EXOP Kidnapping Risk Overview Overview November 2014 April 2015 Page 1 of X
Kidnapping Risk Overview Introduction EXOP s Kidnapping Risk Overview provides a short global overview and trend about the kidnapping risk for foreigners and local staff of international companies and organisations. The Centre for Research & Analysis identifies three key categories of kidnappings: Personal Kidnapping Organised Criminal Kidnapping Politically Organised Kidnapping The availability of reliable statistics and absolute numbers on attempted and successfully conducted kidnappings for all countries is limited. EXOP experts include the estimated number of unreported cases into the calculation to assess the kidnapping risk level for each country/region. In addition to quantitative analysis, local expertise and in-depth expert knowledge on this subject are additionally necessary to perform an adequate overall assessment. Kidnapping Risk Overview MENA Page 3 Sub-Saharan Africa Page 4 Asia & Pacific Page 5 Europe & CIS Page 6 Americas Page 7 Focus Topic Mexico Page 9 Centre for Research & Analysis The Centre for Research & Analysis is EXOP s think tank. Long experience in countries of high risk, strong analytical capabilities, an extensive network and a keen sense of the high requirements of our clients are the pillars of our comprehensive consulting services. Our team of analysts, regional experts and risk managers provide reliable strategic analyses and forecasts in the fields of politics, security and economy that are prepared according to the industry background and interests as well as the individual expectations and enquiries of our clients. Page 2
Regional Risk Rating Kidnapping MENA 1. In Syria and Iraq, the kidnapping risk is extreme. With the Islamic State s (IS) seizure of control of large amounts of territory in Syria and Iraq, the two countries continue to be one of the most dangerous operating environments for foreign nationals in 2015. Particularly Western foreigners are high-value targets for Islamist militant groups, both for the purpose of extorting ransom as well as for political propaganda. Summary Kidnapping is a key risk to foreigners and locals working for international companies and organisations in the MENA region. Over the past six months, kidnapping incidents have most notably occurred in Syria, Libya, Yemen, Afghanistan and Algeria. Due to high levels of corporate security measures among international businesses, militant Islamists are increasingly shifting their focus to the less guarded media, NGO and tourism sectors for kidnappings. 2. In Afghanistan, the expected widening of the security void after the withdrawal of US and international troops may increase criminal and terrorist activities in the country. In particular the Sunni extremist Taliban and the Islamist insurgent al-haqqani network are expected to continue abducting local and foreign nationals alike for ransom and political purposes. However, the kidnapping risk may reduce in case of successful peace negotiations between the Taliban and the Afghan government. 3 1 2 3. There is a high kidnapping risk to foreign travellers in Algeria s northern mountainous Kabyle area. The abduction and execution of a French tourist in September 2014 by the Islamist group Jund al-khilafa was the latest prominent kidnapping case. In early 2015, some hundreds of Turkish workers were evacuated in the northern Tizi Ouzou region due to a terrorist, and possibly kidnapping, threat. In addition, criminal gangs and Islamist groups operating in Algeria s vast and scarcely controlled south pose a major kidnapping risk, particularly to foreign workers of the oil and gas industry. *Reported incidents of internationals since 2003 Page 3
Regional Risk Rating Kidnapping SSA 1. Kidnapping remains a major security risk in Nigeria. Most abductions take place in the Niger Delta, where militants kidnap expatriates and workers of the oil and gas industry on a regular basis. Kidnappings have also increased in Nigeria s Middle Belt states, notably in Kogi State, where a US missionary and several Chinese workers were taken captive in March. In the waters off the coast of the Niger Delta, Nigerian pirates are increasingly targeting the crews of oil tankers and other vessels. In northeastern Nigeria and northern Cameroon, the Islamist militant group Boko Haram has perpetrated several mass kidnappings of local villagers. 2. The Central African Republic was hit by a wave of kidnappings in early 2015. A French charity worker and a United Nations staff member were abducted in the capital Bangui in January. Moreover, several ministers and government officials were taken captive by gunmen for political reasons in Bangui and several other major cities of the country. All kidnapping victims were released afterwards. Summary Kidnapping is a key risk to foreigners and locals working for international companies and organisations in a number of countries in Sub-Saharan Africa. Over the past six months, Nigeria and the Central African Republic have accounted for the majority of significant kidnapping incidents. In Mali, Niger and Chad, kidnappings continue to pose a considerable threat to internationals. 3 1 2 3. Transnational militant Islamist groups involved in drug smuggling, terrorism and extortion activities in the western Sahel region pose a considerable and continuous kidnapping risk to internationals, most notably in Mali, Niger and Chad. Especially al-qa ida in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) and al-murabitun (formerly MOJWA) have been able to thrive due to extensive ransom payments. * *Source: EXOP Global Alert System; incidents of the past 6 months excluding high number of unreported cases and without claim to be exhaustive Page 4
