Climate Adaptation and Preparedness

Climate Adaptation and Preparedness Aaron Durnbaugh, Adaptation Coordinator & Deputy Commissioner, City of Chicago Department of Environment Rahm Emanuel, Mayor

Climate Impact: Lake Michigan Decreased lake ice in winter & lower lake levels. Greater stress on water resources in times of need. Hospitals & Emergency Response More heat-related emergencies & mortalities. Changed conditions for communicable diseases. Homes Increased cooling costs & energy demand. TEMPERATURE One of the most obvious changes to come could be hotter summers and more frequent and intense heat waves. Less deep freeze periods with greater shifts at the freeze-thaw cycle could be likely. Air Quality Increased ozone days & decreased air quality. Increased respiratory ailments. Buildings Façade & structural damage. Higher peak electricity demand. Schools More heat-related dismissals. Greater need for medical response. Chicago River Reduced water quality. Changed conditions for invasive species. Roads More potholes. Increased urban heat island in built areas. Green Space Shift in plant zones. Increased threat of invasive species. Decreased biodiversity. The L, Metra, & Freight Increased pavement damage & rail buckling. 1 Energy Utilities Increased brown & blackouts. Urban Forest Decreased diversity & increased disease/pest introduction. Most impacts were drawn from: Hayhoe, K. Research Associate Professor of Atmospheric Science, Texas Tech University; Expert Reviewer for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. May 2010. Copyright City of Chicago 2011

Climate Impact: Lake Michigan Slightly decreased lake levels. Increased likelihood of storm & seiche occurrences. Hospitals & Emergency Response More storm & flood-related emergencies & postflood health risks. Changed conditions for communicable diseases. Homes Increased basement flooding. Decreased property values & increased insurance premiums. Chicago River More combined sewer overflows. Reduced water quality. Roads Flooded & impassable. PRECIPITATION Heavy rains and snow could become more frequent in winter and spring. During summer, rains may fall more heavily but less frequently, translating to more dry spells, as well. Green Space Increased storm & flooding damage. Changes in biodiversity. The L, Metra, & Freight Rain & flooding delays. Pavement & track damage. Most impacts were drawn from: Hayhoe, K. Research Associate Professor of Atmospheric Science, Texas Tech University; Expert Reviewer for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. May 2010. 2 Air Quality Increased humidity, impacting public heath. Buildings Greater stormwater volumes to manage. Schools More snow-related dismissals. Energy Utilities Downed lines & greater distribution issues. Urban Forest Increased storm damage & fallen trees. Inundated soils. Copyright City of Chicago 2011

Climate Adaptation: Lake Michigan Implement shoreline, wildlife, & water quality protection plans. Confirm infrastructure is prepared for changes in lake levels. Hospitals & Emergency Response Update the extreme weather operation plan, focusing on vulnerable populations. Add climate-sensitive disease surveillance. Homes Encourage residents to make green landscape & energy efficiency improvements. Prepare residents for before, during, & after extreme weather events. Chicago River Promote & incentivize green infrastructure to manage stormwater. Monitor threat of aquatic invasive species. Roads Pilot & implement new road materials to manage stormwater, decrease urban heat island effect, & maintain resiliency. RESILIENCY Adaptation will help reduce the impact of the changes that can be expected even if we greatly reduce emissions. Air Quality Retrofit equipment & vehicles. Promote alternative fuels & public transportation. Expand urban forest. Buildings Work with businesses & all sectors to analyze their vulnerability to climate change & take action. Green Space Implement adaptive management plans. Give land managers tools to plan for resilient landscapes. 3 Schools Educate & inform the next generation of environmental leaders. Energy Utilities Harden infrastructure & decentralize energy production. Urban Forest Research the urban heat island effect & pursue ways to cool hot spots & manage stormwater. Plant diverse, resilient tree The L, Metra, & Freight species. Ensure rail infrastructure improvements consider future climate scenarios. Intensify efforts to reduce ozoneprecursors by reducing car traffic. Increase communication during storms. Most actions were drawn from: City of Chicago Lead-by-Example work plans; internal Chicago Climate Action Plan (CCAP) Adaptation work groups; the CCAP Adaptation Advisory Group; Oliver Wyman corporate risk assessment, 2008; and, MWH, corporate risk prioritization, 2008. Updated: October 2011. Copyright City of Chicago 2011

