Sustaining Nepalese garment industry after quota abolition Bijendra Man Shakya Garment Association - Nepal (GAN) Delivering on the WTO Round: A High -Level Government-Business Dialogue for Development 5 October 2005, Macao, China
The post MFA situation Impact of loss of quasi guaranteed market access overwhelming. Nepal s position marginalized: No consolidated output and supply capacity. Higher transaction cost due to geographical disadvantage. Discrimination of preferential market access. Persistent internal bottlenecks restrained cost cutting measures. Post MFA effect most pronounced in Nepal.
Garment Industries: Tumbling figure 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 1980-81 1990-91 1994-95 2000-01 2005** * As registered at GAN ** As of June 2005
US Apparel Import from Selected Asian Countries 3000000 2500000 Value '000 US$, Current Price 2000000 1500000 1000000 500000 0 China India Bangladesh Source: US Internatinal Trade Commission Sri Lanka Combodia Pakistan Nepal Jan-Feb 2004 Jan-Feb 2005
25 20 15 10 5 0 Share of Selected Asian Countries in US Apparel import (Jan-Feb 2005 against Jan-Feb 2004) China India Bangladesh Sri Lanka Source: US International Trade Commission Combodia Pakistan Nepal
Trade under different regimes USA EU CANADA MFN GSP Derogation from GSP rules of origin (1997) EBA (2001) Derogation facility extended to Nepal in 1992 and 1994, and effective until 2006. GSP under Market Access Initiative for LDCs (2003)
Preferential and non-preferential markets Two distinguished markets: Preferential and non-preferential markets. Efforts to change protected market into preferential market prior to MFA phase-out. Low preference utilization in the existing preference giving countries. However, preferential markets indicated promising signs.
Trend analysis 60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 1992-93 1992-93 1993-94 1994-95 1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 Source: TCP, NRB and GAN * Total value of apparel export in 1993-94 and 2001-02 do not include export to India. ** 2002-03 value estimated figure between July 2002 to Jun 2003, based on data available at GAN. Value of Apparel export to USA Total Value of Apparel Export Total Value of National Export
Essence of preferential market access For level playing field. To match with down trend in world apparel prices: China's average price down by 48% (2001-2004) Price declined by 58% on items interest to Nepalese traders (cotton trousers and shirts) Can help off set higher output and transaction cost. To substitute losses in markets without preference. Promising signs in EU. But? Should wait for US TRADE Act 2005?
Erosion of preferential margin Preferences not binding and subject to conditions. Lack of fabric base to restrict preference utilization. Preference margin would depend on NAMA negotiation under DDA. Output and cost efficiency in other LDCs to subside Nepal s duty advantage. Constraints to supply efficiency.
Assumption of standard costing format for apparels Description Cost per pc of garment (Men s cotton trouser) In percentage 1. Total raw material/accessories cost US $ 2.61 61.41% 2. Import expenses US $ 0.08 1.88% 3.Labor cost US $ 1. 24 29.17% 4. Export expenses + Transport US $ 0.17 4.0% 5. Financing cost US $ 0.07 1.64 6.Sales commission US $ 0.08 1.88% TOTAL COST US $ 4.25 100%
Facing post MFA challenges Exploitation of market access opportunities Two separate marketing strategies. Consolidation of production capacity Establishment of the garment processing zone (GPZ) for industry clustering. Adaptation to the changing trade environment: Capacity building and institutional arrangement for perceiving rules related to MTS and RTA/FTA. Coalition of LDCs For binding of preferential market access.
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