Regional Risk Rating Kidnapping Asia & Pacific 1. The strong operational capabilities of militant groups as well as the generally high prevalence of violent crime contribute to the high risk of kidnapping in the Philippines. The threat level is highest in western Mindanao, the Sulu Archipelago and bordering waters with about two-thirds of the country s total kidnapping incidents. People perceived as affluent are the prime target, followed by state representatives and aid and construction workers (see chart). The region is the key area of operation of several militant organisations, including the Abu Sayyaf. Even though the group recently pledged allegiance to the Islamic State and vowed to adopt its attention-grabbing killing methods, this move has not altered the modus operandi of releasing hostages after payment. Other regions prone to kidnapping include Metro Manila and areas affected by the Maoist insurgency. Summary Kidnapping is not a key risk to foreigners and locals working with international companies in the Asia & Pacific region. While isolated cases of kidnapping for ransom involving foreigners have taken place across the region in the past few years, the Philippines and bordering Malaysian territory remains the hotspot of related incidents. India and Bangladesh also exhibit a high incidence of abductions, with perpetrators, however, primarily targeting local nationals. 2. The recent decline in kidnapping incidents in Malaysia s easternmost state Sabah indicates that enhanced maritime security measures established in 2013 serve as a deterrent to kidnappers operating from Philippine territory. Nevertheless, there remains a high kidnapping risk to tourists and businessmen in the waters and coastal areas of southeast Sabah, including the popular Semporna Islands. In addition, some recent abductions involving foreigners and locals working with international companies in other parts of the country, foremost the Greater Kuala Lumpur area, contribute to the elevated threat level in Malaysia. 2 1 *Source: EXOP Global Alert System; incidents of the past 12 months excluding a high number of unreported cases and without claim to be exhaustive Page 5
Regional Risk Rating Kidnapping Europe & CIS 1. In the separatist-held areas of eastern Ukraine, the risk of kidnapping is high for Western foreigners. Heavily armed militia groups operating semiautonomously from the separatist government may detain Westerners for days on suspicion of espionage. Western journalists and those with a perceived military or defence background are most likely to be specifically targeted. Ransom-seeking criminal groups, which have flourished in the region following the collapse of government law enforcement structures, pose an additional threat. Summary Across most of Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), the risk of kidnapping is marginal for foreigners and locals working for international companies and organisations. Eastern Ukraine is an exception, where foreigners face a high risk of kidnapping by separatists. Criminally motivated kidnappings can occur across the region, but the risk is most significant in Russia, Ukraine and parts of Central Asia. * 2. Kidnappings for ransom by criminal groups are a relatively frequent occurrence in Russia, including in Moscow and other major metropolitan areas. Several hundred cases are reported annually to police; the actual number is estimated to be significantly higher. The victims are almost always locals, who are targeted by criminals with knowledge of the victims financial resources and social background. For this reason, foreigners are rarely targeted, although the risk rises for expatriates with extensive local business and familial ties. 3 1 2 3. In Europe, kidnappings of foreign businesspeople are rare due to the generally low crime risk and the general effectiveness of law enforcement. While senior executives and their family members may be targeted for criminally motivated kidnappings, these situations are most likely to occur near their place of permanent residence, and not while travelling. *Source: Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs Page 6
Regional Risk Rating Kidnapping Americas 1. Kidnapping has been a major security issue in Venezuela for a number of years now, and the problem is growing. Official data counted 73 kidnappings throughout the first 11 weeks of 2015; 11 victims were underage. Given the high number of abductions that go unreported, actual figures in Venezuela are most likely far higher. The capital Caracas and the state of Miranda have emerged as the federal entities most affected by kidnapping in recent years. Summary The kidnapping risk remains high in many parts of Latin America. Mexico leads the list of the most affected countries (see Focus Mexico), but abductions are also a major concern in the South American countries Venezuela and Colombia as well as in the small Central American states Honduras, Guatemala and El Salvador. * 2. In Colombia, the number of reported kidnappings declined from 299 in 2013 to 288 in 2014. In early 2015, abductions reached their lowest point in recent history with 20 cases being reported in January and February a drop of almost two-thirds from the 57 cases registered in the corresponding time period in 2014. The majority of kidnappings are carried out by common criminals, increasingly for short time periods of less than 24 hours and for ransoms often not higher than 5000 euro. The guerilla groups FARC and ELN still account for a quarter of all kidnappings. Most affected are the states of Tolima and the capital Bogotá. Express kidnappings, which often go hand in hand with robberies and which do not appear in the above-mentioned figures, continue to pose a significant threat in Colombia s major cities. 2 1 * *Source: Colombian Ministry of Defence Page 7