Temperature: A warmer Chicago Fact: In a high-emissions scenario, 2010 predictions show that the Midwest could experience 45-85 days over 95 Fahrenheit by the end of the century, far more than the 31 days projected in 2007 Chicago Metropolitan Area Annual Average Temperatures Observations and projections under multiple emissions scenarios Source: Hayhoe et al. Journal of Great Lakes Research, 2010. 4

Precipitation: Wet winters & springs and dry summers Fact: In a high-emissions scenario, 2040 springs could have 20% more precipitation events and summers could have 10% fewer Midwest Seasonal Precipitation Events Projections under High Emissions Scenario Winters and Springs 2010-2039 2040-2069 2040-2069 Summers Source: Hayhoe et al. Journal of Great Lakes Research, 2010. % changes relative to a 1961-1990 average 5

What is CCAP? Our goals to reduce Chicago s greenhouse gas emissions and prepare for climate change s impacts 32.3 MMTC02e 24.2 MMTC02e 6.5 MMTC02e 1990 * From 1990 levels 25%* by 2020 6 80%* by 2050

CCAP Adaptation Evolution Progress 2007 2008 2009 2010 Understood the climate science: Assess climate impacts Assessed economic risk: Project City cost of no action at -$2.54B in highemissions Developed adaptation action framework: Prioritize actions by risk & timing Created 5 climate impacts working groups: 21 departments & agencies create 39 Tactics for 5 groups Launched CCAP: Mayor Daley Created CCAP department work plans: Departments commit to adaptation actions through work plans Defined adaptation targets: Define 3 targets Hosting Lessons Learned meetings: Improve responses to extreme weather events Adaptation Advisory Group: Provide guidance and oversight 2011 Strategic project implementation: Use risk indicators to target projects Communications : Media/PR and trusted messengers Working groups: People, Natural Environment and Built Environment 9 Copyright 2011, City of Chicago

CCAP s Adaptation Drivers Approach Model City adaptation implementation for CCAP scale-out Leverage City business as usual to serve adaptation goals Balance the need for research with the need to act Enhance collateral benefits of climate change mitigation Prioritize vulnerable communities 10 Copyright 2011, City of Chicago

Mitigation and Adaptation Nexus Example Complementary Actions Stormwater management Urban forest management Green infrastructure to capture stormwater on-site

CCAP Adaptation Target: Built Environment Current Progress Climate impacts Temperature Precipitation Infrastructure Example actions to prepare the built environment Codified high-albedo materials for roofs and streetscapes Developed a trunk sewer model for 775 miles of pipe to prioritize resources Reinvigorated catchbasin control Stormwater management: Chicago s comprehensive sewer model Existing on Rogers Rogers Ave CIP Trunk Sewer Improved Existing Trunk 12 Copyright 2011, City of Chicago

CCAP Adaptation Target: Natural Environment Current Progress Climate impacts Temperature Created the Urban Forest Agenda and the Chicago Trees Initiative Water Systems Expanded use of wetland water control structures and established natural stormwater treatment facilities (green infrastructure) Ecosystems Example actions to prepare the natural environment Enforce a local Invasive Species Ordinance for emerging hazards Chicago Trees Initiative Chicago s Urban Forest Agenda 13 Copyright 2011, City of Chicago

CCAP Adaptation Target: People Current Progress Climate impacts Temperature Health Example actions to prepare people Prioritized tree planting initiatives to mitigate urban heat island (UHI) effect Created Air Quality Action Agenda to, e.g., decrease ground level ozone CDPH seeking epidemiologist to develop heat-related illness and death surveillance system Ecosystems Developed Climate Action Plan for Nature, communicated native specie planting and habitat preservation Addressing UHI island through increased vegetation 14

Thank You Next Steps CCAP Near Term Projects and Priorities 1. Continuous Improvement Process to refine adaptation working groups and support leaders, by leveraging existing City processes and plans and momentum under new leadership 2. Use CCAP adaptation drivers to: prioritize adaptation implementation for Chicagoans most vulnerable to climate change impacts; participate in climate impacts research; and learn from other Cities best practices 3. Improve our communications and messaging to reflect both extreme and gradual impacts, performance metrics, co-benefit strategies and our ability to influence actions already underway. www.chicagoclimateaction.org 15 Copyright 2011, City of Chicago