Impacts and Adaptations The Case of the 2001-2002 Drought

Impacts and Adaptations The Case of the 2001- Drought V. Wittrock 1 and E. Wheaton 2 1 Saskatchewan Research Council 2 Saskatchewan Research Council and University of Saskatchewan Presentation at the Water Management Workshop in Alberta s Special Area #2 February 26, 2007 Hanna, Alberta SRC Publication No. 11899-01D07 smart science solutions

Outline Where this information is coming from Climatology of the Drought Impacts of the Drought Adaptation Strategies

First National Drought Assessment for Canada Near record to record drought over southern Canada and North America + Climatological aspects onset, persistence, extent, atmospheric circulation patterns Biological and physical impacts, socioeconomic impacts, adaptation options, recommendations Lead Authors: Wheaton, Kulshreshtha, Wittrock, Bonsal, Chipanshi, Grant, Koshida Steering Committee led by AAFC; thorough review process http://www.agr.gc.ca/pfra/drought/info/11602-46e03.pdf

Canadian Agricultural Adaptations to 21 st Century Droughts: Preparing for Climate Change? Or Agricultural Drought Adaptations (ADA) Home Project Summary Project Team Advisory Group Project Components Project Benefits About the 2001- Droughts 2001- Drought Impacts Project Deliverables (Presentations and Publications) Related Links Funding: Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Program, Government of Canada; and In-Kind Contributions Research team and funding: Saskatchewan Research Council; Environment Canada; University of Lethbridge Olds College Advisory Committee guidance http://www.src.sk.ca/html/research_technology/environment/climatology/agricultural_adaptations/index.cfm

Institutional Adaptation to Climate Change Canada-Chile Case Study on Adaptation http://www.parc.ca/mcri/index.php

(PFRA 2001 website)

Drought persistence Spring Summer

Drought Severity & Trends (Annual Palmer Drought Severity Index) Record summer droughts occurred in British Columbia, Alberta & Saskatchewan (47-106 year record) for 2001- Record agricultural drought year (September to August) occurred in British Columbia and Alberta for 2001- (56-105 year record) Large decadal variations with rapid switches from dry to wet

Drought Spatial Patterns Summer (June, July, August) PDSI 1931 1931 1961 2001 1931 1961 1988 1931 1931-3 isoline 1931 1961 1988 2001 Extent of Data 1931 2001 and droughts appear to be the most extensive of this set of major droughts Preferred area for droughts in Canada is the southern prairie provinces Northward extension of these recent droughts appears unusual 2001- was a major multi-year drought, unlike 1961, for example

Surface Water Impacts Dugouts are often essential adaptations to water scarcity on Prairie farms, esp. for livestock and household use Dugouts were drying out by the fall of 2000, and this trend became worse in 2001and continued in the Hanna area into

120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Surface Water Impacts Surface Water Impacts Red Deer River at Drumheller (1960-2005) (05CE001) R 2 = 0.00 Mean Annual Stream Flow (m3/s) 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2004 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 South Saskatchewan River at Medicine Hat (1970-2005; 05AJ001) R 2 = 0.01 Alberta and Saskatchewan streams had well below average (or no) flows in 2000- Red Deer River at Drumheller low flows 2000 to SSR at Medicine at low flows 2000 and 2001 extreme precipitation event June Mean Annual Stream Flow (m3/s) 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2004

GLOBAL PRECIPITATION ANOMALY Global Precipitation Climatology Centre The impact of the June storm Percentage of normal (100% is normal)

More Impacts of the 2001 and Droughts Person Previously reliable and good quality water supplies (surface and groundwater) were severely affected, and some failed The number of prairie sloughs was the lowest on record in May

Census Agricultural Regions

50 40 30 20 10 0 Crop Yields Spring Wheat in Census Agricultural Region 2, Alberta Spring Wheat in Census Agricultural Region 4A, Alberta Crop Production (bu/ac) 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Barley in Census Agricultural Region 4A, Alberta 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Crop Production (bu/ac) 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 Crop Production (bu/ac) 2000 80 60 40 20 0 Barley in Census Agricultural Region 2, Alberta Crop Production (bu/ac) 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000

Insects Grasshoppers numbers were projected to be severe to very severe during the drought years

Some Economic Impacts of the 2001 and Droughts Total Canadian agricultural production loss was ~$3.6 billion for both years Gross Domestic Product fell ~$5.8 billion total for both years Employment losses > 41,000 for both years Worst year was and the hardest hit provinces were Alberta and Saskatchewan (Wheaton et al. 2005)

Crop insurance 2001/ and /2003 Crop Year Crop insurance payments exceeded $2 billion for the /2003 crop year across all of Canada (500% above the 10-year average). Highest payments were made in Saskatchewan ($1.1 billion), Alberta ($790 million), and Ontario (more than $100 million). Payments in 100s millions $2,000 $1,800 $1,600 $1,400 $1,200 $1,000 $800 $600 $400 $200 $0 $377 10-yr avg $1,000 2001- $2,000-2003 (Wheaton et al. 2005) Time period

Reduction in Gross Domestic Product & Loss** in Employment: 2001 & Droughts in Canada Region Loss ** of G.D.P. (000$) 2001 Loss ** in Employment (No. of Workers) 2001 British Columbia $0 $42,955 0 224 Prairies $1,434,619 $3,108,331 10,083 17,803 Central Canada $412,886 $228,132 4,038 1,949 Maritimes $115,122 $21,750 1,042 223 Trade-Related Impacts* $164,031 $251,840 2,474 3,578 Total Canada $2,126,658 $3,653,008 17,637 23,777 (Wheaton et al. 2005) Economics Questions: Suren Kulshreshtha E-mail: suren.kulshreshtha@usask.ca

Examples of Adaptation Strategies Water Supply new wells established, temporary water pipelines installed, new dugouts established, implemented conservation measures

Examples of Adaptation Strategies Photo source: AAFC-PFRA Livestock brought feed in, moved cattle out, sold more cattle than normal, sold cattle earlier in the year than normal, allowed cattle to graze on low production crops

Examples of Adaptation Strategies Crops seeded more drought tolerant crops, used crops as greenfeed, bought more crop insurance, decreased the amount of inputs. Photo: V. Wittrock 1996

Examples of Adaptation Strategies Photo Source: PFRA-AAFC Government Programs Crop Insurance, Water Supply Expansion Program, Farm Stress Line, etc Community Support Ducks Unlimited Canada, Hay West, Say Hay concert, etc.

Photo Source: V. Wittrock, S. Wittrock 2004 Questions?