Focus Topic Mexico
Focus Topic Mexico The Scope of the Problem Over the past couple of years, kidnapping has emerged as one of Mexico s most pressing security problems. According to Mexican authorities, the numbers have been rising continuously between 2007 and 2013; only in 2014 did official data show a decline in abductions. However, these numbers have been questioned by numerous Mexican NGOs because they do not take into account all available sources. According to the calculations of one of these groups, the number of reported kidnappings, rather than falling by 18 per cent from 1,698 in 2013 to 1,394 in 2014, instead increased by approximately 30 per cent from 2,166 to 2,818 in that particular time period. In any event, the real number of kidnappings is much higher than these numbers indicate. Mexico s national anti-kidnapping coordinator, Renato Sales Heredia, estimates that only 1 of 10 kidnappings is reported. Based on a large countrywide household survey, Mexico s National Institute of Statistics (INEGI) has suggested that the number of unreported cases is even higher and concluded that almost 132,000 kidnappings took place throughout the country in 2013. Kidnappings in Mexico since 2003 * One reason for the high number of unreported kidnappings is that most cases are never resolved or even investigated. Impunity is a large problem in Mexican law enforcement. What is more, police forces are widely perceived as being overtly corrupt. Opinion polls show that the police are the least trusted institution in the country, followed by politicians. Police officers are frequently on the payroll of criminal organisations and often are complicit in crime. Hence, many victims not only believe that reporting a kidnapping is useless but even fear that doing so could do more harm than good. *Source: Secretariado Ejecutivo del Sistema Nacional de Seguridad Pública, Secretaria de Gobernación Page 9
Focus Topic Mexico Geographic Distribution While kidnappings are underreported and the official numbers are therefore not reliable, government statistics help to understand two important developments: first, the above-described expansion of the problem in recent years; and second, the strong concentration of kidnappings in a few Mexican states. According to the official data, almost two thirds of all kidnappings occurred in 6 out of 32 federal entities; Tamaulipas a northeastern border state with the US and one of the Mexican states most torn by drug-related crime and violence accounts for almost a fifth of all cases. In general terms, kidnappings are strongly concentrated in three geographic areas: along the Gulf of Mexico (particularly in Tamaulipas, Veracruz and Tabasco) along the Pacific coast (particularly in Guerrero and Michoacán) around the capital city (particularly in Mexico State, Morelos and Mexico City) * *Source: Secretariado Ejecutivo del Sistema Nacional de Seguridad Pública, Secretaria de Gobernación Page 10
Focus Topic Mexico Number of Kidnappings per State Page 11
Focus Topic Mexico Forms Kidnapping in Mexico comes in many forms, which differ substantially in the degree of professionalism of the perpetrators, the time the victims are held in captivity and the amount of ransom demanded, among others. Professional Kidnapping of VIPs The kidnapping of VIPs requires a high degree of professionalism. It generally implies intense planning, long-term surveillance of the potential victim, the availability of one or more carefully selected hideouts, guards and the technical skills to avoid detection and apprehension during the lengthy negotiations and the handover of the ransom. Moreover, due to their high exposure, members of Mexico s small but extremely wealthy upper class generally go to great lengths to protect themselves from abductions. Therefore, professionally planned and executed kidnappings of VIPs such as the abduction of Diego Fernández de Cevallos, a former senator and presidential candidate who after more than seven months in captivity was released in December 2010 for an alleged ransom of approximately 20 million US dollars, are comparatively rare. Short-Term Abduction Largely responsible for the strong increase in kidnappings in recent years are short-term kidnappings carried out by criminal groups or cells of drugtrafficking organisations which specialise in abductions. These groups frequently hold more than one victim at a time in safe houses; they are not interested in lengthy negotiations over huge amounts of cash but rather seek to make as much money as possible in a short time. Even so, the ransom may amount to tens of thousands of euros. Victims of this form of kidnapping, while often not possessing fortunes, are in general comparatively affluent Mexicans such as local entrepreneurs, small business owners or senior public officials whose relatives are deemed able to gather the above-mentioned ransom quickly. Criminal groups engaging in short-term abductions often operate with little or no self-restraint. Victims are frequently tortured or violated, limbs are amputated, and sometimes victims are even killed although a ransom was paid. The massive number of short-term kidnappings carried out by these groups is a major reason for the strong concentration of abductions in a few Mexican states, many of which are also heavily affected by drug-related violence. Page 12
