce Planning process is a solution to a problem not just at the individual organization level but for industries and economies
Working Planning at a country level Malaysia is #22 out of 122 economies in the world (and #3 in Asia) in how well we leverage our human capital and establish a workforce that is prepared for the demands of competitive economies #39 Health and Wellness #18 Workforce and Employment #34 Education Four critical areas for measuring the human capital #22 Enabling Environment Three core determinants of human capital development (Education, Health and wellness and Workforce and employment). Plus indicators on the Enabling Environment that look at how efficiently the country deploys its human capital. 51 variables; 23 from the Forum s Executive Opinion Survey; the rest a combination of data from international organizations and other sources. Copy available at www.mercer.com/hcindex 34
OIL & GAS TALENT OUTLOOK Mercer s Energy Vertical Workforce Planning Summary and helpful resources
The workforce plan should be concise and include 1. Workforce planning goals 2. Key workforce challenges 3. Current workforce and future outlook 4. Gaps in critical and non-critical jobs 5. Solutions at company, business unit, region, or job family level 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017-1 -2-2 -2-3 -3-4 -4-2 -2-3 -3-3 -3-3 -3-5 -5-5 -5-5 -5-5 -5-2 -4-3 -4-4 -3-3 -2-3 -5-6 -7-7 -8-8 -9-13 -19-29 -38-48 -57-65 -74 0-2 -1-1 0 1 2 3-3 -6-7 -7-7 -7-8 -8 0-4 -4-4 -4-4 -4-4 -32-37 -46-56 -65-72 -79-86 20 16 16 15 14 14 14 13 0-2 -1-1 0 1 2 3 0-2 -5-8 -10-13 -16-18 -2-3 -4-5 -7-8 -9-10 -5-8 -9-11 -13-14 -15-17 -3-9 -9-8 -9-8 -7-6 0-5 -1 2 5 8 11 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Shortfall Surplus 6. Accountability and timing 7. Success measures for tracking workforce interventions 36
Today workforce planning remains a technology enabled process and not a tool 37
Some learnings from our experience Forecast where current practices are leading your workforce and compare to business projections Workforce planning should show clear priorities use Big Data to analyse your Internal Labour Market Keep workforce plans concise and understandable by business partners Measure and understand the sources of human capital value for upstream focus on workforce outcomes, for downstream consider linking to business outcomes Stop copying others, look inside for the keys to success and leverage the data you ve been collecting to do this you will need new skills not typically found in Human Resources you can gradually build workforce planning capabilities over years deriving value at each step and decide as you implement the sophistication of the process and workforce planning tools your organization requires 38
THANK YOU! Terima kasih For further reading and help consider To receive a copy of the 2013 Oil & Gas Talent Outlook and Workforce Practices Survey: https://surveys.qualtrics.com/se/?sid=sv_1ljbjb52kmlf7jr Strategic Management of Human Capital in the Energy Sector a copy is on the PIHCS Conference USB Stick Play to Your Strengths, Managing your internal labor market for lasting competitive advantage, Nalbantian, Guzzo, Kieffer, and Doherty, McGraw-Hill Mercer s analytics and workforce planning tools: www.mercer.com/workforceplanning Flash movie of Internal Labor Market Analysis: http://mercer.zooropa.com/ilm/index.html You may be interested in building your own ILM Map our free tool is at: www.mercer.com/ilmtool 39
About the presenter Jay Doherty is co-leader of Mercer s Workforce Sciences Institute. He has over twenty-five years of management consulting experience helping oil and gas companies in North America, Asia, Middle East, and Europe. Jay s work includes labour market analysis, workforce planning, retention strategies, organization design, and linking people management practices to bottom-line results. He currently is managing Mercer s energy industry workforce research efforts globally. Jay has authored articles and is cited in the media on organization and workforce issues and is co-author of Play to Your Strengths, and contributing author to Tangible Strategies for Intangible Assets, and Offshoring Opportunities. Jay received an MBA from Darden at the University of Virginia. jay.doherty@mercer.com www.mercer.com/workforce-sciences-institute
Understanding the global oil & gas labour markets Mercer s information and research to help oil and gas companies Workforce practices Prevalence and good practices on: Workforce Planning Sourcing/Selection Contractors / Contingent staffing Intl. programs Rewards / Employment proposition Global O&G employment costs Compensation and benefits data globally Training and development Performance management Knowledge management Retention Schedules / work-life O&G Industry Internal Labour Market Analysis Insights drawn from statistically modeling millions of employee records globally to understand labour flows, drivers of retention, advancement, performance, and their workforce planning implications Engagement analysis Oil and gas workers preferences ELM (External Labour Market) analysis and forecast Demand: job family drivers and Hot jobs Supply: country/region and 5-year forecast New entrants (PE and Geosciences) Quality and staffing benchmarking Mobility 41
The O&G Survey is still open! For those who did not participate but are interested in the detailed results Go to: https://surveys.qualtrics.com/se/?sid=sv_1ljbjb52kmlf7jr 42
Mercer seeks to be the provider of choice to the global oil & gas industry due to its unique combination of data, research-based insights, tools, and expertise which optimize workforce investments