Focus Topic Mexico Express Kidnapping Express kidnappings have become a major problem in several urban centres such as Mexico City, Acapulco and Monterrey. In contrast to other types of abduction, express kidnappings do not entail negotiations with third parties. Victims are usually forced to hand out their credit cards and pin codes and remain in captivity as long as the criminals empty their bank accounts. Express kidnappings therefore often go along with robberies or emerge out of a robbery if the victim is carrying one or more credit cards with him. This form of abduction is generally not preceded by intense surveillance but rather tends to be a crime of opportunity. Victims are selected by their perceived wealth. If the maximum daily amount has been withdrawn, criminals sometimes wait for another opportunity to extract cash, which generally begins at midnight in the time zone where the credit card has been issued; the victims are only released after a second withdrawal, often within 24 hours after the abduction started. Virtual Kidnapping A virtual kidnapping does not entail a physical abduction of a person. It is actually a telephone scam in which criminals try to convince their victim that they have abducted a family member, frequently a child. Virtual kidnappings benefit from the climate of fear generated by abundant news about everyday crime and violence. This form of deception is nowhere as widespread as in Mexico, where common criminals who pass themselves off as members of one of the country s sanguinary drug cartels intimidate their victims on the telephone and make them deposit large amounts of cash for the release of family members who have never been abducted. Virtual kidnappings differ substantially in sophistication. Some criminals simply type numbers at random into their phone, hoping to find a victim that falls for the scam. Such phone calls have frequently been made from prison cells in the past. Others search social media for useful background information, such as children s names, age, sex and the school they visit, and use this knowledge to convince the victim of the authenticity of the threat. Virtual kidnappers often play short audio recordings of crying children when they call, speculating that the panicking parents may misidentify them as their own. In a more sophisticated variant, victims are isolated and convinced that they are under constant surveillance while the criminals contact their relatives and demand the payment of a ransom for their release. Page 13
Focus Topic Mexico The Virtual Kidnapping of a Spanish Businessman In December 2013, a Spanish businessman received a phone call in his hotel in the northern Mexican city Monterrey. The caller identified himself as an agent of a Mexican security department. He explained that they were about to carry out a security operation and convinced the victim to leave his room and to move to another hotel, where the criminals had already reserved a room for him. Once he arrived at this room, the businessman was told that he was being observed and that he would be killed if he hung up the phone. While no immediate contact ever existed, the criminals made their victim believe that they were watching him closely for approximately 10 hours. In the meantime, they contacted his relatives back home and told them to send 100,000 euro in small amounts via an agency specialised in money transfers. However, the relatives contacted the Spanish authorities, which, in cooperation with their Mexican counterparts, were able to localise the businessman and get him out of the hotel. Page 14
Focus Topic Mexico Target Groups The overwhelming majority of victims of both VIP kidnappings and short-term abductions are Mexicans. Originally, kidnappers mainly targeted members of the country s most affluent political and economic elite. In recent years, shortterm abductions have become more common. In both cases, however, foreigners are generally less targeted. For kidnappers, dealing with relatives in foreign countries is more complex and time-consuming, not least because it usually requires additional language knowledge. The kidnapping of foreign nationals is also likely to produce higher pressure from the ensuing manhunt. While Mexican authorities are increasingly overstrained by the sheer amount of kidnappings in the country, the involvement of foreign agencies and the media interest in the presumable kidnapping of a foreign national in Mexico would most certainly trigger strong attention from security agencies. Spanish nationals are somewhat of an exception, since language does not pose a hurdle in their case. This is one reason why Spaniards have repeatedly been targeted for more sophisticated versions of virtual kidnappings (see The Virtual Kidnapping of a Spanish Businessman, page 14). Business travellers and expatriates are mainly exposed to express kidnappings. Here, no intense planning is required, and criminals do not need to get into contact with third persons. They generally choose their victims spontaneously and based on their perceived wealth. Page 15
Kidnapping Risk Overview EXOP At a Glance German risk management consultancy firm headquartered in Constance on Lake Constance, Germany Premium services for corporate security, travel safety and project assurance Largest private analysis centre for security abroad in Western Europe Works for international corporations, major medium sized companies, development organisations and authorities Contact EXOP GmbH Byk-Gulden-Straße 24 78467 Constance, Germany Phone: +49 (0) 7531 9421666 Email: analysis@exop-group.com Page 16